Puerto Rico Weather

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Puerto Rico Weather Aug 4, 2014 4:13:29 GMT -6

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Post by Deleted on Aug 4, 2014 4:13:29 GMT -6

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
509 AM AST MON AUG 4 2014

.SYNOPSIS...A WEAK TROPICAL WAVE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE CARIBBEAN
WATERS TODAY INCREASING THE MOISTURE ACROSS THE REGION. A LARGE AREA
OF FRAGMENTED MOISTURE WILL MOVE OVER THE REGION FOR THE NEXT FEW
DAYS INCREASING THE CHANCES OF SHOWERS.

&&

.DISCUSSION...DOPPLER WEATHER RADAR DETECTED AN INCREASE IN SHOWER
ACTIVITY ACROSS THE REGION OVERNIGHT AND EARLY THIS MORNING.
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED PASSING SHOWERS AFFECTED THE EASTERN AND
NORTHEASTERN SECTIONS OF PUERTO RICO...VIEQUES...CULEBRA AND THE
U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS OVERNIGHT. HOWEVER...DUE TO THE RAPID MOVEMENT
OF THE SHOWERS THE TOTAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS WERE MINIMAL. THIS
MOISTURE IS ASSOCIATED WITH A WEAK TROPICAL WAVE MOVING ACROSS THE
REGION TODAY. LATEST SATELLITE IMAGES THIS MORNING DEPICTED A LARGE
AREA OF FRAGMENTED CLOUDINESS BEHIND THE AFOREMENTIONED TROPICAL
WAVE. THIS CLOUDINESS WILL COMBINE WITH DAYTIME HEATING AND LOCAL
EFFECTS TO INDUCE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS WESTERN AND
INTERIOR SECTIONS OF PUERTO RICO THIS AFTERNOON AND THEREAFTER. THE
NEXT TROPICAL WAVE IS EXPECTED TO REACH OUR LOCAL AREA ON SATURDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...PREVAILING VFR CONDITIONS...WITH SOME VCSH..ARE EXPECTED
ACROSS THE LOCAL TERMINALS THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. EAST TO E-NE
WINDS WILL PREVAIL OVERNIGHT AT AROUND 5-15 KTS...INCREASING TO
10-20 KTS WITH GUSTS AFTER 04/14Z FROM THE EAST TO E-NE.

&&

.MARINE...WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO RELAX ACROSS THE LOCAL WATERS AND
THEREFORE SEAS WILL SLOWLY CALM DOWN FOR THE NEXT DAY OR SO.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 89 81 87 78 / 20 40 40 30
STT 90 81 89 80 / 30 40 40 40

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Puerto Rico Weather Aug 5, 2014 4:37:17 GMT -6

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Post by Deleted on Aug 5, 2014 4:37:17 GMT -6

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...DELAYED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
553 AM AST TUE AUG 5 2014

.SYNOPSIS...BROAD MID TO UPPER LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE EXTENDS ACROSS
THE NORTHEASTERN CARIBBEAN FROM THE WEST CENTRAL ATLANTIC...TO MAINTAIN
AN EAST SOUTHEAST WIND FLOW ALOFT. AT THE LOW LEVELS... SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE RIDGE EXTENDS ACROSS SOUTHWEST ATLANTIC TO JUST NORTH OF THE
REGION...WHILE A BROAD TROUGH ALONG WITH FAIR AMOUNT OF ITCZ MOISTURE
CONTINUED TO EXTEND NORTHWARDS ACROSS THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN. A TROPICAL
WAVE WITH WAVE AXIS NOW CROSSING THE LESSER ANTILLES EARLY THIS MORNING
WILL ENTER THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN AND AFFECT THE LOCAL DURING THE
REST OF THE DAY THROUGH AT LEAST WEDNESDAY. SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWED
CONSIDERABLE AMOUNTS OF LOW TO MID LEVEL TROPICAL MOISTURE WITH
WIDESPREAD SHALLOW CONVECTION AHEAD OF AND TRAILING THIS WAVE AS
IT QUICKLY ENTERS THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WITH INCREASING
CLOUDINESS EXPECTED DURING THE MORNING HOURS ACROSS THE FORECAST REGION...AS
THE WAVE APPROACHES THE REGION TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY. WIDESPREAD RAINFALL
IS SO FAR NOT EXPECTED ACROSS THE ISLANDS AT THIS TIME...AS MID TO UPPER
LEVEL RIDGING AND INCREASING CLOUDINESS ACROSS THE AREA SHOULD HELP
TO LIMIT/SUPPRESS MUCH OF THE DAYTIME CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY.

LINGERING MOISTURE TRAILING THE WAVE ON WEDNESDAY WILL BE ENOUGH TO
COMBINE WITH LOCAL AND DIURNAL EFFECT FOR AFTERNOON CONVECTION. GRADUAL
IMPROVEMENT IN WEATHER CONDITIONS AND SOMEWHAT DRIER AIR MASS IS EXPECTED
ACROSS THE REGION FOR THURSDAY. ANOTHER TROPICAL WAVE IS FORECAST TO
MOVE ACROSS THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN AND AFFECT THE LOCAL AREA FRIDAY THROUGH
SATURDAY. LATEST GFS MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS...THAT THIS FEATURE WILL
BRING ANOTHER RAPID INCREASE IN PRECIPITABLE WATER AND TROPICAL MOISTURE
AND THEREFORE INCREASE THE CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS
THE ISLANDS AND SURROUNDING WATERS AT LEAST THROUGH SATURDAY. DRIER
CONDITIONS EXPECTED FOR SUNDAY...WITH ANOTHER ACTIVE TROPICAL WAVE SO
FAR FORECAST TO ENTER THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN EARLY NEXT WEEK. HOWEVER...
WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR TO SEE HOW THIS UNFOLDS.

&&

.AVIATION...APPROACHING TROPICAL WAVE WILL CAUSE AN INCREASE IN
PASSING SHRA ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA THIS MORNING...POSSIBLY
CAUSING BRIEF MVFR CONDS. WINDS WILL BE MAINLY FROM THE E-NE AT
AROUND 10-15 KNOTS WITH SEA BREEZE VARIATIONS DEVELOPING AFTER
05/13Z.

&&

.MARINE...TROPICAL WAVE MOVING ACROSS THE REGION TODAY THROUGH
WEDNESDAY WILL INCREASE SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS
THE COASTAL WATERS. THE ATLANTIC RIDGE NORTH OF THE AREA WILL HELP
TO MAINTAIN MODERATE TO FRESH TRADE WINDS ACROSS THE REGIONAL WATERS
THROUGH AT LEAST WEDNESDAY. SMALL CRAFT OPERATORS SHOULD EXERCISE
CAUTION ACROSS MOST OF THE LOCAL WATERS TODAY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 86 78 88 79 / 40 30 30 20
STT 90 79 89 81 / 40 40 40 20

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Puerto Rico Weather Aug 6, 2014 4:05:47 GMT -6

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Post by Deleted on Aug 6, 2014 4:05:47 GMT -6

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
516 AM AST WED AUG 6 2014

.SYNOPSIS...A TROPICAL WAVE OVER THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN WILL MOVE
WESTWARD ACROSS THE REGION TODAY. ANOTHER TROPICAL WAVE...THIS ONE
WITH MORE MOISTURE AND SHOWER ACTIVITY...EXPECTED LATE FRIDAY
AFTERNOON THROUGH SATURDAY AFTERNOON.

&&

.DISCUSSION...DOPPLER WEATHER RADAR DETECTED AN INCREASE IN SHOWER
ACTIVITY ACROSS THE REGION OVERNIGHT AND EARLY THIS MORNING AS A
TROPICAL WAVE MOVES ACROSS THE REGION. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND A FEW
THUNDERSTORMS AFFECTED THE EASTERN...NORTHEASTERN AND SOUTHEASTERN
SECTIONS OF PUERTO RICO AS WELL AS VIEQUES...CULEBRA...THE U.S.
VIRGIN ISLANDS AND SURROUNDING WATERS OVERNIGHT. HOWEVER...DUE TO
THE RAPID MOVEMENT OF THE SHOWERS THE TOTAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS
WERE SO FAR MINIMAL. AS THE WAVE CONTINUES WESTWARD MOISTURE ACROSS
THE REGION IS EXPECTED TO DIMINISH TONIGHT...THURSDAY AND EARLY
FRIDAY.

