Post by SKYSUMMIT on Jan 8, 2013 16:42:08 GMT -6
FLASH FLOOD WATCHES ARE IN EFFECT FOR ALL OF SOUTH LOUISIANA, PARTS OF SOUTH MISSISSIPPI AND SOUTHEAST TEXAS.
From NESDIS this evening (I'll post the graphic when it comes available):
SATELLITE PRECIPITATION ESTIMATES..DATE/TIME 01/08/13 2228Z
SATELLITE ANALYSIS BRANCH/NESDIS---NPPU---TEL.301-683-1404
LATEST DATA USED: GOES-13 2215Z KUSSELSON
NOAA AMSU:1911Z
.
LOCATION...LOUISIANA...C AND E TEXAS...
.
ATTN WFOS...LCH...HGX...FWD...CRP...EWX...SJT...
ATTN RFCS...LMRFC...WGRFC...
.
EVENT...FOCUS ON SIGNIFICANT PRECIP WESTERN GULF AND TOWARD THE MID/UPPER
TEXAS COAST AND S LOUISIANA...FURTHER WEST...INSTABILITY AND INCREASING
MOISTURE FOR A SQUALL LINE...NOT AS SURE...
.
SATELLITE ANALYSIS AND TRENDS...UPPER LOW HAS CERTAINLY BURIED ITSELF
WELL SOUTH INTO CENTRAL MEXICO OR 370 MILES WSW OF KDRT. SEE NO SIGN
YET OF IT LIFTING NORTHEAST. QUITE A BIT OF SHORT WAVE ENERGY LIFT
NORTH OUT AHEAD ACROSS N CENTRAL MEXICO INTO S CENTRAL TX.
MAYBE THIS WILL CONTINUE TO ORGANIZE MORE ALONG PWAT GRADIENT (NOT SHARP,
BUT A GRADIENT NONE THE LESS)) TO FORM THE SQUALL LINE SOME MODELS ARE
INDICATING FOR LATER THIS EVENING/TONIGHT. IN ANY CASE...DEEPER MOISTURE
WELL TO THE EAST AND SE OF C TX IN WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO WHERE VALUES
IN THE 1.6"-1.8" AND JUST ABOVE 2 STANDARD DEVIATIONS ABOVE CLIMO AND
NOW WELL OVER 200 PERCENT OF NORMAL. WITH SUCH A HIGH CONCENTRATION OF
MOISTURE THAT IS BEING HELPED BY MID/HIGH LEVEL MOISTURE BEING ADVECTED
IN FROM THE PACIFIC ACROSS THE MEXICAN MOUNTAINS...AT LEAST SOME TYPE
OF SURFACE LOW REFLECTION TRYING TO BE IDENTIFIED IN WESTERN GULF OF
MEXICO JUST EAST OR ENE OF KBRO. THINK HIGH MOISTURE AND ADVECTION ON
LOW LEVEL SOUTHERLY FLOW INTO UPPER TX COAST AND S LA...ESPECIALLY SW TO
S CENTRAL LA MAKES THIS AREA AN EQUALLY INCREASING AREA FOR LOCALIZED FF
THROUGH THIS EVENING. BUT AS LONG AS CONVECTIVE COMPLEX OF COLD TOPS
CONTINUES W CENTRAL GULF...THIS MAY INHIBIT REALLY LONG AND SUSTAINED
HVY PRECIPITATION REACHING TX AND LA COAST AND INLAND...AT LEAST FOR
THE SHORT TERM. IN THE BIG PICTURE, NOT A WHOLE LOT UPSTREAM TO SPEED
UP INCREASING RAINFALL THAT WILL BE MUCH HELPED ALONG BY MEXICAN UPPER
LOW...SO PRETTY MUCH A STEADY AS YOU GO RAMPING UP OF AREAL AND INTENSITY
OF RAINFALL MOST AREAS CENTRAL TO SE/E CENTRAL/INTERIOR NE TX INTO W/C
LOUISIANA, ESPECIALLY SW AND S CENTRAL.
.
AN ANNOTATED SATELLITE GRAPHIC SHOWING THE HEAVY PRECIPITATION THREAT AREA
SHOULD BE AVAILABLE ON THE INTERNET ADDRESS LISTED BELOW IN APPROXIMATELY
10-15 MINUTES.
.
SHORT TERM OUTLOOK VALID 2230-0300Z...MEDIUM CONFIDENCE FACTOR IN SHORT
TERM OUTLOOK...HIGHEST MOISTURE AND ADVECTION INTO UPPER TX COAST AND SW
TO S CENTRAL LA AND INLAND AND WOULD EXPECT THIS AREA TO HAVE HIGHEST
PRECIP AMOUNTS. KEEPING AN EYE ON CONVECTIVE CLUSTERS S CENTRAL INTO
C TX ALONG PWAT GRADIENT AND MORE ACTIVITY COMING NORTH FROM MEXICO
THAT MAY DEVELOP INTO A SQUALL LINE OR TWO FOR THE HVY PRECIP CENTRAL
TX...BUT THINKING LATER PART OF THIS PERIOD OR AFTER 03Z. CAN'T GET
TOO EXCITED FOR SUSTAINED/FF PRODUCING HVY RAINS FOR CENTRAL TEXAS TILL
THERE ARE MORE SIGNS OF THIS UPPER LOW COMING NORTH OUT OF ITS BURIED
POSITION IN CENTRAL MEXICO.
