Puerto Rico Weather Aug 11, 2017 4:29:36 GMT -6
Post by cycloneye on Aug 11, 2017 4:29:36 GMT -6
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service San Juan PR
430 AM AST Fri Aug 11 2017
A weak surface low northeast of the region and its associated
tropical wave extending from the surface low across the northeast
Caribbean this morning will continue to move west northwest today
and tonight. The wave is being generated by an upper level trough
that will remain in tandem with its movements. These features
will increase the moisture across the forecast today and
Saturday, but model guidance indicated that the bulk of the
moisture is expected to pass mostly north of the region.
.SHORT TERM...Today through Sunday
Scattered showers with isolated thunderstorms were observed
mainly across the Atlantic waters overnight. Some of these showers
moved across the north coast of Puerto Rico affecting mainly the
municipalities of Arecibo, Hatillo and Camuy. Other showers
affected the U.S. Virgin Islands from time to time. Rainfall
accumulation was less than half inch. For this morning, some
showers will affect the local islands but these showers will move
quickly. For this afternoon, available moisture will combine with
daytime heating and local effects to produce scattered to numerous
showers with thunderstorms mainly across the northern half of
Puerto Rico as surface winds shifts from a southeasterly to a more
Due to a southerly wind flow at the surface, warmer than normal
temperatures are expected along the northern slopes of Puerto Rico.
As a result, near record maximum temperatures can be expected. The
record maximum temperature at the Luis Munoz Marin International
airport for today is 92F set in 2011.
For the weekend, a drier air mass is expected to encompass the region,
which will result in slightly less shower activity across the region.
.LONG TERM...Monday through Friday...
Patches of moisture embedded in the trades will move across the
region on Monday, before a tropical wave moves over the northeast
Caribbean Monday night into early Tuesday. This wave will
increase the shower and thunderstorm activity across the forecast
area. Model guidance suggests that after the passage of the wave,
a large area of SAL, extending from near the surface all the way
to mid levels is expected to encompass the region Tuesday through
at least Wednesday. By that time, some moisture will be seen
across the region especially in the afternoon across interior and
western Puerto Rico in typical diurnal pattern, but not
significant or widespread precipitation is expected. Another, but
stronger tropical wave will move through the region Thursday and
.AVIATION...Mostly VFR conditions are expected to prevail across the
local flying area until at least 11/16Z. Cloudiness and showers will
gradually increase across mountain ranges of Puerto Rico, inducing
periods of SHRA/TSRA in and around TJSJ, TJMZ and TJBQ through
11/22Z. Low level winds will be mainly south southeast at 10 kts.
Local buoys continued to indicate winds around 15 knots and seas
at 6 feet or less diminishing to 3-5 feet by the weekend, remaining
below SCA criteria. Model guidance suggest increasing seas and
winds by the upcoming week as another tropical wave move by the
islands on Tuesday.
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 91 79 92 80 / 40 30 30 30
STT 89 81 90 80 / 50 50 20 40