Puerto Rico Weather

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Puerto Rico Weather Nov 10, 2014 4:01:22 GMT -6

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Post by Deleted on Nov 10, 2014 4:01:22 GMT -6

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
436 AM AST MON NOV 10 2014

.SYNOPSIS...AT UPPER LEVELS...A NE-SW RIDGE OVER THE AREA WILL
SHIFT INTO THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN AND A WEAK SHORT WAVE WILL PASS
OVER THE AREA EARLY THURSDAY. HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS OVER THE WEEKEND.

AT MID LEVELS...LOW PRESSURE IN THE CENTRAL TROPICAL ATLANTIC WILL
DRIFT SLOWLY TOWARD THE WINDWARD ISLANDS AND DISSIPATE BY THE
WEEKEND. MEANWHILE HIGH PRESSURE IN THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC WILL
WEAKEN BUT CONTINUE TO STRETCH FROM THERE ACROSS THE GREATER
ANTILLES AND INTO THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN. MOISTURE IS QUITE LIMITED
IN THE MID LAYERS.

AT LOWER LEVELS...HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES ACROSS THE EASTERN AND
CENTRAL ATLANTIC GENERATING MODERATE TRADE WIND FLOW. MOISTURE
HOWEVER BECOMES RELATIVELY SHALLOW AND REMAINS SO POSSIBLY EVEN
THROUGH MID WEEK NEXT WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...SCATTERED SHOWERS COVERED MUCH OF THE CARIBBEAN AND
SOME OF EASTERN AND SOUTHEASTERN PUERTO RICO SINCE MIDNIGHT.
AMOUNTS WERE GENERALLY LESS THAN ONE THIRD OF AN INCH. MODEST
SHOWERS OF LIMITED EXTENT ARE EXPECTED ON THE WINDWARD SLOPES OF
PUERTO RICO AND THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS THIS WEEK IN THE LATE
NIGHT AND EARLY MORNING HOURS...WHILE A ONLY A FEW HEAVY SHOWERS
ARE ABLE TO DEVELOP IN WEST AND NORTHWEST PUERTO RICO AND ALONG
THE CORDILLERA CENTRAL DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS. WEAK BANDS OF
MOISTURE MOVING IN FROM THE EAST NORTHEAST IN THE 1000-700 MB
LAYER ON WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY AND SEVERAL WEAK SHORT WAVES WILL
ENHANCE THE SHOWER ACTIVITY...BUT AMOUNTS WILL STILL REMAIN
LIMITED IN NATURE AND CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN DRIER THAN LAST WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL DURING THE FORECAST
PERIOD AT ALL TAF SITES. VCSH IN AND AROUND TJPS/TIST/TISX/TNCM/TKPK
POSSIBLE TIL AT LEAST 10/06Z. THE 10/00Z TJSJ SOUNDING...INDICATED
EAST SOUTHEAST WINDS AT 5-20 KTS BELOW 2 KFT.

&&

.MARINE...MARINE CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE SOMEWHAT TODAY THROUGH
SATURDAY...BUT SOME 6 FOOT SEAS OR LOCAL WINDS ABOVE 17 KNOTS WILL
OCCUR AROUND LAND AREAS

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 89 78 88 76 / 20 30 30 50
STT 88 78 88 79 / 30 20 20 50

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Puerto Rico Weather Nov 11, 2014 4:14:22 GMT -6

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Post by Deleted on Nov 11, 2014 4:14:22 GMT -6

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
443 AM AST TUE NOV 11 2014

.SYNOPSIS...AT UPPER LEVELS...A SERIES OF THREE SHORT WAVE
TROUGHS WILL MOVE THROUGH A RIDGE OVER THE LOCAL AREA WEDNESDAY
MORNING...EARLY THURSDAY MORNING AND FRIDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL
RE-BUILD OVER THE AREA OVER THE WEEKEND AND PERSIST THROUGH AT
LEAST NEXT WEEK.

AT MID LEVELS...A RIDGE CONTINUES JUST NORTHWEST OF THE LOCAL AREA
THROUGH THE NEXT 10 DAYS.

AT LOWER LEVELS...HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE IN THE EAST CENTRAL
ATLANTIC FOR THE NEXT 10 DAYS. NORTHEASTWARD MIGRATING LOW
PRESSURES IN THE WESTERN ATLANTIC WILL WEAKEN THE PRESSURE GRADIENT
OVER THE LOCAL AREA THROUGH SATURDAY THEN MODERATE TRADE WINDS
WILL RETURN.

&&

.DISCUSSION...SCATTERED SMALL SHOWERS FORMED OVER THE ATLANTIC AND
CARIBBEAN WATERS NORTH AND SOUTH OF PUERTO RICO...BUT FEW ENTERED
PUERTO RICO OR THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS. PRECIPITABLE WATER HAS
DROPPED FROM OVER 2 INCHES TO LESS THAN 1.5 INCHES IN THE LAST 24
HOURS AND WILL CONTINUE TO FALL THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT...LEADING
TO DRIER CONDITIONS...ALTHOUGH SOME SCATTERED AFTERNOON SHOWERS
ARE STILL EXPECTED TODAY IN WESTERN PUERTO RICO. SHORT WAVES ALOFT
EARLY WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY WILL BRING A SLIGHT INCREASE TO
SHOWERS IN THE AREA AS WILL ALSO A BAND OF LOW TO MID LEVEL
MOISTURE PASSING THROUGH ON TUESDAY NIGHT. AFTER WEDNESDAY NIGHT
THERE IS A GENERAL INCREASE IN MOISTURE THROUGH THE WEEKEND AT
LEVELS FROM THE SURFACE UP THROUGH 600 MB...BUT HIGH PRESSURE
DOMINATES MID AND UPPER LEVELS THROUGH OUT THE PERIOD AND DRIER
AIR RETURNS AFTER THE WEEKEND. THE GFS ALSO INDICATES SLIGHTLY
DIMINISHING THICKNESSES THROUGH THURSDAY WHICH WILL LIKELY DROP
TEMPERATURES BY ONE OR AT MOST TWO DEGREES. TEMPERATURES AND
THICKNESSES RE-WARM EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD
AT ALL TAF SITES. VCSH BETWEEN EASTERN PR AND THE LEEWARD ISLANDS
STILL POSSIBLE UNTIL ARND 11/12Z. AFT 11/18Z-22Z MTN OBSCURATIONS AND
SCATTERED SHRA ARE FCST TO MOVE ACROSS OR NEAR TJMZ/TJBQ...THIS
ACTIVITY MAY PRODUCE BRIEF PERIODS OF MVFR. WINDS LIGHT AND
VARIABLE...AFT 11/13Z...EAST-SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS FLOW BETWEEN 5
AND 15 KTS WITH SEA BREEZE VARIATIONS.

