Puerto Rico Weather

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Puerto Rico Weather Jul 1, 2014 4:00:04 GMT -6

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Post by Deleted on Jul 1, 2014 4:00:04 GMT -6

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
514 AM AST TUE JUL 1 2014

.SYNOPSIS...UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL DOMINATE THE FLOW ACROSS THE
WESTERN ATLANTIC THE REST OF THE WEEK. HOWEVER...MID-LEVEL DRY AIR
WITH SAHARAN DUST EMBEDDED WILL LIMIT THE SHOWER ACTIVITY ACROSS
THE LOCAL ISLANDS THROUGH FRIDAY. THE NEXT TROPICAL WAVE WILL MOVE
ACROSS THE LOCAL REGION DURING THE UPCOMING WEEKEND...BRINGING A
FEW ROUNDS OF SCATTERED SHOWERS ACROSS THE REGION.

&&

.DISCUSSION...LATEST SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS THE AXIS OF THE TROPICAL
WAVE OVER THE MONA PASSAGE. IN ADDITION...SATELLITE DERIVED PWAT ANALYSIS
INDICATES THE PRECIPITABLE WATER MAXIMA ACROSS THE MONA PASSAGE AND
EASTERN HISPANOLA. THIS WAVE WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE AWAY FROM THE REGION
TODAY...ALLOWING CLOUDS TO DIMINISH ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA. HOWEVER...
CLOUDINESS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE ANEGADA PASSAGE AND THE LEEWARD
ISLANDS IN RESPONSE TO THE UPPER TROUGH NORTHEAST OF THE REGION.
ALTHOUGH...MOISTURE WILL DECREASE ACROSS THE REGION TODAY...RESIDUAL
MOISTURE WILL COMBINE WITH LOCAL EFFECTS AND SEA BREEZE CONVERGENCE
TO PRODUCE SCATTERED CONVECTION ACROSS NW PR THIS AFTERNOON. IN THE
WAKE OF THE TROPICAL WAVE...DRIER/DUSTY AIR MASS WILL ADVECT ACROSS
THE FORECAST AREA. A STRONG SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE CENTRAL
ATLANTIC WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH SAHARAN DUST PARTICLES ACROSS THE
NORTHEAST CARIBBEAN ISLANDS MOST OF THE WEEK. NAAPS AEROSOL MODEL
SUGGESTS DECENT CONCENTRATIONS OF SAHARAN DUST TODAY AND WEDNESDAY...
GRADUALLY DIMINISHING THE REST OF THE WEEK. THEREFORE...EXPECT HAZY
SKIES AND SOME AREAS OF REDUCED VISIBILITIES OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL
DAYS... ESPECIALLY OVER THE NEXT 36-48 HOURS. ALTHOUGH...NO SIGNIFICANT
WEATHER MAKERS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH FRIDAY...SEA BREEZE CONVERGENCE
OVER WESTERN PR WILL INDUCE THE DEVELOPMENT OF ISOLATED SHOWERS AND
A THUNDERSTORM OR TWO EACH AFTERNOON. THE NEXT TROPICAL WAVE IS FORECAST
TO REACH THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN DURING THE UPCOMING WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE TO PREVAIL ACROSS MOST TAF
SITES. BRIEF PERIODS OF MVFR CONDITIONS CAN BE EXPECTED OVER TJMZ
AND TJBQ WITH MOUNTAIN OBSCURATIONS IN SHRA BETWEEN 01/18Z-22Z.LOW
LEVEL WINDS WILL CONTINUE MAINLY EAST TO EAST SOUTHEAST AT 10 TO 15
KTS.

&&

.MARINE...WINDS 15 KT STRENGTHENING TO NEAR 20KT DURING THE FOURTH
OF JULY WEEKEND. SEAS 3-5 FT INCREASING 4-6 FT DURING THE WEEKEND.
HOWEVER...SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW ADVISORY CRITERIA ALL
WEEK.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 85 80 89 79 / 20 20 20 30
STT 81 80 90 80 / 20 20 20 30

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Puerto Rico Weather Jul 2, 2014 4:30:56 GMT -6

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Post by Deleted on Jul 2, 2014 4:30:56 GMT -6

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
419 AM AST WED JUL 2 2014

.DISCUSSION...CLOUDS PASSING MAINLY OFFSHORE HAVE LITTLE OR NO
ASSOCIATED RAIN. SAHARAN DUST/HAZE REMAINS IN AREA AS WELL BUT
WILL MOVE WEST TONIGHT.

UPPER LOW ABOVE 500 MB NEAR 20N/60W HAS A TRAILING TROUGH
EXTENDING OVER CARIBBEAN WHILE THE LOW WILL MIGRATE WSW AND OVER
PR/USVI TODAY. SHOWERS WILL OCCUR AGAIN TODAY OVER WEST PR BUT
FEWER THAN OCCURRED ON TUE AS THE PRECIPITABLE WATER WILL BE BELOW
1.5 INCHES. A LOWER LEVEL TROUGH ARRIVING ON THU FROM WSW WILL
HELP SOME.

&&

.AVIATION...ALL TAF SITES TO BE VFR TODAY. SAHARAN DUST WILL LIKELY
CONTINUE TO GIVE FALSE CEILINGS AT TIMES AT TIST/TISX UNTIL THIS
AIR MASS MOVES ON TONIGHT.

&&

.MARINE...WINDS/SEA UP TO 21 KNOTS/6 FT TO CONTINUE AT TIMES
THROUGH THIS WEEK. MODERATE TO LOCALLY FRESH TRADES TO PERSIST.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...DRY AIR ABOVE 850 MB IS NOT EXPECTED TO REACH THE
SURFACE AS THE UPPER TROUGH PASSING OVER WILL DEEPEN THE MARINE
LAYER. CONSIDERED POSSIBILITY OF RED FLAG CONDITIONS AS SUFFICIENT
WINDS WILL RETURN AND FUELS TO CONTINUE DRY...HOWEVER 10 HOUR
MOISTURE REMAIN ON HIGH SIDE OF 8 PCT TODAY THEN WILL SEE ABOUT
ANY SHOWERS ON THU. MARINE AIR SHOULD ALSO KEEP DEW POINTS AT LOW
LEVELS ABOVE 70F AND THUS RELATIVE HUMIDITY AND FUEL MOISTURE
SLIGHTLY LESS THAN CRITICAL.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 91 79 89 79 / 0 30 30 30
STT 89 80 90 79 / 0 20 20 30

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Puerto Rico Weather Jul 3, 2014 4:55:52 GMT -6

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Post by Deleted on Jul 3, 2014 4:55:52 GMT -6

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
437 AM AST THU JUL 3 2014

.DISCUSSION...WEAK TROPICAL WAVE TO ARRIVE TODAY. SHOWERS
CURRENTLY ARE OVER OPEN WATERS AND IN ADVANCE OF THE 700 MB
TROUGH AXIS...WHICH ARRIVES AT USVI ABOUT NOON SO BEST CHANCE OF
SHOWERS MAY BE DURING MORNING. THESE SHOWERS ARE SMALL WHILE
MOVING QUICKLY (25-30 KT) AND WILL NOT YIELD MUCH RAINFALL.

A SIMILAR WAVE CURRENTLY ABOUT 45W IS DUE TO ARRIVE ON SAT.
CONTAINING ONLY A MODERATE LEVEL OF PRECIPITABLE WATER IT WILL
ALSO IS NOT EXPECTED TO PRODUCE RAINFALL IN QUANTITIES MORE
TYPICAL FOR THIS TIME OF SEASON.