A BRIEF PERIOD OF DRY WEATHER WILL ENCOMPASS THE REGION
TONIGHT...THURSDAY AND EARLY FRIDAY. A STRONGER TROPICAL WAVE
IS EXPECTED TO APPROACH TO THE REGION LATE FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...
INDUCING A GENERAL INCREASE IN SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY
ACROSS THE LOCAL ISLANDS AND SURROUNDING WATERS. THE GFS COMPUTER
MODEL INDICATED PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES INCREASING TO NEAR 2.10
INCHES LATE FRIDAY AND SATURDAY IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE PASSAGE OF
THE WAVE. ACCORDINGLY TO THE GFS ANOTHER TROPICAL WAVE WILL MOVE
MOSTLY ACROSS THE CARIBBEAN WATERS SOUTH OF THE REGION MONDAY NIGHT
AND TUESDAY. THEREFORE...EXCEPT FOR SOME SHORT PERIODS OF DRY
WEATHER...THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS WILL REMAIN RELATIVELY MOIST...WHICH
WILL ALLOW FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EACH
DAY...MAINLY IN THE AFTERNOON HOURS. A SAHARAN AIR LAYER IS
EXPECTED TO ENCOMPASS THE REGION BY MID WEEK NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...SCT SHRA/ISOLD TSRA EN ROUTE BTW E PR AND NRN LEEWARDS
WILL CONT MOV W ACROSS FA TIL AT LEST 06/12Z. THEREFORE...BRIEF
MVFR CONDS AND MTN TOP OBSCR DUE TO PASSING SHRA AND LOW CIGS WILL
BE PSBL OVR ERN PR...AND ALL TAF SITES EXCEPT FOR TJBQ...TJMZ. AFT
06/17Z SHRA/ISOLD TSRA WILL DEVELOP OVR CENTRAL MTN RANGE OF PR AND
VCTY TJMZ AND TJBQ WITH MTN TOP OBSCR ONCE GAIN PSBL TIL 06/22Z.
LLVL WINDS E-SE 15 TO 25 KT BLO FL200 WITH HIR SFC WND GUSTS MAINLY
ACCOMPANYING SHRA/+SHRA.

&&

.MARINE...SEAS UP TO 6 FEET AND WINDS UP TO 17 KNOTS ARE EXPECTED
OVER THE COASTAL WATERS. SMALL CRAFT SHOULD EXERCISE CAUTION
ACROSS THE OFFSHORE ATLANTIC WATERS. WINDS WILL INCREASE AGAIN BY
THURSDAY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 88 79 89 79 / 40 20 20 20
STT 89 80 90 80 / 40 20 20 20

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Puerto Rico Weather Aug 8, 2014 4:02:36 GMT -6

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Post by Deleted on Aug 8, 2014 4:02:36 GMT -6

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
523 AM AST FRI AUG 8 2014

.SYNOPSIS...AT UPPER LEVELS...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE
ATLANTIC WATERS JUST NORTH OF THE FORECAST AREA UNTIL THE PRESSURE
WEAKENS FROM A TROUGH EXTENDING VERY WEAKLY OUT OF A LOW TO THE
EAST NORTHEAST ON TUESDAY. THIS LOW WILL PASS JUST NORTH OF THE
AREA ON SATURDAY OF NEXT WEEK...FOLLOWED IMMEDIATELY BY A RIDGE ON
SUNDAY.

AT MID LEVELS...HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE NORTH OF THE AREA
THROUGH THE NEXT 7 TO 10 DAYS. A WEAK TROUGH WILL PREPARE THE AREA
FOR A TROPICAL WAVE TODAY AND AGAIN ON SUNDAY. THE BEST MOISTURE
WILL OCCUR ON SATURDAY GENERALLY BEFORE NOON AND THEN ON SUNDAY
NIGHT AND MONDAY.

AT LOWER LEVELS...A TROPICAL WAVE MOVING THROUGH THE WINDWARD
ISLANDS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN SEA TODAY AND
PASS THROUGH PUERTO RICO THIS AFTERNOON. MOISTURE WILL DIMINISH
ON SATURDAY IN U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS AND EASTERN PUERTO RICO AND
SATURDAY NIGHT IN WESTERN PUERTO RICO...BUT RETURN ON SUNDAY
AFTERNOON WITH THE SECOND TROPICAL WAVE AND GOOD SHOWER AND
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY. MODEST MOISTURE CONTINUES FOR THE GREATER
PART OF NEXT WEEK BRINGING A CHANCE OF SHOWERS EACH DAY.

&&

.DISCUSSION...SOME SHOWERS BEGAN POPPING UP OVER THE LOCAL WATERS
OVERNIGHT...BUT ONLY A FEW ACTUALLY MOVED ONSHORE. SHOWERS WILL
CONTINUE TO INCREASE DURING THE DAY TODAY AS A TROPICAL WAVE
WITH GOOD MOISTURE MOVES INTO THE FORECAST AREA. HEAVY SHOWERS
HAVE BEEN OBSERVED CROSSING THE WINDWARD ISLANDS ON THE BARBADOS
AND MARTINIQUE RADARS. NUMEROUS SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO MOVE OVER
THE NORTHEASTERN TWO THIRDS OF PUERTO RICO BEFORE EARLY EVENING.
THE BEST MOISTURE IS EXPECTED AROUND 09/00Z WHEN THE GFS SHOWS
2.14 INCHES OF PRECIPITABLE WATER OVER SAN JUAN. BETTER MOISTURE
WILL ACTUALLY OCCUR OVER SAINT THOMAS AROUND 09/06Z AS SHOWERS
WILL LINGER OVER THE LOCAL WATERS FRIDAY NIGHT. SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL CLEAR FIRST IN THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS AND THEN
EASTERN PUERTO RICO ON SATURDAY. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...SOME
OF WHICH COULD BE QUITE HEAVY SHOULD REMAIN INTO THE EARLY EVENING
IN WESTERN PUERTO RICO BEFORE CLEARING. HAVE CHOSEN TO STAY WITH
THE GFS WHICH MOVES THE SYSTEM IN EARLIER THAN THE NAM SINCE THE
GFS HAS TENDED TO BE TOO SLOW AND THE NAM DOES NOT MOVE THE BEST
PRECIPITATION IN UNTIL EARLY SATURDAY MORNING. MOISTURE WILL
INCREASE AGAIN ON SUNDAY AFTERNOON OVER THE FORECAST AREA. THE GFS
BRINGS 30-35 KT WINDS AT 10 KFT ON MONDAY AFTER THE NEXT WAVE
MOVES THROUGH. MODELS DO NOT SHOW QUITE AS MUCH MOISTURE AND
EXPECT LESS RAINFALL OVERALL WITH THE SECOND WAVE ARRIVING SUNDAY
NIGHT AND MONDAY. THEN EASTERLY FLOW WITH MODEST MOISTURE PREVAILS
FOR MUCH OF THE FOLLOWING WEAK WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS EXPECTED
EACH DAY.

IN THE LONG RANGE...UP TO NOW THE GFS HAS BEEN SHOWING LOW
PRESSURE MOVING OFF OF AFRICA AND INTO THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC BY
SATURDAY OF NEXT WEEK. THE LATEST RUN...HOWEVER...SHOWS THE LOW
OPENING INTO A TROPICAL WAVE AS IT APPROACHES 40 WEST. THE WAVE IS
EXPECTED LATE THE FOLLOWING WEEK.

IN THE MEANTIME...AFTER THE FIRST AND SECOND WAVES PASS THROUGH
SAHARAN DUST WILL INCREASE EARLY NEXT WEEK AND PEAK AROUND MID-
WEEK. IT COULD PROVE TO BE AS DUSTY HERE THEN AS AT ANYTIME IN THE
LAST SEVERAL MONTHS.

