Puerto Rico Weather

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Puerto Rico Weather Dec 3, 2014 4:39:05 GMT -6

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Post by Deleted on Dec 3, 2014 4:39:05 GMT -6

Good morning. It looks like no widespread rains will occur with the rains that will fall during the next few days but still stay tuned just in case it changes.

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
520 AM AST WED DEC 3 2014

.SYNOPSIS...AT UPPER LEVELS...A RIDGE ACROSS THE U.S. VIRGIN
ISLANDS WILL MOVE EAST TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY. A SHORT WAVE TROUGH
WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA ON FRIDAY. A RIDGE OVER THE CENTRAL
CARIBBEAN ON SATURDAY WILL FLATTEN OUT BEFORE IT MOVES OVER THE
LOCAL AREA ON MONDAY WITH WEST NORTHWEST FLOW THROUGH MUCH OF THE
FOLLOWING WEEK.

AT MID LEVELS...THE RIDGE OVER PUERTO RICO TODAY WILL MOVE
EASTWARD AND A TROUGH WILL CROSS THROUGH THE AREA FROM THE
NORTHWEST EARLY SATURDAY MORNING. NORTHWEST FLOW WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH MONDAY WHILE WEAKENING. A BROAD TROUGH SINKS INTO THE
CENTRAL CARIBBEAN DURING THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK NEXT WEEK.
CONSIDERABLE MID LEVEL MOISTURE WILL BE SEEN THURSDAY NIGHT AND
FRIDAY...OTHERWISE MID LEVELS WILL REMAIN MOSTLY DRY THROUGH NEXT WEEK.

AT LOWER LEVELS...LOW PRESSURE WILL DEEPEN NORTHEAST OF THE LOCAL
AREA TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY...BUT THE LOW WILL EJECT QUICKLY NORTH
DURING THE WEEKEND. THIS WILL KEEP MOIST NORTHEASTERLY LOW LEVEL
FLOW OVER THE AREA UNTIL EARLY NEXT WEEK. A STREAM OF STRONG HIGH
PRESSURES MOVING THROUGH THE NORTHERN ATLANTIC WILL MAINTAIN
MODERATE TO FRESH TRADE WINDS OVER THE LOCAL AREA.

&&

.DISCUSSION...MANY TINY SHOWERS IN THE TRADE WINDS MOVING ACROSS
THE AREA KEPT THE NORTHEAST COAST OF PUERTO RICO AND THOSE IN THE
LOCAL WATERS UPSTREAM FROM THE ISLANDS DAMP. AMOUNTS SEEN
OVERNIGHT WERE GENERALLY BELOW FIVE HUNDREDTHS OF AN INCH. MODELS
SHOW NORTHEAST FLOW OVER THE AREA CONTINUING WITH THE SAME MOIST
FLOW AS LOW PRESSURE STRENGTHENS TO THE NORTHEAST LEAVING A TROUGH
THAT EXTENDS NORTHWARD FROM THE EXTREME WESTERN PORTION OF THE
TROPICAL ATLANTIC OCEAN. MOISTURE INCREASES AS THE MID LAYERS
BECOME ALMOST SATURATED THURSDAY AND FRIDAY INCREASING THE
LIKELIHOOD OF SHOWERS. MOISTURE...HOWEVER...IS WEAKER BETWEEN 5
AND 10 KFT AND RAINFALL AMOUNTS...THOUGH INCREASING FROM TUESDAY
AND TODAY...WILL BE MODEST. ALTHOUGH THE MID AND UPPER LAYERS DRY
ON SATURDAY AND REMAIN DRY THROUGH MUCH OF NEXT WEEK...SOME LIGHT
SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE IN THE TRADE WIND FLOW THROUGH THE REST OF
NEXT WEEK AS MOISTURE BELOW 5 TO 6 KFT WILL CONTINUE TO RUN RICH.
DEEPER MOISTURE PORTRAYED IN THE GFS MODEL RUNS OVER THE PREVIOUS
WEEKEND FOR THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY OF THIS WEEK NOW APPEARS TO BE
SHUNTED TO THE SOUTH AS COOLER AND DRIER AIR MOVES OVER THE AREA.
AND THIS SOLUTION APPEARS MORE LIKELY AT THIS TIME. THIS WILL ALSO
BRING SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPERATURES TO ALL BUT THE SOUTH COAST OF
PUERTO RICO SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY AS REFLECTED IN LOWER 1000-850MB
THICKNESS LEVELS SHOWN BY BOTH THE GFS AND THE ECMWF.

&&

.AVIATION...MAINLY VFR CONDS EXPECTED THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD.
TRADE WIND SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE TO AFFECT THE LEEWARD ISLANDS FROM
TIME TO TIME AS WELL AS THE THE USVI AND EASTERN PR
TERMINALS...CREATING BRIEF MVFR CIGS AND VCSH. ALSO...IN THE
AFTERNOON...MOUNTAIN OBSCURATIONS AND SHRA/VCSH POSSIBLE AT
TJMZ/TJPS. WINDS WILL CONTINUE FM THE EAST-NORTHEAST AT 10-20 KT
WITH HIGHER GUSTS AND SEA BREEZE VARIATIONS AFT 03/14Z.

