TROPICAL STORM ISAAC Discussion Thread #14

tsmith
Category 1

Posts: 178

TROPICAL STORM ISAAC Discussion Thread #14 Aug 28, 2012 1:26:06 GMT -6

Post by tsmith on Aug 28, 2012 1:26:06 GMT -6

Aug 28, 2012 0:53:03 GMT -6 jgumm said:

I'm up...looking at the satellite pics. Holy dry air batman! This thing can't shake it. As long as that continues, big strengthening will not occur. Track looks good...don't see that changing. All intensity guidance still brings it to a middling cat 1, but nothing stronger. NHC's forecast of going a little above that is just to cover themselves.

I'm now off to focus on what happens once it comes inland.

Of course I wasn't actually going to sleep... haha! Anyway, John thanks for sticking with us. I go way back to the WWL forum days myself, and I remember you were pretty active in those days on the forum. Do you remember way back then we used to speculate about this super double secret Florida State model? What ever happened to that?

But anyway, thanks for sticking around and helping us out. Wow it certainly could have been much worse wind-wise. Although here in Lakeview, every time my central air turns off, I can hear a constant wind through the trees. We definitely have a sustained wind at this time. I just went outside and it really isn't very gusty here... just a steady wind ranging between 15-20 mph at the moment.

Keep up the input John... it is appreciated. Hope you've been well.

julieo - Patterson GCWX Supporter Posts: 376	TROPICAL STORM ISAAC Discussion Thread #14 Aug 28, 2012 1:33:51 GMT -6 Select Post Deselect Post Link to Post Back to Top Post by julieo - Patterson on Aug 28, 2012 1:33:51 GMT -6 They just showed the Euro on TWC.... It went west.... Oh Lordy be! She was wondering if the NHC would make any changes or considerations of that shift.

tsmith Category 1 Posts: 178	TROPICAL STORM ISAAC Discussion Thread #14 Aug 28, 2012 1:37:57 GMT -6 Select Post Deselect Post Link to Post Back to Top Post by tsmith on Aug 28, 2012 1:37:57 GMT -6 I don't think the NHC is too thrilled with the Euro right now... Doubt they would change anything at this time

julieo - Patterson GCWX Supporter Posts: 376	TROPICAL STORM ISAAC Discussion Thread #14 Aug 28, 2012 1:42:48 GMT -6 Select Post Deselect Post Link to Post Back to Top Post by julieo - Patterson on Aug 28, 2012 1:42:48 GMT -6 You are probably right... The Euro could have invented the windshield wipers!! Left right left right! Hope it's wrong..I am in St. Mary Parish...

504canes Tropical Low Posts: 38	TROPICAL STORM ISAAC Discussion Thread #14 Aug 28, 2012 3:07:02 GMT -6 Select Post Deselect Post Link to Post Back to Top Post by 504canes on Aug 28, 2012 3:07:02 GMT -6 Is anyone awake

Briella - Houma
Category 5

Posts: 8,421

TROPICAL STORM ISAAC Discussion Thread #14 Aug 28, 2012 3:08:07 GMT -6 via the ProBoards App

Post by Briella - Houma on Aug 28, 2012 3:08:07 GMT -6

Still a TS

4:00 AM CDT Tue Aug 28
Location: 27.5ÃƒÂ‚Ã‚Â°N 88.1ÃƒÂ‚Ã‚Â°W
Moving: NW at 12 mph
Min pressure: 977 mb
Max sustained: 70 mph

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 28/0900Z 27.5N 88.1W 60 KT 70 MPH
12H 28/1800Z 28.5N 89.1W 70 KT 80 MPH
24H 29/0600Z 29.5N 90.1W 75 KT 85 MPH...NEAR THE COAST
36H 29/1800Z 30.3N 90.9W 55 KT 65 MPH...INLAND
48H 30/0600Z 31.4N 91.5W 45 KT 50 MPH...INLAND
72H 31/0600Z 34.5N 92.5W 25 KT 30 MPH...INLAND
96H 01/0600Z 38.0N 91.5W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
120H 02/0600Z 40.5N 87.0W 15 KT 15 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW

Sent from my iPhone using ProBoards app

Last Edit: Aug 28, 2012 3:16:13 GMT -6 by Briella - Houma

Briella
Helicity - The Weather Superstore www.helicity.co

504canes Tropical Low Posts: 38	TROPICAL STORM ISAAC Discussion Thread #14 Aug 28, 2012 3:15:38 GMT -6 Select Post Deselect Post Link to Post Back to Top Post by 504canes on Aug 28, 2012 3:15:38 GMT -6 This thing is unbelievable

Deleted

Posts: 0

TROPICAL STORM ISAAC Discussion Thread #14 Aug 28, 2012 3:16:58 GMT -6

Post by Deleted on Aug 28, 2012 3:16:58 GMT -6

Good morning yall! It's breezy way over in Lafayette. Must be blowing pretty good back in NOLA?

Can yall post a link to a good storm surge map that shows in feet not "probabilities of over 2' feet" or whatever the NHC has.

Brad Panovich posted one last night on FB.... just trying to figure out how much we will get on west bank.

But then we have to add rainfall on top of that, right???