&&

.MARINE...SEAS WILL VERY GRADUALLY SUBSIDE TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY
AS WINDS ALSO DIMINISH. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES ARE NOT ANTICIPATED
IN THE NEXT 8 DAYS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 89 79 86 79 / 20 40 40 20
STT 82 81 81 80 / 20 20 20 30

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Puerto Rico Weather Nov 12, 2014 4:13:26 GMT -6

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Post by Deleted on Nov 12, 2014 4:13:26 GMT -6

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
454 AM AST WED NOV 12 2014

.SYNOPSIS...AT UPPER LEVELS...A SHORT WAVE WILL MOVE THROUGH
PUERTO RICO AND THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS WEDNESDAY NIGHT. A SECOND
WEAKER TROUGH IN NORTHERLY FLOW WILL MOVE THROUGH THURSDAY
EVENING. A RIDGE WILL BUILD OVER THE AREA ON SATURDAY AND CONTINUE
TO EXTEND TO THE EAST NORTHEAST THROUGH THE FOLLOWING THURSDAY.

AT MID LEVELS...A NORTHEAST/SOUTHWEST RIDGE WILL EXTEND OUT OF THE
WESTERN CARIBBEAN JUST NORTHWEST OF THE AREA WHILE LOW PRESSURE
FADES OVER THE WESTERN TROPICAL ATLANTIC THURSDAY THROUGH
SATURDAY. HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OUT OF THE LOCAL AREA AND INTO THE
CENTRAL ATLANTIC NEXT WEEK WITH A RIDGE EXTENDING SOUTHWEST
THROUGH THE WINDWARD PASSAGE. MOISTURE IS GENERALLY LACKING IN THE
MID LEVELS.

AT LOWER LEVELS...GRADIENTS WEAKENED OVER THE LOCAL AREA DUE TO
A LOW OFF THE FLORIDA COAST RETREATING TO THE NORTHEAST. THEY WILL
GRADUALLY STRENGTHEN OVER THE WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT WEEK AS TRADE
WINDS ARE GENERATED BY HIGH PRESSURE IN THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC.

&&

.DISCUSSION...SHOWERS MOVED FROM THE EAST OVER THE LOCAL WATERS
LEAVING LIMITED ACCUMULATIONS WITH FEW SHOWERS MOVING OVER EASTERN
PUERTO RICO OR THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS. MIMIC ALSO NOTED HIGHER
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES MOVING OVER THE AREA ARND 12/00Z. SINCE
DRIER AIR IS EXPECTED TO FOLLOW...SHOWERS OVER THE AREA THIS
AFTERNOON...MAINLY CONCENTRATED IN WESTERN PUERTO RICO...WILL BE
LIMITED...BUT NOT ELIMINATED DUE TO THE PASSAGE OF THE UPPER LEVEL
SHORT WAVE TROUGH EXPECTED TO CROSS THE MONA CHANNEL FROM THE WEST THIS
AFTERNOON. SOME ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE. A BRIEF SHOT
OF MUCH DRIER AIR SHOULD CLEAR CLOUDS AND SHOWERS FROM THE AREA
OVERNIGHT TONIGHT...BUT MOISTURE REBOUNDS...AND EVEN
INCREASES...DURING THE DAY THURSDAY...SO BETTER SHOWER ACTIVITY IS
EXPECTED. AFTER THURSDAY THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BEGINS BUILDING
OVER THE AREA AND WILL KEEP SHOWERS SCATTERED AND SIGNIFICANT
WEATHER TO A MINIMUM THROUGH MUCH OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD
WITH VCSH BETWEEN EASTERN PR AND THE LEEWARD ISLANDS EARLY WEDNESDAY
MORNING. BETWEEN 12/16Z-22Z...MOUNT OBSC AND SHRA/TSRA EXPECTED
ALONG THE INTERIOR AND SOUTHWESTERN PR...AFFECTING MAINLY TJMZ/TJPS.
WINDS LIGHT AND VARIABLE...AFT 12/13Z...EASTERLY WINDS FLOW BETWEEN
5 AND 15 KTS WITH SEA BREEZE VARIATIONS.

&&

.MARINE...SEAS WILL GENERALLY DIMINISH FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS
AS WINDS WEAKEN. SEAS WILL REACH A MINIMUM...GENERALLY ON
SATURDAY...BEFORE SLOWLY REGAINING HEIGHT SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES ARE NOT EXPECTED BEFORE THE MIDDLE OF NEXT
WEEK.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 87 78 87 77 / 20 10 20 30
STT 87 77 87 80 / 20 20 20 50

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Puerto Rico Weather Nov 13, 2014 3:59:40 GMT -6

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Post by Deleted on Nov 13, 2014 3:59:40 GMT -6

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
541 AM AST THU NOV 13 2014

.SYNOPSIS...AT UPPER LEVELS...A SHORT WAVE TROUGH HAS CROSSED THROUGH THE
LOCAL AREA AND WAS FOUND OVER CULEBRA THIS MORNING. IT WILL BE
FOLLOWED BY NORTHERLY FLOW TODAY AND A RIDGE BUILDING NORTHEAST
INTO THE ATLANTIC NORTH OF THE AREA FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. HIGH
PRESSURE THEN MOVES OVER HISPANIOLA MONDAY WITH THE RIDGE IN THE
SAME GENERAL AREA TO THE NORTHEAST UNTIL IT FADES THE FOLLOWING
WEEKEND.

AT MID LEVELS...HIGH PRESSURE OVER CUBA DRIFTS EAST NORTHEAST
AND PASSES NORTH OF PUERTO RICO ON TUESDAY. A WEAK LOW PRESSURE
FORMS IN THE WESTERN TROPICAL ATLANTIC ON WEDNESDAY AND MOVES
SOUTH OF PUERTO RICO THE FOLLOWING FRIDAY. MID LEVEL MOISTURE IS
QUITE WEAK EXCEPT ON SATURDAY AND THE FOLLOWING FRIDAY.

AT LOWER LEVELS...WEAK LOW PRESSURE ABOUT 1700 MILES NORTH OF THE
WINDWARD ISLANDS HAS INDUCED TROUGHINESS AND REDUCED PRESSURE
GRADIENTS OVER THE LOCAL AREA WHILE BREAKING THE RIDGE LINE OF THE
SUB TROPICAL LOW ACROSS THE ATLANTIC NEAR 28 DEGREES NORTH
LATITUDE. A MID LATITUDE HIGH PRESSURE MOVES INTO THE WESTERN
ATLANTIC ON SUNDAY AND MIGRATES TO THE EAST CENTRAL ATLANTIC BY
TUESDAY. EASTERLY TRADE WINDS CONTINUE THROUGH THE ENTIRETY OF
NEXT WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...SHOWERS FADED OVER MUCH OF THE LOCAL WATERS
OVERNIGHT...BUT IN THE SOUTHEAST CORNER OF THE LOCAL WATERS AROUND
SAINT CROIX SHOWERS WERE PRESENT SINCE MIDNIGHT. ALTHOUGH TROUGH
PASSAGE AT UPPER LEVELS HAS ALREADY OCCURRED FOR PUERTO RICO AND
CULEBRA AND VIEQUES...A LOW LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE ANEGADA PASSAGE
WILL MOVE THROUGH PUERTO RICO DURING THE DAY AND ENHANCE SHOWER
ACTIVITY. A DRY SLOT MOVED THROUGH THE AREA AHEAD OF IT AND
MOISTURE WILL REBOUND TO AROUND 1.6 INCHES DURING THE DAY TODAY.
NEVERTHELESS INSTABILITY WILL REMAIN MODEST WITH A LIFTED INDEX OF MINUS
3.3. THIS SHOULD LEAD TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS IN THE INTERIOR
WITH ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS OVER LAND ELSEWHERE.

