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cycloneye
Category 5

Posts: 2,507

Puerto Rico Weather Aug 11, 2017 4:29:36 GMT -6

Quote

Post by cycloneye on Aug 11, 2017 4:29:36 GMT -6

Area Forecast Discussion

National Weather Service San Juan PR

430 AM AST Fri Aug 11 2017

.SYNOPSIS...

A weak surface low northeast of the region and its associated

tropical wave extending from the surface low across the northeast

Caribbean this morning will continue to move west northwest today

and tonight. The wave is being generated by an upper level trough

that will remain in tandem with its movements. These features

will increase the moisture across the forecast today and

Saturday, but model guidance indicated that the bulk of the

moisture is expected to pass mostly north of the region.

&&

.SHORT TERM...Today through Sunday

Scattered showers with isolated thunderstorms were observed

mainly across the Atlantic waters overnight. Some of these showers

moved across the north coast of Puerto Rico affecting mainly the

municipalities of Arecibo, Hatillo and Camuy. Other showers

affected the U.S. Virgin Islands from time to time. Rainfall

accumulation was less than half inch. For this morning, some

showers will affect the local islands but these showers will move

quickly. For this afternoon, available moisture will combine with

daytime heating and local effects to produce scattered to numerous

showers with thunderstorms mainly across the northern half of

Puerto Rico as surface winds shifts from a southeasterly to a more

southerly component.

Due to a southerly wind flow at the surface, warmer than normal

temperatures are expected along the northern slopes of Puerto Rico.

As a result, near record maximum temperatures can be expected. The

record maximum temperature at the Luis Munoz Marin International

airport for today is 92F set in 2011.

For the weekend, a drier air mass is expected to encompass the region,

which will result in slightly less shower activity across the region.

.LONG TERM...Monday through Friday...

Patches of moisture embedded in the trades will move across the

region on Monday, before a tropical wave moves over the northeast

Caribbean Monday night into early Tuesday. This wave will

increase the shower and thunderstorm activity across the forecast

area. Model guidance suggests that after the passage of the wave,

a large area of SAL, extending from near the surface all the way

to mid levels is expected to encompass the region Tuesday through

at least Wednesday. By that time, some moisture will be seen

across the region especially in the afternoon across interior and

western Puerto Rico in typical diurnal pattern, but not

significant or widespread precipitation is expected. Another, but

stronger tropical wave will move through the region Thursday and

Friday.

&&

.AVIATION...Mostly VFR conditions are expected to prevail across the

local flying area until at least 11/16Z. Cloudiness and showers will

gradually increase across mountain ranges of Puerto Rico, inducing

periods of SHRA/TSRA in and around TJSJ, TJMZ and TJBQ through

11/22Z. Low level winds will be mainly south southeast at 10 kts.

&&

.MARINE...

Local buoys continued to indicate winds around 15 knots and seas

at 6 feet or less diminishing to 3-5 feet by the weekend, remaining

below SCA criteria. Model guidance suggest increasing seas and

winds by the upcoming week as another tropical wave move by the

islands on Tuesday.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...

SJU 91 79 92 80 / 40 30 30 30

STT 89 81 90 80 / 50 50 20 40

cycloneye
Category 5

Posts: 2,507

Puerto Rico Weather Aug 12, 2017 4:43:35 GMT -6

Quote

Post by cycloneye on Aug 12, 2017 4:43:35 GMT -6

Area Forecast Discussion

National Weather Service San Juan PR

537 AM AST Sat Aug 12 2017

.SYNOPSIS...A weak surface low north of the region and a tropical

wave across the central Caribbean will continue to move westward

as a Subtropical Ridge builds from the east over the Northeast

Caribbean. A southerly wind flow is expected to continue across

the region through Saturday. An induce surface perturbation with a

surge of moisture is forecast to move near the islands by Sunday.

Another tropical waves is expected by late Monday or Tuesday.

&&

.SHORT TERM...Today through Monday...

Deep east to southeasterly wind flow will result in normal to

above normal temperatures today across the local islands. Heat

index should range between 102-107 degrees across the southern and

northern coastal areas. TUTT low to the northwest of the forecast

area will continue to move away as ridge builds from the east.

