Severe Weather Discussion For 2/27 & 2/28

I wonder if we'll get a moderate risk out of this tonight...

I'm smack in the purple zone in the above graphic...which I made too small. Speaking of surprises...it just rained here. Kind of weird since it wasn't in the forecast. It will be interesting if there are similar conditions tomorrow with some added instability.

Tomorrow looks like a MOD risk day for central Mississippi, imo.

Latest from JAN:

THINGS WILL BEGIN TO TAKE A TURN AFTER MIDNIGHT TONIGHT...AND
PARTICULARLY AROUND DAY BREAK FRIDAY MORNING ACROSS MY NORTH. NOT A
WHOLE LOT HAS CHANGED IN THE THINKING AS TO HOW THINGS APPEAR TO PAN
OUT FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY NIGHT. SEVERE PARAMETERS CONTINUE TO BE
RATHER IMPRESSIVE WITH THIS SETUP AS WELL. JUST TO NAME A FEW...ML
CAPE VALUES ARE PROGGED TO RANGE FROM 800-1200 J/KG AND PERHAPS
HIGHER...STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES ON THE ORDER OF 7-8
C/KM...INCREASING LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR...AND WITH THE AREA BECOMING
FIXED IN THE FAVORABLE UPPER LEFT QUADRANT OF AN UPPER LEVEL
JET...ALL MODES OF SEVERE WEATHER STILL APPEAR POSSIBLE WITH THIS
SCENARIO. IN ADDITION...MOST OF THE ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO LINE UP
ON AN ALMOST WEST SOUTHWEST TO EAST NORTHEAST TRAJECTORY ALONG OR
NEAR THE FRONT. BECAUSE OF THIS...WE COULD SEE THE TRAINING OF
SEVERAL STORMS ACROSS THE SAME AREAS WHICH COULD LEAD TO THE
POTENTIAL FOR SOME HEAVY RAIN...WHICH IN TURN COULD LEAD TO SOME
FLOODING.

WITH ALL OF THAT SAID...LATE TONIGHT THE TAIL END OF A SHORTWAVE
SWINGING ACROSS THE MIDWEST WILL IMPACT THE NORTHERN PORTION OF THE
FORECAST AREA ALLOWING THE CAP OVER THIS AREA TO BEGIN TO ERODE.
MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA WILL REMAIN DRY THROUGH THE NIGHT...BUT WE
COULD SEE SOME WARM ADVECTION TYPE SHOWERS DEVELOP ACROSS THE NORTH
AROUND MIDNIGHT AS A RESULT OF INCREASING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND THE
BEFORE MENTIONED ERODING CAP.

FROM EARLY FRIDAY MORNING ON THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT WE`LL SEE THE
GREATEST POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE WEATHER. STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS
COULD BEGIN TO MOVE INTO MY NORTHWEST ZONES EARLY FRIDAY MORNING AS
THE COLD FRONT SITS JUST TO THE NORTHWEST OF THIS AREA WHILE AN AREA
OF ASCENT LIFTS NORTHEAST ALONG THE FRONT. THIS COULD LEAD TO A
CLUSTER OF STORMS DEVELOPING AND AFFECTING THE DELTA REGION AROUND
DAYBREAK FRIDAY.

FROM THERE THE FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY DROP FURTHER SOUTH INTO
AN INCREASINGLY UNSTABLE AIRMASS WHILE WAVES OF ASCENT STREAM ALONG
IT. DURING THE PEAK HEATING HOURS OF THE DAY...STORMS COULD DEVELOP
SOUTH OF THE FRONT WHICH IN TURN COULD ALSO BECOME STRONG TO
SEVERE. THIS WILL ALLOW THE THREAT OF SEVERE WEATHER TO ALSO SHIFT
FURTHER SOUTH. AT PRESENT IT APPEARS THE BULK...IF NOT ALL...OF THE
STRONG TO SEVERE ACTIVITY WILL REMAIN MAINLY ALONG AND NORTH OF THE
INTERSTATE 20 CORRIDOR. ALL THE MODELS ARE INDICATING A FAIRLY
STOUT CAP OVER AREAS SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 20 LIMITING CONVECTION
ACROSS THAT AREA.