&&

.MARINE...NORTHEAST SWELLS WILL CONTINUE TO SUBSIDE VERY SLOWLY
NOW THROUGH MONDAY...BUT SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES SHOULD ALL BE DOWN
BY THURSDAY EVENING. SEAS OF 7 FEET WILL BE LIMITED TO THE
NORTHERN LOCAL ATLANTIC WATERS BY TONIGHT. SEAS AT RINCON AND THE
NEAR SHORE SAN JUAN BUOY HAVE FALLEN BELOW 6 FEET...BUT MAY RETURN
BRIEFLY TO 7 FEET TODAY. CONDITIONS APPEAR TO BE JUST BELOW
CRITERIA NECESSARY FOR A HIGH SURF ADVISORY THOUGH A FEW BREAKERS
IN FAVORED PLACES MAY EXCEED 10 FEET. THE RISK OF RIP CURRENTS
WILL BE MODERATE TO HIGH IN MOST NORTH FACING BEACHES.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 84 74 83 75 / 50 50 50 60
STT 84 76 85 75 / 40 40 50 60

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Puerto Rico Weather Dec 4, 2014 4:13:39 GMT -6

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Post by Deleted on Dec 4, 2014 4:13:39 GMT -6

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
501 AM AST THU DEC 4 2014

.SYNOPSIS...AT MID AND UPPER LEVELS...AS THE RIDGE OF PREVIOUS
DAYS MOVES OVER THE LEEWARD ISLANDS A TROUGH AND ACCOMPANYING
JET STREAM WILL APPROACH THE AREA FOR A PASSAGE ON FRIDAY NIGHT.
RIPPLES IN THE WEST NORTHWEST FLOW THAT FOLLOWS WILL THEN CONTINUE
THROUGH MUCH OF NEXT WEEK. MID AND UPPER LEVELS ARE BECOMING MORE
MOIST...BUT WILL DRY OUT BEGINNING ON SATURDAY. THESE LEVELS
REMAIN DRY THROUGH NEXT WEEK.

AT LOWER LEVELS...A TROUGH FORMING ALONG 60 WEST IN THE WESTERN
TROPICAL ATLANTIC WILL EXTEND TO THE NORTH ON FRIDAY AND SATURDAY AND
FORM A DEEPENING LOW. THIS WILL CAUSE FLOW TO BECOME MORE
NORTHERLY...DISRUPTING THE TRADE WINDS AND BRING DOWN COOLER AIR
FROM THE NORTH. SHALLOW MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE
FORECAST PERIOD.

&&

.DISCUSSION...SHOWERS FORMED IN THE WAKE AROUND PUERTO RICO AND
THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS WITH SOME SHOWERS COMING IN OVER EASTERN
PUERTO RICO. PRECIPITABLE WATER FROM LAST NIGHT`S 00Z SOUNDING
CAME IN AT 1.93 INCHES AND WAS PRESENT THROUGH 9 KFT. MOISTURE IS
FORECAST TO CONTINUE THROUGH FRIDAY MAKING SHOWERS LIKELY OVER
MOST OF PUERTO RICO AND KEEPING AT LEAST A CHANCE OF SHOWERS OVER
THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS THROUGH FRIDAY. AN APPROACHING TROUGH WILL
ALSO KEEP A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR A THUNDERSTORM IN THE FORECAST.
SINCE SHALLOW MOISTURE CONTINUES THROUGH MUCH OF THE NEXT
WEEK...EVEN AFTER DEEPER MOISTURE LEAVES THE AREA...BRIEF PASSING
SHOWERS...AS IS SO TYPICAL OF DECEMBER IN PUERTO RICO AND THE U.S.
VIRGIN ISLANDS...WILL CONTINUE IN THEIR TYPICAL DIURNAL PATTERN OF
EARLY MORNING SHOWERS ON THE WINDWARD COASTS AND AFTERNOON SHOWERS
WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE OF A THUNDERSTORM IN THE WESTERN INTERIOR.
WINDS WILL DIMINISH IN THE LOWEST 5000 FEET OF THE ATMOSPHERE
THROUGH SUNDAY AS THE DEEPENING LOW PRESSURE TO OUR NORTH
NORTHEAST ALLOWS PRESSURE GRADIENTS IN PLACE FROM THE PERSISTENT
HIGH PRESSURE TO RELAX. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR SOMEWHAT HIGHER RAIN
AMOUNTS. THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS WILL PROVIDE OPPORTUNITY FOR ENOUGH
RAIN TO FALL TO JUSTIFY URBAN AND SMALL STREAM FLOODING BUT THESE
CONDITIONS WILL NOT BE WIDESPREAD ACROSS THE AREA AND WILL LIKELY
NOT OCCUR IN THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS. COOL AIR ADVECTION IS
OCCURRING IN THE LOWEST 10 KFT AND IS EXPECTED TO USHER IN SLIGHTLY
COOLER TEMPERATURES OVER THE WEEKEND AND INTO NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...MAINLY VFR CONDS EXPECTED THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD.
TRADE WIND SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE IN AND AROUND THE LEEWARD
ISLANDS...USVI AND EASTERN PR TERMINALS. CREATING BRIEF MVFR CIGS
AND VCSH. FOLLOWED BY AFTERNOON CONVECTION OVER THE INTERIOR AND SW
PR MOUNTAIN CREATING MOUNTAIN OBSCURATION AND SHRA/TSRA POSSIBLE AT
TJMZ/TJPS. WINDS WILL CONTINUE FM THE EAST-NORTHEAST AT 10-15 KT
WITH HIGHER GUSTS AND SEA BREEZE VARIATIONS AFT 04/14Z.

&&

.MARINE...SWELL IS SLOWLY DIMINISHING AND SEAS WILL CONTINUE TO
SUBSIDE AS WINDS WEAKEN EVEN MORE OVER THE WEEKEND. SEAS WILL FALL
ONLY TO AROUND 6 FEET IN THE OUTER ATLANTIC WATERS THROUGH
THURSDAY. SEAS MAY ALSO RISE AGAIN IF THE LOW PRESSURE TO DEVELOP TO
THE NORTH NORTHEAST BECOMES ANY STRONGER THAN THE CURRENT MODEL
RUNS ARE SUGGESTING. HENCE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES IN THE NORTHERN
OUTER ATLANTIC WATERS CANNOT BE RULED OUT EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 84 76 83 76 / 70 60 60 50
STT 86 76 85 76 / 50 60 50 50

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Puerto Rico Weather Dec 4, 2014 14:43:14 GMT -6

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Post by Deleted on Dec 4, 2014 14:43:14 GMT -6

FLOOD ADVISORY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
359 PM AST THU DEC 4 2014

PRC043-059-075-111-113-133-149-042300-
/O.NEW.TJSJ.FA.Y.0282.141204T1959Z-141204T2300Z/
/00000.N.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
COAMO PR-GUAYANILLA PR-JUANA DIAZ PR-PENUELAS PR-PONCE PR-
SANTA ISABEL PR-VILLALBA PR-
359 PM AST THU DEC 4 2014

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN SAN JUAN HAS ISSUED AN

* URBAN AND SMALL STREAM FLOOD ADVISORY
FOR THE FOLLOWING MUNICIPALITIES...