From NESDIS this evening (I'll post the graphic when it comes available):
SATELLITE PRECIPITATION ESTIMATES..DATE/TIME 01/08/13 2228Z
SATELLITE ANALYSIS BRANCH/NESDIS---NPPU---TEL.301-683-1404
LATEST DATA USED: GOES-13 2215Z KUSSELSON
NOAA AMSU:1911Z
.
LOCATION...LOUISIANA...C AND E TEXAS...
.
ATTN WFOS...LCH...HGX...FWD...CRP...EWX...SJT...
ATTN RFCS...LMRFC...WGRFC...
.
EVENT...FOCUS ON SIGNIFICANT PRECIP WESTERN GULF AND TOWARD THE MID/UPPER
TEXAS COAST AND S LOUISIANA...FURTHER WEST...INSTABILITY AND INCREASING
MOISTURE FOR A SQUALL LINE...NOT AS SURE...
.
SATELLITE ANALYSIS AND TRENDS...UPPER LOW HAS CERTAINLY BURIED ITSELF
WELL SOUTH INTO CENTRAL MEXICO OR 370 MILES WSW OF KDRT. SEE NO SIGN
YET OF IT LIFTING NORTHEAST. QUITE A BIT OF SHORT WAVE ENERGY LIFT
NORTH OUT AHEAD ACROSS N CENTRAL MEXICO INTO S CENTRAL TX.
MAYBE THIS WILL CONTINUE TO ORGANIZE MORE ALONG PWAT GRADIENT (NOT SHARP,
BUT A GRADIENT NONE THE LESS)) TO FORM THE SQUALL LINE SOME MODELS ARE
INDICATING FOR LATER THIS EVENING/TONIGHT. IN ANY CASE...DEEPER MOISTURE
WELL TO THE EAST AND SE OF C TX IN WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO WHERE VALUES
IN THE 1.6"-1.8" AND JUST ABOVE 2 STANDARD DEVIATIONS ABOVE CLIMO AND
NOW WELL OVER 200 PERCENT OF NORMAL. WITH SUCH A HIGH CONCENTRATION OF
MOISTURE THAT IS BEING HELPED BY MID/HIGH LEVEL MOISTURE BEING ADVECTED
IN FROM THE PACIFIC ACROSS THE MEXICAN MOUNTAINS...AT LEAST SOME TYPE
OF SURFACE LOW REFLECTION TRYING TO BE IDENTIFIED IN WESTERN GULF OF
MEXICO JUST EAST OR ENE OF KBRO. THINK HIGH MOISTURE AND ADVECTION ON
LOW LEVEL SOUTHERLY FLOW INTO UPPER TX COAST AND S LA...ESPECIALLY SW TO
S CENTRAL LA MAKES THIS AREA AN EQUALLY INCREASING AREA FOR LOCALIZED FF
THROUGH THIS EVENING. BUT AS LONG AS CONVECTIVE COMPLEX OF COLD TOPS
CONTINUES W CENTRAL GULF...THIS MAY INHIBIT REALLY LONG AND SUSTAINED
HVY PRECIPITATION REACHING TX AND LA COAST AND INLAND...AT LEAST FOR
THE SHORT TERM. IN THE BIG PICTURE, NOT A WHOLE LOT UPSTREAM TO SPEED
UP INCREASING RAINFALL THAT WILL BE MUCH HELPED ALONG BY MEXICAN UPPER
LOW...SO PRETTY MUCH A STEADY AS YOU GO RAMPING UP OF AREAL AND INTENSITY
OF RAINFALL MOST AREAS CENTRAL TO SE/E CENTRAL/INTERIOR NE TX INTO W/C
LOUISIANA, ESPECIALLY SW AND S CENTRAL.
.
AN ANNOTATED SATELLITE GRAPHIC SHOWING THE HEAVY PRECIPITATION THREAT AREA
SHOULD BE AVAILABLE ON THE INTERNET ADDRESS LISTED BELOW IN APPROXIMATELY
10-15 MINUTES.
.
SHORT TERM OUTLOOK VALID 2230-0300Z...MEDIUM CONFIDENCE FACTOR IN SHORT
TERM OUTLOOK...HIGHEST MOISTURE AND ADVECTION INTO UPPER TX COAST AND SW
TO S CENTRAL LA AND INLAND AND WOULD EXPECT THIS AREA TO HAVE HIGHEST
PRECIP AMOUNTS. KEEPING AN EYE ON CONVECTIVE CLUSTERS S CENTRAL INTO
C TX ALONG PWAT GRADIENT AND MORE ACTIVITY COMING NORTH FROM MEXICO
THAT MAY DEVELOP INTO A SQUALL LINE OR TWO FOR THE HVY PRECIP CENTRAL
TX...BUT THINKING LATER PART OF THIS PERIOD OR AFTER 03Z. CAN'T GET
TOO EXCITED FOR SUSTAINED/FF PRODUCING HVY RAINS FOR CENTRAL TEXAS TILL
THERE ARE MORE SIGNS OF THIS UPPER LOW COMING NORTH OUT OF ITS BURIED
POSITION IN CENTRAL MEXICO.
