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cycloneye
Category 5

Posts: 2,507

Puerto Rico Weather Jun 6, 2017 4:16:01 GMT -6

Quote

Post by cycloneye on Jun 6, 2017 4:16:01 GMT -6

Area Forecast Discussion

National Weather Service San Juan PR

502 AM AST Tue Jun 6 2017

.SYNOPSIS...Upper level ridge to continue dominating over the

local area for the next few days but an upper low is expected to

pass through the local area this weekend, causing unstable upper

level conditions. Surface high pressure across the eastern

Atlantic will continue to promote east southeasterly winds for the

next few days.

&&

.SHORT TERM...Tuesday through Thursday...

Mostly fair weather conditions are expected to prevail across the

region during the rest of the early morning hours with only a few

passing clouds and light showers possible mostly over parts of the

offshore coastal waters. Otherwise little or no precipitation is

expected to reach the islands, as skies are to become mostly sunny

by late morning. For the rest of the day local and diurnal effects

may give way to a few afternoon showers or streamer-like clouds and

showers over parts of the east interior and west-northwest sections

of Puerto Rico, but the activity if any should be of short duration.

The remainder of the islands can expect mostly sunny skies with

little or no rainfall as the mid to upper level ridge should hold

across the region for another day.

By Wednesday and Thursday expect upper ridge to erode as an upper

level trough will deepen and sink southward across the region while

entering the eastern Caribbean. In the meantime... Surface high

pressure centered across the northwest Atlantic will hold in place to

maintain moderate east to southeast trade winds across the region

though Wednesday. By Thursday however, winds are diminish and become

more easterly in response to an area of low pressure developing and

moving across the western Atlantic. That said, expected better

chance of early morning and afternoon showers across the parts of

the islands on Wednesday and Thursday. Most of which will be locally

and diurnally induced and should be focused over parts of the

central and west interior sections of Puerto Rico where isolated

thunderstorms will be possible.

.LONG TERM...Friday through Wednesday...

Near normal moisture is expected late this week into the weekend

before a line of drier air moves on Monday, quickly rebounding on

Tuesday and Wednesday. During this portion, a Surface high

pressure is expected to remain north of the local area, causing

east to east northeast winds and tightening the pressure gradient

slightly. Also, for this weekend, there may be an upper low

passing through the area, which could help in the development of

thunderstorms over the local area, stabilizing the upper levels on

Monday and then an upper trough to develop to the northeast of the

local islands for Tuesday and Wednesday. At this time, the shower

and thunderstorm activity in the long term may be decided on the

conditions of the upper levels, if the long range models verify

the forecast we could have some rain every day, especially this

weekend, improving conditions on Monday, then some rain thereafter

but maybe not as much as this weekend, if the long range models

are correct.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR durg entire prd at all terminals and en route btw

islands. Few -SHRA ovr coastal waters and btw islands...few passing

clds lyrs FL025...Fl050...and btw FL200-FL250... mostly SKC ovr land

areas til 06/14z.L/lvl Wnds fm ESE 5-15 kts blo FL150. Sfc wnd

LGT/VRB bcmg mainly fm E-SE 10-15 kts but slightly higher with sea

breeze variations and occasional gusts aft 06/14z. VCSH possible at

TJBQ and TJMZ aft 05/18Z. No sig operational wx impacts attm.

&&

.MARINE...Seas will be up to 6 feet today across portions of the

Offshore Caribbean waters and the Mona Passage. Also, winds up to

20 knots in the Atlantic waters and nearshore Caribbean. Therefore

the small craft operators should exercise caution. Moderate risk

of rip currents across many of our local beaches.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...

SJU 91 79 90 79 / 20 20 20 10

STT 91 79 89 79 / 30 30 20 30

cycloneye
Category 5

Posts: 2,507

Puerto Rico Weather Jun 7, 2017 4:08:58 GMT -6

Quote

Post by cycloneye on Jun 7, 2017 4:08:58 GMT -6

Area Forecast Discussion

National Weather Service San Juan PR

444 AM AST Wed Jun 7 2017

.SYNOPSIS...Ease to southeast winds are expected through the end

of the week due to a surface high pressure over the central

Atlantic. Another surface high will develop north of the local

islands on Sunday but still promoting mainly easterly winds. Low

pressure in the upper levels will develop over the local area

today and will meander over the local area for the next several

days, causing an increase in the local instability, increasing the

chances of thunderstorms over the area.

&&

.SHORT TERM...Today through Friday...Tutt low now sagging across

the region into the eastern Caribbean will linger just east of the

islands and over the northern Leewards during the rest of the work

week. Surface high pressure ridge spread across the Atlantic will

help maintain moderate easterlies across the region through at least

Thursday. It will then slightly weaken across the area by Friday, as

a low pressure system will enter the southwest Atlantic and continue

to develop while lifting northwards across the western Atlantic.

A weak tropical wave now crossing the Windward islands will move

mainly south of the region today through Thursday. However, sheared

fragments of low to mid level moisture along the northern periphery

and trailing the wave will continue to move westward across the

local waters and reach the islands. This will continue to bring a

few early morning passing showers to the coastal waters and parts of

the islands from time to time. Saharan dust particulates will

continue to diminish and exit the region today, leaving mostly sunny

skies. However, available moisture along with local and diurnal

effects will likely lead to some afternoon showers, with possibly a

isolated thunderstorms each day. Activity however should be of short

duration with no significant rainfall accumulations expected, as the

weak mid level ridge should hold in place, along with the location

of the upper trough which will not be conducive for significant

convective development.

.LONG TERM...Saturday through Thursday...

