Post by Zack Fradella on Dec 13, 2007 19:06:26 GMT -6
The changes are already beginning across Southeast Louisiana. The first "cool front" is through and it will usher in relatively cooler temperatures for Friday. This quick shot of good feel air will be rapidly replaced by warm, humid air on Saturday. Beyond Saturday afternoon the cold arctic air envades the South, finally!
Currently, we can see our weekend weather maker developing in the Southwestern US. A strong 140kt jet max is racing down the West Coast carving out a new upper trough in the Four Corners region. This upper trough will eject out the Southwestern US tomorrow and make its way into the Central US by tomorrow night. A surface low will develop in Tx/La in response to the approaching upper trough. This surface low will be in the vicinity of Jackson, Ms by 8AM Saturday Morning with the cold front extending to the Houston area.
Very limited moisture return will keep the airmass stable, so I don't see any problems with severe weather. In fact, most of the precip should be post frontal and stay mainly over northern sections of Southeast Louisiana. Not much in the way of rainfall should be expected with this storm system. I expect frontal passage in Baton Rouge around 5PM Sat, followed by a 7PM passage in New Orleans.
Once frontal passage occurs in your area conditions will turn very windy and much colder. Expect winds 15-25mph with gusts as high as 35mph. Temperatures will be rapidly falling through Saturday Evening, so bundle-up even if your in tank tops during the day. Sunday morning will be very chilly with temperatures around 38 Northshore, 43 Southshore; but wind chills will dip into the 20's. Since I have no faith in MOS guidance during the winter months, I am going a good 5 degrees lower than MOS numbers for highs on Sunday. A few locations may top out in the low 50's, but the majority of the area will stay in the upper 40's for highs with strong CAA throughout the day. Monday morning will be the coldest thus far this winter with a widespread freeze on the Northshore, and mid 30's South of the lake. We could see a nice frost on Monday morning. Things will slowly warm-up, but I don't see 70's until late in the work week.
A quick peek towards the Christmas Holiday shows things getting quite interesting. A colder pattern takes hold next weekend and models are jumping on the idea of developing a surface low in the Gulf. Still lots of time to worry about that and things will change.
Currently, we can see our weekend weather maker developing in the Southwestern US. A strong 140kt jet max is racing down the West Coast carving out a new upper trough in the Four Corners region. This upper trough will eject out the Southwestern US tomorrow and make its way into the Central US by tomorrow night. A surface low will develop in Tx/La in response to the approaching upper trough. This surface low will be in the vicinity of Jackson, Ms by 8AM Saturday Morning with the cold front extending to the Houston area.
Very limited moisture return will keep the airmass stable, so I don't see any problems with severe weather. In fact, most of the precip should be post frontal and stay mainly over northern sections of Southeast Louisiana. Not much in the way of rainfall should be expected with this storm system. I expect frontal passage in Baton Rouge around 5PM Sat, followed by a 7PM passage in New Orleans.
Once frontal passage occurs in your area conditions will turn very windy and much colder. Expect winds 15-25mph with gusts as high as 35mph. Temperatures will be rapidly falling through Saturday Evening, so bundle-up even if your in tank tops during the day. Sunday morning will be very chilly with temperatures around 38 Northshore, 43 Southshore; but wind chills will dip into the 20's. Since I have no faith in MOS guidance during the winter months, I am going a good 5 degrees lower than MOS numbers for highs on Sunday. A few locations may top out in the low 50's, but the majority of the area will stay in the upper 40's for highs with strong CAA throughout the day. Monday morning will be the coldest thus far this winter with a widespread freeze on the Northshore, and mid 30's South of the lake. We could see a nice frost on Monday morning. Things will slowly warm-up, but I don't see 70's until late in the work week.
A quick peek towards the Christmas Holiday shows things getting quite interesting. A colder pattern takes hold next weekend and models are jumping on the idea of developing a surface low in the Gulf. Still lots of time to worry about that and things will change.