DRIER AIR ARRIVES ON FRI BUT ESPECIALLY MON/TUE AS ANOTHER ROUND
OF SAHARAN AIR/DUST IS MODELED TO REACH THE ISLANDS.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL ACROSS THE
LOCAL TERMINALS THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. PASSING SHRA OVER THE
AREA WILL CAUSE VCSH ACROSS MOST OF THE LOCAL TERMINALS WITH TSRA
DEVELOPING ACROSS WESTERN PR AFTER 03/17Z...CAUSING INCREASE IN
CLOUDINESS OVER PR AND LIKELY VCSH/VCTS FOR TJBQ AND TJMZ. SFC
WINDS WILL BE AROUND 10 KTS UNTIL 03/13Z...INCREASING TO 10-20 KTS
THEREAFTER FROM THE EAST WITH SEA BREEZE VARIATIONS.

&&

.MARINE...WINDS UP TO 20 KNOTS ON CARIBBEAN AND JUST OFFSHORE OF
NORTHWEST PR COAST WILL PRODUCE SEAS UP TO 5-6 FEET AT TIMES
TODAY AND THROUGH THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND. LONG FETCH SWELLS OF 6-7
FEET ACROSS THE TROPICAL ATLANTIC WILL BE MUTED AT THE LEEWARD
ISLANDS AND WILL NOT TRANSLATE WELL TO PR/USVI.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 89 81 92 79 / 20 30 30 30
STT 89 79 90 80 / 20 30 30 50

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Puerto Rico Weather Jul 4, 2014 4:45:37 GMT -6

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Post by Deleted on Jul 4, 2014 4:45:37 GMT -6

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
441 AM AST FRI JUL 4 2014

.DISCUSSION...ISOLATED SHOWERS ON ATLANTIC/CARIBBEAN WATERS WILL
END LATER THIS MORNING OR EARLY AFTERNOON. TEMPERATURE/DEW POINT
DEPRESSION HAD ALREADY EXCEEDED 16C ON 00Z MACM SOUNDING AND
EXPECT TO SEE CLOSE TO THAT AT TJSJ THIS MORNING. SO DRYING TO BE
ONGOING THROUGH TODAY. HOWEVER AFTERNOON HEATING WILL BE ENOUGH TO
GENERATE A FEW SHOWERS OR THUNDER OVER WESTERN PR.

ANOTHER TROPICAL WAVE...CURRENTLY NEAR 53W...TO ARRIVE ON SATURDAY.
GFS/ECMWF/UKMET ALL WEAKEN THE WAVE BEFORE ARRIVAL BUT THE EXPECTED
PRECIPITABLE NEAR 2 INCHES WILL BE ENOUGH FOR MORE SHOWERS THAN
HAS BEEN THE CASE LATELY. THE WEAKENING WILL CAUSE SLIGHTLY LESS
WIND ALOFT THAN OCCURRED WITH THE PREVIOUS WAVE ON THU AND WILL
HAVE LESS MID-LEVEL DRY AIR. SO THE POTENTIAL FOR STRONG WIND
GUSTS IN SHOWERS APPEARS LESS...BUT SOME WIND GUSTS WILL BE
NOTICABLE. NO THUNDER WAS ASSOCIATED WITH THIS WAVE OVERNIGHT AND
EXPECT ANY THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT TO REQUIRE AFTERNOON HEATING
OVER WESTERN PR.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS ALL TAF SITES THROUGH
THE FORECAST PERIOD. VCTS EXPECTED FOR TJMZ AFTER 04/17Z AS
SHRA/TSRA DEVELOP ACROSS WESTERN PR. LOW LEVEL WINDS WILL BE MAINLY
FROM THE EAST AT AROUND 10 KNOTS UNTIL 04/13Z...GRADUALLY INCREASING
TO 10-20 KTS FROM THE EAST WITH SEA BREEZE VARIATIONS AFTER 04/13Z.

&&

.MARINE...LITTLE CHANGE TODAY OR INTO NEXT WEEK. WINDS/SEAS TO REMAIN
SLIGHTLY SHORT OF SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CRITERIA. LONG FETCH SWELLS
ACROSS TROPICAL ATLANTIC REMAIN MUTED BY LEEWARDS. A FEW SHOWERS
MAY CAUSE LOCALLY HIGHER WINDS/SEAS ON SATURDAY.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...400-200 MB RIDGE BECOMING MORE DOMINATE TODAY
WHILE MUCH DRIER AIR APPROACHES FROM EAST. PRECIPITABLE WATER WILL
FALL TO AROUND 1.2 INCHES IN AFTERNOON WHILE THE SUBSIDENCE
INVERSION SINKS TO NEAR 4 KFT. MAX TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER
80S/NEAR 90 ON SOUTHERN PR COAST SHOULD BE ENOUGH TO MIX SOME OF
THE VERY DRY AIR (17C-19C TEMPERATURE-DEW POINT SPREAD ACCORDING
TO GFS MODEL SOUNDING) TOWARDS SURFACE. THERE SHOULD BE A LITTLE
LESS WIND THAN HAS BEEN THE CASE FOR SEVERAL DAYS BUT ENOUGH TO
ENHANCE DRYING OF FUELS AND AID MIXING. THESE FACTORS IN ADDITION
TO THE VERY DRY CONDITIONS THERE SUGGEST RED FLAG WARNING THOUGH
DO NOT BELIEVE THAT WILL OCCUR ELSEWHERE.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 90 78 89 78 / 10 30 40 30
STT 89 79 89 80 / 10 50 50 40

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Puerto Rico Weather Jul 5, 2014 4:55:42 GMT -6

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Post by Deleted on Jul 5, 2014 4:55:42 GMT -6

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
521 AM AST SAT JUL 5 2014

.SYNOPSIS...TROPICAL WAVE WILL MOVE INTO THE LOCAL AREA
TODAY...INCREASING INSTABILITY AND CAUSING SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE
THUNDERSTORMS WITH STRONG GUSTY WINDS.

&&

.DISCUSSION...LATEST OBSERVATIONS FROM THE SURROUNDING ISLANDS
INDICATE THAT THE TROPICAL WAVE EXPECTED FOR TODAY IS CAUSING WIND
GUSTS OF OVER 30 MPH WITH THE SHOWERS. THE TROPICAL WAVE ITSELF IS
MOVING AT ABOUT 28 MPH AND FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE THAT THE
MEAN 0-6KM AVERAGE WIND WILL BE FROM THE EAST FOR TODAY AT ABOUT
25 MPH. IN ADDITION...LATEST GFS MODEL INDICATES THAT THETA-E WILL
INCREASE TODAY INTO TOMORROW...AN INDICATION OF INSTABILITY.
ALTHOUGH THE TROPICAL WAVE DOES NOT LOOK PARTICULARLY IMPRESSIVE ON SATELLITE
AT THIS TIME...THE INTERACTION OF THE TROPICAL WAVE WITH THE LOCAL
EFFECTS AND DAYTIME HEATING IS EXPECTED TO CAUSE SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE LOCAL ISLANDS TODAY...LIKELY WITH STRONG
GUSTY WINDS. FORECAST MODELS WERE NOT IN AGREEMENT IN SEVERAL
AREAS...I DECIDED TO SPLIT THE DIFFERENCE BETWEEN THE MODELS AND
THE INHERITED FORECAST.