Patches of moisture and dry air will be affecting the local area

from time to time during the weekend and next week. The upper low

pressure is expected to still be meandering over the area through

at least next Wednesday. On Sunday, an area of deeper moisture

could be passing through the local islands which could cause an

increase in shower activity given that the upper low will help in

the development of showers and thunderstorms across the local

waters and over portions of PR, especially in areas of sea breeze

convergence. Dry air moves in on Monday but moisture returns on

Tuesday at near normal levels and then much deeper moisture is

expected on Thursday. Given that the upper low will be hanging

around and the wind flow will be mainly from the east the whole

time, the only feature that will be changing is the available

moisture, which then could be the determining factor on just how

much rain will fall and where once combined with local effects.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR conds durg prd with few passing -SHRA ovr the

regional waters and en route and btwn islands til 07/14z...SCT cld

lyrs nr FL022...FL040...and FEW tops nr FL120 ovr caribbean waters S

of PR. Recent TJSJ upper air sounding suggests east winds btw 10-20

kts blo FL200. Sfc wnd LGT/VRB...bcmg fm E-SE 10-20 kts aft 07/14z

except for local sea breeze variations and ocnly higher gusts along

coastal areas. Btw 07/17z-07/23z...Isold-SCT SHRA w/Psbl isold TSRA

mainly ovr ctrl MTN range and NW PR and Few -SHRA psbl downwind of

USVI.

&&

.MARINE...Seas will be up to 6 feet and winds up to 20 knots

across the coastal Atlantic waters, the Caribbean waters and Mona

Passage. Small craft operators are urged to exercise caution. Seas

up to 5 feet with winds up to 15 knots elsewhere. Rip current

risk will be moderate across many of our local beaches.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...

SJU 90 78 90 79 / 20 10 20 10

STT 89 79 89 79 / 20 30 30 10

cycloneye
Category 5

Posts: 2,507

Puerto Rico Weather Jun 8, 2017 4:21:19 GMT -6

Quote

Post by cycloneye on Jun 8, 2017 4:21:19 GMT -6

Area Forecast Discussion

National Weather Service San Juan PR

407 AM AST Thu Jun 8 2017

.SYNOPSIS...TUTT low is still expected to meander over the local

islands through at least Monday. A ridge in the mid levels west

and over the local area will continue to slowly erode through

Friday. Surface high pressure will dominate the Atlantic for the

next several days, keeping the local islands under a prevailing

east southeasterly to easterly flow.

&&

.SHORT TERM...Today through Saturday... Meandering TUTT and slowly

weakening mid level ridge today through Friday will continue to

support moisture transport across the eastern Caribbean resulting in

periods of morning showers over the coastal waters, and mainly on

the windward side of the islands. The available moisture along with

local and diurnal effect will lead to showers and possibly isolated

thunderstorms mainly over parts of the central interior and west to

northwest sections of Puerto Rico each afternoon. Afternoon

convection over Puerto Rico is expected to be of short duration and

should diminish around sunset leaving partly cloudy to mostly clear

skies over land areas during the evening and overnight hours. The

remainder of the islands should experience mostly fair weather skies

pleasant weather conditions during the next few days, except for a

chance of isolated showers during the early morning and late

afternoon hours. The prevailing east to southeast low level winds

are forecast to become more east to northeast by Saturday allowing

for high temperature to remain in the near normal range.

.LONG TERM...Sunday through Friday...

The TUTT low is expected to continue meandering over the local

islands until at least Monday, which should keep conditions

somewhat unsettled for those days. However, Sunday looks like it

could have showers and thunderstorms as a patch of moisture moves

in, while on Monday we expect drier air moving in, which would

limit the shower activity over the area. Thereafter, the TUTT

opens up and a broad trough in the upper levels remains for a few

days, lingering moisture remains on Tuesday but then near normal

amounts of moisture is forecast from Wednesday through Friday.

This setup for the mid to latter part of the week could give us

scattered showers through the day with more persistent showers and

possible thunderstorms over portions of PR where the local effects

combine with diurnal heating and available moisture.

&&

.AVIATION...Mostly VFR conditions will prevail across the local

flying area for the next 24 hours. However passing SHRA will

continue across the coastal waters and Vcty of all local islands at

least til 08/12z. Fm 08/17z-08/22z...Isold-Sct SHRA/Psbl with Isold

TSRA posbl ovr over central mtn range and NW PR affect mostly TJBQ

and TJMZ and VCTY. Recent TJSJ sounding suggests E-SE wind flow 15-

25 knots at FL200 and BLO.

&&

.MARINE...Seas will be generally 2 to 5 feet across the local

waters. Winds will be up to 15 knots across most of the waters but

up to 20 knots across the nearshore Atlantic waters, where small

craft operators are urged to exercise caution. There will be a

moderate risk of rip currents across many of our local beaches

today and through the weekend.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...

SJU 90 79 90 78 / 30 10 20 30

STT 89 80 88 79 / 40 20 20 20

cycloneye
Category 5

Posts: 2,507

Puerto Rico Weather Jun 9, 2017 4:09:53 GMT -6

Quote

Post by cycloneye on Jun 9, 2017 4:09:53 GMT -6

Area Forecast Discussion

National Weather Service San Juan PR

426 AM AST Fri Jun 9 2017

.SYNOPSIS...Surface high pressure will remain anchored across The central

atlantic through the upcoming weekend. This will therefore maintain

moderate trade winds across the local area. An tutt low and associated

mid level trough will linger across the northeastern Caribbean through

the weekend to maintain unstable conditions aloft. This should help

to enhance and ventilate any localized convection.

