I see the ensembles keep shifting west. If i remember correctly did someone say that some times they over compensate a shift and may shift back in the opposite direction? Just trying to see if that is correct or not. Thanks
By now, I think it's fairly obvious that it is NOT going to go east of the metro area.
Looking less likely, but I'm curious to see where the centers stack themselves. Will the llc take a little jump north to under the mlc? Could have implications down the road. Nothing huge, but it could make a difference. Looks super on satellite...not so much on radar.
By now, I think it's fairly obvious that it is NOT going to go east of the metro area.
I think that's still up in the air. I don't say it goes to way over to Florida, but its still possible what the Euro is seeing is real. Now if it starts travelling largely west tonight, yea any east scenario is probably impossible.
I see the ensembles keep shifting west. If i remember correctly did someone say that some times they over compensate a shift and may shift back in the opposite direction? Just trying to see if that is correct or not. Thanks
Well, once again we'll be watching the 00z runs tonight, but by tomorrow, I think we'll watching live storm movement rather than analyzing models. It's getting close to nowcasting time.
Hammond, LA NWS COOP ID: 16-7425-08 CoCoRaHs ID: LA-TG-23
![](https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/storm_graphics/AT02/refresh/AL022022_5day_cone_no_line_and_wind+png/204710_5day_cone_no_line_and_wind.png")