THE TROPICAL WAVE IS EXPECTED TO AFFECT THE LOCAL ISLANDS TODAY
AND SUNDAY. MONDAY AND TUESDAY LOOK FAIRLY DRY COMPARED TO THIS
WEEKEND. THETA-E DECREASES QUITE A BIT AND SAHARAN DUST MOVES IN.
HAZY SKIES ARE TO BE EXPECTED ON MONDAY AND TUESDAY WITH
RELATIVELY WARM TEMPERATURES. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO
MOVE NORTH OF THE LOCAL ISLANDS ON MONDAY...KEEPING AN EAST
SOUTHEASTERLY WIND FLOW EARLY NEXT WEEK. WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FAIRLY DRY UNTIL POSSIBLY FRIDAY AFTERNOON
WHEN ANOTHER TROPICAL WAVE APPROACHES THE AREA.

&&

.AVIATION...INCR SHRA THIS MRNG WI TROPICAL WV AND POSBL WIND GUSTS
TO 25-35 KT. GENERALLY VFR TODAY XCP MVFR IN SCT SHRA BCMG NMRS IN
AFT FOR INTERIOR AND WESTERN PR ALG WI OBSCD MTNS AND FEW TSRA. WIND
E 15-30 KT SFC-FL200 BCMG ESE 12-25 KT TONITE/SUNDAY.

&&

.MARINE...SMALL CRAFT SHOULD EXERCISE CAUTION. SEAS WILL BE
GENERALLY 3-6 FEET AND WINDS UP TO 18 KNOTS. HOWEVER...THE TROPICAL
WAVE EXPECTED TODAY WILL BRING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WHICH
WILL CAUSE LOCALLY HIGHER WINDS AND SEAS. WIND GUSTS OF OVER 30 MPH
ARE NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 89 78 90 79 / 50 50 50 10
STT 89 79 89 80 / 50 50 30 10

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Puerto Rico Weather Jul 6, 2014 4:26:45 GMT -6

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Post by Deleted on Jul 6, 2014 4:26:45 GMT -6

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
432 AM AST SUN JUL 6 2014

.SYNOPSIS...TROPICAL WAVE JUST EAST OF HISPANIOLA WILL KEEP LINGERING
MOISTURE OVER THE LOCAL ISLANDS TODAY...SLOWLY DRYING UP FROM THE
EAST STARTING LATE THIS AFTERNOON. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE OVER
CENTRAL ATLANTIC WILL KEEP MODERATE TO FRESH EASTERLY BREEZES OVER
THE LOCAL AREA FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS. DENSE SAHARAN AIR LAYER IS
EXPECTED TO REACH THE LOCAL AREA EARLY ON MONDAY.

&&

.DISCUSSION...TROPICAL WAVE WITH ITS LINGERING MOISTURE AND
CONVERGENCE AREA TO THE EAST OF ITS AXIS...CONTINUES TO PRODUCE
SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA. A FEW
THUNDERSTORMS HAVE BEEN OBSERVED AS WELL. THIS ACTIVITY IS
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS. IN THE
AFTERNOON...THE UPPER TROUGH...ALONG WITH THE LINGERING MOISTURE
IS WILL COMBINE WITH THE DIURNAL HEATING TO CAUSE SHOWERS AND
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE NORTHWESTERN QUADRANT OF PR WHILE
THE REST OF THE AREA REMAINS WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS.

FAIRLY DENSE SAHARAN AIR LAYER WILL MOVE IN BEHIND THE TROPICAL
WAVE EARLY ON MONDAY. AVAILABLE MOISTURE WILL DROP QUITE A BIT
WITH IT AS SEEN BY THE GFS MODEL WHICH INDICATES THAT PRECIPITABLE
WATER WILL DECREASE FROM 1.9 INCHES TODAY TO ABOUT 1.4 OR A LITTLE
LESS BY MONDAY. IN ADDITION...FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE A STRONG
CAP AT ABOUT 850MB. ONLY ISOLATED TO LOCALLY SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE
EXPECTED ON MONDAY AND TUESDAY ACROSS WESTERN PR...AND THESE ARE
NOT EXPECTED TO BE BIG RAIN PRODUCERS EITHER AS THE MOISTURE IS
FAIRLY LIMITED.

THE REST OF THE WEEK ALSO SEEMS TO BE FAIRLY DRY WITH MAYBE
SLIGHTLY HIGHER CHANCE OF RAIN. THE FORECAST SOUNDINGS FROM THE
GFS INDICATE THAT THE CAP DISAPPEARS BY WEDNESDAY AND MOISTURE
INCREASES SLIGHTLY...SAME FOR THURSDAY...AND ON FRIDAY...A TROPICAL
WAVE IS EXPECTED TO APPROACH THE LOCAL AREA BUT KEEPING THE BULK
OF THE MOISTURE TO OUR SOUTH.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR XCP MVFR IN SCT SHRA/TSRA THIS MRNG. SHRA/TSRA GRDLY
DECR E-W THRU MRNG THEN SCT/NMRS MVFR/IFR IN SHRA/TSRA NW QUARTER PR
IN AFT ALG WI OBSCD MTNS. VFR WI ISOLD SHRA ELSEWHERE IN AFT. WIND
SFC-FL200 ESE 14-25 KT BCMG E 12-20 MON.

&&

.MARINE...SMALL CRAFT SHOULD EXERCISE CAUTION ACROSS THE LOCAL
WATERS. MODERATE TO FRESH WINDS ARE EXPECTED FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS
AS A STRONG SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE PREVAILS OVER THE CENTRAL
ATLANTIC. WINDS WILL BE UP TO 20 KNOTS AND SEAS WILL BE MAINLY
BETWEEN 4 AND 6 FEET.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 88 78 91 79 / 50 10 10 10
STT 89 80 89 80 / 50 10 10 10

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Puerto Rico Weather Jul 7, 2014 4:32:38 GMT -6

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Post by Deleted on Jul 7, 2014 4:32:38 GMT -6

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
401 AM AST MON JUL 7 2014

.SYNOPSIS...UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL BEGIN TO WEAKEN TONIGHT AS TUTT
BECOMES DOMINANT WX FEATURE. A WEAK TROPICAL WAVE WILL MOVE ACROSS
THE AREA THU NIGHT. SAHARAN DUST EXPECTED TODAY AND FRIDAY.

&&

.DISCUSSION...IMPRESSIVE 700-500 MB RIDGE NORTH OF THE AREA WILL
MAINTAIN A VERY DRY MID LEVEL ENVIRONMENT MOST OF THE WEEK GREATLY
SUPPRESSING SHOWER DEVELOPMENT. SAHARAN DUST WILL BE PRETTY DENSE
TODAY WITH SKIES AND VSBYS IMPROVING ON TUE. ONLY WED APPEARS TO
HAVE THE BEST PRECIP POTENTIAL WITH THE PASSAGE OF A 700 MB TROUGH
AND IT WOULD BE ISOLD/SCT AT BEST OVR WRN PR. NEXT TROPICAL WAVE
EXPECTED TO STAY MAINLY SOUTH OF THE AREA AND THE LATEST TIMING OF
THE WAVE PASSAGE (THU NIGHT) DOES NOT FAVOR ANY SIG PRECIP. A
DENSER SAHARAN DUST EVENT EXPECTED TO ARRIVE FRI. OVERALL...VERY
DRY THROUGH NEXT MON JUL 14.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS TODAY. HAZE WILL LIKELY DROP VSBYS
BETWEEN 6-8SM TODAY. WINDS WILL BE GUSTY AT 15G25KT WITH AN
ONSHORE COMPONENT XCPT NEAR 10KT AT JMZ. SKIES AND VSBYS IMPROVE TUE.