&&

.SHORT TERM...Today through Sunday...

Upper level low will continue to dominate the local weather over

the next several days. This feature will meander over the Northeast

Caribbean inducing a surface trough between the Leeward Islands

and Puerto Rico. Both features will keep the weather conditions

somewhat unstable through the end of the week. A surge of mid

level energy will combine with the surface trough to enhance the

shower activity across the local islands from this afternoon

through Saturday morning. Heavy rain and thunderstorm activity

will be likely this afternoon over the northwest quadrant of

Puerto Rico. Then...another round of showers will likely affect

the USVI and eastern PR this evening into Saturday morning with

heavy rainfall at times.

The rest of the weekend...showers and a few thunderstorms will develop

once again over Northwest PR but the intensity should be slightly

less than this afternoon as mid level dynamics will be less favorable.

The next round of showers is forecast on Sunday morning as a moist

band approaches from the northeast.

.LONG TERM...Monday through Saturday...

The tutt low is forecast to meander across the northeastern Caribbean

and forecast areas through Monday of next week. This will maintain

fairly unstable upper level conditions across the region and therefore

keep the local weather conditions unsettled especially during the

early morning and afternoon hours. By Tuesday and Wednesday, expect

drier and stable conditions as the upper low will lift northwards

and fill. High pressure ridge will then build and spread eastwards

across the forecast area from the west and southwest Atlantic.

Surface high pressure ridge north of the region will also weaken

Tuesday thru Wednesday, as an induced surface trough is forecast

to develop and move across the area. The next tropical wave is

forecast to enter and move across the eastern Caribbean late

Wednesday or Thursday. The combination of these two features

should bring an increase in tropical moisture and a somewhat

wetter pattern across the forecast area at least through saturday.

The expected scenario for the mid to latter part of next week

suggests increased chance for isolated to scattered showers each

day, with isolated thunderstorms possible over the coastal waters

and the interior and west portions of PR each day, where local

effects and diurnal heating along with the available moisture may

enhance afternoon convection.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR conds are forecast for most of the TAF sites.

Scattered SHRA associated with a surface trough will continue to

affect the NE Caribbean. +SHRA and ISOLD TSRA expected between 18Z-

22Z near TJBQ and possibly TJMZ. This activity may lead to brief

MVFR/IFR at TJBQ. Depth layer easterly winds of 10-15 kt will

prevail below FL250.

&&

.MARINE...Tranquil marine conditions will continue to prevail across

the local waters with seas up to 5 feet and winds 15 knots or less.

Winds and seas will increase slightly during the upcoming weekend

and into early next week leading to choppy conditions across the

regional waters.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...

SJU 90 78 90 79 / 40 40 30 50

STT 89 79 89 78 / 40 40 30 50

cycloneye
Category 5

Posts: 2,507

Puerto Rico Weather Jun 9, 2017 4:10:09 GMT -6

Quote

Post by cycloneye on Jun 9, 2017 4:10:09 GMT -6

cycloneye
Category 5

Posts: 2,507

Puerto Rico Weather Jun 10, 2017 4:21:37 GMT -6

Quote

Post by cycloneye on Jun 10, 2017 4:21:37 GMT -6

Area Forecast Discussion

National Weather Service San Juan PR

347 AM AST Sat Jun 10 2017

.SYNOPSIS...Surface high pressure will remain anchored across The central

Atlantic through the weekend. This will help maintain moderate easterly

trade winds across the local area. A tutt low and associated mid level

trough will linger across the northeastern Caribbean through the weekend

to maintain unstable conditions aloft. This feature along with local

and diurnal effects will help to enhance and ventilate any localized

daytime convection.

&&

.SHORT TERM...Today through Monday...Upper level low/TUTT over

Puerto Rico and the Virgin Islands will linger across the NE

Caribbean through early next week. This feature is inducing a

surface trough over the Lesser Antilles. Although...the induced

trough will remain east of the forecast area...the easterly trades

will continue to push scattered showers across the regional waters

from time to time.

For this afternoon...numerous showers and isolated thunderstorms

will cluster over NW PR. Also the east-southeast flow will favor the

generation of streamers downwind of El Yunque and the small islands.

Therefore...scattered showers are also possible across portions of

the San Juan Metro Area this afternoon. A wind surge approaching

from the northeast will bring a round of scattered showers to the

Leeward Islands and PR/USVI on Sunday. Then...a drier and more

stable air mass will reach the region on Monday ahead of a developing

surface trough and the next Tropical Wave on Tuesday. All in all...the

upper low/TUTT will provide enough instability to induce the development

of shower and thunderstorms each afternoon over Western PR though at

least Monday.

.LONG TERM...Tuesday through Sunday...

Expect drier and stable conditions Tuesday through Wednesday, as the

mid to upper level trough will lift northwards as high pressure ridge

builds and spread eastwards across the forecast area from the west

and southwest Atlantic. In the meantime, surface high pressure ridge

north of the region will gradually weaken Tuesday thru Friday, as a

surface trough develops and move across the area. A tropical wave is

also forecast to enter and move across the eastern Caribbean Wednesday

through Thursday, but is so far expected to move mainly south of the

region with model guidance also suggesting Saharan dust accompanying

this wave. Both of the previously features should however transport

sufficient tropical moisture across the area to support early morning

passing showers, followed by isolated to scattered afternoon convection

each day with isolated thunderstorms possible mainly over parts of

the interior and west sections of Puerto Rico. Local and diurnal effect

along with the available moisture should be the main driving force

for afternoon convection as no major feature is forecast to directly

affect the region at this time.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR conds are forecast for most of the TAF sites. SCT

SHRA en route from the Leeward Islands to Puerto Rico. SCT020 and

SCT050 will prevail across the flying area. +SHRA and ISOLD TSRA

expected once again near TJBQ between 18Z-22Z. This activity may

lead to brief MVFR/IFR. Depth layer easterly winds of 10-15 kt

will continue below FL150.