IN PUERTO RICO
COAMO...GUAYANILLA...JUANA DIAZ...PENUELAS...PONCE...SANTA
ISABEL AND VILLALBA

* UNTIL 700 PM AST

* AT 359 PM AST...DOPPLER RADAR ESTIMATED VERY HEAVY RAIN IN THE
ADVISORY AREA DURING THE LAST HOUR. EXCESSIVE RUNOFF FROM HEAVY
RAINFALL WILL CAUSE ELEVATED LEVELS ON SMALL CREEKS AND
STREAMS...AND PONDING OF WATER IN URBAN AREAS...HIGHWAYS...STREETS
AND UNDERPASSES AS WELL AS OTHER POOR DRAINAGE AREAS AND LOW LYING
SPOTS.

MOST FLOOD DEATHS OCCUR IN AUTOMOBILES. NEVER DRIVE YOUR VEHICLE
INTO AREAS WHERE THE WATER COVERS THE ROADWAY. FLOOD WATERS ARE
USUALLY DEEPER THAN THEY APPEAR. JUST ONE FOOT OF FLOWING WATER IS
POWERFUL ENOUGH TO SWEEP VEHICLES OFF THE ROAD. WHEN ENCOUNTERING
FLOODED ROADS MAKE THE SMART CHOICE...TURN AROUND...DONT DROWN.

&&

LAT...LON 1797 6663 1796 6665 1800 6682 1811 6680
1812 6643 1798 6636 1797 6646 1798 6646
1798 6650 1796 6654 1796 6661

$$

CASTRO

FLOOD ADVISORY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
338 PM AST THU DEC 4 2014

PRC011-055-079-083-093-097-121-125-153-042230-
/O.NEW.TJSJ.FA.Y.0281.141204T1938Z-141204T2230Z/
/00000.N.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
ANASCO PR-GUANICA PR-MAYAGUEZ PR-LAJAS PR-MARICAO PR-SABANA GRANDE
PR-SAN GERMAN PR-YAUCO PR-LAS MARIAS PR-
338 PM AST THU DEC 4 2014

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN SAN JUAN HAS ISSUED AN

* URBAN AND SMALL STREAM FLOOD ADVISORY
FOR THE FOLLOWING MUNICIPALITIES...

IN PUERTO RICO
ANASCO...GUANICA...MAYAGUEZ...LAJAS...MARICAO...SABANA GRANDE...
SAN GERMAN...YAUCO AND LAS MARIAS

* UNTIL 630 PM AST

* AT 337 PM AST...DOPPLER RADAR ESTIMATED VERY HEAVY RAIN IN THE
ADVISORY AREA DURING THE LAST HOUR. EXCESSIVE RUNOFF FROM HEAVY
RAINFALL WILL CAUSE ELEVATED LEVELS ON SMALL CREEKS AND
STREAMS...AND PONDING OF WATER IN URBAN AREAS...HIGHWAYS...STREETS
AND UNDERPASSES AS WELL AS OTHER POOR DRAINAGE AREAS AND LOW LYING
SPOTS.

MOST FLOOD DEATHS OCCUR IN AUTOMOBILES. NEVER DRIVE YOUR VEHICLE INTO
AREAS WHERE THE WATER COVERS THE ROADWAY. FLOOD WATERS ARE USUALLY
DEEPER THAN THEY APPEAR. JUST ONE FOOT OF FLOWING WATER IS POWERFUL
ENOUGH TO SWEEP VEHICLES OFF THE ROAD. WHEN ENCOUNTERING FLOODED
ROADS MAKE THE SMART CHOICE...TURN AROUND...DONT DROWN.

&&

LAT...LON 1799 6711 1813 6707 1825 6717 1828 6714
1823 6698 1815 6683 1801 6684 1798 6708

$$

CASTRO

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Puerto Rico Weather Dec 4, 2014 15:35:18 GMT -6

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Post by Deleted on Dec 4, 2014 15:35:18 GMT -6

FLOOD ADVISORY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
500 PM AST THU DEC 4 2014

PRC039-047-101-050000-
/O.NEW.TJSJ.FA.Y.0283.141204T2100Z-141205T0000Z/
/00000.N.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
CIALES PR-COROZAL PR-MOROVIS PR-
500 PM AST THU DEC 4 2014

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN SAN JUAN HAS ISSUED AN

* URBAN AND SMALL STREAM FLOOD ADVISORY FOR RAPID RIVER RISES IN
FOR THE FOLLOWING MUNICIPALITIES...

IN PUERTO RICO
CIALES...COROZAL AND MOROVIS

* UNTIL 800 PM AST

* AT 500 PM AST...DOPPLER RADAR ESTIMATED VERY HEAVY RAIN IN THE
ADVISORY AREA DURING THE LAST HOUR. EXCESSIVE RUNOFF FROM HEAVY
RAINFALL WILL CAUSE ELEVATED LEVELS ON SMALL CREEKS AND
STREAMS...AND PONDING OF WATER IN URBAN AREAS...HIGHWAYS...STREETS
AND UNDERPASSES AS WELL AS OTHER POOR DRAINAGE AREAS AND LOW LYING
SPOTS.

MOST FLOOD DEATHS OCCUR IN AUTOMOBILES. NEVER DRIVE YOUR VEHICLE INTO
AREAS WHERE THE WATER COVERS THE ROADWAY. FLOOD WATERS ARE USUALLY
DEEPER THAN THEY APPEAR. JUST ONE FOOT OF FLOWING WATER IS POWERFUL
ENOUGH TO SWEEP VEHICLES OFF THE ROAD. WHEN ENCOUNTERING FLOODED
ROADS MAKE THE SMART CHOICE...TURN AROUND...DONT DROWN.

