Post by rnam30 on Sept 7, 2008 17:47:48 GMT -6
Somebody please correct me if I am wrong, but looking at the forecast point for Friday at 2 pm puts the center of Ike a good 150 miles off the coast of Louisiana. Currently, TS force winds only extend 145 miles from the center. With the exception of extreme coastal areas, I would expect (most of LA, actually) SE Louisiana to receive very little impact from Ike as it stands now. This is a good thing.
I know all about how things can turn at the last minute and we never know what hurricanes can do, etc., etc. And of course, emotions are heightened almost to excitement when the storm is heading to us. Any one of us "weather-freaks" who denies that isn't being 100% honest. Then we realize it may very well go somewhere else, and the "but you never know..it's not over yet" stuff comes out. But this lack of optimism was not present when Gustav was heading right for us last week. It was all doom and gloom for us..nobody was saying, "oh, it's not over yet...texas might get it after all, storms do unexpected things...etc, etc."
Is anybody getting what I am saying?
I am just saying I have seen a little more wishcasting the last few weeks than normal from everyone. I have come to this board almost daily since its inception and was on the wwl boards before that. I don't post much, but that doesn't make me any less informed. And more importantly, I have seen other boards where this mentality has taken over to the point of them being useless for any real scientific value. I don't want to see that happen here.
I'll probably get flamed to Saturn for this, but I just had to speak.
The reason you would get flamed is the passive aggressive way you posted. I see a lot of Ying/Yang posting as I call it. I see several people who call it in their professional or advanced level meteorological opinions. Then there are some who have some knowledge and ask a lot of questions trying to learn. Then there are those who lurk and post few and far between. There is not one single person on this board that I have ever seen "Wishcast" ANY storm to Louisiana not that it would matter anyway. No one has the power to control anything these storms do so why bother.
Also the NHC nailed Gustav for the most part so there was very little doubt it was coming here from at least 5 days out. That's why you didn't see all the maybe it will change posts. This storm is very different and has had the models confused for a few days. There is way more uncertainty with this one as compared to Gustav. If you are as informed as you say then you would have seen the simple answer which is that every storm acts differently and some are easier to predict than others.
Oh and for the record I see Opus and either the Yin or Yang to most posters. He is a refreshing optimist and you are correct that a lot of times people focus on the negative aspects of these storms. Such is human nature.
Soupbone, your point is well taken, if not completely agreed with. I've been called many things, but passive aggressive has never been one of them. I was commenting not on anyone's particular level of knowledge, but more the pattern of "behavior" regarding the timing of posts, emotional intensity of the posters and level of agreement with officials forecasts in relation to how close SELA is to being a target, but maybe I read too much into the whole thing. I have a lot of respect for many posters on this forum, please do not think otherwise. That is precisely why I said what I did.
But I think I got my point across so I will leave it at that. And if the whole trajectory of Ike changes as it moves over Cuba (IMO, the biggest chance for a track change) and ends up right on top of me, I promise to buy everyone a beer in 5 years when I crawl my way out.