THE EXACT PLACEMENT OF SHOWERS WAS ALSO COMPLICATED BY DIFFERENCES
BETWEEN THE WRF AND THE NAM5 MODELS. THE WRF AND THE GFS FAVORED A
MORE SOUTHERLY PLACEMENT OF PRECIPITATION WITH MORE NORTHEASTERLY
WIND FLOW AT THE SURFACE...WHILE THE NAM SHOWED THE INFLUENCE OF THE EAST
SOUTHEAST WINDS AT AND ABOVE 3 KFT THAT OCCUR AS THE TROUGH PASSES.
HAVE GONE WITH A COMBINATION OF THE TWO SOLUTIONS. AMOUNTS SHOULD
BE TOLERABLE AS FLOW WILL ALLOW CELLS TO MOVE AND DRIER MID LEVEL
MOISTURE WILL CONSTRAIN THE STRENGTH AND HEIGHT OF THE CONVECTION.

PRECIPITABLE WATER CONTINUES ABOVE 1.5 INCHES OVER THE WEEKEND AND
AT LEAST SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED EACH DAY. WITH LITTLE
CHANGE IN THE UPPER ATMOSPHERE THEREAFTER...RAINFALL VARIATIONS
SHOULD BE LIMITED TO THOSE CAUSED BY VARIATIONS IN THE LOWER LEVEL
MOISTURE PRESENTED BY PASSING BANDS. A WEAK EASTERLY WAVE MAY PASS
ON FRIDAY OF NEXT WEEK FOLLOWED BY DRIER AIR.

&&

.AVIATION...MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE FORECAST
PERIOD. HOWEVER...VCSH POSSIBLE IN AND AROUND THE LEEWARD ISLANDS
AND EASTERN PR EARLY IN THE MORNING AND BETWEEN 13/18-22Z...
SHRA/TSRA ARE EXPECTED OVER CENTRAL-WESTERN PR...IMPACTING MAINLY
TJMZ AND TJPS. SURFACE WINDS WILL BE E TO NE AROUND 10 KT WITH SEA
BREEZE VARIATIONS AND GUSTY IN AND AROUND SHRA AFTER 13/12Z.

&&

.MARINE...SEAS ARE GENERALLY TRANQUIL...THAT IS UP TO 4 FEET...WITH
THE LIGHTER WINDS...BUT AS WINDS INCREASE WITH THE TIGHTENING
GRADIENTS EXPECT UP TO 6 FEET BY SUNDAY. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES
DURING THE NEXT 7 DAYS ARE NOT ANTICIPATED AT THIS TIME.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 87 77 86 78 / 30 30 40 50
STT 86 80 87 79 / 40 40 40 60

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Puerto Rico Weather Nov 14, 2014 4:02:01 GMT -6

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Post by Deleted on Nov 14, 2014 4:02:01 GMT -6

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
543 AM AST FRI NOV 14 2014

.SYNOPSIS...BROAD HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE CENTERED ACROSS THE CENTRAL
CARIBBEAN BUILDS NORTH AND EASTWARDS ACROSS THE NORTHEASTERN
CARIBBEAN. AT THE SURFACE...PATCHES OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL
CONTINUE TO MOVE ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA TODAY.

&&

.DISCUSSION...SCATTERED PASSING SHOWERS WERE NOTED OVER THE LOCAL
WATERS OVERNIGHT. SOME OF THESE SHOWERS AFFECTED THE U.S. VIRGIN
ISLANDS AND EASTERN PUERTO RICO FROM TIME TO TIME. AN INCREASE IN
MOISTURE IS EXPECTED TODAY WHICH WILL ALLOW FOR BETTER CHANCES FOR
SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT ACROSS THE AREA.

FOR THE UPCOMING WEEKEND...TRADE WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO TRANSPORT
PASSING SHOWERS ACROSS THE LOCAL REGION MAINLY DURING THE NIGHT
AND MORNING HOURS. FOR THE AFTERNOON HOURS...SHOWERS WITH
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP MAINLY OVER THE
WESTERN INTERIOR SECTION OF PUERTO RICO. PASSING SHOWERS ARE
EXPECTED OVER THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS.

IN THE LONG TERM...A STRONG HIGH PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO BUILD
NORTH OF THE AREA BY MID NEXT WEEK. THIS WILL HELP TIGHTEN THE
LOCAL PRESSURE GRADIENT...AND THUS INCREASE THE EASTERLY TRADES
ONCE AGAIN. AT THIS TIME...NO SIGNIFICANT WEATHER EVENTS ARE
FORECAST TO AFFECT THE LOCAL REGION.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE LOCAL FLYING AREA
THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. SHRA/ISOLD TSRA EXPECTED IN AND AROUND
TJMZ BETWEEN 14/18Z-21Z. BRIEF PERIOD OF MVFR/IFR CONDS AND MOUNTAIN
OBSCURATIONS ARE POSSIBLE IN TJMZ THIS AFTERNOON. EAST WINDS OF
10-20 KT EXPECTED BELOW FL150.

&&

.MARINE...SEAS UP TO 4 FEET AND WINDS UP TO 15 KNOTS TODAY. FAIRLY
TRANQUIL SEAS AND LIGHT EASTERLY TRADES EXPECTED THROUGH FRIDAY
AND INTO THE WEEKEND. THE EASTERLY TRADE WINDS WILL INCREASE ONCE
AGAIN BY SUNDAY AND INTO THE UPCOMING WEEK. BY THAT TIME
PRECAUTION STATEMENTS OR SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES MAY BE REQUIRED.
PLEASE REFER TO THE LATEST COASTAL WATERS FORECAST ISSUED BY THE
WFO SAN JUAN PUERTO RICO.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 88 76 85 76 / 30 30 30 30
STT 87 75 88 78 / 30 30 30 40

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Puerto Rico Weather Nov 15, 2014 4:10:49 GMT -6

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Post by Deleted on Nov 15, 2014 4:10:49 GMT -6

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
520 AM AST SAT NOV 15 2014

.SYNOPSIS...BROAD HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE CENTERED ACROSS THE CENTRAL
CARIBBEAN BUILDS NORTH AND EASTWARDS ACROSS THE NORTHEASTERN
CARIBBEAN. AT THE SURFACE...PATCHES OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL
CONTINUE TO MOVE ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA TODAY.

&&

.DISCUSSION...ONCE AGAIN...SCATTERED PASSING SHOWERS WERE NOTED
OVER THE LOCAL WATERS OVERNIGHT. SOME OF THESE SHOWERS AFFECTED
THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS AND EASTERN PUERTO RICO FROM TIME TO TIME.
AN INCREASE IN MOISTURE IS EXPECTED TODAY WHICH WILL ALLOW FOR
BETTER CHANCES FOR SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT ACROSS THE
AREA. WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE MAINLY FROM THE EAST TODAY.
THIS WILL RESULT IN SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPMENT OVER THE
WESTERN INTERIOR AND WEST SECTION OF PUERTO RICO...AND POSSIBLE
OVER NORTHWESTERN PUERTO RICO. REST OF PUERTO RICO WILL REMAIN
RELATIVELY DRY WITH ONLY SOME PASSING SHOWERS EXPECTED MAINLY IN
THE MORNING HOURS.