&&

.MARINE...Slightly choppy conditions can be expected over the local

Atlantic waters today with seas up to 5 feet and winds up to 20 knots.

Winds and seas will increase during the remainder of the weekend and

into early next week with seas expected to increase to up to 6 feet

due to the moderate to fresh winds driven seas.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...

SJU 90 79 87 78 / 20 50 50 20

STT 89 78 89 78 / 20 50 50 30

cycloneye
Category 5

Posts: 2,507

Puerto Rico Weather Jun 11, 2017 4:42:45 GMT -6

Quote

Post by cycloneye on Jun 11, 2017 4:42:45 GMT -6

Area Forecast Discussion

National Weather Service San Juan PR

404 AM AST Sun Jun 11 2017

.SYNOPSIS...Surface high pressure across the central and eastern

Atlantic will promote moderate east to northeast trade winds during

the next several days. A meandering Tutt low and associated mid level

trough will continue across the region to maintain unstable conditions

aloft through Monday. A tropical wave and associated moisture continued

to approach the Lesser Antilles and interact with the meandering Tutt.

&&

.SHORT TERM...Today through Tuesday...Upper level low/TUTT will

meander over the NE Caribbean through at least Monday night. This

feature is forecast to fill/dissipate on Tuesday. As a result...

weather conditions will remain somewhat unstable under the influence

of the TUTT. The potential for showers and thunderstorms remains high

as moisture levels remain near normal. The rest of the morning...

light to moderate rainfall will be possible across the windward side

of the local islands. Then...Heavy rainfall can be expected during

the afternoon hours over Western PR. Low level wind backed from the

ENE...favoring the development of the afternoon convection from

Utuado to Mayaguez/Cabo Rojo.

Although...the upper low/TUTT will gradually dissipate on Tuesday...

conditions will remain fairly unstable due to the arrival of a

tropical wave. The best moisture convergence associated with this

waves appears to be between 12Z-18Z on Tuesday. This will result in

another round of scattered showers across the NE Caribbean.

.LONG TERM...Wednesday through Monday...Expect overall dry and

stable conditions aloft on Wednesday, as the mid to upper level

trough lifts north of the area and high pressure ridge builds and

spread eastwards across the region. Surface high pressure ridge

will gradually weaken thru Friday, as a low level trough develops

and extends across the area. Moisture trailing the previously mentioned

tropical wave is forecast to affect the eastern Caribbean through

Wednesday.Model guidance continued to suggest a mild concentration

of Saharan dust trailing this wave. The presence of the aforementioned

trough should allow sufficient moisture convergence across the the

area to support passing early morning showers, followed by isolated

to scattered afternoon convection each day. Isolated thunderstorms

will remain possible but mainly over parts of the interior and

west sections of Puerto Rico. Local and diurnal effects along with

the available moisture should be the main driving force for

afternoon convection as model guidance continued to suggest no

major feature to affect the region through Saturday. By late

Sunday or Monday a deepening Tutt, and a tropical wave is forecast

to develop and approach the Lesser Antilles.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR conds are forecast for most of the TAF sites. SHRA

between SCT030-SCT060 will continue to move westward across the

flying area the rest of the morning. +SHRA and ISOLD TSRA expected

near TJMZ between 18Z-22Z. This activity may lead to brief MVFR/IFR.

Easterly winds of 10-20 kt will prevail below FL150.

&&

.MARINE...Choppy marine conditions will continue to prevail

across the local waters through early next week with seas up

to 6 feet and winds 15-20 knots. Small boat operators should

exercise caution.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...

SJU 88 78 89 78 / 30 20 20 20

STT 89 77 89 79 / 30 20 20 30

cycloneye
Category 5

Posts: 2,507

Puerto Rico Weather Jun 12, 2017 4:13:19 GMT -6

Quote

Post by cycloneye on Jun 12, 2017 4:13:19 GMT -6

Area Forecast Discussion

National Weather Service San Juan PR

417 AM AST Mon Jun 12 2017

.SYNOPSIS...Surface high pressure across the central and eastern

Atlantic will promote moderate east to northeast trade winds during

the next several days. A weak tropical wave is expected to move

across the region on Tuesday.

&&

.SHORT TERM...Today through Wednesday...Upper level low/TUTT over

the NE Caribbean will gradually dissipate/fill through midweek.

Weather conditions are expected to remain somewhat unstable under

the influence of the TUTT. However...the overall moisture across

region will continue below normal through tonight. As a result...the

shower activity will be similar to yesterday...with some showers

developing over Mayaguez and Vicinity and a few cloud lines forming

downwind of El Yunque. Mid-level temperatures are warm...therefore

thunderstorms if any will be isolated over Western PR.

A weak tropical wave is forecast to move across the local area on

Tuesday. This will result in another round of scattered showers

across the NE Caribbean. After the wave...a drier and more stable

air mass with some Saharan Dust will reach the local region limiting

the shower activity on Wednesday.

.LONG TERM... Thursday through Tuesday...Expect overall dry and

stable conditions aloft on Thursday, as the mid to upper level

trough lifts north of the area and high pressure ridge builds and

spread eastwards across the region. Local and diurnal effects

along with the available moisture should be the main driving force

for afternoon convection as model guidance continued to suggest

no major feature to affect the region through Saturday. By late

Monday or Tuesday of next week, a deepening TUTT, and a tropical

wave is forecast to develop and approach the Lesser Antilles.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR conds are forecast for most of the TAF sites. .