&&

LAT...LON 1836 6639 1835 6639 1833 6636 1836 6635
1836 6630 1828 6630 1826 6636 1828 6639
1825 6646 1825 6650 1821 6653 1834 6655
1837 6649

$$

CASTRO

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Puerto Rico Weather Dec 5, 2014 4:27:23 GMT -6

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Post by Deleted on Dec 5, 2014 4:27:23 GMT -6

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
404 AM AST FRI DEC 5 2014

.SYNOPSIS...AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH NORTH AND WEST OF THE REGION
WILL MAINTAIN RELATIVELY UNSTABLE WEATHER CONDITIONS ACROSS THE
LOCAL ISLANDS TODAY. THE TROUGH WILL MOVE RAPIDLY TO THE EAST OF
THE REGION TONIGHT AND SATURDAY IN AN UNFAVORABLE POSITION FOR
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. THUS...WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE
TONIGHT AND DURING THE REST OF THE WEEKEND AS A SUBSIDENCE PATTERN
ESTABLISHES ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA IN RESPONSE TO THE
AMPLIFICATION OF THE UPPER TROUGH EAST OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS.

&&

.DISCUSSION...DURING THE WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT WEEK...A SUBSIDENCE
PATTERN WILL ESTABLISH ACROSS THE NORTHEAST CARIBBEAN REGION AS
THE UPPER TROUGH MOVE EASTWARD INTO THE TROPICAL ATLANTIC. THE
UPPER TROUGH IS FORECAST TO AMPLIFY EAST OF THE LEEWARD
ISLANDS...RESULTING IN UPPER LEVEL CONVERGENCE AND SUBSIDENCE
PATTERN ACROSS PUERTO RICO AND USVI. AS A RESULT...MID-UPPER LEVEL
MOISTURE WILL DIMINISH SIGNIFICANTLY...LIMITING THE DEEP
CONVECTION ACROSS THE ISLANDS.

A NORTHERLY WIND FLOW WILL ESTABLISH ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT. THIS
NORTHERLY FLOW WILL FAVOR LIGHT SHOWERS ACROSS THE NORTHERN AND
EASTERN SECTIONS OF PUERTO RICO AT NIGHT AND EARLY IN THE MORNING.
BECAUSE MOISTURE WILL BE CONFINED IN THE LOWER ATMOSPHERE...BELOW
800 MB...NO SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS ARE EXPECTED OVER THE
WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...A LOW PRES IS EXPECTED TO DVLP N OF PR CAUSING WINDS TO
WEAKEN AND BCM NLY. MOIST AIR BRINGING SHRA TO AREA FOR BRIEF MVFR
CIGS TNCM AND TKPK AND MTN OBSCURATIONS IN PR. CLRG EXPECTED AFT
05/18Z WITH ISOLD SHRA N COAST PR AND OVER WATERS. LLVL WINDS NE 5
TO 15 KT BCMG AFT 05/15Z N 5 TO 12 KT. WINDS ABV 16 KFT W INCRG TO
70 TO 80 KT 40 TO 46 KFT.

&&

.MARINE...SMALL CRAFTS SHOULD CONTINUE TO EXERCISE CAUTION ACROSS
MUCH OF THE LOCAL WATERS. BUOYS ACROSS THE NEAR SHORE ATLANTIC
WATERS ARE INDICATING SEAS OF 4-6 FEET. ANOTHER NE PULSE WILL BE
ARRIVING ON SUNDAY BUT IT WILL QUICKLY SUBSIDE THROUGH MONDAY.
WINDS OVER THE WATERS WILL BE MAINLY FROM THE NORTH TO NORTHEAST
BETWEEN 7 TO 15 KNOTS DURING THE OVERNIGHT.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 84 76 83 76 / 40 40 40 40
STT 85 76 85 76 / 40 30 30 30

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Puerto Rico Weather Dec 6, 2014 6:31:47 GMT -6

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Post by Deleted on Dec 6, 2014 6:31:47 GMT -6

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
518 AM AST SAT DEC 6 2014

.SYNOPSIS...AT UPPER LEVELS...AN 85 KNOT JET CROSSED OVER THE AREA
LAST NIGHT AND A WEAK TROUGH WILL FOLLOW IT EARLY THIS MORNING.
NEVERTHELESS LITTLE DYNAMICS ARE SEEN WITH THESE FEATURES. A WEAK
TROUGH WILL ALSO PASS THROUGH THE AREA SUNDAY AFTERNOON. WEST
NORTHWEST FLOW WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MID WEEK AND WINDS WILL PICK
UP AS A SLIGHTLY ANTI CYCLONIC JET MOVES OVER THE AREA FROM THE
SOUTH MID WEEK NEXT WEEK. FLOW WILL TURN SLIGHTLY SOUTHWEST UNDER
THIS JET BY THURSDAY.

AT MID LEVELS...LOW PRESSURE NORTHEAST OF SAN JUAN AT 60 WEST WILL
DEEPEN SLIGHTLY OVER THE WEEKEND BEFORE BEING ABSORBED INTO A LONG
WAVE TROUGH SUNDAY. GRADIENTS WILL WEAKEN IN THE NORTHWEST FLOW
OVER THE AREA AFTER A MID-LATITUDE SHORT WAVE TROUGH PASSES BY ON
MONDAY FOLLOWED BY A SHIFT TO SOUTHWEST FLOW AS A LARGE LOW
ROTATES THROUGH THE NORTHEASTERN UNITED STATES. AFTER WHICH HIGH
PRESSURE WILL DOMINATE THE CARIBBEAN THROUGH THE END OF NEXT WEEK
UNTIL A SECOND LARGE LOW PRESSURE MOVES INTO THE WESTERN ATLANTIC
SATURDAY OF NEXT WEEK. MID LEVELS WILL BE MOSTLY DRY THROUGH THE
NEXT 10 DAYS.