&&

.AVIATION...MVFR CONDITIONS CAN BE EXPECTED OVER TKPK AND TNCM AS
TROPICAL WAVE BRINGS PERIODS OF TSRA/SHRA ACROSS THE EASTERN
CARIBBEAN SEA. ELSEWHERE...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL
THROUGH 08/12Z. THEN...TSRA/SHRA ARE EXPECTED TO AFFECT THE REST OF
THE TERMINALS THROUGH THE FCST PERIOD...WITH MVFR CONDITIONS WITH
EXCEPTION OF TJSJ AND TJPS WHERE MVFR WILL BE GENERALLY AFT 08/18Z
IF THEY OCCUR AT ALL. EASTERLY WINDS AT 10-20 KNOTS EXPECTED WITH SEA
BREEZE VARIATIONS.

&&

.MARINE...WINDS WILL INCREASE WITH THE PASSAGE OF EACH TROPICAL
WAVE AND MOST AREAS WILL HAVE AT LEAST 18 KNOTS DURING A FEW HOURS
OF THE DAY. NEVERTHELESS SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES ARE NOT EXPECTED
AT THIS TIME FOR THE NEXT 7 TO 10 DAYS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 88 78 89 79 / 60 60 50 40
STT 89 78 89 80 / 70 50 30 40

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Puerto Rico Weather Aug 9, 2014 4:30:13 GMT -6

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Post by Deleted on Aug 9, 2014 4:30:13 GMT -6

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
327 AM AST SAT AUG 9 2014

.SYNOPSIS...AT UPPER LEVELS...HIGH PRESSURE RESIDES NORTH OF THE
LOCAL AREA. A WEAK CUT-OFF LOW IS ABOUT 720 MILES NORTHEAST OF THE
LEEWARD ISLANDS. THE LOW WILL MOVE SOUTHWEST THROUGH TUESDAY AND
THEN WEST CROSSING NORTH OF PUERTO RICO ON THURSDAY. HIGH PRESSURE
WILL THEN RIDGE BACK OVER THE AREA LATER NEXT WEEK.

AT MID LEVELS...HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS LODGED BETWEEN 20 AND 30
NORTH LATITUDE. A WEAK TROUGH WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA AND SOUTH
ON SUNDAY. LATE IN THE FORECAST PERIOD A WEAK LOW MAY MAKE A
TRANSIT ACROSS THE AREA ON 19 AUGUST.

AT LOWER LEVELS...THE AXIS OF THE TROPICAL WAVE WHICH PASSED
THROUGH DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING ON FRIDAY WILL MOVE INTO
THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC. HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE IN THE CENTRAL
ATLANTIC UNTIL LATE NEXT WEEK. A WEAKER HIGH FORMS NORTH OF THE
AREA ON TUESDAY AND DRIFTS TO THE WEST DURING THE REMAINDER OF THE
WEEK. A SECOND TROPICAL WAVE WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA THIS SUNDAY
NIGHT AND MONDAY FOLLOWED BY GRADUAL DRYING THROUGH THE REST OF
THE WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS GRADUALLY DISSIPATED
OVERNIGHT...BUT A FEW SHOWERS REMAINED HEAVY AS THEY MOVED THROUGH
THE LOCAL WATERS AND OVER THE SOUTHEAST QUARTER OF THE PUERTO
RICO DURING THE PRE-DAWN HOURS. A FEW SHOWERS WITH MEASURABLE RAIN
ALSO MOVED ACROSS SAINT CROIX. MODELS SHOW VARYING DEGREES OF
DRYING TODAY AND SUNDAY...BUT HAVE GENERALLY GONE WITH THE GFS
WHICH DEPICTS DRYING OF THE LAYERS ABOVE 850 MB THAT WILL PRETTY
MUCH EXCLUDE THE WIDESPREAD FORMATION OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. LINGERING MOISTURE SHOULD ALLOW CONVECTION TO FORM
OVER WESTERN PUERTO RICO BEING CONCENTRATED IN THE NORTHWEST BY
THE FLOW BEHIND THE WAVE. A FEW SHOWERS MAY ALSO IMPACT THE
SOUTHEAST PORTION OF THE ISLAND DURING THE DAY AS RESIDUAL
MOISTURE WILL FORM A FEW SHOWERS. MUST REGARD THE NAM SOLUTION AS
TOO WET FOR THE EXPECTED DRYING ABOVE THE 850 MB LEVEL. IT SHOWS
MORE THAN 50 PERCENT ACROSS THE ENTIRE CENTRAL PORTION OF PUERTO
RICO WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS IN THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS. TIMING OF
THE GFS CONTINUES TO BE CLOSE OR A LITTLE LATE...SO AM KEEPING THE
INVASION OF MORE SHOWERS WITH THE NEXT TROPICAL WAVE FOR SUNDAY
AFTERNOON. CURRENT DEPICTIONS SHOW NO MORE RAIN ON SUNDAY
AFTERNOON THROUGH MONDAY THAN WAS HAD FRIDAY AND THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS. BUT WINDS OR NEAR-THUNDERSTORM GUSTS MAY BE STRONGER ON
MONDAY AND TUESDAY THAN THIS WEEK AS GFS SHOWS UP TO 34 KNOTS AS
LOW AS 9 KFT ON TUESDAY DUE TO A WIND SURGE BEHIND THE SECOND
WAVE. LOWER LEVEL FLOW BECOMES MORE NONDESCRIPT AFTER THIS WAVE
AND WE MAY HAVE TO WAIT UNTIL THE FOLLOWING WEEK FOR ANY
SIGNIFICANT WAVES TO PASS THROUGH THE LOCAL AREA SINCE AFTER THE
NEXT WAVE PASSAGE HIGH PRESSURE AT MID AND UPPER LOW LEVELS WILL
DEVELOP NORTH OF THE AREA. SAHARAN DUST WILL ALSO INCREASE AFTER
THE WAVE EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED ACROSS ALL TERMINALS THROUGH THE
FORECAST PERIOD. HOWEVER...VCSH AROUND TJSJ/TJPS/TIST/TISX SHOULD
CONTINUE UNTIL 9/12Z. THEN...SHRA/TSRA EXPECTED BETWEEN 09/18-21Z
OVER THE WESTERN INTERIOR OF PR WITH CLOUDS INCREASING CAUSING MTN
OBSCURATIONS AND POSSIBLE BRIEF MVFR CIGS OVER TJBQ/TJMZ. EAST WINDS
AT 10-20 KNOTS...WITH SEA BREEZE VARIATIONS.

&&

.MARINE...TRADE WINDS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE AREA WIND 15 TO 20
KNOT FLOW THAT WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MUCH OF NEXT WEEK. THIS WILL
KEEP SEAS IN THE 4 TO 6 FOOT RANGE IN THE UNPROTECTED WATERS.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS ARE NOT EXPECTED WITHING THE NEXT
10 DAYS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 88 78 90 78 / 20 0 40 60
STT 90 79 91 79 / 20 0 60 70

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Puerto Rico Weather Aug 10, 2014 4:17:44 GMT -6

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Post by Deleted on Aug 10, 2014 4:17:44 GMT -6

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
451 AM AST SUN AUG 10 2014

.SYNOPSIS...AT UPPER LEVELS...A CUT-OFF LOW WILL REMAIN NORTHEAST OF THE
FORECAST AREA...WHICH IS IN A GENERAL AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE...THROUGH
LATE NEXT WEEK. THE LOW WILL THEN MOVE WEST...TO NORTH OF PUERTO
RICO OVER THE WEEKEND.

AT MID LEVELS...A TROUGH WILL MOVE WEST OVER THE FORECAST AREA
SUNDAY NIGHT WHILE AN EAST-WEST RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS
BETWEEN 20 AND 30 NORTH LATITUDE. A SECOND TROUGH WILL MOVE
THROUGH ON FRIDAY. ANOTHER TROUGH WILL APPROACH ON SATURDAY AND
PASS ON SUNDAY OF NEXT WEEK. MID LEVELS REMAIN DRY UNTIL SUNDAY
NIGHT AND THEN TURN DRY AGAIN WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY.