&&

.MARINE...WINDS 15-20 KT AND SEAS 3-5 FT XCPT 4-6 FT CARIB WATERS.
DUST HAZE WILL REDUCE VSBYS TODAY BETWEEN 6-8SM THEN IMPROVING
TUE. ANOTHER MORE SIGNIFICANT DUST EVENT EXPECTED FRI LIKELY
REDUCING VSBYS TO 6SM OR LESS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...VERY IMPRESSIVE DRY AIR OBSERVED ON 07/00Z
ST. MAARTEN RAOB LAST NIGHT WITH 850 MB DEWPOINT OF 0.6C AND 21C
AND 28C DEWPOINT DEPRESSIONS AT 850 AND 800 MB RESPECTIVELY. WHEN
COMPARING IT TO MODEL GUIDANCE...ONLY THE ECMWF CAPTURED THIS
EXTREMELY DRY AIR FAIRLY WELL WITH THE GFS TOO MOIST AT THESE TWO
LEVELS. THIS DRY AIR WILL SPREAD RAPIDLY WWD ACROSS PR TODAY
ENHANCING THE FIRE THREAT. CONTINUED DRY AIR ADVECTION IS EXPECTED
THROUGH TUESDAY WITH VERY POOR RH RECOVERY TONIGHT. GIVEN THE VERY
DRY START TO THE DAY TUESDAY RED FLAG CONDITIONS APPEAR LIKELY ON
TUE AS WELL. HENCE...A FIRE WEATHER WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR TUE.

THE FIRE WX POTENTIAL TODAY APPEARS VERY SIGNIFICANT AND WILL
LIKELY MATCH THE FEB 19 2014 RED FLAG EVENT. THE MAGNITUDE OF THE
DRY AIR TODAY IS WHAT YOU WOULD EXPECT IN THE MIDDLE OF WINTER AND
WHEN YOU COMBINE THAT WITH TEMPS IN THE 90S IT WILL RESULT IN VERY
LOW RH`S. WINDS AS HAVE BEEN THE RULE MOST OF THIS SUMMER WILL
CONTINUE TO BLOW PRETTY STRONG WITH 20-FOOT WINDS 20G30MPH. ANOTHER
RED FLAG EVENT APPEARS LIKELY ON THU AHEAD OF NEXT WAVE IF THE
LATEST TIMING HOLDS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 91 79 91 79 / 0 0 20 20
STT 89 80 89 80 / 10 20 30 30

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Puerto Rico Weather Jul 8, 2014 4:21:38 GMT -6

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Post by Deleted on Jul 8, 2014 4:21:38 GMT -6

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
455 AM AST TUE JUL 8 2014

.UPDATE...HEADLINES CHANGED AT THE BOTTOM FOR UPGRADE TO RED FLAG
WARNING.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...TUTT WILL REMAIN THE DOMINANT WX FEATURE THROUGH EARLY
NEXT WEEK. A PAIR OF WEAK TROPICAL WAVES WILL MOVE ACROSS THE
CARIB SEA NEXT SVRL DAYS BUT STAY MAINLY SOUTH OF THE AREA.

&&

.DISCUSSION...STRONG 700-500 MB RIDGE NORTH OF THE AREA WILL
MAINTAIN AN OVERALL VERY DRY MID-LEVEL ENVIRONMENT THROUGH EARLY
NEXT WEEK. THE NORTHERN FRINGES OF A TROPICAL WAVE WILL MOVE
ACROSS THE AREA LATE THU NIGHT AND EARLY FRI. ANOTHER DENSE LAYER
OF SAHARAN DUST TRAILS THIS WAVE AND WILL ARRIVE INTO OUR AREA FRI
AFTERNOON AND PERSIST THROUGH SAT.

FOR TODAY...DUST HAZE WILL EXIT THE REGION EARLY WITH SKIES AND
VSBY IMPROVING RAPIDLY THROUGH THE DAY. SUBSIDENCE INVERSION WILL
WEAKEN SOMEWHAT AND ALLOW ISOLD/SCT SHOWERS AND T-STORMS TO FORM OVR
WRN PR THIS AFTERNOON. MOISTURE HOWEVER REMAINS IN SHORT SUPPLY SO
NOTHING OUT OF THE ORDINARY.

MOISTURE INCREASES FURTHER ON WED WITH GREATER COVERAGE OF
SHOWERS AND T-STORMS OVR WRN/NW PR. SHARP AND VERY SIGNIFICANT
DRYING OCCURS ON THU AHEAD OF NEXT WAVE. TROPICAL WAVE MOVES
ACROSS THE AREA LATE THU NIGHT THRU FRI MORNING WITH SHOWERS AND
T-STORMS MAINLY OVER WATER...NE PR...USVI AND FAR NW PR. LATEST TIMING
SHOWS DRYING AND SAHARAN DUST SPREADING QUICKLY ACROSS PR AFTER
18Z FRI. FURTHER DRYING EXPECTED SUN THROUGH TUE. IN SUMMARY...THE
NEXT SEVEN DAYS CONTINUE TO LOOK PARTICULARLY VERY DRY WITH MUCH
BELOW NORMAL RAINFALL.

&&

.AVIATION...HAZE WILL EXIT THE REGION EARLY WITH SKIES AND VSBY
IMPROVING RAPIDLY. A T-STORM POSSIBLE AT JMZ LATER THIS AFTERNOON
SO A VCTS WAS INCLUDED IN THE 06Z TAF. OTHERWISE...VFR CONDITIONS
EXPECTED NEXT 24 HRS AT ALL OTHER TAF SITES.

&&

.MARINE...WINDS 15-20 KT THROUGH EARLY SAT WITH WINDS EXPECTED TO
DIMINISH CONSIDERABLY THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. SEAS 3-5 FT XCPT
4-6 FT CARIB WATERS THROUGH FRI. ANOTHER DUST EVENT FRI AND SAT
WILL REDUCE VSBYS BETWEEN 6-8SM.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...CURRENT OBS AND FCST MAX TEMPS SUGGEST THAT RED
FLAG CONDITIONS WILL BE MET LATER TODAY. LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATES
WILL ALSO STEEPEN LATER TODAY FURTHER ENHANCING THE FIRE THREAT.
THUS...RED FLAG WARNING HAS BEEN ISSUED UNTIL 5PM. ANOTHER RED
FLAG EVENT APPEARS LIKELY ON THU. OVERALL...THE NEXT SEVEN DAYS
CONTINUE TO LOOK PARTICULARLY VERY DRY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 91 81 91 81 / 0 20 20 30
STT 89 81 89 81 / 20 30 30 30

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Puerto Rico Weather Jul 9, 2014 4:08:18 GMT -6

Quote

Post by Deleted on Jul 9, 2014 4:08:18 GMT -6

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
428 AM AST WED JUL 9 2014

.SYNOPSIS...TUTT WILL REMAIN THE DOMINANT WX FEATURE THROUGH EARLY
NEXT WEEK WITH MID-UPPER LEVEL RIDGE EXPECTED TO BUILD MID NEXT WEEK.
A PAIR OF EASTERLY WAVES WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH FRI.
SAL WILL ESTABLISH FRI AND PERSIST THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

&&

.DISCUSSION...700-500 MB TROUGH EAST OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS WILL
MOVE WWD ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA NEXT 24 HRS AND PROMOTE MOISTURE
TRANSPORT INTO THE REGION WITH SHOWERS EXPECTED ESPECIALLY THIS
MORNING WHEN BEST MID LEVEL MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY IS FCST. SHARP
AND VERY SIGNIFICANT DRYING EXPECTED TONIGHT THROUGH THU MORNING
BEHIND TROUGH PASSAGE WITH RED FLAG CONDITIONS EXPECTED ON
THURSDAY. A TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 55W WILL STAY WELL SOUTH OF THE
LOCAL AREA THU WHILE A SECOND WAVE FARTHER EAST CURRENTLY ALONG
45W WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA FRI MORNING WITH SAL QUICKLY
ESTABLISHING ACROSS THE AREA FRI AFTERNOON AND PERSISTING THROUGH
THE WEEKEND. SIGNIFICANT DRYING EXPECTED THROUGH THE WEEKEND INTO
EARLY NEXT WEEK. ANOTHER WAVE IS EXPECTED TO MOVE ACROSS THE ERN
CARIB SEA TUE BUT STAY MAINLY SOUTH OF THE FCST AREA. MID-UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE THEN EXPECTED TO BECOME INCREASINGLY DOMINANT MID TO
LATE NEXT WEEK.