JAN:

NEARLY ALL WX PARAMETERS ARE SIMILAR TO WHAT HAS BEEN ADVERTISED.
LOOK FOR MLCAPE VALUES TO INCREASE TO BETWEEN 800-1200 J/KG WITH
LI`S -4 TO -6. LAPSE RATES WILL BE RUNNING 7-8 C/KM WITH VERTICAL
TOTALS 27-29C. WITH ALL THIS IN PLACE...ANYTIME WE HAVE CONVECTION
IT BECOMES SEVERE. THE BIG QUESTION MARK IS LOW LEVEL SHEAR. MODELS
ARE WEAKENING IT DURING THE DAY...ESPECIALLY NEAR THE SLOW
MOVING/STALLED SFC FRONT. HOWEVER...NOT SURE IF THE MODELS WILL BE
ABLE TO PICK UP ON THAT DETAIL...BUT EVEN OUR HI RES LOCAL WRF RUNS
SHOW THAT. THE BEST LOW LEVEL SHEAR LOOKS TO STAY SOMEWHAT AWAY FROM
THE SFC BOUNDARY...GENERALLY NEAR I-20 OR JUST TO THE SOUTH. THE
PROBLEM IS...THAT AREA WILL LIKELY STAY CAPPED. THE DEEP LAYER SHEAR
IS GOOD 40-50KTS AND SUPPORTIVE OF SUPERCELL STORMS. ACTUALLY...ALL
LOCAL HI RES WRF RUNS AS WELL AS NCEPS 4 KM WRF RUNS SHOW MULTIPLE
SUPERCELL STORMS TODAY ALONG WITH CLUSTERS OF STORMS. THIS HAS
INCREASED MY CONFIDENCE A GREAT DEAL WRT TO STORM MODE.
ADDITIONALLY...NEARLY ALL STORMS SHOW DEVIANT MOTION TO THE ESE.
THAT HAS BIG IMPACTS ON WHAT AREAS COULD BE HIT BY STORMS. I WILL
ORIENT THE PROB HAZARDS AS WELL AS THE GRAPHICAST TO SHOW THE SVR
RISK TODAY WITH A SUBTLE ESE ORIENTATION INSTEAD OF DUE W-E OR
SW-NE.

AS I STATED EARLIER...THE CORRIDOR BETWEEN I-20 AND HWY 82 LOOKS TO
BE THE MAIN REGION. LOOK FOR SUPERCELLS TO PRODUCE QUARTER TO
GOLFBALL SIZED HAIL WITH SOME STONES LARGE THAN THAT IF A STRONG
MESO CAN BE GENERATED. DMG WINDS WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE ALONG WITH
SOME TORNADOES. I CAN SEE THE AREA E OF I-55 AND BETWEEN HWY 82 AND
I-20 HAVING THE GREATEST RISK FOR TORNADOES AS THAT REGION WILL BE
WHERE MATURE STORMS AND POTENTIALLY LONG LIVED MESO`S WILL MOVE
THROUGH. ADDITIONALLY...THE BEST LOW LEVEL SHEAR IS FOCUSED THERE
ALONG WITH THE COLDEST TEMPS ALOFT AND MOVE FAVORABLE UPPER JET. A
LONE STRONG TOR CANNOT BE RULED OUT AS WELL...BUT FOR THAT TO
OCCUR...A VERY STRONG UPDRAFT WILL HAVE TO BE GENERATED TO OVERCOME
THE SOMEWHAT TAME LOW LEVEL SHEAR.

A tornado has been confirmed just southeast of Birmingham in Chelsea, AL. Trees and power lines are down.