AT LOWER LEVELS...MOISTURE FROM A TROPICAL WAVE WILL MOVE INTO THE
AREA SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY AND LINGER UNTIL EARLY WEDNESDAY
MORNING. ANOTHER TROPICAL WAVE IS EXPECTED NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.DISCUSSION...THE CARIBBEAN GRADUALLY BECAME PEPPERED WITH SMALL
SHOWERS IN THE MOSTLY EASTERLY FLOW. A FEW OF THOSE SHOWERS MOVED
INLAND OVER PUERTO RICO WILL LITTLE OR NO MEASURABLE
ACCUMULATIONS AS OF 5 AM AST. THE ENVELOPE OF MOISTURE AROUND A
TROPICAL WAVE NEAR 55 DEGREES WEST LONGITUDE IS NOW APPROACHING
THE WINDWARD ISLANDS AND IS EXPECTED TO ARRIVE IN THE U.S. VIRGIN
ISLANDS BY THIS AFTERNOON...AND IN EASTERN PUERTO RICO AROUND
MIDNIGHT TONIGHT. A FEW SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO PRECEDE THE
MOISTURE WITH THE AXIS OF THE WAVE MOVING THROUGH THE FORECAST
AREA ON MONDAY. AT THIS TIME PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS ARE EXPECTED TO
BE MODEST...BUT COVERAGE OF THE FORECAST AREA DURING THE 36 HOURS
BEGINNING 11/00Z SHOULD BE FAIRLY THOROUGH. THE GFS SHOWS
PRECIPITABLE WATER PEAKING AROUND 12/23Z. DRYING DOES NOT REALLY
BEGIN UNTIL EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING FOR MOST AREAS AND SOME
MOISTURE RETURNS WITH ANOTHER WAVE ON FRIDAY. THE GFS EXPECTS
BETTER MOISTURE ON SUNDAY OF NEXT WEEK THAT WILL EXCEED THE PEAK
ON TUESDAY. IT IS THIS MOISTURE THAT IS ASSOCIATED WITH A TROPICAL
WAVE NOW MOVING OFF THE COAST OF AFRICA THAT THE HURRICANE CENTER
IS GIVING A 20 PERCENT CHANCE OF DEVELOPMENT INTO A TROPICAL
STORM IN THE NEXT 5 DAYS.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR EXPECTED THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. SHRA WITH
ISOLATED MVFR OVER TNCM/TKPK AFTER 10/18Z...VCSH FOR TIST/TISX
AROUND 10/22Z. SCT-NUMR SHRA AROUND TJMZ-TJBQ BETWEEN 10/17-21Z WITH
OBSCURED MTNS OVER WESTERN INTERIOR OF PR. EAST WINDS AT 10-20
KNOTS...WITH SEA BREEZE VARIATIONS.

&&

.MARINE...MODERATE TO FRESH TRADE WIND FLOW WILL CONTINUE OVER THE
FORECAST AREA...AND INCREASE TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY BEHIND A
TROPICAL WAVE. VERY LOCAL AREAS OF SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS
MAY DEVELOP ON TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY MAINLY AROUND THE WESTERN
CORNERS OF PUERTO RICO AND IN THE CARIBBEAN OUTER WATERS SOUTH OF
PONCE.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 89 78 88 78 / 20 80 80 50
STT 90 79 88 80 / 20 80 80 60

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Puerto Rico Weather Aug 11, 2014 4:35:16 GMT -6

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Post by Deleted on Aug 11, 2014 4:35:16 GMT -6

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
431 AM AST MON AUG 11 2014

.SYNOPSIS...AT UPPER LEVELS...A CUT-OFF LOW NORTHEAST OF THE
LEEWARD ISLANDS WILL REMAIN STATIONARY UNTIL THURSDAY...THEN MOVE
WEST TO ABOUT 500 MILES NORTH OF AGUADILLA SATURDAY BEFORE BEING
CAUGHT UP AND CARRIED AWAY IN THE SOUTHWEST FLOW OF A MIGRATING
MID-LATITUDE TROUGH. AFTER A RIDGE MOVES THROUGH FROM A HIGH IN
THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC ON THE WEEKEND...A LOW WILL MOVE WEST INTO
THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN EARLY IN THE WEEK AND PASS JUST SOUTH OF
PUERTO RICO ON THE FOLLOWING WEDNESDAY.

AT MID LEVELS...HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE BETWEEN 20 AND 30
NORTH LATITUDE. WESTWARD MIGRATING TROUGHS WILL PASS THROUGH THE
FORECAST AREA TODAY...FRIDAY AND NEXT WEDNESDAY...BUT ONLY THE ONE
ON FRIDAY WILL BREAK THROUGH THE RIDGE TO THE NORTH AND THAT WITH
LITTLE EFFECT.

AT LOWER LEVELS...A TROPICAL WAVE WILL SPREAD MOISTURE OVER THE
LOCAL AREA TODAY AND TOMORROW. DRYING WILL OCCUR ON
WEDNESDAY...BUT PATCHES OF MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE MOVING THROUGH
THE AREA UNTIL LATE SATURDAY AND SUNDAY WHEN A TROPICAL WAVE...OR
POSSIBLY A TROPICAL DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA.

&&

.DISCUSSION...SHOWERS MOVED ACROSS THE EASTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH
COAST AREAS OF PUERTO RICO AND THROUGH THE CENTRAL PORTION OF THE
ISLAND AS FAR WEST AS UTUADO OVERNIGHT SPREADING UP TO HALF AN
INCH OF RAIN IN SOME AREAS. HEAVY SHOWERS WERE GENERALLY
STRADDLING THE SOUTHERN WINDWARD ISLANDS IN THE SOUTHEAST
CARIBBEAN AND THE WESTERN TROPICAL ATLANTIC BUT BANDS OF CLOUDS
WITH LIMITED VERTICAL DEVELOPMENT COULD BE SEEN ADVANCING ON
PUERTO RICO AND THE U.S.VIRGIN ISLANDS FROM MANY HUNDREDS OF MILES
EAST. WITH LITTLE SUPPORT FROM UPPER LEVELS BUT ALSO LITTLE SHEAR
TO TEAR ANY POTENTIAL CONVECTION APART. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
WILL GENERALLY GROW DURING THE DAYTIME HOURS OVER LAND AND THEN
OVER LOCAL WATERS AFTER SUNSET BOTH TODAY AND TUESDAY. THE GFS
SHOWS THE BEST PRECIPITABLE WATER ON TUESDAY AROUND 12/1800Z...BUT
THE OVERALL ATMOSPHERE IS SUFFICIENTLY UNSTABLE TO PRODUCE HEAVY
RAIN FROM TIME TO TIME THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD. THE WAVE IS NOT WELL
ORGANIZED NOR IS MOISTURE PARTICULARLY RICH BETWEEN 700 AND 500 MB
THEREFORE SUSTAINED CONVECTION IS NOT EXPECTED TO STREAM OVER ANY
ONE PLACE VERY LONG...HOLDING EXPECTED RAINFALL AMOUNTS TO 1 TO 2
INCHES DAILY EXCEPT IN THE MOST LOCALIZED AREAS. THIS COULD
PRODUCE LOCAL URBAN AND SMALL STREAM FLOODING. THE GFS IS STILL
BRINGING IN DRIER AIR WITH A SHARP GRADIENT BETWEEN THE TWO AIR
MASSES EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING...BUT THE NAM AND THE GFS BOTH
INDICATE THAT SOME SCATTERED SHOWERS IN THE USUAL DIURNAL PATTERN
WILL BE PRESENT WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY. IN FACT THE TROUGH THAT
COMES THROUGH FRIDAY AT MID LEVELS IS MOSTLY DRY. THE BETTER
MOISTURE COMES THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT.

AT THIS TIME THE GFS APPEARS TO BE SHOWING A GENERAL WEAKENING IN
THE LOW PRESSURE NOW NEAR 12 NORTH 28 WEST AS IT MOVES THROUGH THE
TROPICAL ATLANTIC. FOR THE TIME BEING...UNTIL DEVELOPMENT CAN BE
CONFIRMED...WILL TREAT THE DISTURBANCE AS A TROPICAL WAVE THAT
PASSES THROUGH THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN SATURDAY AND SUNDAY WITH GOOD
MOISTURE AND SOME INCREASE IN WINDS.

&&

.AVIATION...TROPICAL WAVE PASSING THROUGH THE FCST AREA WILL CREATE
SCT-NUM SHRA ACROSS MOST OF THE TERMINALS TODAY. THEREFORE...BRIEF
MVFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED. EAST WINDS WILL CONTINUE AT 10-20
KNOTS.