IN SUMMARY...TODAY APPEARS TO HAVE THE BEST/HIGHEST PROBS AND
GREATEST COVERAGE OF SHOWERS DURING THE NEXT SEVEN DAYS WITH
EXCEPTIONALLY DRY CONDITIONS EXPECTED THE REST OF THE PERIOD UNDER
A STRONG UPPER LEVEL CONVERGENT PATTERN AND SAL.

&&

.AVIATION...SCT SHOWERS THIS MORNING WITH T-STORMS POSSIBLE AT JMZ
AND JBQ LATER TODAY.

&&

.MARINE...WINDS EXPECTED TO INCREASE TO NEAR 20KT THROUGH FRI MORNING THEN
DIMINISH THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT WEEK. SEAS 4-6 FT
THROUGH FRI MORNING THEN DIMINISHING 3-5 FT.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...SHARP AND VERY SIGNIFICANT DRYING EXPECTED TONIGHT
THROUGH THU MORNING BEHIND TROUGH PASSAGE AND AHEAD OF NEXT WAVE.
LATEST BLENDED TPW PRODUCT SHOWS PWATS MAY DROP AS LOW AS AN INCH
THU MORNING WHICH WOULD BE EXTREME FOR THIS TIME OF THE YEAR.
MODEL LAYER RH`S (1000-500 MB AND 1000-700 MB) ALSO SHOW VERY LOW
VALUES NEAR -2SD FOR THIS TIME OF THE YEAR WITH 800 MB DEWPOINT
DEPRESSIONS IN EXCESS OF 30C. THIS IS EXCEPTIONALLY DRY AIR FOR
THIS TIME OF THE YEAR AND MORE TYPICALLY OF WINTER TIME. WINDS
ALSO EXPECTED TO STRENGTHEN THROUGH FRI MORNING. THUS...FIRE
WEATHER WATCH WILL BE ISSUED SHORTLY.

MOISTURE RECOVERS LATE THU THRU EARLY FRI WITH LOW-MID LEVEL DRYING
EXPECTED DURING THE WEEKEND THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. HOWEVER...MODELS
SHOW WINDS DIMINISHING CONSIDERABLY WITH SUBSTANTIAL MID-HIGH LEVEL
CLOUD DECK. REGARDLESS OF WHETHER RED FLAG OR NOT...THE NEXT
SEVEN DAYS LOOK EXCEPTIONALLY DRY AFTER TODAY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 89 80 91 80 / 40 10 0 50
STT 89 80 89 80 / 40 10 0 50

Deleted

Posts: 0

Puerto Rico Weather Jul 10, 2014 4:18:43 GMT -6

Quote

Post by Deleted on Jul 10, 2014 4:18:43 GMT -6

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
419 AM AST THU JUL 10 2014

.SYNOPSIS...TUTT WILL REMAIN DOMINANT WX FEATURE THROUGH MID NEXT WEEK
WITH MID-UPPER LEVEL RIDGE EXPECTED TO BUILD OVR THE REGION LATE
NEXT WEEK. A PAIR OF TROPICAL WAVES WILL MOVE ACROSS THE ERN CARIB
SEA DURING THE NEXT 36 HRS WITHOUT MUCH IMPACTS.

&&

.DISCUSSION...SIGNIFICANT DRYING EXPECTED TO TAKE PLACE THIS
MORNING AHEAD OF A TROPICAL WAVE CURRENTLY OVER THE E CARIBBEAN.
THIS DRYING IS SUPPORTED BY LATEST BLENDED AND LPW PRODUCTS AND
0720Z GOES SOUNDER SCAN OVR THE E CARIBBEAN. A SECOND TROPICAL
WAVE ALONG 55W WILL MOVE ACROSS THE ERN CARIB TONIGHT AND EARLY
FRI. TIMING OF WAVE PASSAGE DOES NOT FAVOR MUCH CONVECTION OVR
LAND AREAS XCPT OVR ERN PR TONIGHT. WAVE AXIS REACHES 70W BY
18Z FRI WITH RAPID DRYING AND SAHARAN DUST ESTABLISHING QUICKLY
FRI AFTERNOON. SAHARAN DUST PERSISTS THROUGH THE WEEKEND WHILE
TUTT TO THE NORTH MAINTAINS AN OVERALL UPPER LEVEL CONVERGENT
PATTERN WITH VERY DRY MID-LEVEL ENVIRONMENT GREATLY SUPPRESSING
CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED NEXT 24 HRS. DUST HAZE WILL
OVERSPREAD THE REGION AFTER 18Z FRI AND PERSIST THROUGH THE
WEEKEND WITH VSBY BETWEEN 6-8SM.

&&

.MARINE...WINDS STRENGTHEN TO NEAR 20KT THROUGH FRI MORNING THEN
DIMINISH CONSIDERABLY SAT THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. SEAS 4-6 FT
THRU FRI THEN 3-5 FT SAT ON.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...CURRENT OBS AND 24-HR TRENDS SUGGEST THAT RED FLAG
CONDITIONS WILL BE MET OVER PR AND VIEQUES LATER THIS MORNING
WHILE AT ST. CROIX IT WILL BE MORE MARGINAL/IFFY GIVEN THE CORE OF
DRIEST AIR WILL MOVE AROUND 12Z BEFORE TEMPS REACH THE 90S. IF IT
VERIFIES THERE IT WOULD BE BEFORE 18Z AS PWATS ARE EXPECTED TO
RECOVER RATHER QUICKLY. WILL ISSUE RFW`S FOR PR ZONES BY 6AM AND
DECIDE A BIT LATER ON ST. CROIX.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 89 79 88 79 / 0 50 50 10
STT 90 79 89 79 / 0 50 50 10

Deleted

Posts: 0

Puerto Rico Weather Jul 11, 2014 4:03:19 GMT -6

Quote

Post by Deleted on Jul 11, 2014 4:03:19 GMT -6

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
420 AM AST FRI JUL 11 2014

.SYNOPSIS...TROPICAL WAVE WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE WEST ACROSS THE
LOCAL AREA THIS MORNING. A DRIER AIR MASS BEHIND THE WAVE WILL
ENCOMPASS THE LOCAL AREA TONIGHT. STRONG HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE
CENTRAL ATLANTIC WILL MAINTAIN A TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT OVER THE
REGION THROUGH SATURDAY. UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL MEANDER ACROSS
THE NORTHEAST CARIBBEAN THROUGH MID NEXT WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...LEADING EDGE OF TROPICAL WAVE BROUGHT LINES OF
SHOWERS WITH THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF PUERTO RICO
EARLY THIS MORNING. RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS WERE BETWEEN THREE
QUARTER TO ONE INCH IN SOME AREAS IN THE SOUTHEAST SECTION OF
PUERTO RICO. TROPICAL WAVE WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE WEST THIS
MORNING AND DURING THE FIRST PART OF THIS AFTERNOON. ALTHOUGH
LATEST SATELITE IMAGES WERE SHOWING A DRIER AIR MASS BEHIND THE
WAVE...RESIDUAL MOISTURE FROM THE WAVE...WILL COMBINE WITH DAYTIME
HEATING AND LOCAL EFFECTS TO PRODUCE SCATTERED SHOWERS WITH
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS OVER WESTERN INTERIOR AND NORTHWEST SECTIONS
OF PUERTO RICO. STRONG GUSTY WINDS WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THE
STRONGEST THUNDERSTORMS.