AT LOWER LEVELS...A WEAK INVERTED TROUGH WILL DEEPEN THROUGH
SATURDAY NIGHT BEFORE MOVING NORTHEAST EARLY NEXT WEEK. FLOW
BECOMES EASTERLY NEXT WEEK AS VERY WEAK HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES JUST
NORTH OF THE AREA MID WEEK AND FLOW PERSISTS FROM THE CENTRAL
ATLANTIC.

&&

.DISCUSSION...SMALL SHOWERS PAINTED LIGHT TRAILS OVERNIGHT OF THE
MOST MINIMAL MEASURABLE RAINFALL AMOUNTS IN NORTHERLY FLOW
GENERATED BY THE LOW FORMING 640 MILES NORTHEAST OF PUNTA CANA IN
THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC. SHOWERS COVERED ABOUT 10 TO 20 PERCENT OF
THE NORTHERN QUARTER OF PUERTO RICO AND THE NORTHERN U.S. VIRGIN
ISLANDS. THE GFS CONTINUES TO BE MUCH DRIER THAN PREVIOUS RUNS AND
ALMOST ANY PREVIOUS PERIOD THIS YEAR WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER
VALUES FALLING BELOW 0.90 INCHES ON BOTH MONDAY NIGHT AND EARLY
WEDNESDAY MORNING. ALSO NOTE THAT LITTLE OR NO DIVERGENCE OCCURS
AT THE 250 MB LEVEL AND SOME DOWNWARD MOTION IS ALSO
INDICATED...THEREFORE...HAVE LOWERED POPS OVER MANY AREAS DURING
THIS PERIOD AND DURING THE WEAK RECOVERY OF THURSDAY AND FRIDAY
MORNING. EVEN DURING A SUPPOSEDLY WET PERIOD FORECAST FOR THE
SUNDAY AFTER NEXT THE GFS ONLY HAS PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES
REACHING 1.7 INCHES. IN COMPARISON WITH THE SOUNDERS AND THE LAST
RADIOSONDE AT 06/00Z MODEL VALUES ARE ABOUT .15-.25 INCHES TOO
LOW... BUT EVEN THIS MAY NOT BE ENOUGH TO CREATE MORE THAN A 10 TO
20 PERCENT CHANCE OF SHOWERS OVER THE WEEKEND AND THE FIRST PART
OF NEXT WEEK. WITH THE CURRENT SEVERE DRY BIAS OF THE GFS TOWARD
THE LATTER END OF ITS FORECAST THE LAST SEVERAL MONTHS... AND NO
VALUES EXCEEDING 19 PERCENT IN THE MEXJSJ THIS WEEK I MUST ALSO
NOTE THAT CONFIDENCE OF SO FEW SHOWERS FOR THIS WEEK IN DECEMBER
IS ONLY MEDIUM. HOWEVER EXPECT BETTER SHOWER ACTIVITY LATE NEXT
WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND AS MOISTURE COMES IN FROM THE CENTRAL
ATLANTIC.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. ONLY
-SHRA EMBEDDED ON NORTHERLY FLOW OVER THE ATLANTIC WATERS COULD
REACH PARTS OF THE NORTHERN TERMINALS OF PR AND THE USVI. THE 06/00Z
TJSJ UPPER AIR SOUNDING INDICATED LOW LEVEL N-NW WINDS AT 4-12
KT...BCMG NW-W AT FL150 AND ABOVE WITH 20-30 KT AND HIGHER WINDS.

&&

.MARINE...MULTIPLE VIGOROUS HIGHS AND LOWS TRANSITING THE
ATLANTIC WILL KEEP SEAS FAIRLY AGITATED WITH SWELL GROUPS COMING
IN FROM THE NORTH NORTHWEST AND THE NORTHEAST MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY.
THEREFORE AM KEEPING THE 7 FOOT SEAS IN THE NORTHERN ATLANTIC
WATERS. SPECTRAL MODEL SUGGESTS SEAS UP TO 10 FEET BEGINNING
WEDNESDAY. WILL UPDATE FORECAST WHEN WAVE GENERATION CAN BE
CONFIRMED SINCE THERE IS SOME UNCERTAINTY WITH REGARD TO WIND
STRENGTH IN THE CRITICAL FETCH AREAS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 85 76 83 74 / 20 20 0 10
STT 86 76 84 77 / 20 20 10 10

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Puerto Rico Weather Dec 7, 2014 5:04:03 GMT -6

Quote

Post by Deleted on Dec 7, 2014 5:04:03 GMT -6

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
409 AM AST SUN DEC 7 2014

.SYNOPSIS...AT UPPER LEVELS...WEST NORTHWEST FLOW WILL CONTINUE
INTO EARLY THIS WEEK. THE JET STREAM THAT CROSSED THROUGH PUERTO
RICO OVERNIGHT YESTERDAY WILL RETURN TO THE AREA LATE MONDAY INTO
TUESDAY. FLOW WILL SHIFT MORE TO THE WEST SOUTHWEST AS THE RIDGE
CROSSES THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT FOLLOWED BY A WEAK TROUGH ON
THURSDAY MORNING. DYNAMICS ARE WEAK AND FLOW AT UPPER LEVELS IS
OFTEN CONVERGENT.

AT MID LEVELS...LOW PRESSURE ALONG 60 WEST WILL MERGE WITH THE
UPPER LEVELS FLOW TONIGHT AND HIGH PRESSURE WILL RETURN TO THE
CARIBBEAN WATERS TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. A STRONG UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH WILL MOVE THROUGH THE WESTERN ATLANTIC WEDNESDAY NIGHT BUT
WILL RESULT IN A RIDGE EXTENDING NORTHEAST OF THE AREA. HIGH
PRESSURE DOMINATES THE CARIBBEAN FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY OF THIS WEEK.
A STRONG TROUGH MAY COME THROUGH MID MONTH.

AT LOWER LEVELS...LOW PRESSURE ALONG 60 WEST WILL MOVE NORTHEAST
SOMEWHAT AND THEN BE ABSORBED BY A LOW THAT DEEPENS TO ITS WEST
AND MOVES INTO THE NORTHEAST UNITED STATES WEDNESDAY. THIS WILL
LEAVE WEAK GRADIENTS AND LIGHT WINDS OVER THE LOCAL AREA THROUGH
THURSDAY AND LIGHT TO MODERATE TRADE WIND FLOW THROUGH MID MONTH.