SHRA/ISOLD TSRA posible near TJMZ between 18Z-22Z. This activity may

lead to brief MVFR. Easterly winds of 10-20 kt will prevail below

FL150.

&&

.MARINE...Choppy marine conditions will continue to prevail

across the local waters through late rhis afternoon with seas up

to 6 feet and winds 15-20 knots. Small boat operators should

exercise caution.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...

SJU 90 80 90 79 / 30 20 20 20

STT 89 80 89 80 / 30 30 30 20

cycloneye
Category 5

Posts: 2,507

Puerto Rico Weather Jun 13, 2017 3:58:11 GMT -6

Quote

Post by cycloneye on Jun 13, 2017 3:58:11 GMT -6

Area Forecast Discussion

National Weather Service San Juan PR

404 AM AST Tue Jun 13 2017

.SYNOPSIS...Upper level trough over the northeast Caribbean is

expected to drift northward while filling today. Weak tropical

wave across the central Caribbean will move westward with little

effects over the the local islands. Weak surface high pressure

across the central Atlantic will continue to promote a moderate

easterly trade wind flow across the local islands for the next

several days.

&&

.SHORT TERM...Today through Thursday...

Small patches of moisture embedded in the easterly trades moved

westward across the surrounding waters overnight and early this

morning, but not precipitation was detected over land areas. Weak

upper level trough over the northeast Caribbean is expected to

drift northward while dissipate/fill today and tonight. A weak

tropical wave across the central Caribbean just south of

Hispaniola is expected to move westward away from the

region...with little effects, if any, over the local islands. PW

values will remain near or below normal during the next couple of

days. Therefore the overall moisture across the region will

continue below normal through at least Wednesday. As a

result...limited shower activity is expected across the region

with locally induced activity across western and interior sections

of Puerto Rico each afternoon.

A tropical wave along 50 west this morning is expected to reach

the eastern Caribbean late Wednesday and then passing mostly

south of the region on Thursday. This feature is expected to

produce an increase in moisture across the northeast Caribbean.

After the passage of the wave...a drier and more stable air mass

with some Saharan Dust will reach the local region limiting the

shower activity.

.LONG TERM...Friday through Wednesday...

Expect overall dry and stable conditions aloft from Friday

through Sunday...as the mid to upper level trough lifts north of

the area and high pressure ridge builds and spread eastwards

across the region. Local and diurnal effects along with the

available moisture should be the main driving force for afternoon

convection as model guidance continued to suggest no major feature

to affect the region through Sunday.

By late Sunday or Monday of next week, a deepening TUTT, and a

tropical wave is forecast to develop and approach the Lesser The

local region. These features will increase the showers and

thunderstorms coverage across the local islands.

&&

.AVIATION...Mostly VFR conditions expected to prevail across the

local flying area with only VCSH possible across the Leewards

Islands, USVI and TJSJ taf sites during the morning hours.

Easterly winds at 10 knots early in the morning, will increase to

15 knots after 13/12z. TSRA/SHRA expected in and around TJMZ/TJBQ

after 13/16Z.

&&

.MARINE...Choppy marine conditions will continue to prevail

across the some of the local waters through late this afternoon

with seas up to 6 feet and winds 15-20 knots. Small boat operators

should exercise caution. There is a high risk current for the

northwest to northeast beaches of Puerto Rico.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...

SJU 90 80 90 79 / 30 20 20 20

STT 89 80 89 80 / 30 30 30 20

cycloneye
Category 5

Posts: 2,507

Puerto Rico Weather Jun 14, 2017 4:27:10 GMT -6

Quote

Post by cycloneye on Jun 14, 2017 4:27:10 GMT -6

Area Forecast Discussion

National Weather Service San Juan PR

408 AM AST Wed Jun 14 2017

.SYNOPSIS...Weak upper level trough north of the region is

expected to drift eastward while filling today. An upper level low

is forecast to develop over the northeast Caribbean during the

upcoming weekend. Weak tropical wave just to the east of the

Lesser Antilles will move across the eastern Caribbean on

Wednesday and then south of the region late Wednesday and

Thursday. Surface high pressure across the western Atlantic will

continue to dominates the local region through the end of the work

week.

&&

.SHORT TERM...Today through Friday...

Small patches of moisture embedded in the easterly trades moved

westward across the surrounding waters overnight and early this

morning. Few of this showers affected the U.S. Virgin Islands,

Vieques, Culebra as well as the eastern sections of Puerto Rico.

Elsewhere across the region, not significant precipitation was

detected. Weak upper level trough north of the region will drift

eastward while dissipates today. As this happens the moisture

transport is expected to decrease with PW values near or below

normal today. As a result limited shower activity is expected

across the region today, but as previous afternoons, locally

induced activity is expected to develop over western and interior

sections of Puerto Rico this afternoon.

A tropical wave just to the east of the Lesser Antilles is

expected to reach the eastern Caribbean today and then passing

mostly south of the region tonight and Thursday. This feature is

expected to produce a slight increase in moisture across the

northeast Caribbean. However, at this time, not significant

precipitation is expected in association with the passage of the

wave. After the passage of the wave...a drier and more stable air

mass with some Saharan Dust will reach the local region limiting

the shower activity.

.LONG TERM...Saturday through Thursday...

Expect overall dry and stable conditions aloft from Saturday and

Sunday...as the mid to upper level trough lifts north of the area

and high pressure ridge builds and spread eastwards across the

region. Local and diurnal effects along with the available

moisture should be the main driving force for afternoon convection

as model guidance continued to suggest no major feature to affect

the region through Sunday.