BROAD HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE CENTERED ACROSS THE CENTRAL
CARIBBEAN BUILDS NORTH AND EASTWARDS ACROSS THE NORTHEASTERN
CARIBBEAN. THIS HIGH PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO REMAINS ACROSS THE
NORTHEAST CARIBBEAN DURING THE WORK WEEK...WHICH WILL HELP TO
MAINTAIN A STABLE WEATHER PATTERN ACROSS THE REGION.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE LOCAL FLYING AREA
THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. SHRA/ISOLD TSRA EXPECTED IN AND AROUND
TJMZ AND TJBQ BETWEEN 15/18Z-21Z. BRIEF PERIOD OF MVFR/IFR CONDS AND
MOUNTAIN OBSCURATIONS ARE POSSIBLE IN TJMZ AND TJBQ THIS AFTERNOON.
EAST WINDS OF 5-15 KT EXPECTED BELOW FL200.

&&

.MARINE...SEAS UP TO 4 FEET AND WINDS UP TO 17 KNOTS ARE EXPECTED
OVER THE COASTAL WATERS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 86 75 87 75 / 40 50 50 20
STT 87 78 88 79 / 50 50 50 30

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Puerto Rico Weather Nov 16, 2014 4:19:24 GMT -6

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Post by Deleted on Nov 16, 2014 4:19:24 GMT -6

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
530 AM AST SUN NOV 16 2014

.SYNOPSIS...BROAD HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE CENTERED ACROSS THE CENTRAL
CARIBBEAN BUILDS NORTH AND EASTWARDS ACROSS THE NORTHEASTERN
CARIBBEAN. AT THE SURFACE...PATCHES OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL
CONTINUE TO MOVE ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA TODAY.

&&

.DISCUSSION....SCATTERED PASSING SHOWERS WERE NOTED OVER THE
LOCAL WATERS OVERNIGHT. SOME OF THESE SHOWERS AFFECTED THE U.S.
VIRGIN ISLANDS AND EASTERN PUERTO RICO FROM TIME TO TIME. WINDS
ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE MAINLY FROM THE EAST TODAY. THIS WILL
RESULT IN SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPMENT OVER THE WESTERN
INTERIOR AND WEST SECTION OF PUERTO RICO...AND POSSIBLE OVER
NORTHWESTERN PUERTO RICO. REST OF PUERTO RICO WILL REMAIN
RELATIVELY DRY WITH ONLY SOME PASSING SHOWERS EXPECTED MAINLY IN
THE MORNING HOURS. MODEL GUIDANCE INDICATED PRECIPITABLE WATER
VALUES WILL REMAIN AROUND 1.8 INCHES WITH MID LEVEL DRYING
EXPECTED DURING THE DAY.

BROAD HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE CENTERED ACROSS THE CENTRAL
CARIBBEAN BUILDS NORTH AND EASTWARDS ACROSS THE NORTHEASTERN
CARIBBEAN. THIS HIGH PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO REMAINS ACROSS THE
NORTHEAST CARIBBEAN DURING THE WORK WEEK...WHICH WILL HELP TO
MAINTAIN A STABLE WEATHER PATTERN ACROSS THE REGION. DRIER WEATHER
CONDITIONS ARE THEN EXPECTED...WITH TRADE WIND SHOWERS AFFECTING
THE LOCAL REGION FORM TIME TO TIME.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE LOCAL FLYING AREA
THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. SHRA/ISOLD TSRA EXPECTED IN AND AROUND
TJMZ BETWEEN 16/18Z-21Z. BRIEF PERIOD OF MVFR/IFR CONDS AND MOUNTAIN
OBSCURATIONS ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS WESTERN PR THIS AFTERNOON. EAST
WINDS OF 15-20 KT EXPECTED BELOW FL200.

&&

.MARINE...SEAS UP TO 6 FEET AND WINDS UP TO 20 KNOTS ARE EXPECTED
OVER THE COASTAL WATERS. SMALL CRAFT SHOULD EXERCISE CAUTION
ACROSS MOST COASTAL WATERS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 87 75 87 76 / 20 20 20 20
STT 87 77 88 78 / 30 30 30 20

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Puerto Rico Weather Nov 17, 2014 3:59:11 GMT -6

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Post by Deleted on Nov 17, 2014 3:59:11 GMT -6

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
435 AM AST MON NOV 17 2014

.DISCUSSION...LOWER AND MID LEVEL RIDGING NORTH OF AREA WILL MIGRATE
TO NEAR 30N/50W BY LATE MON. IT WILL THEN SPIN THERE MOST OF THE
WEEK AND ROTATE GENERALLY DRY MARITIME POLAR AIR INTO THE ANTILLES
REGION. THIS REGIME ENDS FRI/SAT AS REMNANT MOISTURE FROM A COLD
FRONT ROTATING AROUND THE RIDGE COMBINES WITH A VERY WEAK TROPICAL
WAVE THAT 00Z GFS SHOWS PASSING OVER USVI/PR VERY LATE FRI NIGHT
AND SAT.

BELOW SEASONAL PRECIPITABLE WATER TO PERSIST THIS WEEK UNTIL AT
LEAST THU NIGHT FRI THEN TO PEAK ON SAT. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED BUT
SHALLOW SHOWERS WILL PASS OVER USVI/EASTERN PR EACH NIGHT WHILE
SCATTERED SHOWERS REDEVELOP FOR WESTERN PR IN AFTERNOONS BUT
USUALLY WITHOUT THUNDER.

&&

.AVIATION...BRIEF TRADE WIND SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE TO AFFECT THE
LOCAL AREA FROM TIME TO TIME THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD...WITH
SOME OF THEM AFFECTING THE LEEWARD AND USVI TERMINALS AS WELL AS
JSJ. SHRA/ISOLD TSRA POSSIBLE IN AND AROUND TJMZ BETWEEN 17/18Z-
21Z AND MAY RESULT IN BRIEF PERIODS OF MVFR CONDS AND MOUNTAIN
OBSCURATIONS. LOW LEVEL WINDS WILL CONTINUE MAINLY FROM THE ENE AT
15 TO 20 KTS.