FOR THE WEEKEND...A DRIER AIR MASS IS EXPECTED TO ENCOMPASS THE
LOCAL REGION...WHICH WILL LIMIT SOMEWHAT THE CHANCES FOR SHOWERS
ACROSS THE LOCAL ISLANDS. SOME AFTERNOON SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO
DEVELOP EACH AFTERNOON OVER THE CORDILLERA CENTRAL OF PUERTO RICO.

AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH LOCATED NORTHEAST OF THE LOCAL AREA...WILL
CONTINUE TO MEANDER THROUGH MID NEXT WEEK...BUT AT THIS TIME...IS
NOT EXPECTED TO BE IN A FAVORABLE POSITION TO AID IN THE
DEVELOPMENT OF SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR CONDS EXPECTED THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD.
TROPICAL WAVE WILL CONTINUE TO BRING PASSING SHRA ACROSS THE FLYING
AREA. THIS AFTERNOON SHRA/TSRA POSSIBLE ACROSS WESTERN PR. WINDS
WILL BE MAINLY FROM THE EAST TO ESE AT AROUND 10 KTS AND GUSTY
AFTER 11/13Z CONTINUING FROM THE EAST WITH SEA BREEZE VARIATIONS.

&&

.MARINE...SEAS UP TO 6 FEET AND WINDS UP TO 20KT. THEREFORE...
SMALL BOAT OPERATORS SHOULD EXERCISE CAUTION ACROSS ALL LOCAL
WATERS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 87 78 89 78 / 50 10 10 10
STT 90 80 90 79 / 50 10 10 10

Deleted

Posts: 0

Puerto Rico Weather Jul 12, 2014 4:08:39 GMT -6

Quote

Post by Deleted on Jul 12, 2014 4:08:39 GMT -6

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
505 AM AST SAT JUL 12 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
TUTT LOW CENTERED JUST SOUTH OF CUBA AND ANOTHER LOCATED OVER THE
CENTRAL ATLANTIC AND NORTH OF THE REGION...IS SEPARATED BY HIGH
PRESSURE RIDGE WHICH EXTENDS NORTHWARDS ACROSS THE NORTHEASTERN
CARIBBEAN FROM THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN BASIN. THE UPPER LOWS ARE TO
CONTINUE RETROGRESSING WEST SOUTHWEST OF THE REGION THROUGH THE
REST OF THE WEEKEND...AS HIGH PRESSURE GRADUALLY BUILDS ACROSS THE
REGION THROUGH MONDAY OF NEXT WEEK. IN THE LOW LEVELS...STRONG HIGH
PRESSURE CENTERED ACROSS THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC WILL SINK FURTHER SOUTH
ACROSS THE REGION TODAY TO INDUCE A MODERATE SOUTHEASTERLY TRADE
WINDS FLOW THROUGH EARLY SUNDAY. WINDS WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH
SUNDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH MONDAY AS THE LOCAL PRESSURE GRADIENT
LOOSENS IN RESPONSE TO AN INDUCED LOW LEVEL TROUGH...WHICH IS
FORECAST TO MOVE ACROSS THE NORTHEASTERN CARIBBEAN BY EARLY
MONDAY. THEREAFTER...MODERATE TO STRONG SOUTHEASTERLY TRADE WINDS
WILL RETURN TO THE REGION BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. LATEST
SATELLITE IMAGERY AND NAAPS AEROSOL PRODUCTS BOTH SUGGEST MUCH
DRIER CONDITIONS AS THE SAHARAN AIR LAYER/SAL IS TO CONTINUE TO
SPREAD WESTWARDS ACROSS THE REGION DURING THE REST OF THE WEEKEND
AND PERSIST THRU AT LEAST MONDAY.

&&

.DISCUSSION...A DRIER AIR MASS WITH MILD AMOUNTS OF SUSPENDED
SAHARAN DUST WILL CONTINUE TO FILTER IN ACROSS THE REGION TODAY.
IN THE MEANTIME...THE TUTT JUST NORTH AND WEST OF THE REGION ALONG
WITH THE BUILDING RIDGE OVERHEAD SHOULD MAINTAIN THE REGION IN AN
OVERALL UPPER LEVEL CONVERGENT PATTERN. ALTHOUGH HIGH LEVEL CIRRUS
CLOUDS WILL INVADE THE FORECAST AREA TODAY DUE TO THE PREVAILING
UPPER LEVEL WESTERLIES...STILL EXPECT LOCAL SEA BREEZE CONVERGENCE
AND DAYTIME HEATING TO AID IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED AFTERNOON CONVECTION MAINLY ACROSS THE WEST INTERIOR
SECTIONS OF PUERTO RICO DURING THE AFTERNOON. THE REST OF THE
ISLANDS AS WELL AS CULEBRA...VIEQUES AND THE VIRGIN ISLANDS SHOULD
EXPERIENCE MOSTLY SUNNY AND FAIR WEATHER SKIES.

DURING THE REST OF THE WEEKEND... CONTINUED DRYING TREND IS EXPECTED
WITH MOSTLY FAIR WEATHER SKIES WITH LIMITED AFTERNOON SHOWER ACTIVITY
MAINLY ACROSS WESTERN PUERTO RICO. BY EARLY MONDAY THE WEAKLY INDUCED
LOW LEVEL TROUGH IS TO QUICKLY MOVE ACROSS THE REGION...BUT SO FAR
NO SIGNIFICANT MOISTURE ADVECTION IS EXPECTED WITH THIS FEATURE EXCEPT
FOR A BRIEF SHIFT IN THE PREVAILING EASTERLY TRADE WIND FLOW. FOR
THE REMAINDER OF NEXT WEEK...LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE ALL SUGGEST OVERALL
DRY CONDITIONS THROUGH MOST OF THE WEEK WITH NO SIGNIFICANT WEATHER
FEATURE IN SITE FOR THE MOMENT.

&&

.AVIATION...PREVAILING VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE FORECAST
PERIOD. POSSIBLE SHRA/TSRA ACROSS WESTERN PR AFTER 12/18Z MAY AFFECT
TJMZ. WINDS WILL BE AT LESS THAN 10 KNOTS EARLY THIS MORNING MAINLY
FROM THE EAST. AFTER 12/14Z...WINDS WILL INCREASE TO 10-15 KTS FROM
THE EAST TO E-SE WITH SEA BREEZE VARIATIONS.

