Post by Jason Moreland on Jul 26, 2008 4:18:15 GMT -6
I've posted a few responses....but this one probably sums it up the best so far. A member on another wx forum that just became aware of the story made the following post.
1. Yes. I had an issue with inland flooding in Alex '04 (despite it passing along the coast) too.....nothing to this extent of course. I am not the most experienced chaser, but the idea that i've never chased before is just another example of the wild speculation posted online.
2. I would have loved to chase with others from USA, but they backed out at the last second.
3. I didn't visit the Rio Grande, but was well aware of the flooding concerns beforehand. I'm not a huge fan of Joe Bastardi, but he repeatedly hypes the worst case Rio Grande/Hurricane flooding threat every time that area is threatened.
Also, for what it's worth, we spoke to several locals after it had passed. Some of the old timers had said Rio Hondo didn't flood nearly this bad in prior major hurricanes including Allen in '80 and Beulah in '67. We had incredibly bad luck in that the SW side of the eyewall continued to redevelop over land IN ADDITION to the incredibly slow movement of the hurricane itself. We were battered by the eyewall for approximately 6 hours and were well within the 14-15" rainfall swath as a result:
www.srh.noaa.gov/bro/wxevents/2008/...infalltotal.png
Had that window never given into the force of the wind, then we would have never had to worry about the 1-2 feet of water in the street in the first place. Sometimes things just happen unfortunately. The most seasoned chasers can tell you that much. Just ask Richard Horodner about the time he almost drove into the Gulf during Elena in 1985 or Mark Suddath when he lost a window or 2. Jim Leonard's most dramatic footage came when his vehicle was nearly crushed by debris in Typhoon Omar! The guys from Weathervine nearly lost their vehicles when they parked them at the MS coliseum during Katrina. A chaser can try to be as safe as one wants........but unless you stay home altogether you will never be COMPLETELY safe. It's also very easy to be highly critical of other chasers when one is sitting at home on a forum vs being in the situation along with them.
One would think I have no knowledge of hurricanes by reading the posts of others within these threads. I'll also throw this out there for kicks....I didn't underestimate Dolly leading up to landfall despite the NHC's somewhat conservative intensity forecasts from the start. I stayed in touch with multiple people (including met majors at South) over the course of the weekend and into Tuesday. I was stubborn over a Cat 2/3 landfall due to the strong upper ridging aloft that was progged by all dynamical guidance. I was also perplexed by the NHC's mention of the cool water eddy off the TX coast; it isn't all that cool. Everyone I talked with should be able to echo all of my claims.
As a hurricane forecaster, I'm very dismayed to hear that meteorology students got into trouble during this. From what little I know of this story, I have a few questions:
1. Have you ever gone hurricane chasing before?
2. If not, why not ride with someone who HAS experience chasing hurricanes? There's a myriad of logistical issues before, during, and after the hurricane that you have to be prepared for.
3. Have you ever been to the Rio Grande Valley before? For those who have not been there during record rainfall, I can tell you, it's an INCREDIBLY flood prone area.
Venturing into a place that you've never been, in conditions you've never been in (riding around in a hurricane is not the same as riding out a hurricane at home) sounds like a recipe for total disaster. A little common sense here. There's a reason we tell people that this is a VERY DANGEROUS situation.
Hurricanes should be taken VERY seriously. If you play with fire, you're going to get burned.
1. Have you ever gone hurricane chasing before?
2. If not, why not ride with someone who HAS experience chasing hurricanes? There's a myriad of logistical issues before, during, and after the hurricane that you have to be prepared for.
3. Have you ever been to the Rio Grande Valley before? For those who have not been there during record rainfall, I can tell you, it's an INCREDIBLY flood prone area.
Venturing into a place that you've never been, in conditions you've never been in (riding around in a hurricane is not the same as riding out a hurricane at home) sounds like a recipe for total disaster. A little common sense here. There's a reason we tell people that this is a VERY DANGEROUS situation.
Hurricanes should be taken VERY seriously. If you play with fire, you're going to get burned.
1. Yes. I had an issue with inland flooding in Alex '04 (despite it passing along the coast) too.....nothing to this extent of course. I am not the most experienced chaser, but the idea that i've never chased before is just another example of the wild speculation posted online.
2. I would have loved to chase with others from USA, but they backed out at the last second.
3. I didn't visit the Rio Grande, but was well aware of the flooding concerns beforehand. I'm not a huge fan of Joe Bastardi, but he repeatedly hypes the worst case Rio Grande/Hurricane flooding threat every time that area is threatened.
Also, for what it's worth, we spoke to several locals after it had passed. Some of the old timers had said Rio Hondo didn't flood nearly this bad in prior major hurricanes including Allen in '80 and Beulah in '67. We had incredibly bad luck in that the SW side of the eyewall continued to redevelop over land IN ADDITION to the incredibly slow movement of the hurricane itself. We were battered by the eyewall for approximately 6 hours and were well within the 14-15" rainfall swath as a result:
www.srh.noaa.gov/bro/wxevents/2008/...infalltotal.png
Had that window never given into the force of the wind, then we would have never had to worry about the 1-2 feet of water in the street in the first place. Sometimes things just happen unfortunately. The most seasoned chasers can tell you that much. Just ask Richard Horodner about the time he almost drove into the Gulf during Elena in 1985 or Mark Suddath when he lost a window or 2. Jim Leonard's most dramatic footage came when his vehicle was nearly crushed by debris in Typhoon Omar! The guys from Weathervine nearly lost their vehicles when they parked them at the MS coliseum during Katrina. A chaser can try to be as safe as one wants........but unless you stay home altogether you will never be COMPLETELY safe. It's also very easy to be highly critical of other chasers when one is sitting at home on a forum vs being in the situation along with them.
One would think I have no knowledge of hurricanes by reading the posts of others within these threads. I'll also throw this out there for kicks....I didn't underestimate Dolly leading up to landfall despite the NHC's somewhat conservative intensity forecasts from the start. I stayed in touch with multiple people (including met majors at South) over the course of the weekend and into Tuesday. I was stubborn over a Cat 2/3 landfall due to the strong upper ridging aloft that was progged by all dynamical guidance. I was also perplexed by the NHC's mention of the cool water eddy off the TX coast; it isn't all that cool. Everyone I talked with should be able to echo all of my claims.