&&

.MARINE...SCATTEROMETER AT 07Z THIS MORNING SHOWS WINDS RANGING
FROM 16 TO 19 KNOTS OVER SURROUNDING WATERS. WINDS ON THE HIGHER
SIDE IN THE CARIBBEAN BUT THE LEEWARDS ARE SHAVING THE SEAS DOWN A
BIT THERE. BUOY 41043 HAS REACHED 6.5 FT BUT BUOYS CLOSER TO SHORE
ARE STILL APPROACHING 5 FT...ALL WITH PERIODS OF ONLY 6 TO 8 SECONDS.
WINDS RISING A LITTLE AT TIMES TODAY AND WITH THE LONGER DURATION
SUGGEST 7 FT IS LIKELY FOR ATLANTIC WATERS AND ANEGADA PASSAGE.
THAT ALONG WITH THE SHORT PERIOD SEAS A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WAS
ISSUED FOR LATE TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 88 77 87 75 / 20 20 20 10
STT 88 78 88 79 / 30 20 20 20

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Puerto Rico Weather Nov 18, 2014 3:27:21 GMT -6

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Post by Deleted on Nov 18, 2014 3:27:21 GMT -6

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
454 AM AST TUE NOV 18 2014

.DISCUSSION...HIGH PRESSURE IS ABOUT TO FIND ITS SHORT TERM HOME
AROUND 30N/45W WITH A RIDGE EXTENDING BACK TOWARDS CUBA. COLD
FRONT FROM FL WILL WEAKEN THE RIDGE BUT TO NOT GO AWAY THIS WEEK.
THIS IMPLIES THE STRONG TRADES HERE WILL LIKELY MAINTAIN THROUGH
THE WEEK TOO. SCATTEROMETER AT 07Z SHOWS 16-18 KT TRADES NORTH OF
THE ISLANDS AND AN AREA OF 20 KT IN CARRIBEAN SOUTH OF PR. 00Z GFS
STILL EXPECTS RELATIVELY DRY AIR TO ROTATE AROUND THE HIGH AND
INTO PR/USVI UNTIL A BAND OF MOISTURE MERGES WITH A WEAK TROPICAL
WAVE TO ARRIVE ON SAT.

NEXT PATCH OF RELATIVELY HIGH MOISTURE WAS OVER NORTHERN LEEWARDS
AT 06Z AND GFS PUSHES IT TO CENTRAL PR BY 18Z TODAY...IN TIME TO
AID IN SOME CONVECTION FOR THE WEST. IT IS ENOUGH MOISTURE FOR
SCATTERED SHOWERS AGAIN TODAY IN WESTERN PR AND MAYBE A TSTORM OR
TWO LIKE MON...LITTLE DIFFERENCE EXPECTED IN CONVECTION ANY DAY
THROUGH FRI. ISOLATED/SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE NIGHTTIME
FOR USVI AND EASTERN PR.

&&

.AVIATION...XPCT CONTD VFR THO SCT SHRA TO PROVIDE PSBL MVFR AT
TJMZ IN AFT AND ISOLD SHRA/MVFR HAS OUTSIDE CHC ELSEWHERE MAINLY
AT NIGHT. WINDS 15-26 KT THRU WED...ERLY TO FL100 AND ENE ABV TO
FL200.

&&

.MARINE...SLIGHTLY STRONGER SURFACE WINDS ON CARIBBEAN SIDE
CONTINUE FOR NOW BUT THE LONGER FETCH AREA IN ATLANTIC IS ALLOWING
SEAS THERE TO REACH 7.5 FT AT BUOY 41043 BUT STILL APPROACHING 6
FT AT BUOYS NEAR SAN JUAN...ST. THOMAS/ST. JOHN. MODELS HAVE BEEN
A LITTLE TOO QUICK TO PUSH SEAS TO 7 FT CLOSE THE ISLANDS BUT
BELIEVE IT WILL GET THERE WED NIGHT OR THU. SWAN MODEL IS MORE
CONSERVATIVE SO FAR AND USED IT FOR THIS FORECAST.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 88 76 86 74 / 40 20 20 40
STT 87 77 88 78 / 20 30 30 40

Deleted

Posts: 0

Puerto Rico Weather Nov 19, 2014 4:25:15 GMT -6

Quote

Post by Deleted on Nov 19, 2014 4:25:15 GMT -6

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
600 AM AST WED NOV 19 2014

.SYNOPSIS...STRONG SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC
WILL REMAIN IN PLACE FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS...CAUSING BREEZY
CONDITIONS OVER THE LOCAL AREA. UPPER RIDGE OVER THE CARIBBEAN
WILL SLOWLY WEAKEN BUT REMAIN DOMINANT OVER THE LOCAL
ISLANDS...WHILE AN UPPER LOW IS EXPECTED TO STRENGTHEN OVER THE
LEEWARD ISLANDS BY THURSDAY...CONVERGENCE OVER THE LOCAL AREA IN
THE UPPER LEVELS IS EXPECTED LATE THIS WEEK AND INTO THE WEEKEND.

&&

.DISCUSSION...QUICK PASSING SHOWERS ARE BEING OBSERVED EARLY THIS
MORNING AND ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TODAY FOR MOST OF THE LOCAL ISLANDS.
AFTERNOON DEVELOPMENT OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS WESTERN
PR IS LIKELY. AVAILABLE MOISTURE IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN CONSTANT
FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS...WITH THE RELATIVELY STRONG EASTERLY
WIND...TODAY MAY BE SIMILAR TO WHAT HAPPENED YESTERDAY. SAME
OVERALL PATTERN FOR FRIDAY BUT MOISTURE WILL INCREASE ACROSS
EASTERN PR AND THE USVI...SO AT LEAST SCATTERED PASSING SHOWERS
ARE EXPECTED ON FRIDAY THROUGH THE DAY OVER THOSE AREAS.

THE WEEKEND MAY START A BIT RAINY WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES
OVER 2 INCHES OVER THE LOCAL AREA...HOWEVER THE HIGH PRESSURE
ALOFT AND THE UPPER LOW TO THE EAST OF THE LOCAL AREA MAY LIMIT
VERTICAL DEVELOPMENT OF THE SHOWERS ON SATURDAY...SO MOSTLY CLOUDY
AND RAINY CONDITIONS SEEM TO BE THE LIKELY SCENARIO WITH MAYBE
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS. STARTING TO DRY ON SUNDAY WITH A BREEZE
EAST NORTHEAST WIND...CONTINUING THIS DURING TREND THROUGH THE
FIRST FEW DAYS OF THE UPCOMING WEEK WITH ONLY PATCHES OF HIGHER
MOISTURE BRIEFLY AFFECTING THE AREA.

&&

.AVIATION...PREVAILING VFR CONDITIONS TODAY. PASSING SHRA MAY
AFFECT THE LOCAL TERMINALS FROM TIME TO TIME...CAUSING BRIEF MVFR
CONDS AS THE SHOWERS PASS BY. WINDS WILL BE MAINLY FROM THE EAST
AT AROUND 15 KTS WITH POSSIBLE GUSTS. TSRA DEVELOPING OVER WESTERN
PR AFTER 19/17Z MAY CAUSE VCTS AT TJMZ.