&&

.MARINE...SEAS WILL GENERALLY REMAIN AROUND 4 TO 6 FEET WITH WINDS
UP TO 20 KNOTS IN EXPOSED AREAS. AT THIS TIME DO NOT EXPECT SMALL
CRAFT CONDITIONS BEFORE SATURDAY NIGHT.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 86 79 86 79 / 60 50 70 30
STT 86 79 87 79 / 60 60 70 30

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Puerto Rico Weather Aug 12, 2014 4:10:01 GMT -6

Quote

Post by Deleted on Aug 12, 2014 4:10:01 GMT -6

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
506 AM AST TUE AUG 12 2014

.SYNOPSIS...AT UPPER LEVELS...A CUT-OFF LOW WILL SPIN ABOUT 500
MILES NORTHEAST OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS UNTIL THURSDAY. AT THAT
TIME IT WILL MOVE WEST NORTHWEST WITH THE TROUGH EXTENDING
SOUTHWEST FROM IT CROSSING PUERTO RICO THURSDAY MORNING. A RIDGE
EXTENDING FROM A CENTRAL ATLANTIC HIGH WILL CROSS THE AREA ON
SATURDAY THEN LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE IN FROM THE SOUTHEAST SUNDAY
THROUGH TUESDAY OF NEXT WEEK.

AT MID LEVELS...HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE ATLANTIC
WATERS NORTH OF US INTERRUPTED ONLY BY A BROAD TROUGH MIGRATING
WESTWARD THROUGH THE LOCAL AREA THURSDAY NIGHT AND EARLY FRIDAY
MORNING. ANOTHER BROAD TROUGH WILL MOVE THROUGH THE CARIBBEAN MID
WEEK NEXT WEEK.

AT LOWER LEVELS...A TROPICAL WAVE IS MOVING THROUGH THE LOCAL AREA
TODAY ACCOMPANIED BY WIDELY SPACED ARC-BANDS OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. CONSIDERABLE DRYING WILL BEGIN TONIGHT AS AIR LADEN
WITH SAHARAN DUST MOVES THROUGH ON WEDNESDAY. ISOLATED SHOWERS IN
THE EASTERLY FLOW ARE EXPECTED THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. ANOTHER
TROPICAL WAVE WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA ON SATURDAY WITH CLEARING
ON SUNDAY.

&&

.DISCUSSION...ISOLATED SHOWERS OVER THE LOCAL WATERS TONIGHT
BECAME MORE NUMEROUS AS BANDING IN THE TROPICAL WAVE DEVELOPED.
ALTHOUGH THE AXIS WAS DIFFICULT TO LOCATE...THE VAD PRODUCT ON
NEXRAD AT CAYEY SHOWED LOWER LEVEL WINDS TURNING FROM EAST
NORTHEAST TO EAST SOUTHEAST BETWEEN 12/03-12/06Z AND WITH
CONFIRMATION FROM NEWLY FORMING ARC-BANDS ON THE RADAR SUSPECT
THAT THIS WAS THE WAVE PASSAGE. GFS PROGNOSTICATIVE SOUNDING
SHOWED BEST PRECIPITABLE WATER AT 12/18Z THIS AFTERNOON AS WELL AS
CAPE OVER 3300 AND A LIFTED INDEX OF MINUS 7.4. THIS SHOULD GIVE
AMPLE SUPPORT FOR VIGOROUS THUNDERSTORMS NOTWITHSTANDING THE WIDE
SPACING OF THE SHOWER BANDS THAT ARE OCCURRING IN THE SOMEWHAT DRY
WAVE. EVEN AT THIS TIME THE SOUNDING SHOWS ONLY 70 TO 75 PERCENT
RELATIVE HUMIDITY THROUGH 30 KFT...THOUGH OBVIOUSLY WITH THE CLOUD
COVER THAT WE HAVE AT PRESENT BETTER RH WILL BE SEEN. THEREFORE IN
SPITE OF HIGHER POPS WILL JUST CALL FOR PERIODS OF SHOWERS AND
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS FOR MOST OF THE AREA. MODELS THEN SHOW
DRYING OCCURRING OVERNIGHT TUESDAY AND NAAPS SHOWS MODERATE
SAHARAN DUST OVER THE AREA MOST OF THE DAY WEDNESDAY. ALTHOUGH THE
BULK OF THE SOUNDING WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY IS DRY...ISOLATED
SHALLOW SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO FORM OVER EASTERN PUERTO RICO
DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS THAT WILL LEAVE A LITTLE MEASURABLE
RAIN. THEN IN THE AFTERNOONS BRIEF CONVECTION WILL FORM IN THE
AFTERNOONS IN WESTERN PUERTO RICO. THE THING THAT WILL BE FELT THE
MOST...HOWVER...WILL BE THE CONSIDERABLE INCREASE IN TEMPERATURES
WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY. WITH MORE SUN AND EASTERLY WINDS...SOME
INLAND SITES COULD RISE INTO THE MID 90S. THE PASSAGE OF THE
TROUGH AT MID LEVELS ON FRIDAY MIGHT ORDINARILY HAVE BROUGHT
ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS. IN FACT THE GFS SHOWS A LONG NORTHEAST-
SOUTHWEST BAND OF GOOD MOISTURE AT 850 MB OVER PUERTO RICO AHEAD
OF THIS TROUGH ON THURSDAY AT 14/18Z...THAT WILL CONTRIBUTE TO A
FEW MORE SHOWERS IN THE WEST THAN WEDNESDAY...BUT OVERALL DRY
CONDITIONS SHOULD KEEP WIDESPREAD SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL FROM
FORMING. THE GFS IS CONSISTENT IN BRINGING ANOTHER TROPICAL WAVE
THROUGH THE AREA ON SATURDAY. CURRENT MODEL RUNS SHOW BETTER
MOISTURE OCCURRING THEN THAN NOW...BUT IT WILL NOT LAST AS LONG AS
THE WAVE PASSAGE WE ARE NOW IN. CLEARING WILL BEGIN ON SUNDAY OF
NEXT WEEK. THE NEXT INFLUX OF MOISTURE SHOULD OCCUR AROUND MID-
WEEK. AT PRESENT MODEL RUNS ARE KEEPING TROPICAL DISTURBANCES AS
OPEN WAVES OVER THE AREA WITH ONLY WEAK LOWS FORMING.

&&

.AVIATION...PREVAILING VFR CONDS AT ALL TERMINALS EXCEPT FOR PASSING
SHRA OR VCSH THAT MAY BRIEFLY AFFECT MOST TERMINALS. AFTER
12/16Z...ISOLD TSRA PSBL ACROSS THE FCST AREA...WITH TEMPO MVFR
CONDS IN SHRA/ISOLD TSRA. ALSO...MTN TOPS OBSCURED DURG PD OVR PR DUE
TO LOW CLDS AND PASSING SHRA. WIND FM E-SE 15-25 KTS BLO FL200.
HIGHER GUSTS TO BE EXPECTED AT THE SURFACE NEAR TSRA.

&&

.MARINE...MODERATE TO FRESH TRADE WIND FLOW WILL INCREASE A LITTLE
ON WEDNESDAY AND KEEP SEAS RELATIVELY ROUGH IN ALL EXPOSED AREAS
DURING THE UPCOMING WEEK. EXPECT SEAS OF 4 TO 6 FEET IN EXPOSED
WATERS WITH SLIGHTLY HIGHER SEAS NEAR THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 85 77 91 78 / 70 30 10 10
STT 89 79 90 79 / 60 20 0 10

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Puerto Rico Weather Aug 13, 2014 3:56:18 GMT -6

Quote

Post by Deleted on Aug 13, 2014 3:56:18 GMT -6

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
541 AM AST WED AUG 13 2014

.SYNOPSIS...HIGH PRESSURE REMAINED NORTH AND WEST OF THE AREA
EXTENDING SOUTHWARDS ACROSS THE NORTHEASTERN CARIBBEAN. A TUTT LOW
WAS CENTERED ACROSS THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC AND WELL NORTHEAST OF THE
REGION. A VERY ACTIVE TROPICAL WAVE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA
SATURDAY.

