Keep in mind that the official "landing point" should not be the focus; what should be the focus is that there is model consistency of trending west. I'm thinking the NHC SHOULD move the track westward at the 4:00 a.m. advisory. If the Euro stayed its course or moved further east, then there'd be cause for dancing. I do take comfort that it did not put us in the bulls eye.
"My name is Jim, but my friends call me...............Jim."
So the NHC is probably going to split up the difference between the GFS and ECMWF, but lean more to the right for now, you know how conservative they are about doing a big swing of its track, hurricane watches will probably be put up for FL Panhandle west to MS river later today.
Continuity. I strongly doubt the NHC will shift the center line to biloxi ... I suspect they'll go near Mobile Bay, then on the next advisory if the models are unchanged they will take it to nearer SE LA.
When it comes to which one to believe, how do we go against the GFS? It has been right all season. We have been second guessing it all year and it turns out to be right. Euro has been the one that has less definitive. Guess we will have to see, just find it peculiar that the NHC wants to put so much stock in it when it clearly was willing to throw it out when it was the west outlier.