&&

.MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR THE ATLANTIC WATERS TODAY WITH
THE CARIBBEAN WATERS AND ANEGADA PASSAGE OBSERVING SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY CONDITIONS STARTING TONIGHT. COASTAL WINDS EXPECTED TO BE
UP TO 20 KNOTS TODAY AND FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS...LIKELY
STRENGTHENING SLIGHTLY EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 87 76 86 75 / 40 40 40 20
STT 87 77 87 78 / 50 40 40 30

Deleted

Posts: 0

Puerto Rico Weather Nov 20, 2014 4:10:21 GMT -6

Quote

Post by Deleted on Nov 20, 2014 4:10:21 GMT -6

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
504 AM AST THU NOV 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...UPPER LEVEL LOW EAST OF THE LEEWARDS WILL GRADUALLY
FILL AS IT MOVES TO THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN BY FRIDAY. MID-LEVEL INVERTED
TROUGH WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA FROM THE EAST FRI NIGHT. STRONG
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC IS EXPECTED TO MAINTAIN
TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT WITH BREEZY CONDITIONS SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY.

&&

.DISCUSSION...ONCE AGAIN PASSING SHOWERS WERE OBSERVED ACROSS THE
LOCAL WATERS...USVI...AND EASTERN PR OVERNIGHT. THESE SHOWERS
ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN OVER THE AREA AT LEAST THROUGH THE MORNING
HOURS. IN THE AFTERNOON...SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED
TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE WESTERN SECTIONS OF PR.

MOISTURE IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE GRADUALLY TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY.
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES IS EXPECTED TO REACH 2 INCHES BY FRIDAY
AFTERNOON ACROSS THE USVI AND THEN EASTERN PR SHOULD SEE THE 2
INCHES OF PRECIPITABLE WATER BY MIDNIGHT FRIDAY NIGHT INTO
SATURDAY MORNING. FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE THAT IT IS NOT UNTIL
SATURDAY THAT THE MOISTURE COLUMN GETS PAST THE 500 MB...KEEPING
MOST OF THE MOISTURE IN THE LOWER LEVELS THROUGH FRIDAY. THIS
HOWEVER DOES NOT MEAN THAT IT WILL BE DRY...THE MOISTURE ADVECTION
MAY CAUSE THE NUMBER OF PASSING SHOWERS TO INCREASE GRADUALLY ON
FRIDAY AND THEN FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY. HOWEVER THEN ON
SATURDAY THERE SHOULD BE ENOUGH MOISTURE TO CAUSE MORE RAINFALL
THROUGH THE DAY ACROSS THE LOCAL ISLANDS WITH SOME ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS.

RELATIVE DRYING AND BREEZY CONDITIONS ARE STILL SUGGESTED BY THE
GLOBAL MODELS WITH PATCHES OF MOISTURE PASSING ACROSS THE LOCAL
AREA. THERE IS ALSO AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE THAT IS EXPECTED TO
BUILD ON SUNDAY...WHICH WILL CONTRIBUTE TO UPPER LEVEL CONVERGENCE
AND THEREFORE LESSEN THE CHANCES OF SIGNIFICANT SHOWERS TO DEVELOP
FOR THE FIRST FEW DAYS OF THE UPCOMING WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...MOSTLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED...HOWEVER BRIEF PASSING
SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE TO AFFECT THE LEEWARD AND USVI TERMINALS AS
WELL AS JSJ THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. SOME OF THESE SHOWERS MAY
CAUSE BRIEF PERIODS OF MVFR CONDS. AFT 20/17Z SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM
DEVELOPMENT EXPECTED ACROSS WESTERN PUERTO RICO..AFFECTING JMZ THROUGH
ABOUT 20/22Z. EASTERLY WINDS 15-25 KNOTS WITH HIGHER GUSTS.

&&

.MARINE...WINDS 15-20 KT THROUGH MIDDAY SAT THEN STRENGTHENING
20-25 KT SAT AFTERNOON AND PERSISTING THROUGH TUE EVENING. SEAS
5-7 FT THROUGH FRI THEN BUILDING 6-8 FT SAT THROUGH TUE.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 86 75 86 74 / 40 60 70 70
STT 87 77 87 77 / 40 80 80 50

Deleted

Posts: 0

Puerto Rico Weather Nov 20, 2014 13:11:44 GMT -6

Quote

Post by Deleted on Nov 20, 2014 13:11:44 GMT -6

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
258 PM AST THU NOV 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...A TUTT LOW OVER GUADELOUPE WILL WEAKEN OVER THE
LEEWARD ISLANDS TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL
CONTINUE OVER THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN UNTIL LATE NEXT WEEK.

AT MID LEVELS...LOW PRESSURE IN THE SOUTHEAST CARIBBEAN WILL
WEAKEN WHILE HIGH PRESSURE IN THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC SOUTH OF 30
DEGREES NORTH MOVES TO THE SOUTHERN BAHAMAS. THAT HIGH WILL MOVE
NORTHEAST AND A TUTT LOW WILL FORM SOUTH OF IT FORMING A REX LOW
ON WEDNESDAY OF NEXT WEEK. MOISTURE AT MID LEVELS WILL INCREASE
FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY...BUT DIMINISH RAPIDLY ON SUNDAY AND
REMAIN LIMITED THEREAFTER.

AT LOWER LEVELS...FADING HIGH PRESSURE IN THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC
WILL BE REPLACED BY ANOTHER HIGH MOVING OFF THE EAST COAST OF THE
UNITED STATES ON SATURDAY. FRESH TRADE WINDS WILL CONTINUE.
MOISTURE WILL INCREASE THROUGH SATURDAY AND DIMINISH CONSIDERABLY
ON SUNDAY AND MONDAY.

&&

.DISCUSSION...TRADE WIND FLOW CARRIED MANY MODERATE TO HEAVY
SHOWERS ACROSS PUERTO RICO FROM THE CARIBBEAN LEAVING LIGHT
AMOUNTS OVER MOST AREAS. A FEW PLACES IN EAST CENTRAL PUERTO RICO
RECEIVED BETWEEN 1 AND 2 INCHES OF RAIN. A SLIGHTLY DRIER AIR MASS
WILL PASS THROUGH THIS EVENING BUT SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE
AGAIN LATER TONIGHT AND TOMORROW MORNING. AM USING A SLIGHTLY
MODIFIED NAM5 MODEL POPS AS THIS WORKED OUT FAIRLY WELL OVER
PUERTO RICO...BUT PROVED A LITTLE TOO WET FOR THE U.S. VIRGIN
ISLANDS WHERE VERY LIGHT AMOUNTS FELL. SHOWERS SHOULD BEGIN TO
INCREASE FRIDAY AND PEAK FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY AS MOISTURE
RISES TO NEARLY 2 INCHES SATURDAY AFTERNOON. ALTHOUGH
THUNDERSTORMS CANNOT BE RULED OUT THEY WILL BE ISOLATED. DRIER
AIR MOVES IN ON SUNDAY AND THIS SHOULD PROVE TO BE A PRETTY NICE
DAY. PATCHES OF MOISTURE WILL BRING SIMILAR SHOWERS IN TRADE WINDS
MUCH OF THE REST OF NEXT WEEK. FLOODING IS NOT ANTICIPATED DURING
THE NEXT 10 DAYS.