Morning showers are expected to continue near the USVI and the

eastern sections of PR. Mid level dry air will filter across the

region for the next few days...and best moisture will remain below

800mb. Therefore, afternoon shower activity with possible

thunderstorm development is expected mainly over the northwest

portions of PR each afternoon, due to diurnal effects. Patches of

low level moisture embedded on the trade winds are expected to

increase on Sunday evening through Monday.

.LONG TERM...Tuesday through Saturday...

A tropical wave along 45 West is expected to reach the region

Monday night into early Tuesday. This wave in combination with a

developing upper trough north and northeast of the forecast areas

will produce an increase in showers and thunderstorms across the

local islands. However, the wave and the upper trough are

expected to move rapidly westward and away from the region.

Accordingly to latest model guidance, after the passage of the

wave, an area relative drier air accompanied with Saharan dust

will encompass the region late Tuesday through at least

Wednesday. By late Wednesday, a large area of moisture oriented

southwest to northeast is expected to move across the northeast

Caribbean increasing again the chances of showers and

thunderstorms across the region until at least Thursday. The

typical diurnal induced shower and thunderstorm activity will

return to the forecast area on Friday. Looking well ahead, the GFS

model guidance suggest that a strong tropical accompanied by an

upper level low will move over the northeast Caribbean by the

upcoming weekend inducing widespread shower and thunderstorm

activity with possible gusty winds across the local islands and

surrounding waters. Stay Tuned.

&&

.AVIATION...MVFR conditions expected to prevail through the forecast

period. However, SHRA/TSRA expected to develop between 16z-22z

across the interior and western sections of PR, impacting TJBQ/TJMZ.

ESE winds at 7-18 kts below FL200...becoming ENE after 13/00z.

&&

.MARINE...

Local buoys continued to indicate tranquil marine conditions with

seas below 5 feet and winds around 15 knots. This condtions are

expected to prevail through the weekend. Marine conditions are

forecast to deteriorate by the upcoming week as another tropical

wave move by the islands late Monday or Tuesday.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...

SJU 92 80 91 79 / 30 30 30 50

STT 90 80 91 81 / 20 40 40 50

cycloneye
Category 5

Posts: 2,507

Puerto Rico Weather Aug 15, 2017 4:45:33 GMT -6

Quote

Post by cycloneye on Aug 15, 2017 4:45:33 GMT -6

Area Forecast Discussion

National Weather Service San Juan PR

521 AM AST Tue Aug 15 2017

.SYNOPSIS...A tropical wave will exit the area during the morning

hours. Hazy skies due to Saharan dust are expected later this

morning and should continue through early Wednesday. Another

tropical wave is forecast to move across the islands on Thursday

and increase shower and thunderstorm activity.

&&

.SHORT TERM...Tuesday through Thursday...A weak mid level ridge

will prevail through Thursday with some strengthening expected by

the end of the workweek. At upper levels, as a TUTT low shifts

westward on Wednesday, an upper level ridge will then build across

the forecast area. A broad surface high pressure across the

central Atlantic will continue to yield moderate to fresh easterly

winds. A tropical wave will continue to move away throughout the

day, with the next tropical wave passage expected on Thursday.

Showers with isolated thunderstorms which are associated with a

tropical wave moving across the eastern Caribbean are still possible

across the local waters as well as portions of USVI and E PR early

this morning. Although the tropical wave and associated low level

moisture is expected to move away by the afternoon hours, lingering

moisture will continue to prevail to result in locally induced

showers and thunderstorms across west Puerto Rico in the afternoon.

Fair weather is then expected tonight through at least early

Thursday when the next tropical wave is expected to move across the

local isles. As the drier air mass moves in this afternoon, hazy

skies are likely.

.LONG TERM...Friday through Wednesday...In the long range there

are a couple of areas of interest...there is an area of low

pressure, located several hundred miles west-southwest of the

Cabo Verde Islands that is forecast to move across the Caribbean

Sea between Friday and Saturday. The National Hurricane Center is

currently giving a 60% chance of formation during the next 5 days.