&&

.DISCUSSION...SHOWERS CAME ONSHORE IN PUERTO RICO AND QUICKLY
DISSIPATED LEAVING VERY LIGHT AMOUNTS ALONG THE NORTHERN
COAST...MAINLY FROM ARECIBO EAST. SHOWERS WERE HEAVIER OVER THE
WATERS NORTH OF CULEBRA AND THE NORTHERN VIRGIN ISLANDS. SOME
SHOWERS WERE ALSO SEEN IN AND BEYOND OUR SOUTHERNMOST LOCAL OUTER
CARIBBEAN WATERS. THE GFS SHOWS PRECIPITABLE WATER DECREASING
THROUGHOUT THE DAY TODAY AND BOUNCING LATE SUNDAY NIGHT AND DURING
THE DAY MONDAY TO LEVELS SEEN YESTERDAY. A FEW BANDS OF MOISTURE
MAY ROLL AROUND THE LOW PRESSURE IN THE NORTHERLY FLOW OVER THE
AREA MONDAY AND TUESDAY AND ISOLATED SHOWERS CANNOT BE RULED OUT
OVER THE INTERIOR MONTANE AREAS OF PUERTO RICO EACH AFTERNOON.
THE GFS IS NOW SHOWING FLOW BECOMING MORE EASTERLY ON MONDAY AND
MONDAY NIGHT...PROBABLY DUE TO THE FACT THAT THE LOW PRESSURE
ALONG 60 WEST DID NOT DEEPEN AS MUCH AS THE MODEL HAD ORIGINALLY
FORECAST. THIS WILL INCREASE THE PROBABILITIES OF NIGHT AND EARLY
MORNING SHOWERS IN EASTERN PUERTO RICO EVER SO SLIGHTLY EACH NIGHT
MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY. THEN BETTER MOISTURE ARRIVES AND IT IS
EXPECTED WE WILL SEE SCATTERED SHOWERS ON THE WINDWARD COASTS AND
IN THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS FRIDAY NIGHT AND INTO THE WEEKEND.

THE LONG TERM OUTLOOK CURRENTLY SEES A COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH
ON MONDAY...15 DECEMBER...JUST AS IT DISSIPATES. THIS SHOULD BRING
COOL-WEATHER SHOWERS BACK. AMOUNTS WILL BE LIGHT FOR THOSE THAT
RECEIVE SHOWERS. THE NORTHEASTERLY FLOW THEN WILL LEAVE SOUTHERN
PUERTO RICO MOSTLY SHELTERED AND WARM HOWEVER.

&&

.AVIATION...MOSTLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS
WITH ONLY PASSING -SHRA. LATEST TJSJ SOUNDING INDICATED A LIGHT
NORTHERLY WIND FLOW ALL THE WAY FROM THE SURFACE TO AROUND 15K
FEET...BECOMING NORTHWESTERLY AND STRONGER ABOVE 15K FEET. NO
SIGNIFICANT WEATHER HAZARDS EXPECTED.

&&

.MARINE...WHILE SEAS REMAIN ABOVE 7 FEET AT THE OUTER BUOY
41043...SEAS REMAIN 5 TO 6 FEET IN LOCAL INNER ATLANTIC WATERS.
SEAS WILL INCREASE MID WEEK THIS WEEK AND SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES
WILL LIKELY BE RAISED. MODELS ARE INDICATING SEAS MAY RISE EVEN TO
8 FEET...BUT WILL HOLD OFF IN CASE MODELS ARE OVER FORECASTING
STORMINESS IN THE ATLANTIC AS THEY DID THIS WEEKEND. CARIBBEAN
SEAS WILL REMAIN TRANQUIL THROUGH AT LEAST LATE IN THE WEEK. SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORIES ARE NOT EXPECTED IN THE CARIBBEAN THROUGH BEYOND
MID MONTH.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 84 75 83 76 / 20 0 10 20
STT 84 78 86 79 / 20 10 10 10

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Posts: 0

Puerto Rico Weather Dec 8, 2014 4:07:57 GMT -6

Quote

Post by Deleted on Dec 8, 2014 4:07:57 GMT -6

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
509 AM AST MON DEC 8 2014

.SYNOPSIS...MID TO UPPER LEVEL AREA OF LOW PRESSURE AND ASSOCIATED
TROUGH ACROSS THE WEST CENTRAL ATLANTIC WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE
NORTH AWAY FROM THE LOCAL AREA. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE
WILL CONTINUE TO DOMINATE THE LOCAL REGION. VERY DRY AIR WILL
CONTINUE ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH MID WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...CLEAR SKIES PREVAILED ACROSS PUERTO RICO AND THE U.S
VIRGIN ISLANDS OVERNIGHT. LIGHT NORTHERLY WINDS COMBINED WITH FAIR
SKIES...RESULTED IN PLEASANT TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE REGION. LOCAL
AREA IS DOMINATE BY VERY DRY AIR AT ALL LEVEL OF THE ATMOSPHERE
WITH LATEST 08/00Z TJSJ SOUNDING SHOWING ONLY 0.99 INCHES IN
PRECIPITABLE WATER. IN FACT...GFS COMPUTER MODEL SUGGESTS THIS
VALUE WILL DROP TO 0.75 INCHES BY THIS AFTERNOON. MOISTURE
RECOVERY IS NOT EXPECTED UNTIL THURSDAY WHEN SURFACE WINDS SHIFT
FROM A MORE SOUTHERLY DIRECTION. HOWEVER...ANY RAIN WILL BE
LIMITED WITHOUT ANY SIGNIFICANT ACCUMULATIONS. IN THE LATER PART OF
THE WEEK...COMPUTER MODELS SUGGEST A FRONTAL MONDAY WILL APPROACH
THE LOCAL REGION FROM THE NORTHWEST...BRINGING BETTER CHANCES FOR
SHOWERS ACROSS THE REGION FOR NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION...MOSTLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE NEXT 24
HOURS. VERY LITTLE IF ANY SHRA ACTIVITY EXPECTED. LATEST TJSJ
SOUNDING INDICATED A LIGHT NORTHEAST WIND FLOW ALL THE WAY FROM THE
SURFACE TO 20K FEET...BUT STRONGER AND STILL FROM THE NORTHEAST
ABOVE 20K FEET.