&&

.DISCUSSION...VERY DRY AIR MASS HAS MOVED ACROSS PUERTO RICO AND
THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS THIS MORNING. LITTLE SHOWER ACTIVITY WAS
OBSERVED OVERNIGHT. SAHARAN AIR LAYER WILL CONTINUE TO SPREAD OVER
THE REGION THROUGH AT LEAST FRIDAY. THEREFORE...VERY DRY
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT. SOME
SHOWERS WITH ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS CAN BE EXPECTED OVER THE
WESTERN INTERIOR SECTION OF PUERTO RICO EACH AFTERNOON.

AN ACTIVE TROPICAL WAVE...LOCATED MIDWAY BETWEEN AFRICA AND THE
LESSER ANTILLES THIS MORNING...WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE WEST AND WILL
APPROACH THE LOCAL REGION SATURDAY MORNING. THIS WAVE WILL BRING
DEEP TROPICAL MOISTURE ACROSS THE REGION...WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER
VALUES EXPECTED TO INCREASE TO AS HIGH AS 2.3 INCHES BY SATURDAY
AFTERNOON. A SIGNIFICANT INCREASE IN SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORMS
ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO AFFECT THE LOCAL ISLANDS BEGINNING ON
SATURDAY MORNING AND LASTING TO PROBABLY SUNDAY MORNING. A DRIER
AIR MASS WILL MOVE AFTER THE PASSAGE OF THE WAVE SUNDAY AFTERNOON.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO PREVAIL ACROSS THE LOCAL
TERMINALS THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. DRIER AIR WITH SAHARAN DUST
IS MOVING IN WILL CONTINUE TO PRODUCE HAZY SKIES.
HOWEVER...VISIBILITIES SHOULD REMAIN P6SM. WINDS WILL BE MAINLY
FROM THE EAST AT AROUND 15 KNOTS WITH SEA BREEZE VARIATIONS DURING
THE MORNING HOURS.

&&

.MARINE...SEAS UP TO 6 FEET AND WINDS UP TO 18 KNOTS ARE EXPECTED
OVER THE COASTAL WATERS. SMALL CRAFT SHOULD EXERCISE CAUTION
ACROSS MOST COASTAL WATERS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 89 79 90 80 / 10 10 10 30
STT 90 81 91 81 / 10 10 10 20

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Puerto Rico Weather Aug 14, 2014 3:45:26 GMT -6

Quote

Post by Deleted on Aug 14, 2014 3:45:26 GMT -6

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
427 AM AST THU AUG 14 2014

.SYNOPSIS...HIGH PRESSURE NORTH OF THE AREA WILL MAINTAIN MODERATE
TO LOCALLY FRESH TRADE WINDS THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. TROPICAL
WAVE WITH AXIS NOW NEAR 46W IS EXPECTED TO REACH THE EASTERN
CARIBBEAN LATE FRIDAY...THEN MOVE ACROSS THE REGION SATURDAY
THROUGH EARLY SUNDAY BRINGING UNSTABLE WEATHER CONDITIONS ACROSS
THE REGION.

&&

.DISCUSSION...LIMITED SHOWER ACTIVITY WAS OBSERVED OVERNIGHT OVER
PUERTO RICO AND THE U.S VIRGIN ISLANDS. VERY DRY AIR AT MID LEVELS
OF THE ATMOSPHERE WILL KEEP CHANCES OF SHOWER LOW TODAY AND
FRIDAY. ONLY SOME SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP EACH AFTERNOON
MAINLY OVER THE WESTERN INTERIOR SECTION OF PUERTO RICO. AN
INCREASE IN CLOUDINESS AND SHOWERS IS EXPECTED SATURDAY MORNING AS
AN ACTIVE TROPICAL WAVE MOVES THROUGH THE AREA. LATEST COMPUTER
GUIDANCE CONTINUE TO SUGGEST DEEP TROPICAL MOISTURE WILL ACCOMPANY
THIS WAVE FROM SATURDAY MORNING LASTING TO SUNDAY MORNING.

THE MOST ACTIVE DAY IS EXPECTED SATURDAY...WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS
WITH ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS AFFECTING MOST OF THE LOCAL AREA.
FORECAST SOUNDING SHOWS PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES INCREASING TO
NEAR 2.2 INCHES BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON...WITH 700MB THETAE RIDGE OVER
THE AREA...WITH VALUES AS HIGH AS 340K. THEREFORE...ALTHOUGH THE
WAVE IS EXPECTED TO MOVE QUICKLY ACROSS THE REGION...URBAN AND
SMALL STREAM FLOODS ARE LIKELY...AS ATMOSPHERIC CONDITIONS WILL
BE FAVORABLE FOR THE FORMATION OF GOOD SHOWER ACTIVITY ACROSS THE
REGION.

AFTER THE PASSAGE OF THIS WAVE...A DRIER AIR MASS IS FORECAST TO
ENCOMPASS THE LOCAL AREA MONDAY. LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE DOESN`T SHOW
ANY OTHER SYSTEM AFFECTING THE REGION THROUGH AT LEAST THE END OF
NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH HAZY
SKIES DUE TO SAHARAN DUST. VISIBILITIES EXPECTED TO REMAIN P6SM.
LLVL WINDS BELOW FL100 WILL BE MAINLY FROM THE EAST AT 15-30 KT.

&&

.MARINE...WINDS UP TO 20 KNOTS AND SEAS UP TO 6 FEET ARE EXPECTED
OVER THE COASTAL WATERS. SMALL CRAFT SHOULD EXERCISE CAUTION
ACROSS MOST COASTAL WATERS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 89 79 90 79 / 10 30 30 10
STT 90 79 91 80 / 10 30 30 10

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Puerto Rico Weather Aug 15, 2014 3:56:53 GMT -6

Quote

Post by Deleted on Aug 15, 2014 3:56:53 GMT -6

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
540 AM AST FRI AUG 15 2014

.SYNOPSIS...MID-LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE WILL REMAIN NORTH OF
THE GREATER ANTILLES THROUGH AT LEAST MIDWEEK. AT LOW LEVELS...A
TROPICAL WAVE LOCATED NEAR 53 WEST WILL MOVE ACROSS THE ISLANDS ON
SATURDAY...BRINGING A FEW ROUNDS OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
ACROSS PR AND USVI. DRYING TREND IS EXPECTED ON SUNDAY INTO EARLY
NEXT WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...FRESH NORTHEASTERLY FLOW HAVE PUSHED PASSING SHOWERS
ALONG THE EAST AND NORTH PORTIONS OF PUERTO RICO EARLY THIS MORNING.
RADAR ESTIMATES A FEW TENTHS OF AN INCH NEAR EL YUNQUE AREA WITH
THESE MORNING SHOWERS. IN CONTRAST...THE SATELLITE TPW ANALYSIS
ESTIMATES PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES OF 1.3-1.5 INCHES UPSTREAM OF
THE LOCAL REGION. THIS DRY AIR MASS WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE WESTWARD
OVER THE ISLANDS LATER TODAY. IN ADDITION...A MID LEVEL RIDGE
NORTH OF PUERTO RICO IS SUSTAINING A FAIRLY STRONG TRADE WINDS CAP
ACROSS THE NORTHEAST CARIBBEAN ISLES. AS A RESULT...LIMITED SHOWER
ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE PUERTO RICO AND THE USVI TODAY.
THEN...THE TROPICAL WAVE NOW ALONG 53W WILL ENTER LATE TONIGHT...
AFFECTING USVI AND PR ON SATURDAY. A WIND SURGE ACCOMPANIED THIS
WAVE...THEREFORE STRONG GUSTY WINDS WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THE
THUNDERSTORMS. MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY WILL PEAK SATURDAY
AFTERNOON. THEREFORE...EXPECT STRONG SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
DEVELOPING ACROSS CENTRAL AND WESTERN PUERTO RICO SATURDAY
AFTERNOON. HOWEVER...MODELS SUGGEST THAT THE WAVE WILL CROSS THE
ISLANDS FAIRLY QUICKLY. IF THIS VERIFIES...THE RAPID MOVEMENT
OF THE WAVE SHOULD REDUCE THE RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS ACROSS THE
PR/USVI. OPERATIONAL MODELS SUGGEST A DRIER/DUSTY AIR MASS REACHING
THE LOCAL AREA ON SUNDAY AND CONTINUE THROUGH MIDWEEK NEXT WEEK.
LOW MOISTURE CONTENT AND A RELATIVELY STABLE ATMOSPHERE IN THE
WAKE OF THE WAVE WILL LIMIT THE SHOWER DEVELOPMENT ACROSS THE
LOCAL ISLANDS. ANY SHOWER WILL BE DEPENDENT ON INCOMING MOISTURE
RIDING IN ON THE TRADES. SEA BREEZE CONVERGENCE OVER WESTERN PR
WILL ALSO PRODUCE A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS/T-STORMS EACH AFTERNOON.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH HAZY
SKIES DUE TO SAHARAN DUST. VISIBILITIES EXPECTED TO REMAIN P6SM.
LLVL WINDS BELOW FL100 WILL BE MAINLY FROM THE EAST NORTHEAST AT
15-30 KT.