Then, two tropical waves are expected to follow between

Sunday/Monday and the other one on Wednesday. However, this is too

far in the future to know exactly the potential impacts and

possible tropical development of these systems.

&&

.AVIATION....Mostly VFR conds expected at all TAF sites with some

-RA/VCSH at JSJ as well as USVI terminals early this morning. As

a tropical wave moves away throughout the day, VFR conds to

continue with hazy skies likely. However, visibilities expected to

remain P6SM. Easterly winds 15-20 knots aft 15/13z.

&&

.MARINE...Seas should range between 4-6 feet across most of the

local waters and east winds at 15-20 knots should prevail today.

Therefore, small crafts should exercise caution across the local

waters and passages. Small craft advisories could be required by

late Wednesday night as seas up to 7 feet are possible across the

offshore waters and the Anegada Passage. There is a moderate risk

of rip currents for much of the coastal areas of the

islands...except in the protected west facing beaches.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...

SJU 90 79 88 78 / 20 20 20 30

STT 91 80 91 80 / 20 20 20 50

cycloneye
Category 5

Posts: 2,507

Puerto Rico Weather Aug 16, 2017 4:55:42 GMT -6

Quote

Post by cycloneye on Aug 16, 2017 4:55:42 GMT -6

Area Forecast Discussion

National Weather Service San Juan PR

542 AM AST Wed Aug 16 2017

.SYNOPSIS...A tropical wave just east of the Lesser Antilles will

move across the forecast area later tonight through Thursday.

Tutt low will continue just to the west-northwest of the forecast

area through Friday as an upper ridge builds from the north.

Saharan air layer will gradually diminish today ahead of the

tropical wave.

&&

.SHORT TERM...Today through Friday...A mid to upper level ridge

is expected to build across the forecast area Thursday night, as a

trough aloft/TUTT low which is now located across the northeast

Caribbean shifts westward. However, the ridge pattern aloft is

expected to be short-lived as trofiness returns to the local isles

on Sunday. At lower levels, a broad high pressure across the

central Atlantic will continue to yield moderate to fresh easterly

winds through the forecast period. The next tropical wave passage

is expected as soon as late tonight into Thursday.

Under this evolving pattern, expect fair weather conditions through

the morning hours followed by locally induced showers and

thunderstorms across southwest Puerto Rico in the afternoon. The

chance for showers and thunderstorms -squally weather type- will

increase across the forecast area late tonight into Thursday due to

the proximity of TUTT low and a tropical wave moving across the

eastern Caribbean.

At this time, the most active convection and the best chance for

heavy rainfall is across US Virgin Islands and eastern Puerto Rico

Thursday morning. Urban and small stream flooding likely. Shower and

thunder development across west Puerto Rico Thursday afternoon will

be dependent on cloud cover. As the tropical wave moves away and an

upper level ridge builds, a fair weather pattern is then expected to

prevail on Friday.

.LONG TERM...Saturday through Wednesday...In the medium range, an

area of low pressure near 46W longitude, which the National

Hurricane Center is giving a 40% chance of formation during the next

5 days...is forecast to move across the Caribbean Sea between Friday

and Saturday...and remain south of the islands. Another area of low

pressure near 34W longitude, that NHC is also giving a 40% chance of

formation during the next 5 days, is currently expected to move

close to the forecast area as an open trough late in the weekend. In

the long range, both GFS and ECMWF 16/00z runs indicated a surface

low pressure area passing well to the northeast of the forecast area

by midweek.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR conds are expected at all TAF sites in the morning

with brief MVFR conds possible at JMZ/JPS in SHRA/TSRA btw 16/16-

22z. As a tropical wave moves across the eastern Caribbean,

SHRA/TSRA and MVFR conds are expected in and around the Leeward

terminals late this afternoon, spreading across the USVI terminal

and JSJ late tonight. Easterly winds 15-20 knots aft 16/13z.