Stay safe everyone!

suncindy2 GCWX Supporter Posts: 391	TROPICAL STORM ISAAC Discussion Thread #14 Aug 28, 2012 3:38:32 GMT -6 Select Post Deselect Post Link to Post Back to Top Post by suncindy2 on Aug 28, 2012 3:38:32 GMT -6 Just work up.. It's quite breezy in Kenner, LA
	PONCHATOULA, LA

suncindy2 GCWX Supporter Posts: 391	TROPICAL STORM ISAAC Discussion Thread #14 Aug 28, 2012 3:43:23 GMT -6 Select Post Deselect Post Link to Post Back to Top Post by suncindy2 on Aug 28, 2012 3:43:23 GMT -6 Everyone must still be asleep before this storm moves through. Tonight will probably be tough to get some sleep with Isaac moving into the area... Be safe everyone!
	PONCHATOULA, LA

suncindy2 GCWX Supporter Posts: 391	TROPICAL STORM ISAAC Discussion Thread #14 Aug 28, 2012 3:58:23 GMT -6 Select Post Deselect Post Link to Post Back to Top Post by suncindy2 on Aug 28, 2012 3:58:23 GMT -6 Hello?
	PONCHATOULA, LA

ndg GCWX Supporter Posts: 9,591	TROPICAL STORM ISAAC Discussion Thread #14 Aug 28, 2012 4:01:00 GMT -6 Select Post Deselect Post Link to Post Back to Top Post by ndg on Aug 28, 2012 4:01:00 GMT -6 Let me see if I get this right, pressure of 977mb still a tropical storm, even though they found winds of 90 mph at flight level? Models trended to the west once again? What a bad morning to wake up to.

suncindy2
GCWX Supporter

Posts: 391

TROPICAL STORM ISAAC Discussion Thread #14 Aug 28, 2012 4:06:21 GMT -6

Post by suncindy2 on Aug 28, 2012 4:06:21 GMT -6

Aug 28, 2012 4:01:00 GMT -6 ndg said:

Let me see if I get this right, pressure of 977mb still a tropical storm, even though they found winds of 90 mph at flight level?
Models trended to the west once again?
What a bad morning to wake up to.

Never have seen this with a storm so low in pressure and the winds don't increase much.. Very strange.

PONCHATOULA, LA

ndg
GCWX Supporter

Posts: 9,591

TROPICAL STORM ISAAC Discussion Thread #14 Aug 28, 2012 4:06:35 GMT -6

Post by ndg on Aug 28, 2012 4:06:35 GMT -6

Recon better find the hurricane force winds at the surface, because when this 977mb hurricane at H85 settles down to the ground is going to catch people offguard.
I am sure people are waking up this morning with a false sense of security. Like I said last night the dry air slot was going to be rotating and was going to be in the NW quadrant of the storm as it approaches, people are probably saying this is not bad.

tigergirl Moderator Director of Finances Posts: 5,109 Staff Member	TROPICAL STORM ISAAC Discussion Thread #14 Aug 28, 2012 4:13:13 GMT -6 Select Post Deselect Post Link to Post Back to Top Post by tigergirl on Aug 28, 2012 4:13:13 GMT -6 What worries me is he might pull a Cindy.
	GCWX Director of Finances Theresa Thomassie

stormydds: Thanks for your response. I felt that is the case. that's too bad. Has there been any peer reviewed papers on the LRC hypothesis? Nov 4, 2022 14:01:51 GMT -6

Zack Fradella: Not sure, the LRC is something that takes a lot of work to follow and keep up with. It's not as easy as looking at the parameters and making a forecast. This deters many from even giving it a chance. Also, there is some doubt from the weather world. Nov 4, 2022 3:38:49 GMT -6

stormydds: Zack, a friend had a meeting in Lafayette which Rob Perillo spoke.He asked him why the LRC is not used to forecast hurricanes by NOAA.His answer was that Lezak won't share the info.I saw the podcast you and David made with Gary.He seemed open.What gives? Nov 3, 2022 14:39:19 GMT -6

TROPICAL STORM ISAAC Discussion Thread #14

Post by tsmith on Aug 28, 2012 1:26:06 GMT -6

Post by julieo - Patterson on Aug 28, 2012 1:33:51 GMT -6

Post by tsmith on Aug 28, 2012 1:37:57 GMT -6

Post by julieo - Patterson on Aug 28, 2012 1:42:48 GMT -6

Post by 504canes on Aug 28, 2012 3:07:02 GMT -6

Post by Briella - Houma on Aug 28, 2012 3:08:07 GMT -6

Post by 504canes on Aug 28, 2012 3:15:38 GMT -6

Post by Deleted on Aug 28, 2012 3:16:58 GMT -6

Post by suncindy2 on Aug 28, 2012 3:38:32 GMT -6

Post by suncindy2 on Aug 28, 2012 3:43:23 GMT -6

Post by suncindy2 on Aug 28, 2012 3:58:23 GMT -6

Post by ndg on Aug 28, 2012 4:01:00 GMT -6

Post by suncindy2 on Aug 28, 2012 4:06:21 GMT -6

Post by ndg on Aug 28, 2012 4:06:35 GMT -6

Post by tigergirl on Aug 28, 2012 4:13:13 GMT -6

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