&&

.AVIATION...MOSTLY VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH AT
LEAST THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. AN INCREASE IN SHRA/TSRA
ACTIVITY ACROSS THE LEEWARD ISLANDS SHOULD BEGIN AROUND 21/06Z
SPREADING THROUGH THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS AND EASTERN PR THE REST OF
TOMORROW. THIS ACTIVITY MAY CAUSE BRIEF PERIODS OF MVFR CONDS.
BREEZY TRADE WINDS WILL CONTINUE AT 15-20 KNOTS WITH HIGHER GUSTS.
EXCEPT FOR LAND BREEZE VARIATIONS OVER PR OVERNIGHT.

&&

.MARINE...SEAS WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE SLIGHTLY AFTER
TONIGHT...BUT SEAS OF 7 TO 8 FEET SHOULD BE LIMITED TO THE
ATLANTIC...ANEGADA PASSAGE AND SOUTHERN LOCAL CARIBBEAN WATERS.
IMPROVEMENT MAY NOT COME UNTIL LATE NEXT WEEK.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 75 86 75 86 / 60 90 90 90
STT 77 88 77 87 / 70 70 70 70

Deleted

Posts: 0

Puerto Rico Weather Nov 21, 2014 4:05:57 GMT -6

Quote

Post by Deleted on Nov 21, 2014 4:05:57 GMT -6

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
530 AM AST FRI NOV 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...RETROGRESSING MID TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH ACROSS THE
FAR EASTERN CARIBBEAN AND INTO THE TROPICAL ATLANTIC WILL REACH
THE LOCAL ISLANDS LATE TONIGHT AND EARLY SATURDAY AS SLOWLY
WEAKENS. THIS WILL RESULT IN GOOD MOISTURE ADVECTION WITH PERIODS
OF SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE THIS EVENING
THROUGH EARLY SATURDAY AFTERNOON. FAIR WEATHER IS THEN EXPECTED
TO PREVAIL LATE SATURDAY AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK AS RIDGE ALOFT
BUILDS ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. AT LOWER LEVELS...HIGH PRESSURE
OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC WILL MAINTAIN FRESH TRADE WINDS THROUGH
THE END OF THE WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...MOISTURE ADVECTION IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE LOCAL
ISLANDS AS SOON AS EARLY THIS AFTERNOON AND INTO THE EVENING
HOURS AS A MID TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WITH ASSOCIATED AREA OF
LOW PRESSURE MOVES WESTWARD ACROSS THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN.
ALTHOUGH LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE INDICATED BEST DYNAMICS REMAINING
OVER THE WATERS...SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE
STILL EXPECTED TONIGHT THROUGH EARLY SATURDAY AFTERNOON. URBAN
FLOODING LIKELY...WITH FLASH FLOODING OF SMALL STREAMS AND RIVERS
POSSIBLE ACROSS THE EASTERN THIRD OF PR WHERE THE AFOREMENTIONED
FRESH TRADE WIND FLOW WILL RESULT IN OROGRAPHIC ENHANCEMENT.

THEREFORE...CONTINUE TO EXPECT TRADE WIND SHOWERS ACROSS WINDWARD
AREAS FROM TIME TO TIME THIS MORNING AND EARLY IN THE AFTERNOON
WITH SOME SHALLOW AFTERNOON CONVECTION OVER WESTERN PUERTO RICO.
BY THE LATE AFTERNOON HOURS...FREQUENCY OF SHOWERS WILL INCREASE
ACROSS LOCAL WATERS...THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS AS WELL AS THE
EASTERN THIRD OF PUERTO RICO. THESE SHOWERS WILL BE FAST MOVERS
UNDER A STEERING FLOW NEAR 12 KNOTS...BUT ANY PROLONGED PERIOD OF
MODERATE TO HEAVY RAINFALL...ENHANCED BY LOCAL EFFECTS ACROSS E
PR...MAY RESULT IN RAPID RISES ALONG RIVERS AND SMALL STREAMS
WITH URBAN FLOODING LIKELY.

RIDGE ALOFT WILL BUILD ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA SUNDAY AND EARLY
NEXT WEEK WITH MOISTURE EROSION EXPECTED AT MID LEVELS. AT LOWER
LEVELS...MOISTURE SHOULD REMAIN NEAR OR BELOW NORMAL VALUES.
THEREFORE...SUNDAY THROUGH MUCH OF THE NEXT WORK WEEK...EXPECT A
GENERALLY FAIR AND MAINLY STABLE WEATHER PATTERN EACH DAY WITH
TRADE WIND SHOWERS ACROSS WINDWARD AREAS FOLLOWED BY SHALLOW
AFTERNOON SHOWERS ACROSS WEST PR...IF ANY.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED ACROSS PR AND USVI TAF SITE
OVERNIGHT. DETERIORATING WX CONDS AT TNCM/TKPK OVERNIGHT WITH
POSSIBLE MVFR AND IFR CONDS. INCREASING SHRA/TSRA ACTIVITY ACROSS
THE LEEWARD ISLANDS SPREADING THROUGH THE USVI AND EASTERN PR THIS
MORNING INTENSIFYING AFTER 21/18Z WITH VCTS/VCSH LIKELY FOR MOST
OF THE LOCAL TERMINALS AND POSSIBLY AFFECTING THE TERMINALS FOR
BRIEF PERIODS. THIS ACTIVITY MAY CAUSE BRIEF PERIODS OF MVFR
CONDS. SFC WINDS 10 TO 20 KTS WITH HIGHER GUSTS.

&&

.MARINE...SEAS REMAIN 5-7 FT AND WINDS 15-20 KT THROUGH THE DAY.
WINDS STRENGTHEN SAT THROUGH MON NEAR 22 KNOTS WITH SEAS BUILDING
6-8 FT.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...RETROGRESSING MID TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH ACROSS THE
FAR EASTERN CARIBBEAN AND INTO THE TROPICAL ATLANTIC WILL REACH
THE LOCAL ISLANDS LATER TODAY AND EARLY SATURDAY AS SLOWLY
WEAKENS. THIS WILL RESULT IN GOOD MOISTURE ADVECTION WITH PERIODS
OF SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE TONIGHT THROUGH
EARLY SATURDAY AFTERNOON.

PROLONGED PERIODS OF MODERATE TO HEAVY RAINFALL ENHANCED BY LOCAL
EFFECTS ACROSS THE EASTERN THIRD OF PUERTO RICO MAY RESULT IN
RAPID RISES ON SMALL STREAMS AND RIVERS AS WELL AS INCREASE THE
POTENTIAL FOR MUDSLIDES IN AREAS OF STEEP TERRAIN WITH URBAN
FLOODING LIKELY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 86 78 85 77 / 90 90 90 40
STT 87 74 87 76 / 70 70 70 40

Deleted

Posts: 0

Puerto Rico Weather Nov 21, 2014 16:54:18 GMT -6

Quote

Post by Deleted on Nov 21, 2014 16:54:18 GMT -6

FLOOD WATCH
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
603 PM AST FRI NOV 21 2014

PRZ001>004-221015-
/O.NEW.TJSJ.FF.A.0007.141122T0300Z-141122T1500Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
SAN JUAN AND VICINITY-NORTHEAST-SOUTHEAST-EASTERN INTERIOR-
INCLUDING THE MUNICIPALITIES AND/OR ISLANDS OF...SAN JUAN...
CAROLINA...FAJARDO...HUMACAO...GUAYAMA...ARROYO...YABUCOA...
SALINAS...COCO...CAGUAS
603 PM AST FRI NOV 21 2014

...FLASH FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT FROM 11 PM AST THIS EVENING THROUGH
SATURDAY MORNING...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN SAN JUAN HAS ISSUED A

* FLASH FLOOD WATCH FOR EASTERN PUERTO RICO.