&&

.MARINE...WINDS OF 15-20 KT AND SEAS OF 3-5 FT ARE EXPECTED THROUGH
THE END OF THE WEEK. HOWEVER...SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED
TO INCREASE ACROSS THE LOCAL WATERS ON SATURDAY WITH THE PASSAGE
OF THE TROPICAL WAVE.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...MARGINALLY LOW HUMIDITY ALONG WITH 20-FOOT WINDS FROM
THE EAST OF 15 TO OCCASIONALLY 20 MPH...WILL ELEVATE THE FIRE DANGER
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN COASTAL PLAINS OF PUERTO RICO LATER THIS MORNING
AND AFTERNOON.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 88 78 89 78 / 20 20 60 30
STT 90 79 89 80 / 20 30 60 20

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Puerto Rico Weather Aug 16, 2014 3:55:56 GMT -6

Quote

Post by Deleted on Aug 16, 2014 3:55:56 GMT -6

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
526 AM AST SAT AUG 16 2014

.SYNOPSIS...A TROPICAL WAVE LOCATED OVER THE ANEGADA PASSAGE THIS
MORNING WILL MOVE RAPIDLY ACROSS THE REGION TODAY...BRINGING SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PR AND USVI. DRYING TREND IS EXPECTED ON
SUNDAY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. THEN...AN UPPER LEVEL LOW MOVES OVER
THE NORTHEAST CARIBBEAN BY MIDWEEK...INCREASING THE CONVECTIVE
INSTABILITY.

&&

.DISCUSSION...SATELLITE LOOPS SHOW THE TROPICAL WAVE ENTERING THE
EASTERN CARIBBEAN THIS MORNING. IN ADDITION...IR SAT IMAGERY HAS
SHOWED COOLING TOPS/INTENSE STORMS AS IT MOVES ACROSS THE LEEWARD
ISLANDS. THE LEADING EDGE OF THE WAVE HAVE PRODUCED SCATTERED SHOWERS
ACROSS USVI...CULEBRA...VIEQUES AND EASTERN PR. THESE SHOWERS HAVE
LEFT RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 0.25-0.50 INCHES SO FAR THIS MORNING.
LATEST BLENDED TPW ANALYSIS INDICATED A LARGE AREA OF 2.0+ INCHES
OVER THE LESSER ANTILLES. MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY WILL INCREASE
SIGNIFICANTLY OVER THE NEXT 6-12 HRS. THEREFORE...EXPECT SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING ACROSS PR/USVI REGION...WITH THE
STRONGEST EXPECTED OVER CENTRAL AND WESTERN PUERTO RICO THIS
AFTERNOON. OPERATIONALL MODELS SUGGEST THAT THE WAVE WILL CROSS
THE ISLANDS FAIRLY QUICKLY AT ABOUT 20 KT. THE MAIN CORCERN WITH
THIS WAVE IS THE STRONG GUSTY WINDS AND LOCALIZED FLOODING.

GRADUAL DRYING IS EXPECTED ON SUNDAY IN THE WAKE OF THE TROPICAL
WAVE. LOW MOISTURE CONTENT AND A RELATIVE STABLE ATMOSPHERE WILL
LIMIT THE SHOWER ACTIVITY EARLY NEXT WEEK. BY MIDWEEK...ALTHOUGH
MOISTURE WILL REMAIN NORMAL OR JUST BELOW NORMAL...UNSTABLE
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AS AN UPPER LEVEL LOW MOVES OVER PUERTO
RICO ON WEDNESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...PERIODS OF MVFR AND EVEN IFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED OVER
TNCM AND TKPK THROUGH AROUND 16/18Z IN SHRA/TSRA. AS TROPICAL WAVE
MOVES ACROSS THE AREA...CONDITIONS WILL DETERIORATE AT TIST...TISX
AND TJSJ AFT 12Z...SPREADING ACROSS THE REST OF PR TERMINALS AFTER
15Z. THEREFORE...PERIODS OF MVFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH TONIGHT.
LLVL WINDS BELOW FL100 WILL BE MAINLY FROM THE EAST 15 15 TO 20 KTS
WITH HIGHER GUSTS.

&&

.MARINE...WINDS OF 15-20 KT AND SEAS OF 3-5 FT ARE EXPECTED THROUGH
THE END OF THE WEEK. HOWEVER...SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ASSOCIATED
WITH THE TROPICAL WAVE ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE ACROSS THE LOCAL
WATERS LATER TODAY. THE MAIN HAZARD WILL BE THE GUSTY WINDS NEAR
THE THUNDERSTORMS AND THE DANGUEROUS LIGHTNING.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 89 79 89 79 / 70 30 30 20
STT 87 79 88 81 / 70 20 20 20

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Puerto Rico Weather Aug 17, 2014 3:33:25 GMT -6

Quote

Post by Deleted on Aug 17, 2014 3:33:25 GMT -6

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
515 AM AST SUN AUG 17 2014

.SYNOPSIS...MID LEVEL RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO DOMINATE THE WESTERN
ATLANTIC THROUGH TUESDAY. AN UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER THE CENTRAL
ATLANTIC WILL SLOWLY RETROGRESS OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS...ENTERING
THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN BY MIDWEEK. GRADUALLY DRYING IS EXPECTED
THROUGH EARLY TUESDAY. THEN...DECENT MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY
WILL ARRIVE ON WEDNESDAY ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER LOW.

&&

.DISCUSSION...TROPICAL WAVE OVER THE MONA PASSAGE/EASTERN HISPANOLA
WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE AWAY FROM THE REGION TODAY. SCATTERED LIGHT
SHOWERS HAVE BEEN OBSERVED ACROSS THE LOCAL ATLANTIC AND CARIBBEAN
WATERS. DOPPLER RADAR SHOWED LIGHT PASSING SHOWERS ALONG THE
EASTERN THIRD OF PUERTO RICO EARLY THIS MORNING. LINGERING
MOISTURE BEHIND OF THE WAVE WILL BE ENOUGH TO TRIGGER SOME
AFTERNOON CONVECTION ACROSS PORTIONS OF WESTERN PR.

RIDGE PATTERN ALOFT IS EXPECTED TO ERODE ANY AVAILABLE MOISTURE
TONIGHT AND MONDAY. THIS RELATIVELY DRY AND STABLE CONDITIONS
SHOULD PERSIST UNTIL LATE MONDAY. PATCHES OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
WILL ADVECT OVER THE ISLANDS ON TUESDAY MORNING...RESULTING IN A
FEW ROUNDS OF TRADE WIND SHOWERS ACROSS THE USVI AND EASTERN
PUERTO RICO. MID LEVEL RIDGE WEAKENS TUESDAY NIGHT AS AN UPPER LOW
MOVES OVER THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN. THIS UPPER LOW LOOKS DEEP ENOUGH
TO WEAKEN THE TRADE WIND CAP. MOISTURE COULD BE THE LIMITING
FACTOR...HOWEVER WILL BE ENOUGH TO SUPPORT SHALLOW CONVECTION OVER
THE LOCAL ISLANDS WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS ALL TERMINALS THROUGH
THE FCST PERIOD. THEN...BETWEEN 17/16Z-17/21Z SHRA/TSRA ACROSS THE
WESTERN INTERIOR OF PR WILL CREATE MTN TOP OBSC AND BRIEF MVFR CIGS
AFFECTING MAINLY TJMZ AND POSSIBLY TJBQ. LOW LEVEL WINDS WILL BE
EAST SOUTHEAST AT 15 MPH WITH HIGHER GUSTS AFTER 17/12Z.