&&

.MARINE...Seas are expected to increase later today ahead of the

tropical wave between 6-8 feet across the Anegada Passage and across

both Atlantic and Caribbean offshore waters through at least

Thursday. Small craft advisories are in effect. East to northeast

winds between 15 to 20 knots will prevail today. Squally weather is

possible early on Thursday as the wave exits the local area. A

moderate to high risk of rip currents is expected for the next few

days across PR, Culebra, Vieques and St. Croix.

cycloneye
Category 5

Posts: 2,507

Puerto Rico Weather Aug 19, 2017 4:19:14 GMT -6

Quote

Post by cycloneye on Aug 19, 2017 4:19:14 GMT -6

Area Forecast Discussion

National Weather Service San Juan PR

520 AM AST Sat Aug 19 2017

.SYNOPSIS...Tropical Storm Harvey will continue to move westward

across the Caribbean Sea, passing well south of the forecast area

throughout the day. The chance for showers and thunderstorms are

expected to increase across the local isles during the weekend as

the peripheral moisture of TS Harvey reaches the forecast area as

well as invest 92L likely to move northeast of the area on

Sunday-Mon.

&&

.SHORT TERM...Today through Monday...

Partly cloudy skies prevailed across Puerto Rico and the U.S.

Virgin Islands overnight. Some showers affected mainly the

northern U.S. Virgin Islands and the eastern half of Puerto Rico.

Some of these showers produced brief periods of moderate to heavy

rainfall.

An increase in shower activity is expected today as trade winds will

transport patches of low level moisture across the region. This

moisture in combination with daytime heating and local effects will

produce scattered showers with isolated thunderstorms this afternoon

mainly across the Cordillera Central of Puerto Rico. In the meantime,

Tropical Storm Harvey will continue to pass well south of the region

today.

By Sunday, an area of low pressure is expected to pass mainly north

of the area. However, plenty of moisture associated with this system

will aid in the development of showers and thunderstorms once again

Sunday afternoon and will continue into the early morning hours on

Monday. By Monday afternoon, at this time, showers and thunderstorms

are expected to develop mainly north of the Cordillera Central of

Puerto Rico. Rest of the area, some passing showers are expected.

.LONG TERM...Tuesday through Sunday...

As moisture associated with invest 92L moves away, a drier air

mass in expected to encompass the forecast area on Tuesday. This

drier air mass is expected to be short-lived as a mid to upper

level trough establishes north enhancing moisture advection Wed-

Thu. By the end of the workweek and into the upcoming weekend, a

mid level ridge is then expected to build across the central

Atlantic and into the northeast Caribbean to result once again in

moisture erosion. Therefore a seasonal weather pattern is expected

to prevail much of the forecast period with locally induced

showers and thunderstorms each day. At this time, the best chance

for shower and thunder activity is expected Wed-Thu due to

moisture advection as the proximity of the upper trough.

&&

.AVIATION...Mainly VFR conditions will prevail across all TAF sites

through at least 19/16Z. Periods of MVFR conditions with mountain

obscurations will prevail across TJBQ and TJMZ from 19/16Z through

19/22Z in SHRA/TSRA. VCSH can be expected elsewhere.

&&

.MARINE...Tropical Storm Harvey will continue to move westward

across the Caribbean Sea, passing well south of the forecast area

throughout the day. This will result in hazardous seas 8 to 10

feet and winds 20 to 25 knots particularly across the Caribbean

waters and local passages. Hazardous seas will continue to prevail

across the offshore Atlantic waters through Monday as an area of

low pressure east northeast of the Leeward Islands moves to the

northeast of the forecast area.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...

SJU 89 79 90 80 / 40 40 50 30

STT 91 81 88 81 / 40 50 50 60

mrjamie GCWX Supporter Vice President \| Chief Consultant Posts: 3,056	Puerto Rico Weather Sept 5, 2017 9:32:09 GMT -6 via mobile Quote Select Post Deselect Post Link to Post Back to Top Post by mrjamie on Sept 5, 2017 9:32:09 GMT -6 Take care down there.
	GCWX Vice President \| Chief Consultant CoCoRaHs Station: LA-ST-8

coffeecups GCWX Supporter Posts: 812	Puerto Rico Weather Sept 7, 2017 15:25:20 GMT -6 Quote Select Post Deselect Post Link to Post Back to Top Post by coffeecups on Sept 7, 2017 15:25:20 GMT -6 Yes, take care people of Puerto Rico!

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