On Monday of next week, a deepening TUTT, and a tropical wave is

forecast to develop and approach the Lesser The local region. These

features will increase the showers and thunderstorms coverage across

the local islands. The National Hurricane Center are giving a low

probability of development for the next 5 days.

&&

.AVIATION...Light showers embedded in the trades will result in

brief periods of -RA/VCSH across the Leeward/USVI/Eastern PR

terminals until 14/15Z. SHRA/TSRA should develop once again after

14/17Z across the NW quadrant of PR. Latest 14/00z TJSJ upper air

sounding indicated mainly east winds up to 20 knots below FL100.

&&

.MARINE...Small long period northerly swell will continue to

result in a high rip current risk along the northern beaches of

PR, Culebra and St. Croix through at least this afternoon. Seas

are expected to continue between 3-5 feet and up to 6 feet across

the Atlantic/Caribbean offshore waters and the Anegada Passage.

East winds expected to continue between 15-20 knots across much of

the regional waters. Therefore, small crafts should exercise

caution.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...

SJU 90 79 90 79 / 30 30 30 20

STT 89 80 88 79 / 20 20 30 30

cycloneye
Category 5

Posts: 2,507

Puerto Rico Weather Jun 15, 2017 4:08:43 GMT -6

Quote

Post by cycloneye on Jun 15, 2017 4:08:43 GMT -6

Area Forecast Discussion

National Weather Service San Juan PR

510 AM AST Thu Jun 15 2017

.SYNOPSIS...Tropical wave will move westward across the Caribbean

Waters through tonight. The bulk of the moisture associated with

the wave will remain mainly south of the area. A drier and more

stable air mass will reach the region tonight. As a result...fair

weather conditions are possible from Friday into the weekend.

&&

.SHORT TERM...Today through Saturday...

Small patches of moisture embedded in the easterly trades moved

westward across the surrounding waters overnight. Few of these

showers affected the U.S. Virgin Islands, Vieques, Culebra as well

as the eastern sections of Puerto Rico. Elsewhere over land areas,

not significant precipitation was detected overnight and early this

morning.

Weak upper level trough north of the region will drift eastward well

away from the local islands during the next few days. A tropical

wave across the eastern Caribbean early this morning is expected to

pass mostly south of the region today and tonight. This feature is

expected to produce an increase in moisture across the northeast

Caribbean today. The moisture associated with the tropical wave is

expected to combine with daytime heating and local effects to induce

a new round of showers and thunderstorms across western interior,

northwest and part of the Metropolitan area this afternoon. This

activity is expected to last until the early evening hours. After

the passage of the wave...a drier and more stable air mass with some

Saharan Dust will reach the local region limiting the shower

activity Friday and Saturday.

.LONG TERM...Sunday through Friday...

Trough pattern will establish across the Northeast Caribbean early

next week. This trough aloft will interact with a tropical wave

that is forecast to cross the local islands on Monday. Then...

another tropical wave will move across the local region on

Wednesday. Overall...most of next week looks unsettled as upper

trough/TUTT will provide instability and the tropical waves will

bring surges of tropical moisture into the forecast area. This

solution of the models appears to be consistent with favorable MJO

conditions across the Atlantic.

&&

.AVIATION...Mostly VFR conditions expected to continue for most of

the flying area until 15/16Z. SHRA and ISOLD TSRA expected to

develop near TJBQ and TJMZ after 15/17Z. This activity may lead to

brief MVFR/IFR conditions. SFC winds should increase again to 10 to

15 kts with higher gusts after 15/13Z. Mostly VFR conditions

expected after 15/23Z.

&&

.MARINE...Typical marine conditions will prevail through the end

of the week. Seas of 3-5 feet will continue across the regional

waters through Sunday. However...conditions will deteriorate

somewhat on Monday as a tropical wave moves across the Leeward

Islands and Puerto Rico. Seas up to 7 feet are possible mainly

across the Caribbean Waters early next week.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...

SJU 88 79 90 79 / 40 20 20 10

STT 87 80 87 79 / 30 20 20 20

cycloneye
Category 5

Posts: 2,507

Puerto Rico Weather Jun 16, 2017 4:38:37 GMT -6

Quote

Post by cycloneye on Jun 16, 2017 4:38:37 GMT -6

rea Forecast Discussion

National Weather Service San Juan PR

358 AM AST Fri Jun 16 2017

.SYNOPSIS...A drier and more stable air mass will continue across

the region today. Upper level trough/low with axis extending from

the Atlantic southwest over the eastern Caribbean and the lesser

antilles will drift slowly westward over the local islands during

the weekend. A tropical wave over the tropical Atlantic will

continue to move westward approaching to the eastern Caribbean on

Monday.

&&

.SHORT TERM...Today through Sunday...

Cloudy skies prevailed across Puerto Rico and the U.S. Virgin

Islands overnight. Some isolated to scattered showers were noted

mainly across the Mona Passage. No shower activity was observed

over land areas. A drier airmass will encompass the local region

today. As a result, dry weather conditions are expected today

across the region. However, lingering moisture will combine with

daytime and local effect to produce another round of showers and

possible thunderstorms mainly across the western interior and

northwest sections of Puerto Rico. Elsewhere, mostly sunny skies

are expected. Some Saharan dust particles will continue across the

region. As a result, hazy skies can be also expected.

For Saturday, the aformentioned dry airmass will continue dominating

the local area. By Sunday, an area of moisture in the trade winds is

expected to affect the local region. Therefore, better chances for

shower and thunderstorms development is then expected mainly during

the afternoon hours.