* FROM 11 PM AST THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING

* A MID-LEVEL TROUGH AND A LOW-LEVEL JET CURRENTLY LOCATED OVER
THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN SEA WILL MOVE WESTWARD NEXT 24 HOURS
TRANSPORTING HIGH MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY THAT WILL BE FOCUSED
OVER THE EASTERN THIRD OF PUERTO RICO ON STRONG EAST WINDS. A
6-HOUR PERIOD OF HEAVY RAINFALL APPEARS LIKELY OVERNIGHT WITH
RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 2 TO 5 INCHES EXPECTED WHICH COULD
FALL IN A VERY SHORT PERIOD OF TIME. HEAVIER TOTALS OF 3 TO 7
INCHES ARE POSSIBLE IN AREAS OF STRONG TOPOGRAPHICAL FORCING
SUCH AS EL YUNQUE NATIONAL FOREST.

* THESE RAINFALL AMOUNTS COULD RESULT IN FLASH FLOODING OF SMALL
STREAMS AND CREEKS. RAINFALL IS EXPECTED TO BEGIN TAPERING OFF
AFTER 11 AM SATURDAY.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A FLASH FLOOD WATCH MEANS THAT CONDITIONS ARE FAVORABLE FOR HEAVY
RAIN ACROSS THE WATCH AREA...WHICH MAY LEAD TO FLOODING. IF YOU
ARE IN THE WATCH AREA...CHECK YOUR PREPAREDNESS REQUIREMENTS...
ESPECIALLY IF YOU HAVE INTERESTS ALONG AREA RIVERS. KEEP
INFORMED...AND BE READY FOR QUICK ACTION IF FLOODING IS OBSERVED
OR IF A FLASH FLOOD WARNING IS ISSUED.

PEOPLE IN THE WATCH AREA SHOULD CONTINUE TO BE AWARE OF THE
POSSIBILITY FOR HEAVY RAINFALL. AVOID LOW LYING AREAS...AND BE
CAREFUL WHEN APPROACHING HIGHWAY DIPS AND UNDERPASSES. THE
HEAVY RAIN COULD ALSO CAUSE MUDSLIDES IN AREAS OF STEEP TERRAIN.

STAY TUNED TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO...LOCAL TV...RADIO OR YOUR
CABLE TELEVISION PROVIDER FOR LATER STATEMENTS AND POSSIBLE
WARNINGS.

THIS PRODUCT...ALONG WITH OTHER WEATHER...HYDROLOGICAL AND
CLIMATE INFORMATION...IS AVAILABLE ON THE WEB AT
HTTP://WWW.SRH.NOAA.GOV/SJU OR AT HTTP://WEATHER.GOV.

&&

$$

Deleted

Posts: 0

Puerto Rico Weather Nov 22, 2014 4:23:37 GMT -6

Quote

Post by Deleted on Nov 22, 2014 4:23:37 GMT -6

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
436 AM AST SAT NOV 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...WX CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE LATER TODAY AS RETROGRESSING
MID TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA WEAKENS. A GENERALLY
FAIR AND MAINLY STABLE WEATHER PATTERN IS THEN EXPECTED TO PREVAIL
SUNDAY THROUGH MUCH OF THE NEXT WORKWEEK AS RIDGE ALOFT BUILDS ACROSS
THE FORECAST AREA. MIGRATORY HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEMS OVER THE CENTRAL
ATLANTIC WILL CONTINUE TO MAINTAIN FRESH TRADE WINDS DURING THE
NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.

&&

.DISCUSSION...MOISTURE ADVECTION WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE LOCAL ISLANDS
AS WEAKENING MID TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WITH ASSOCIATED AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE MOVES WESTWARD ACROSS THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN TODAY. THEREFORE...
CONTINUE TO EXPECT FREQUENT TRADE WIND SHOWERS ACROSS THE U.S. VIRGIN
ISLANDS AND THE EASTERN HALF OF PUERTO RICO THIS MORNING...WITH SOME
OF THESE SHOWERS REACHING WESTERN PUERTO RICO BY THE EARLY AFTERNOON
HOURS. THESE SHOWERS WILL BE FAST MOVERS UNDER A STEERING FLOW NEAR
12 KNOTS...WITH THE HEAVIEST SHOWERS FOCUSED ACROSS EASTERN PUERTO
RICO. BUT...ANY PROLONGED PERIOD OF MODERATE TO HEAVY RAINFALL...
ENHANCED BY OROGRAPHIC EFFECTS...MAY RESULT IN SOME LOCALIZED RAPID
RISES ALONG RIVERS AND SMALL STREAMS WITH URBAN FLOODING LIKELY...
ESPECIALLY ACROSS EASTERN PUERTO RICO. THEREFORE A FLASH FLOOD WATCH
REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR EASTERN PUERTO RICO UNTIL 11 AM AST.

RIDGE ALOFT WILL BUILD ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA SUNDAY AND EARLY NEXT
WEEK WITH MOISTURE EROSION EXPECTED AT MID LEVELS. AT LOWER LEVELS...
MOISTURE SHOULD REMAIN NEAR OR BELOW NORMAL VALUES. THEREFORE...SUNDAY
THROUGH MUCH OF THE NEXT WORKWEEK...EXPECT A GENERALLY FAIR AND MAINLY
STABLE WEATHER PATTERN EACH DAY WITH TRADE WIND SHOWERS ACROSS WINDWARD
AREAS FOLLOWED BY SHALLOW AFTERNOON SHOWERS ACROSS WEST PUERTO RICO...
IF ANY.

&&

.AVIATION...NMRS SHRA/ISOLD TSRA CURRENTLY MOVG INTO USVI...EAST AND
NORTH PR. HEAVIEST SHRA HV LWRD CIGS TO 2 KFT...VSBY TO 1SM AND
GUSTS TO 25 KT. MOST WL NOT BE THAT XTRM BUT IFR IS PSBL FOR ALL TAF
SITES TIL LATE AFT XCP PROB TJPS ALG WI OBSCD MTNS. ISOLD/SCT BRF
SHRA RTN TONITE XCP DRY AT TJPS/TJMZ/TJBQ. WINDS SFC-FL150 E 15-20
KT INCR TO 18-28 KT LATE TDY AND TONITE.

&&

.MARINE...WINDS WILL STRENGTHEN THROUGH TUESDAY. EXPECT WINDS
20-23 KT AND SEAS 6-8 FT. WINDS AND SEAS BEGIN TO SUBSIDE RAPIDLY
ON WEDNESDAY. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES IN EFFECT FOR ALL WATERS
EXCEPT AMZ745.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 84 77 84 76 / 70 20 30 30
STT 87 77 88 77 / 70 40 30 30

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Puerto Rico Weather

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