Post by tigergirl on Feb 1, 2009 12:40:23 GMT -6
| 000 FXUS64 KJAN 011640 AAA AFDJAN AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS 1040 AM CST SUN FEB 1 2009 .DISCUSSION...HAVE MADE SOME ADJ FOR TODAY...MAINLY IN THE HOURLY TEMP DEPARTMENT WITH SOME TWEAKS UPWARD FOR HIGHS TODAY. MORNING SOUNDING SUPPORT A EXTREMELY FAST WARM UP AND THAT IS OCCURRING WITH MID TO UPPER 50S BEING REPORTED AS OF 10 AM. WE HAVE ACTUALLY HIT 60 AS OF 1030 HERE AT THE OFFICE AND LOWER 60S SHOULD EASILY BE MET BETWEEN 11 AM AND NOON. THE WARM UP WILL SLOW BY AFTERNOON WITH ALL SITES REACHING 65 TO 68 DEGREES. I HAVE ALSO ADJ SKY COVER A BIT TO ALLOW FOR SOME SCT/BKN CLOUDS MOVING IN FROM THE SW/W FASTER. ANY ON SET OF PRECIP LOOKS GOOD AND SHOULD CONTINUE TO BE POSSIBLE FOR THE SW PORTION AFTER 20Z. THE OTHER ADJ WERE FOR HOURLY TEMPS TONIGHT INTO THE FIRST PART OF MON. I SLOWED THE COOL DOWN B/C OF THE WAA PATTERN AND CLOUD COVER. I ALSO ADJ POPS AND WX FOR EARLY MON. THIS WAS MAINLY TO LOWER THE NW AS THE SLIGHTLY FASTER TREND SEEMS MORE LIKELY AS IS SUPPORTED BY ALL OF THE NEW GUID. ACTUALLY...THE LATEST GFS IS EXTREMELY FAST AND ONLY HAS PRECIP ACROSS THE SE 1/3 MON MORNING. I THINK THAT IS TOO FAST AND HAVE TRENDED THE FORECAST TO BE MORE OF A BLEND OF THE NAM/GFS. ALL PRECIP LOOKS TO BE OUT OF THE CWA BY 18-19Z WITH CLEARING FOLLOWING. ELEVATED INSTABILITY STILL LOOKS OK WITH DECENT LAPSE RATES COVERING MOST OF THE CWA TONIGHT. THIS WILL SUPPORT THE ISO THUNDER POTENTIAL AND AT LEAST SOME SMALL CHANCES FOR PEA TO PENNY SIZED HAIL. BEST FORCING APPEARS TO BE ALONG THE SFC FRONT AND ANY DECENT CONVECTION LOOKS TO OCCUR ACROSS THE W HALF AND HWY 84 CORRIDOR. WILL LIKELY ADD A SMALL BLURB ABOUT THE SMALL HAIL POTENTIAL IN THE NEXT HWO. /CME/ && |