.LONG TERM...Monday through Saturday...

Upper trough/low should is expected to retrograde back westward

Monday through Tuesday. This trough aloft will interact with a

tropical wave that is forecast to reach the local islands late

Monday and Tuesday. Model guidance suggests that another tropical

wave will move across the local region late Wednesday. These

features will bring back an unstable weather pattern to the

northeastern Caribbean. Overall...most of upcoming work week

looks unsettled as the combination of upper trough/TUTT and

tropical waves will bring abundant surges of moisture into the

forecast area. Looking well ahead, another stronger tropical wave

is expected to reach the region Saturday and Sunday next week.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR conditions will continue to prevail across all TAF

sites through at least 16/16Z. Brief periods of MVFR conditions with

mountain obscurations can be expected at TJMZ and TJBQ between

16/16Z through 16/22Z. Low level winds will be mainly east at 10 to

15 kts with higher gusts.

&&

.MARINE...Moderate to locally fresh winds will continue across

the local waters and passages today. Due to winds up to 20 knots,

mariners are urged to exercise caution.

cycloneye
Category 5

Posts: 2,507

Puerto Rico Weather Jun 17, 2017 4:39:37 GMT -6

Quote

Post by cycloneye on Jun 17, 2017 4:39:37 GMT -6

Area Forecast Discussion

National Weather Service San Juan PR

421 AM AST Sat Jun 17 2017

.SYNOPSIS...A drier and more stable air mass will continue across

the region until at least Sunday. Upper level trough/low with

axis extending from the Atlantic southward over the lesser

antilles will drift slowly westward over the local islands during

the rest of weekend. A weak tropical wave over the tropical

Atlantic will continue to move westward approaching to the eastern

Caribbean on Monday.

&&

.SHORT TERM...Today through Monday...

A mid level ridge is expected to keep an overall dry weather

pattern through late Sunday. However, diurnally induced afternoon

showers and isolated thunderstorms are possible across the western

portions of Puerto Rico. Trade wind showers could move from time

to time over the USVI and the eastern sections of PR, but no

significant rainfall amounts are expected. Upper ridge will

continue across the western Caribbean while a TUTT low northeast

of the area will move over the islands on Monday. At the same time

a weak tropical wave will move across the eastern Caribbean Sea.

This will result in an increase in moisture and therefore shower

and thunderstorm activity across the forecast area.

.LONG TERM...Tuesday through Sunday...

Upper trough/low over the northeast Caribbean is expected to

drift westward Wednesday through the end of the upcoming work

week as an upper level ridge builds over the forecast area from

the east. This trough aloft will interact with a weak tropical

wave that is forecast to reach the local islands on Tuesday to

result in an increase in showers and possible thunderstorms across

the local islands. Upper level ridge is then expected to hold

over the local islands Wednesday through at least Friday before

another upper low drift over the region from the northeast

Late Friday through the upcoming weekend.

Model guidance suggests that a second, but stronger tropical wave

will move across the windward islands and across the southeastern

Caribbean Wednesday and Thursday. The National Hurricane Center

continues to monitor this system for signs of development. Models

bring an increase in moisture over PR/USVI as this system enters

the Caribbean. Shower/thunderstorms activity is expected to

increase Monday through Wednesday as a couple of tropical waves

move across the region.

&&

.AVIATION...Mainly VFR conditions expected to prevail across all

terminals for the next 24 hours. SHRA/TSRA possible between 18z-22z

near the vicinity of TJBQ/TJMZ. Winds from the east at 10-15 knots

with higher gusts and sea breeze variations after 14z.

&&

.MARINE...Seas of 3-5 feet and winds of 10-20 kt are expected to

continue across the regional waters for the rest of weekend.

Seas will increase next week as a tropical wave moves across the

Eastern Caribbean.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...

SJU 88 78 88 78 / 20 30 30 30

STT 89 78 89 79 / 30 40 40 30

cycloneye
Category 5

Posts: 2,507

Puerto Rico Weather Jun 18, 2017 4:19:17 GMT -6

Quote

Post by cycloneye on Jun 18, 2017 4:19:17 GMT -6

Area Forecast Discussion

National Weather Service San Juan PR

425 AM AST Sun Jun 18 2017

.SYNOPSIS...Passing showers will continue to affect the U.S.

Virgin Islands and Eastern Puerto Rico this morning with diurnal

induced convection over western and interior Puerto Rico in the

afternoon. Two tropical waves will move across the Eastern

Caribbean between Monday and Wednesday bringing moist and unstable

conditions to the local region.

&&

.SHORT TERM...Today through Tuesday...

Diurnally induced afternoon showers and isolated thunderstorms

are expected mainly across western Puerto Rico. Also, showers

streaming from the eastern mountains of PR could affect the San

Juan metro area during the afternoon hours. Across the USVI, sunny

to partly cloudy skies will continue for much of the day with

streamers expected to develop around noon. Trade wind showers will

continue across the regional waters with a few moving from time

to time over portions of the USVI and the eastern sections of PR,

but no significant rainfall amounts are expected at the moment.

On Monday, an upper level trof northeast of the forecast area is

forecast to move over the islands. At lower levels a tropical wave

is expected to increase tropical moisture over the islands to

enhance shower and thunderstorm development. On Tuesday, lingering

moisture and trof aloft will continue to aid the development of

diurnally induced afternoon showers and isolated thunderstorms.

Later on Tuesday night, a more vigorous tropical wave is forecast to

move across the Caribbean Sea and bring squally weather across the

Caribbean waters and portions of the islands.

