Post by 99lsfm2 on Jan 9, 2013 13:09:35 GMT -6
SATELLITE PRECIPITATION ESTIMATES..DATE/TIME 01/09/13 1829Z
SATELLITE ANALYSIS BRANCH/NESDIS---NPPU---TEL.301-683-1404
LATEST DATA USED: GOES-13 1745Z JBN
.
LOCATION...MISSISSIPPI...LOUISIANA...TEXAS...
.
ATTN WFOS...JAN...LIX...LCH...SHV...HGX...FWD...CRP...EWX...BRO...
ATTN RFCS...LMRFC...WGRFC...
.
EVENT...CONVECTION AFFECTING COASTAL AND SERN TX/LA
.
SATELLITE ANALYSIS AND TRENDS...LATEST GOES IR/VIS IMAGERY SHOWS
CONVECTION MOVING NNEWD FROM THE GULF OF MEXICO AND CONTINUING TO
AFFECT PORTIONS OF SERN TX/LA ATTM. CLOUD TOPS STILL SHOWING A STRONG
COOLING/EXPANDING TREND IN IR ACROSS SERN TX/SWRN LA WHERE BEST SFC
CONVERGENCE/UL DIVERGENCE HAS BEEN TAKING PLACE. HOWEVER, STRONGEST
CONVECTION/HEAVIEST RAIN RAIN RATES PROBABLY IS REMAINING JUST OFFSHORE
WHERE CELL MERGERS HAVE BEEN OCCURRING/OVERSHOOTING TOPS HAVE BEEN
OBSERVED IN VIS IMAGERY. STILL STILL LOOKS LIKE RAIN RATES OF AT LEAST
1-2"/HR MAYBE OCCURRING WITH THE MOST INTENSE CELLS/HEAVIEST POCKETS OF
RAIN ACROSS SERN TX/SW LA BASED ON SFC OBS. GIVEN OVERALL SLOW MOVEMENT
AND POSSIBILITY OF SOME TRAINING, COULD SEE ANOTHER 1-2" OF RAIN THE
NEXT 3-4 HRS ACROSS PARTS OF SERN TX/SWRN LA.
.
FARTHER TO THE SW OVER DEEP SOUTH TEXAS/LOWER RIO GRANDE VALLEY, SEEING
SOME MORE CONVECTION MOVE NNEWD FROM NRN MEXICO AS YET ANOTHER SHORTWAVE
SWINGS NNEWD ACROSS THE REGION. THIS CONVECTION MAY PRODUCE SOME BRIEF
HEAVY DOWNPOURS ACROSS CAMERON/HIDALGO COUNTIES NWD ALONG THE COAST
THE NEXT FEW HRS. HOWEVER, BIGGER CONCERN IS FOR THE SHORTWAVE TO EITHER
FORM ANOTHER CLUSTER OF CONVECTION OVER THE NWRN GULF THAT MOVES NNEWD
OR IT ENHANCES ONGOING CONVECTION AND HELPS SLOW THE EWD PROGRESSION
OF THE CONVECTION. EITHER WAY, IT LOOKS LIKE SE TX/SW LA SHOULD REMAIN
UNDER THE THREAT FOR MOD/HVY RAIN FOR QUITE SOME TIME. SO WILL CONTINUE
TO MONITOR HOW THIS PANS OUT THE NEXT FEW HRS.
.
SHORT TERM OUTLOOK VALID 1830Z-2230Z...MEDIUM TO HIGH CONFIDENCE FACTOR
IN SHORT
TERM OUTLOOK...GREATEST CONFIDENCE IS WITH ONGOING CONVECTION NOW
AFFECTING SERN TX/SWRN LA ATTM AS THIS SHOULD BE THE MAIN FOCUS FOR
MOD/HVY RAINFALL THE NEXT 1-2 HRS FOR SURE. SHOULD CONTINUE TO SEE
HEAVIEST RATES/AMTS CLOSEST TO THE COAST WHERE BEST MOISTURE IS, BUT COULD
ALSO SEE SOME HIGHER RATES A BIT FARTHER INLAND AS INDIVIDUAL CELLS WORK
NWD FROM TIME TO TIME. NOT SURE HOW SHORTWAVE NOW MOVING THROUGH LOWER
RIO GRANDE VALLEY IMPACTS CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT LATER ON, BUT COULD SEE
HOW ANOTHER CLUSTER OF CONVECTION TRIES TO DEVELOP/ONGOING CONVECTION
GETS ENHANCED AND THEN IMPACTS SERN TX/SW LA THROUGH THE AFTERNOON.