&&

.MARINE...MODERATE EAST TO SOUTHEAST TRADE WINDS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS
THE REGION TODAY...BUT WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH THROUGH EARLY NEXT
NEXT WEEK THEN STRENGTHEN ONCE AGAIN BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.
LIKEWISE SEAS WILL CONTINUE TO DIMINISHING TO 4 FEET OR LESS BY
LATER THIS EVENING. PLEASE REFER TO THE LATEST COASTAL WATERS
FORECAST ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WFO SAN JUAN PR.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 89 78 86 78 / 10 10 10 20
STT 90 78 88 79 / 10 20 20 20

Deleted

Posts: 0

Puerto Rico Weather Jul 13, 2014 4:05:55 GMT -6

Quote

Post by Deleted on Jul 13, 2014 4:05:55 GMT -6

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
556 AM AST SUN JUL 13 2014

.SYNOPSIS...TUTT LOWS NORTH AND WEST OF THE REGION WILL CONTINUE
TO PULL FURTHER NORTH AND WEAKEN OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS...AS THE
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS TO LINGER ACROSS THE NORTHEASTERN CARIBBEAN
THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. AXIS OF A TUTT INDUCED LOW LEVEL
INVERTED TROUGH NOW ACROSS THE NORTHERN LEEWARDS...AND WILL MOVE
WESTWARD ACROSS THE NORTHEASTERN CARIBBEAN TODAY THROUGH EARLY
MONDAY. A WEAK TROPICAL WAVE JUST EAST OF THE WINDWARD ISLANDS
THIS MORNING WILL CONTINUE WESTWARD...THEN ENTER AND MOVE ACROSS
THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN LATE MONDAY AND TUESDAY. THIS FEATURE AND
ASSOCIATED LIMITED MOISTURE IS EXPECTED TO MOVE MAINLY SOUTH OF
THE REGION. THE WAVE IS EMBEDDED WITHIN THE WIDESPREAD DRY SAHARAN
AIR LAYER WHICH EXTENDS INTO THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN FROM ACROSS THE
TROPICAL ATLANTIC.

&&

.DISCUSSION...MOSTLY SUNNY AND HAZY CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST ACROSS
THE REGION TODAY...AS THE PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED TUTT LOWS PULLS FURTHER
AWAY FROM THE REGION...AND THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BUILDS ALOFT TO
MAINTAIN AND OVERALL CONVERGENT PATTERN. MOSTLY FAIR WEATHER CONDITIONS
WILL CONTINUE ACROSS MOST OF THE ISLANDS...HOWEVER AFTERNOON CONVECTION
WITH SHOWER AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE
ACROSS PARTS OF THE WESTERN AND INTERIOR SECTIONS OF PUERTO RICO MAINLY
DUE TO LOCAL EFFECTS AND DAYTIME HEATING.

THE TUTT INDUCED INVERTED TROUGH WILL QUICKLY MOVE ACROSS THE REGION
IN THE PREVAILING EASTERLIES BUT SHOULD BRING ONLY LIMITED AMOUNTS
OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE TO THE REGION. LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE STILL
SUGGESTS THAT THE BEST MOISTURE CONVERGENCE AND INSTABILITY SHOULD
REMAIN NORTH OF THE LOCAL AREA. STILL EXPECT SUFFICIENT MOISTURE
ADVECTION TO ALLOW FOR ISOLATED TO SCATTERED LOCAL AND DIURNALLY
INDUCED AFTERNOON CONVECTION TODAY AND MONDAY. THEREAFTER...MOSTLY
FAIR AND OVERALL DRY CONDITION WILL PREVAIL WITH STILL NO SIGNIFICANT
WEATHER FEATURE OR MAJOR RAINMAKER IN SIGHT. THIS WEATHER PATTERN
IS TO PERSIST THROUGH MOST OF NEXT WEEK WITH ONLY OCCASIONAL LIGHT
PASSING EARLY MORNING TRADE WIND SHOWERS FOLLOWED BY LIMITED AFTERNOON
CONVECTION ACROSS THE ISLANDS EACH DAY.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED ACROSS THE LOCAL FLYING AREA
DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS...EXCEPT ACROSS WEST AND WEST INTERIOR PR
WHERE SCT SHRA/ISOLD TSRA ARE EXPECTED TO AFFECT TJMZ AFTER 17/17Z.
WIND FROM SFC-FL050 IS FROM THE EAST AT 10 KNOTS BECOMING N-NW AT
5-10 KNOTS TO FL150.

&&

.MARINE...WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO DIMINISH ACROSS THE LOCAL WATERS TODAY
THOUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. SEAS WILL BE MAINLY 5 FEET OR LESS AND WINDS
WILL BE AT 17 KNOTS OR LESS. THE EASTERLY TRADE WILL INCREASE ONCE
AGAIN DURING THE LATTER PART OF THE WORK WEEK.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
THE EASTERLY TRADE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO DIMINISH ACROSS
THE ISLANDS TODAY THROUGH MONDAY. HOWEVER OVERALL DRY CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED IN MOST AREAS WITH RELATIVE HUMIDITY TO DIP TO THE LOW 50S
TODAY MAINLY ACROSS PARTS OF THE SOUTH COASTAL PLAINS PARTICULARLY
IN AND AROUND CAMP SANTIAGO/SALINAS AND SANTA ISABEL IN PUERTO
RICO... VIEQUES AND THE ISLAND OF SAINT CROIX. EXCEPT FOR LOCAL
SEA BREEZE VARIATIONS...THE 20 FOOT WINDS ARE FORECAST TO BE LESS
THAN 15 MPH WITH ONLY OCCASIONALLY HIGHER GUSTS. FIRE AND EMERGENCY
OFFICIALS SHOULD HOWEVER BE AWARE THAT WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE
TO BECOME MORE AND MORE CONDUCIVE FOR THE QUICK IGNITION AND SPREAD
OF WILDFIRES...AS THE EASTERLY TRADE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE
ONCE AGAIN BY THE MIDDLE OF THE UPCOMING WEEK...WITH VERY LITTLE
IF ANY CHANCES OF WETTING RAINS EXPECTED ACROSS THE LOCAL ISLANDS.
ALL LOCAL RESIDENTS AND VISITORS ARE URGED TO CONTINUE TO DISPOSE
OF ALL FLAMMABLE MATERIALS IN THEIR PROPER RECEPTACLES AND REPORT
ANY SMOKE OR FIRE SIGHTINGS TO THE LOCAL FIRE DEPARTMENT.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 87 74 86 76 / 0 20 20 20
STT 88 78 89 79 / 10 20 20 20

Deleted

Posts: 0

Puerto Rico Weather Jul 14, 2014 3:53:59 GMT -6

Quote

Post by Deleted on Jul 14, 2014 3:53:59 GMT -6

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
524 AM AST MON JUL 14 2014

.SYNOPSIS...AN UPPER LEVEL LOW JUST NORTHEAST OF THE REGION...WILL
REMAINS AS THE MAIN WEATHER FEATURE THROUGH MIDWEEK. A WEAK TROPICAL
WAVE WILL PASS MOSTLY SOUTH OF THE LOCAL ISLANDS ON WEDNESDAY.
MID-UPPER LEVEL RIDGE EXPECTED TO BUILD FROM THE EAST THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY.

&&

.DISCUSSION...CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES PREVAILED ACROSS THE LOCAL
ISLANDS OVERNIGHT AND EARLY THIS MORNING WITH ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
PASSING SHOWERS AFFECTING THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS AND EASTERN
SECTIONS OF PUERTO RICO FROM TIME TO TIME. HOWEVER...MOST OF THE
AREA REMAINS UNDER A GENERALLY DRY AND HAZY WEATHER PATTERN. LATEST
SATELLITE IMAGES THIS MORNING DEPICTED AN INCREASE IN MOISTURE WITH
TRAILING SHOWERS FROM THE EAST. THIS MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE
WESTWARD TODAY...INDUCING PASSING SHOWERS ACROSS EASTERN SECTIONS OF
PUERTO RICO DURING THE REST OF THE MORNING...FOLLOWED BY AFTERNOON
CONVECTION ACROSS WESTERN PUERTO RICO THIS AFTERNOON.