&&

.MARINE...WINDS OF 15-20 KT AND SEAS OF 3-5 FT ARE EXPECTED FOR
THE NEXT FIVE DAYS. SMALL CRAFT OPERATORS SHOULD EXERCISE CAUTION
DUE TO LOCALLY FRESH WINDS ACROSS THE REGIONAL WATERS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 88 79 90 79 / 20 20 20 20
STT 90 79 90 80 / 20 20 20 20

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Puerto Rico Weather Aug 18, 2014 3:43:31 GMT -6

Quote

Post by Deleted on Aug 18, 2014 3:43:31 GMT -6

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
518 AM AST MON AUG 18 2014

.SYNOPSIS...TUTT LOW ACROSS THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC WILL CONTINUE
TO RETROGRESS OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS...REACHING THE CENTRAL
CARIBBEAN BY THE END OF THE WORKWEEK. NEXT TROPICAL WAVE IS
EXPECTED TO MOVE ACROSS THE LOCAL ISLANDS THURSDAY AFTERNOON.
HIGH PRESSURE NORTH OF THE AREA WILL MAINTAIN MODERATE TO LOCALLY
FRESH TRADE WINDS THROUGH AT LEAST FRIDAY.

&&

.DISCUSSION...MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES PREVAILED ACROSS THE LOCAL ISLANDS
OVERNIGHT...WITH A FEW SPRINKLES OBSERVED ACROSS THE LOCAL WATERS...
BUT NONE OVER LAND AREAS. TEMPERATURES WERE IN THE LOW 80S AT LOWER
ELEVATIONS...WITH LIGHT TRADE WINDS.

A GENERALLY FAIR AND MAINLY STABLE WEATHER PATTERN IS EXPECTED TO
PREVAIL THROUGH THE DAY...AS UPPER LEVEL CONVERGENCE STRENGTHENS
OVER THE LOCAL AREA IN RESPONSE TO RETROGRESSING TUTT LOW. HOWEVER...
ENOUGH MOISTURE WILL BE AVAILABLE TO COMBINE WITH LOCAL EFFECTS
AND DIURNAL HEATING TO PRODUCE ISOLATED TO LOCALLY SCATTERED SHOWERS
AND AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM OR TWO OVER THE WESTERN PORTIONS OF
PUERTO RICO IN THE AFTERNOON.

AS TUTT MOVES FURTHER WEST ON TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...MID LEVEL
INSTABILITY IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE AS WELL AS LOW LEVEL MOISTURE.
THIS WILL RESULT IN A BETTER CHANCE FOR PASSING SHOWERS ACROSS
WINDWARD AREAS IN THE MORNING...FOLLOWED BY SCATTERED AFTERNOON
SHOWERS WITH THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE CORDILLERA AND WESTERN
PUERTO RICO BOTH DAYS. LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTED BEST
MOISTURE ADVECTION EXPECTED ON THURSDAY AFTERNOON ASSOCIATED WITH
AN APPROACHING TROPICAL WAVE. IN GENERAL...EXPECT CHANCES OF RAIN
TO INCREASE TOWARD THE END OF THE WORKWEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS ALL TERMINALS THROUGH
THE FCST PERIOD. POSSIBLE -TSRA/SHRA OVER WESTERN INTERIOR PR AFTER
18/16Z MAY MAINLY TJMZ WITH BRIEF MVFR CONDS. LOW LEVEL WINDS WILL
BE EAST NORTHEAST AT 10 TO 15 KTS WITH SEA BREEZE VARIATIONS BETWEEN
18/13Z AND 18/22Z...WINDS DECREASING THEREAFTER.

&&

.MARINE...HIGH PRESSURE NORTH OF THE AREA WILL MAINTAIN MODERATE TO
LOCALLY FRESH TRADE WINDS THROUGH FRIDAY. MARINERS SHOULD EXPECT SEAS
UP TO 4 FEET AND WINDS BELOW 18 KNOTS THRU AT LEAST MIDWEEK.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 88 78 89 79 / 10 20 20 30
STT 89 79 90 79 / 10 20 20 30

Deleted

Posts: 0

Puerto Rico Weather Aug 19, 2014 3:35:42 GMT -6

Quote

Post by Deleted on Aug 19, 2014 3:35:42 GMT -6

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
458 AM AST TUE AUG 19 2014

.SYNOPSIS...UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL BUILD FROM THE EAST THURSDAY
AND FRIDAY...AS TUTT LOW...NOW LOCATED EAST OF THE LOCAL ISLANDS...
CONTINUES TO RETROGRESS. LOW PRESSURE ABOUT 1000 MILES EAST OF THE
LESSER ANTILLES IS EXPECTED TO MOVE ACROSS THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN
FRIDAY AND SATURDAY.

&&

.DISCUSSION...VARIABLY CLOUDY SKIES PREVAILED ACROSS THE LOCAL
ISLANDS OVERNIGHT...WITH ISOLATED TO LOCALLY SCATTERED SHOWERS
OBSERVED ACROSS WINDWARD AREAS. TEMPERATURES WERE IN THE LOW 80S
AT LOWER ELEVATIONS...WITH LIGHT TRADE WINDS.

AS TUTT LOW MOVES FURTHER WEST THROUGH THE DAY...INSTABILITY IS
EXPECTED TO INCREASE ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA AS WELL AS PRECIPITABLE
WATER. THIS WILL RESULT IN A BETTER CHANCE FOR PASSING SHOWERS
ACROSS WINDWARD AREAS THIS MORNING...FOLLOWED BY SCATTERED SHOWERS
WITH THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE CORDILLERA AND SOUTHWEST PUERTO RICO
IN THE AFTERNOON. ON WEDNESDAY...DUE TO THE PROXIMITY OF AFOREMENTIONED
TUTT AND ENOUGH LOW LEVEL MOISTURE...ANOTHER ROUND OF AFTERNOON
SHOWERS STILL EXPECTED ACROSS PORTIONS OF PUERTO RICO. HOWEVER...
AS LOW LEVEL WINDS BECOME EAST SOUTHEAST...THESE SHOWERS WITH
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE THEN FOCUSED ACROSS WEST AND NORTHWEST
PUERTO RICO AS WELL AS ACROSS PORTION OF THE SAN JUAN METRO AREA.
SOME REDUCTION IN AREAL COVERAGE EXPECTED.

A WETTER/ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN IS EXPECTED THURSDAY THRU AT
LEAST SATURDAY AS A WEAK AND ELONGATED AREA OF LOW PRESSURE AND
ASSOCIATED SHOWER/THUNDER ACTIVITY MOVE ACROSS THE EASTERN
CARIBBEAN. BASED ON NHC GUIDANCE...THIS FEATURE IS ABOUT 1000
MILES EAST OF THE LESSER ANTILLES AND DEVELOPMENT IS NOT EXPECTED
DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS WITH SOME SLOW DEVELOPMENT POSSIBLE
BY THE END OF THE WEEK. REGARDLESS DEVELOPMENT...THIS FEATURE COULD
BRING PERIODS OF HEAVY RAINFALL AND SQUALLY WEATHER THURSDAY
AFTERNOON THROUGH SATURDAY. STAY TUNED.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED ACROSS ALL TERMINALS THROUGH THE
FCST PERIOD. HOWEVER...VCSH WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT AND
EARLY MORNING HOURS. AFTER 19/16Z...ISOLD TSRA IS EXPECTED OVER THE
SOUTHWESTERN QUADRANT OF PR...POSSIBLY AFFECTING AREAS IN AND AROUND
TJMZ AND TJPS WITH BRIEF MVFR CONDS. SFC WINDS WILL BE FROM THE EAST
NORTHEAST WITH SEA BREEZE VARIATIONS AT ABOUT 10-15 KTS FROM 19/13Z
TO 19/22Z.

&&

.MARINE...WINDS 10-20 KT AND SEAS 3-5 FT THROUGH WEDNESDAY. WINDS
AND SEAS INCREASING RAPIDLY THU NIGHT THROUGH FRI NIGHT WITH
SOLID SCA CONDITIONS EXPECTED.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 89 79 90 79 / 40 30 30 20
STT 90 79 90 80 / 40 30 30 20

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Puerto Rico Weather

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