.
SATELLITE ANALYSIS BRANCH/NESDIS---NPPU---TEL.301-683-1404
LATEST DATA USED: GOES-13 1745Z JBN
.
LOCATION...MISSISSIPPI...LOUISIANA...TEXAS...
.
ATTN WFOS...JAN...LIX...LCH...SHV...HGX...FWD...CRP...EWX...BRO...
ATTN RFCS...LMRFC...WGRFC...
.
EVENT...CONVECTION AFFECTING COASTAL AND SERN TX/LA
.
SATELLITE ANALYSIS AND TRENDS...LATEST GOES IR/VIS IMAGERY SHOWS
CONVECTION MOVING NNEWD FROM THE GULF OF MEXICO AND CONTINUING TO
AFFECT PORTIONS OF SERN TX/LA ATTM. CLOUD TOPS STILL SHOWING A STRONG
COOLING/EXPANDING TREND IN IR ACROSS SERN TX/SWRN LA WHERE BEST SFC
CONVERGENCE/UL DIVERGENCE HAS BEEN TAKING PLACE. HOWEVER, STRONGEST
CONVECTION/HEAVIEST RAIN RAIN RATES PROBABLY IS REMAINING JUST OFFSHORE
WHERE CELL MERGERS HAVE BEEN OCCURRING/OVERSHOOTING TOPS HAVE BEEN
OBSERVED IN VIS IMAGERY. STILL STILL LOOKS LIKE RAIN RATES OF AT LEAST
1-2"/HR MAYBE OCCURRING WITH THE MOST INTENSE CELLS/HEAVIEST POCKETS OF
RAIN ACROSS SERN TX/SW LA BASED ON SFC OBS. GIVEN OVERALL SLOW MOVEMENT
AND POSSIBILITY OF SOME TRAINING, COULD SEE ANOTHER 1-2" OF RAIN THE
NEXT 3-4 HRS ACROSS PARTS OF SERN TX/SWRN LA.
.
FARTHER TO THE SW OVER DEEP SOUTH TEXAS/LOWER RIO GRANDE VALLEY, SEEING
SOME MORE CONVECTION MOVE NNEWD FROM NRN MEXICO AS YET ANOTHER SHORTWAVE
SWINGS NNEWD ACROSS THE REGION. THIS CONVECTION MAY PRODUCE SOME BRIEF
HEAVY DOWNPOURS ACROSS CAMERON/HIDALGO COUNTIES NWD ALONG THE COAST
THE NEXT FEW HRS. HOWEVER, BIGGER CONCERN IS FOR THE SHORTWAVE TO EITHER
FORM ANOTHER CLUSTER OF CONVECTION OVER THE NWRN GULF THAT MOVES NNEWD
OR IT ENHANCES ONGOING CONVECTION AND HELPS SLOW THE EWD PROGRESSION
OF THE CONVECTION. EITHER WAY, IT LOOKS LIKE SE TX/SW LA SHOULD REMAIN
UNDER THE THREAT FOR MOD/HVY RAIN FOR QUITE SOME TIME. SO WILL CONTINUE
TO MONITOR HOW THIS PANS OUT THE NEXT FEW HRS.
.
SHORT TERM OUTLOOK VALID 1830Z-2230Z...MEDIUM TO HIGH CONFIDENCE FACTOR
IN SHORT
TERM OUTLOOK...GREATEST CONFIDENCE IS WITH ONGOING CONVECTION NOW
AFFECTING SERN TX/SWRN LA ATTM AS THIS SHOULD BE THE MAIN FOCUS FOR
MOD/HVY RAINFALL THE NEXT 1-2 HRS FOR SURE. SHOULD CONTINUE TO SEE
HEAVIEST RATES/AMTS CLOSEST TO THE COAST WHERE BEST MOISTURE IS, BUT COULD
ALSO SEE SOME HIGHER RATES A BIT FARTHER INLAND AS INDIVIDUAL CELLS WORK
NWD FROM TIME TO TIME. NOT SURE HOW SHORTWAVE NOW MOVING THROUGH LOWER
RIO GRANDE VALLEY IMPACTS CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT LATER ON, BUT COULD SEE
HOW ANOTHER CLUSTER OF CONVECTION TRIES TO DEVELOP/ONGOING CONVECTION
GETS ENHANCED AND THEN IMPACTS SERN TX/SW LA THROUGH THE AFTERNOON.
.