TUTT LOWS NORTHWEST AND NORTHEAST OF THE REGION WILL WEAKEN DURING
THE NEXT FEW DAYS...BUT WILL REMAIN AS THE MAIN WEATHER FEATURE
ACROSS THE LOCAL ISLANDS UNTIL MID WEEK. A WEAK TROPICAL WAVE OVER
THE WINDWARD ISLANDS IS EXPECTED TO MOVE ACROSS THE EASTERN
CARIBBEAN TODAY AND TUESDAY. THIS FEATURE AND ASSOCIATED LIMITED
MOISTURE IS EXPECTED TO PASS MAINLY SOUTH OF THE LOCAL ISLANDS LATE
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. MID-UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL BUILD OVER THE
AREA BY MID WEEK. IN GENERAL...EXPECT THE CONTINUATION OF EARLY
MORNING TRADE WIND SHOWERS ACROSS EASTERN SECTIONS OF PUERTO RICO
FOLLOWED BY SOME AFTERNOON CONVECTION ACROSS WESTERN AND INTERIOR
PUERTO RICO EACH AFTERNOON.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR CONDS AT ALL TAF SITES XCPT ISOLD PASSING -SHRA/SHRA
MAINLY OFFSHORE OF LOCAL ISLANDS OVERNITE/EARLY MORNING W/MOSTLY SCT
LLVL CLD LYRS BTW FL020-FL080...FEW TCU MAINLY N OF PR AND NRN USVI
DURG EARLY AM...AND SCT-BKN HI LVL CLD BTW FL200-FL250 EN ROUTE BTW
LOCAL ISLANDS. SCT SHRA/ISOLD TSRA XPTD OVR W-NW PR DURG AFTN BTW
14/18/14/22Z. WIND BLO FL150 E 5-15 KT...BCMG FM W AND INCR W/HT ABV
FL200.

&&

.MARINE...WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO DIMINISH TODAY AND NOW WINDS OF
16 KNOTS OR LESS ARE EXPECTED WITH SEAS UP TO 4 FEET.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 87 77 87 78 / 20 10 20 20
STT 89 78 89 79 / 20 20 20 20

Deleted

Posts: 0

Puerto Rico Weather Jul 15, 2014 4:04:32 GMT -6

Quote

Post by Deleted on Jul 15, 2014 4:04:32 GMT -6

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
514 AM AST TUE JUL 15 2014

.SYNOPSIS...TUTT LOW NORTH OF THE AREA IS FORECAST TO LIFT FURTHER
NORTHWARD WHILE FILLING DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS. ANOTHER TUTT LOW
ACROSS THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC WILL MOVE WESTWARD TO THE NORTH OF
THE REGION BY THE UPCOMING WEEKEND. TROPICAL WAVE OVER THE EASTERN
CARIBBEAN IS EXPECTED TO MOVE WESTWARD PASSING MOSTLY SOUTH OF THE
REGION TODAY AND TONIGHT

&&

.DISCUSSION...CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES PREVAILED ACROSS THE LOCAL
ISLANDS OVERNIGHT AND EARLY THIS MORNING. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
PASSING SHOWERS AFFECTED THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS AND EASTERN
SECTIONS OF PUERTO RICO FROM TIME TO TIME. HOWEVER...NOT SIGNIFICANT
OR WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION WAS DETECTED ELSEWHERE ACROSS THE
REGION.

TUTT LOW TO THE NORTH OF THE AREA IS FORECAST TO LIFT FURTHER
NORTHWARD WHILE FILLING TODAY AND TOMORROW. A SHORTWAVE RIDGE
WILL BUILD ACROSS THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN BY MID WEEK...BECOMING AS
THE DOMINANT WX FEATURE WEDNESDAY THRU AT LEAST SATURDAY.

ANOTHER TUTT LOW ACROSS THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC WILL MOVE WESTWARD
TO THE NORTH OF THE REGION BY THE END OF THE WEEK. LATEST
SATELLITE IMAGES THIS MORNING DEPICTED AN INCREASE IN LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE ACROSS THE REGION. THIS MOISTURE IS ASSOCIATED WITH A
TROPICAL WAVE JUST ACROSS THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN. THIS WAVE WILL
CONTINUE TO MOVE WESTWARD TODAY...INDUCING AN INCREASE IN
CLOUDINESS...SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE U.S.
VIRGIN ISLANDS AND EASTERN SECTIONS OF PUERTO RICO DURING THE REST
OF THE MORNING HOURS...FOLLOWED BY AFTERNOON CONVECTION ACROSS
WESTERN AND INTERIOR SECTIONS PUERTO RICO THIS AFTERNOON. HOWEVER
THE BULK OF THE MOISTURE AND CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY WITH THIS SYSTEM
SHOULD PASS WELL SOUTH OF PUERTO RICO.

MOISTURE FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS IS EXPECTED TO FLUCTUATE A BIT AS
PATCHES OF MOISTURE MOVE ACROSS THE AREA BUT EVEN IN ITS DRIER
MOMENTS WE SHOULD OBSERVE SHOWER ACTIVITY. IN THE LONG TERM...IT
LOOKS LIKE A TROPICAL WAVE MAY AFFECT THE LOCAL AREA FOR THIS
WEEKEND...BRINGING AN INCREASE IN MOISTURE THAT WOULD PUT
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES CLOSE TO 2 INCHES ON SATURDAY IF THE GFS
MODEL WERE TO VERIFY. THIS WAVE IN COMBINATION WITH AN UPPER
TROUGH EXPECTED TO BE TO THE WEST NORTHWEST OF THE LOCAL ISLANDS
CAN BRING SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND SOME THUNDERSTORMS TO
THE LOCAL AREA.

&&

.AVIATION...MOSTLY VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD BE EXPECTED OVER MOST
TERMINALS THROUGH THIS EVENING...EXCEPT FOR ISOLD SHRS/TSTMS INVOF
TJSJ...TJBQ AND TJMZ...HOWEVER NO SIGNIFICANT IMPACT ON TERMINALS
OPERATIONS EXPECTED. LOW LVL WINDS SHOULD BE MAINLY DOMINATED BY
AFT/EVENING SEA BREEZES BUT BECOMING LIGHT AND VARIABLE OVERNIGHT.
MOSTLY VFR CONDITIONS WITH ISOLD SHWRS SHOULD BE EXPECTED OVER ALL
TERMINALS OVERNIGHT AND THROUGH 18Z.

&&

.MARINE...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE NORTH OF THE REGION WILL
CONTINUE TO MAINTAIN A MODERATE TO LOCALLY FRESH EAST SOUTHEAST
TRADE WIND FLOW THROUGH AT LEAST MID WEEK. SEAS BELOW 5 FEET OVER
THE NEXT FEW DAYS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 89 77 90 78 / 20 20 20 20
STT 88 78 90 79 / 30 30 30 30

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SKYSUMMIT: Great to have you back! Sept 11, 2023 12:20:30 GMT -6

virginialee: Hi Skysummit: I was part of this back at the beginning. So happy to be back. Sept 8, 2023 5:08:12 GMT -6

SKYSUMMIT: Thanks to everyone who has recently donated! If I missed anyone and you still need a Supporter Tag, let me know. Sept 7, 2023 13:20:10 GMT -6

akeller11: Just donated Sept 6, 2023 11:11:36 GMT -6

SKYSUMMIT: Thanks guys and gals! You're very much appreciated! Aug 30, 2023 11:48:38 GMT -6

Puerto Rico Weather

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