Strong To Severe Storms Possible Tonight/Tomorrow

Latest SPC outlook for tomorrow from this morning:

The new SPC Day 1 Outlook has expanded the Slight Risk to the south with the highest threat being damaging winds.

Latest SPC Day 1 area has not changed, however they have expanded the 2% Tornado Risk to the south to include the Baton Rouge area and the north shore parishes.

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
408 PM CST WED DEC 19 2012

.SHORT TERM...
LATEST SAT IMAGERY SHOWS CLOUDS BEGINNING TO INCREASE OVER
PORTIONS OF WESTERN LOUISIANA THIS AFTERNOON. EXPECT CLOUDS TO
INCREASE ACROSS THE IMMEDIATE FORECAST AREA THIS EVENING. A PRETTY
DECENT SOUTH TO SOUTHEASTERLY WIND WILL PREVAIL THROUGH TONIGHT
AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT THAT IS CURRENTLY OVER WEST CENTRAL TEXAS.
THIS FRONT WILL BE REALLY MOVING OUT OF TEXAS AND WILL BE ON OUR
DOORSTEP BY 12Z TOMORROW MORNING BRINGING WITH IT SHOWERS AND
PERHAPS A FEW STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS. THESE SOUTHERLY
WINDS WILL INCREASE THE MOISTURE CONTENT AVAILABLE IN THE
ATMOSPHERE AS THE FRONT APPROACHES. THE RETURN FLOW TODAY HAS BEEN PRETTY
GOOD GETTING THE HIGHER DEWPOINTS INTO THE AREA AS THIS MORNING
DEWPOINTS WERE IN THE LOW TO MID 40S AND CURRENTLY DEWPOINTS ARE
IN THE LOW TO MID 60S. MOISTURE RECOVERY WAS ONE OF THE QUESTIONS
LEFT ON THE BOARD AS FAR AS THE SEVERE THREAT GOES FOR TONIGHT.

THE STORM PREDICTION CENTER STILL MAINTAINS A SLIGHT RISK FOR THE
NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA FOR TONIGHT. SOME OF THE SHORT RANGE
MODELS HAVE SHOWN A LITTLE BIT MORE INSTABILITY AVAILABLE LATE
TONIGHT INTO TOMORROW MORNING...PUSHING AROUND THE 800 J/KG TO
1000 J/KG RANGE. THE MAIN THREAT WITH THIS SYSTEM WILL BE THE
STRONG STRAIGHT LINE WINDS THAT WILL BE ASSOCIATED WITH THE COLD
FRONT. MODEL SOUNDINGS SHOW WINDS APPROACHING THE 40 TO 45 KNOT
RANGE AT 950 MB OR AROUND 3000 FEET AND WITH THAT BEING SAID ANY
GOOD OR DEEPER CONVECTION WILL MORE THAN LIKELY BRING THOSE STRONG
WINDS TO THE SURFACE WITH EASE. RIGHT NOW NOT EXPECTING VERY TALL
OR DEEP CONVECTION BUT...WITH THOSE WINDS JUST OFF THE SURFACE YOU
COULD GET SOME DAMAGING WINDS WITH MUCH MORE SHALLOW CONVECTION.
THIS WILL NEED TO BE WATCHED AS STORMS DEVELOP. STILL EXPECTING A
SQUALL LINE TO DEVELOP AND PUSH THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA TOMORROW
MORNING. THIS LINE TOO WILL BE ABLE TO MIX DOWN SOME STRONG WINDS
AS WELL. WITH ALL OF THAT BEING SAID...WILL CARRY CATEGORICAL POPS
AFTER MIDNIGHT THROUGH TOMORROW MORNING.

451 PM CST WED DEC 19 2012

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST
LOUISIANA...SOUTH MISSISSIPPI AND THE ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT

STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE AFTER MIDNIGHT
TONIGHT AS A COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE AREA. THERE IS A SLIGHT
RISK OF SEVERE STORMS NORTH AND WEST OF A GULFPORT MISSISSIPPI
TO NEW ORLEANS TO DONALDSONVILLE LINE. THE MAIN THREAT IS
DAMAGING WINDS FROM STORMS.

SOUTH WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE ON THE COASTAL WATERS THIS
EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. AS A RESULT...A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY HAS
BEEN ISSUED FOR THE COASTAL WATERS OVERNIGHT WITH THE EXCEPTION
OF THE TIDAL LAKES AND MISSISSIPPI SOUND...WHERE SMALL CRAFT
SHOULD EXERCISE CAUTION.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY

BEHIND THE FRONTAL PASSAGE THURSDAY MORNING...WINDS WILL
STRENGTHEN SIGNIFICANTLY...MAINLY OVER AREAS SOUTH OF LAKE
PONTCHARTRAIN AND OVER THE COASTAL WATERS. A WIND ADVISORY WILL BE
IN EFFECT FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST LOUISIANA SOUTH OF LAKE
PONTCHARTRAIN FOR THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT. GALE
WARNINGS WILL BE IN EFFECT THURSDAY AFTERNOON INTO FRIDAY MORNING
FOR THE COASTAL WATERS WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THE TIDAL LAKES AND
MISSISSIPPI SOUND...WHERE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES WILL BE IN
EFFECT.

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE CHRISTMAS EVE AND
CHRISTMAS DAY. A FEW STORMS MAY BE STRONG WITH GUSTY WINDS.
DETAILS ON EXACT TIMING AND STRENGTH OF THIS SYSTEM WILL BECOME
BETTER DEFINED OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS.

South shore is now slight risk:

They must be thinking we'll see some renegade storms ahead of the line that may spin up a brief tornado.