Major Winter Storm- Jan 19th

I'll play, shibumi. Here's the relevant part of my morning NWS discussion:

SINCE LOW LEVEL INSTABILITY SHOULD BE KEPT WELL SOUTH OF THE REGION WITH THIS SYSTEM SEVERE WEATHER IS NOT A WORRY. ACTUALLY...THE LARGEST THREAT MIGHT BE WINTER WEATHER. SOME GFS AND NAM MODEL SOUNDINGS ACTUALLY SHOW SOME POTENTIAL FOR SNOW/SLEET TO MIX IN WITH PRECIP EITHER LATE WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON OR THURSDAY NIGHT IN NORTHERN AREAS. PREVIOUS FORECAST INCLUDED MENTION OF MIXED PRECIP POSSIBILITY WEDNESDAY NIGHT. HOWEVER...AFTER MUCH PONDERING AND DISCUSSION WITH SURROUNDING OFFICES...I HAVE REMOVED MENTION OF WINTER PRECIP FROM THE FORECAST FOR NOW. SEEMS THAT MORE BELIEVABLE GFS SOUNDINGS SUGGESTING SOME POTENTIAL FOR WINTER PRECIP WOULD NEED HEAVY PRECIP FOR ENOUGH "DYNAMIC" COOLING TO OFFSET WARM LAYER IN THE LOWER ATMOSPHERE. FROM A MORE SEAT-OF-THE-PANTS PERSPECTIVE...IT JUST DOES NOT LOOK LIKE THERE WILL BE ENOUGH COLD AIR IN PLACE OVER THE REGION IN ADVANCE OF THE SYSTEM TO REALISTICALLY EXPECT WINTER PRECIP.

TRULY COLD AIR WILL EXIST BEHIND A LARGER DISTURBANCE AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT EXPECTED TO COME THROUGH THE AREA THURSDAY. THIS SYSTEM WILL BE LEFT WITH LITTLE MOISTURE TO WORK WITH IN THE WAKE OF THE PREVIOUS SYSTEM...BUT IT STILL COULD SQUEEZE OUT A FEW SPRINKLES. ANOTHER SUCH SCENARIO SHOULD ARISE BY FRIDAY NIGHT OR SATURDAY WHEN WINTER WEATHER AGAIN BECOMES A SMALL POSSIBILITY. PREVIOUS MODEL RUNS SUGGESTED ANOTHER GULF LOW BRINGING WIDESPREAD PRECIP AND A SERIOUS WINTER WEATHER THREAT FOR THIS TIME PERIOD...BUT NOW MODELS ARE INSISTENT ANY LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPMENT WILL REMAIN FAR SOUTH AND THUS ANY PRECIP IN OUR NECK OF THE WOODS VERY LIGHT. WE WILL CONTINUE TO WATCH THIS...BUT CHANCES OF WINTER WEATHER JUST NOT GOOD ENOUGH TO INCLUDE IN THE FORECAST FOR NOW.

Where's that "shhh" graphic?

I think the biggest problem is trying to get the REAL COLD to make it all the way down. Looking at the GFS runs over the last couple of days it seems like the deep south is protected from the real cold by a glass bubble or something.

There should be plenty of chances for moisture. But as we all know it takes that perfect combination of cold air and moisture for SNOW.

Man it's gonna be close.

Oh man! Now I'm excited again! Just the outside chance seems to be getting better for some wintry weather!
So I don't fall completely off my rocker, taking it day by day.
Still want the chance to have home made icicles! Old Man Winter, will you stop by???

Snow close, but snow far away.

My morning AFD mentions three possibilities. Here are some snippets:

The biggest question during this time frame is whether we can get any wintry precipitation to reach the ground. First off if any does occur it does not look significant at this time and will likely be contained to the extreme NE. The bufr and GFS soundings both show decent lift in the saturated column during the afternoon and early evn and there will be ice introduced into this column. So the question is whether it will remain frozen. The low levels are quiet dry at first and across the NE it is not overly warm. With the amount of lift shown in the soundings I can see precipitation being heavy enough to cause the ll to quickly cool below freezing to a few hundred feet above the ground. With that I have put chance to slight chance of light snow in the NE. Once again this will be rather insignificant as the surface temperatures will be above freezing and if snow does reach the
ground it wont be heavy enough to overcome the warm ground thus melting on contact.

Some light precipitation may accompany this cold front Thursday night. In fact...the GFS actually suggests that light snow may be possible for a brief period over portions of the arklamiss Delta Region where forecasted thermodynamic/moisture profiles are favorable.

Somewhat of a forecast dilemma concerns precipitation chances for Friday night with 00z European model (ecmwf) actually depicting the passage of a Gulf low pressure system at that time. It is certainly an outlier in digging more upstream shortwave energy into the southwestern Continental U.S....but other model
guidance from time-to-time suggests this possibility. The 00z GFS
ensemble members show enough moisture transport into the central Gulf Coast to warrant keeping a close eye on this forecast. For what it is Worth...the 00z European model (ecmwf) depiction shows thermal profiles that keep precipitation just warm enough for liquid for most places in the forecast area. In the forecast...will stick with drier GFS for now.