.LONG TERM...Wednesday through Monday...

Model guidance continues to indicated that a strong tropical wave

across the tropical Atlantic, will move over the eastern

Caribbean late Tuesday, then passing south of Puerto Rico and the

U.S. Virgin Islands on Wednesday. The National Hurricane Center

continues to monitor this system for signs of development. As a

result...moisture and instability will increase across the

region...favoring the development of showers and thunderstorms

with possible heavy rains and gusty winds. After the passage of

the wave, an upper level ridge is expected to build and hold over

the region late Wednesday through at least Friday. Then, upper

ridge will begin to erode as an upper level trough drift over the

forecast area from the northeast Saturday through the end of the

forecast period.

&&

.AVIATION...Mainly VFR conditions will prevail through the forecast

period. However, SHRA/TSRA possible between 18z-22z near TJBQ/TJMZ,

resulting in tempo MVFR and VCTS. Low level winds will continue from

the east at 12-20 knots. Sea breeze variations expected around 14z.

&&

.MARINE...Seas of 3-5 feet and winds of 10-20 kt are expected to

continue across the coastal waters today. Winds and seas will

increase early in the week as two tropical wave moves across the

Eastern Caribbean between Monday and Wednesday. This will likely

result in Small Craft Advisories early next week.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...

SJU 88 78 87 78 / 20 20 20 30

STT 89 79 89 78 / 40 20 30 40

cycloneye
Category 5

Posts: 2,507

Puerto Rico Weather Jun 19, 2017 4:17:22 GMT -6

Quote

Post by cycloneye on Jun 19, 2017 4:17:22 GMT -6

Area Forecast Discussion

National Weather Service San Juan PR

452 AM AST Mon Jun 19 2017

.SYNOPSIS...SFC high pressure across the central Atlantic is

expected to remain meandering over the area for the next few days,

bringing east to ESE winds. Tropical wave is expected to approach

the local area today, causing an increase in moisture and shower

activity. Potential Tropical Cyclone Two, along 54W is expected to

continue moving west and pass south of the local islands on

Wednesday. Upper low near the local area today and Tuesday as it

moves west and away of the local area.

&&

.SHORT TERM...Today through Wednesday...

A tropical wave moving west across the Caribbean waters is

interacting with an upper level trough, resulting in scattered

showers and isolated thunderstorms across the forecast area. Shower

and thunderstorm activity is forecast to increase later in the day

as showers and thunderstorms are expected to develop over the

mountain ranges of Puerto Rico and move over the northern and western

sections of the island. Urban and small stream flooding is possible

with the heaviest showers this afternoon. On Tuesday, lingering

moisture and trof aloft will continue to aid the development of

diurnally induced afternoon showers and isolated thunderstorms.

By Tuesday evening into Wednesday morning, a tropical disturbance,

currently called Potential Tropical Cyclone Two, located along

54W, several hundred miles east- southeast of the southern

Windward Islands, has a 90 percent chance of developing into a

tropical cyclone during the next 48 hours according to the latest

forecast by NHC. This disturbance is forecast to move across the

Caribbean Sea and bring squally weather across the Caribbean

waters and portions of the islands.

.LONG TERM...Thursday through Tuesday...

After the tropical disturbance passes through our south on

Wednesday, drier air will gradually move in on Thursday and remain

near normal through Saturday, which will probably cause locally

induced showers and thunderstorms once the moisture combines with

the local effects. However, on Sunday another tropical wave is

forecast to pass through the local area with an upper low

positioned just west of the local islands, which would cause an

increase in shower and thunderstorm activity over the local area.

Weather conditions to improve early on the following workweek.

&&

.AVIATION...Tropical wave moving across the eastern Caribbean

will result in SHRA/TSRA across much of the regional waters and

islands. Tempo MVFR conditions possible across TNCM/TKPK/TIST/TISX

through 12z...then spreading across the mainland PR terminals

through 22z. Low level winds from the east-southeast at 14-22 kts.

&&

.MARINE...Small craft advisory will go into effect this evening

across the offshore Atlantic waters due to seas that could reach 7

feet. Otherwise the rest of the local waters should observe seas

generally between 3 and 6 feet. Small craft operators are urged to

exercise caution. There is a moderate risk of rip currents across

most of our local beaches.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...

SJU 87 79 88 79 / 50 40 40 20

STT 89 80 89 79 / 50 40 40 40

Shoutbox

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Puerto Rico Weather

Post by cycloneye on Jun 6, 2017 4:16:01 GMT -6

Post by cycloneye on Jun 7, 2017 4:08:58 GMT -6

Post by cycloneye on Jun 8, 2017 4:21:19 GMT -6

Post by cycloneye on Jun 9, 2017 4:09:53 GMT -6

Post by cycloneye on Jun 9, 2017 4:10:09 GMT -6

Post by cycloneye on Jun 10, 2017 4:21:37 GMT -6

Post by cycloneye on Jun 11, 2017 4:42:45 GMT -6

Post by cycloneye on Jun 12, 2017 4:13:19 GMT -6

Post by cycloneye on Jun 13, 2017 3:58:11 GMT -6

Post by cycloneye on Jun 14, 2017 4:27:10 GMT -6

Post by cycloneye on Jun 15, 2017 4:08:43 GMT -6

Post by cycloneye on Jun 16, 2017 4:38:37 GMT -6

Post by cycloneye on Jun 17, 2017 4:39:37 GMT -6

Post by cycloneye on Jun 18, 2017 4:19:17 GMT -6

Post by cycloneye on Jun 19, 2017 4:17:22 GMT -6

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