&&

.MARINE...A LARGE SWELL EVENT WILL BEGIN TO AFFECT OUR LOCAL WATERS ON
TUESDAY. A MODERATE NORTHEAST SWELL WILL BEGIN TO AFFECT DURING
THE DAY ON TUESDAY BUT A LARGER WITH A MORE NORTH NORTHWEST
COMPONENT WILL BEGIN TO AFFECT THE LOCAL WATERS ON TUESDAY NIGHT.
THIS SECOND SWELL WILL GENERATE DANGEROUS MARINE CONDITIONS FOR
MARINERS AND BEACH GOERS. THIS SWELL WILL PEAK ON WEDNESDAY AND
THEN SLOWLY SUBSIDE THROUGH SATURDAY. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES AND
HIGH SURF ADVISORIES WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE AT SAN JUAN WFO IN THE NEXT 24 HOURS FOR THIS SWELL EVENT.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 81 72 83 73 / 10 20 20 10
STT 85 72 86 74 / 10 10 10 20

Deleted

Posts: 0

Puerto Rico Weather Dec 9, 2014 4:11:41 GMT -6

Quote

Post by Deleted on Dec 9, 2014 4:11:41 GMT -6

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
521 AM AST TUE DEC 9 2014

.SYNOPSIS...WEAK HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE WILL CONTINUE TO
DOMINATE THE LOCAL REGION. UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL REMAIN IN PLACE
THROUGH MOST OF THE WEEK. PATCHES OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL MOVE
ACROSS THE REGION DURING THE WEEKEND. FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL APPROACH
THE REGION EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...ONCE AGAIN...CLEAR SKIES PREVAILED ACROSS PUERTO
RICO AND THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS OVERNIGHT. LOCAL AREA REMAINED
UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A WEAK SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE...AND AN UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE. AS A RESULT...WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN DRY
TODAY WITH VERY LITTLE SHOWER ACTIVITY EXPECTED TO DEVELOP.
SURFACE WINDS WILL SHIFT MORE EAST SOUTHEAST TODAY AS DEEP LOW
PRESSURE DEVELOPS JUST EAST OF THE EASTERN U.S COAST. THE
ASSOCIATED FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL STAY NORTH OF THE AREA.

FOR LATE PART OF THE WEEK...PATCHES OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE...EMBEDDED
IN THE TRADE WIND FLOW ARE EXPECTED TO AFFECT THE LOCAL AREA.
BETTER CHANCES FOR SHOWERS ARE THEN EXPECTED MAINLY ON
SATURDAY...AS MOISTURE INCREASES. FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK...GFS
COMPUTER MODEL INDICATED A FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL APPROACH THE LOCAL
REGION FROM THE NORTHWEST. AN INCREASE IN CLOUDINESS AND SHOWER
ACTIVITY IS POSSIBLE MONDAY AND TUESDAY NEXT WEEK WITH THIS
FEATURE.

&&

.AVIATION...MOSTLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE NEXT 24
HOURS. NO SIG OPERATIONAL WX OR AVN HAZARDS. LIGHT TRADE WINDS
AROUND 10 KTS WITH SEA BREEZE VARIATIONS.

&&

.MARINE...INCREASING HAZARDOUS SEAS AND SWELL ACTION IS FORECAST TO
ARRIVE BY LATE TONIGHT THEN PEAK ON WEDNESDAY AS NORTHERLY SWELLS
ARRIVE AND SPREAD ACROSS THE LOCAL WATERS. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
IS IN EFFECT FOR THE ATLANTIC WATERS. A HIGH SURF ADVISORY WILL BE
IN EFFECT FOR THE NORTHERN COASTLINE OF PUERTO RICO...VIEQUES...
CULEBRA...SAINT THOMAS AND SAINT JOHN. REFER TO LATEST COASTAL
FLOOD PRODUCTS FOR LATEST INFORMATION.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 83 73 83 74 / 10 10 10 20
STT 85 73 86 75 / 10 10 10 30

Deleted

Posts: 0

Puerto Rico Weather Dec 10, 2014 4:11:13 GMT -6

Quote

Post by Deleted on Dec 10, 2014 4:11:13 GMT -6

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
540 AM AST WED DEC 10 2014

.SYNOPSIS...MID TO UPPER LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE WILL HOLD MOST OF
THE WEEK. THIS RIDGE ALOFT WILL MAINTAIN THE FAIR WEATHER PATTERN ACROSS
THE LOCAL REGION THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. A SHEARLINE/FRONTAL
TROUGH WILL REACH THE NORTHEAST CARIBBEAN REGION NEXT WEEK...FAVORING
THE LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE AND MOISTURE TRANSPORT ACROSS THE LOCAL ISLANDS.

&&

.DISCUSSION...LIGHT LAND BREEZES DURING OVERNIGHT HOURS RESULTED IN
MOSTLY CLEAR AND SOMEWHAT COOL CONDITIONS ACROSS THE LOCAL ISLANDS.
A FAIRLY STRONG MID-UPPER RIDGE HAVE KEPT A STABLE ATMOSPHERE ACROSS
THE ISLANDS. IN ADDITION...PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES ARE RUNNING
NEAR 1.25 INCH...ABOUT 10 TO 20 PERCENT BELOW NORMAL FOR DECEMBER.
MODELS AGREE ON FAIR WEATHER CONDITIONS PREVAILING ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA THROUGH THE END OF THE WORK WEEK. UNDER THE INFLUENCE
OF A MID LEVEL RIDGE...A FAIRLY STRONG SUBSIDENCE CAP WILL TRAP THE
MOISTURE AT LOW LEVELS...LIMITING THE ORGANIZED CONVECTION ACROSS
THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH THE WEEKEND. ALTHOUGH...MODERATE EASTERLY
TRADES ARE EXPECTED TO RETURN TO THE FORECAST AREA THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY...THE ABSENCE OF MESO-SYNOPTIC FORCING WILL KEEP THE RAINFALL
AMOUNTS RELATIVELY LOW. OVERALL...THE REST OF THE WEEK...EXPECT A
FEW SHOWERS AFFECTING THE WINDWARD SIDE OF THE ISLANDS FROM TIME TO
TIME AND ISOLATED SHALLOW CONVECTION DEVELOPING OVER WESTERN PR IN
THE AFTERNOON.

FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK...A WEAK COLD FRONT AND ITS ASSOCIATED SHEARLINE
WILL REACH THE NORTHEAST CARIBBEAN ON MONDAY...INCREASING THE
MOISTURE CONTENT AND ENHANCING THE LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE ACROSS
THE LOCAL REGION. THIS WILL RESULT IN ADDITIONAL CLOUDS AND SHOWERS
AFFECTING THE ISLANDS LATE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY
IS FORECAST TO CROSS PUERTO RICO LATE MONDAY WHILE SLOWLY DISSIPATES.
MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THE BOUNDARY WILL LINGER NEAR THE ISLANDS
THROUGH MIDWEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED TROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD.
LIGHT EAST TO SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL PREVAIL BELOW FL100.

&&

.MARINE...LARGE...LONG PERIOD NORTHERLY SWELLS OF 7-9 FT WILL
CONTINUE TO AFFECT THE REGIONAL WATERS THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT.
SWELL ACTION EXPECTED TO PEAK LATER TODAY...AND SLOWLY SUBSIDE
LATE THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY. THESE LARGE SWELLS WILL PRODUCE
DANGEROUS SURF CONDITIONS...STRONG RIP CURRENTS...MINOR COASTAL
EROSION AS WELL AS COASTAL FLOODING IN LOW LYING AREAS ALONG THE
NORTH COAST. THEREFORE...A HIGH SURF ADVISORY AND THE COASTAL
FLOOD WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR THE NORTH FACING COASTS OF PR AND
NORTHERN USVI.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 85 72 84 74 / 10 20 20 30
STT 85 74 86 76 / 20 30 30 20

Deleted

Posts: 0

Puerto Rico Weather Dec 11, 2014 4:17:14 GMT -6

Quote

Post by Deleted on Dec 11, 2014 4:17:14 GMT -6

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
536 AM AST THU DEC 11 2014

.SYNOPSIS...RIDGE PATTERN IS TO GENERALLY HOLD OVER THE NEXT FEW
DAYS...MAINTAINING A GENERALLY FAIR WEATHER CONDITIONS ACROSS THE
LOCAL ISLANDS. SOME WEAKENING OF THE SUBEQUATORIAL RIDGE IS EXPECTED
DURING THE WEEKEND AS A BROAD TROUGH MOVE INTO THE WESTERN ATLANTIC.
A SHEARLINE/FRONTAL TROUGH WILL APPROACH THE NORTHEAST CARIBBEAN
REGION ON SUNDAY...ENHANCING THE LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE AND MOISTURE
TRANSPORT ACROSS PUERTO RICO AND U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS.

&&

.DISCUSSION...SATELLITE AND RADAR IMAGERY SHOWED SCATTERED SHOWERS
MAINLY ACROSS THE REGIONAL WATERS. SOME SHOWERS AFFECTED NORTHWEST
PR NEAR MIDNIGHT. THE SKIES GRADUALLY CLEAR OUT OVER THE ISLANDS
DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS...ALLOWING TEMPERATURES TO DROP AROUND
60-65 DEGREES OVER THE INTERIOR AND MOUNTAIN SECTIONS OF PUERTO
RICO. FAIRLY DRY AND STABLE ATMOSPHERE IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE
ACROSS THE LOCAL ISLANDS OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS. LATEST SATELLITE
BLENDED TPW ANALYSIS SHOWS MOISTURE ACROSS PUERTO RICO AND THE
USVI ABOUT 10 PERCENT BELOW NORMAL FOR DECEMBER. GENTLE EASTERLY
TRADES ARE FORECAST TO PERSIST THROUGH SATURDAY. THEN...SURFACE
WINDS BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE SUNDAY THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK AS A
FRONTAL BOUNDARY APPROACHES FORM THE NORTHWEST. THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY
AND ITS ASSOCIATED SHEARLINE WILL REACH THE NORTHEAST CARIBBEAN
REGION LATE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY...INCREASING THE CHANCES OF SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. MOISTURE ASSOCIATED
WITH THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS FORECAST TO LINGER OVER PUERTO RICO
AND THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS UNTIL TUESDAY. WEATHER CONDITIONS
IMPROVE AGAIN BY MIDWEEK NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...MOSTLY VFR CONDS EXPECTED THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS
WITH LIGHT TRADE WINDS AROUND 10 KTS WITH SEA BREEZE VARIATIONS
AFT 11/15Z. AN ISOLATED SHOWER OR TWO POSSIBLE NEAR TJMZ AFT 10/17Z.

&&

.MARINE... A LARGE...LONG PERIOD NORTHERLY SWELLS OF 7-9 FEET WILL
CONTINUE TO AFFECT THE ATLANTIC WATERS THROUGH AT LEAST FRIDAY NIGHT.
AS A RESULT...A HIGH SURF ADVISORY AND COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY REMAIN
IN EFFECT FOR THE NORTH FACING COASTS OF PR AND USVI. SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORIES ALSO REMAIN IN EFFECT FOR ALL OF THE WATERS...EXCEPT
THE COASTAL WATERS OF SOUTHWEST AND SOUTH PR. PLEASE REFER TO THE
LATEST COASTAL WATERS...MARINE WEATHER MESSAGE FOR ADDITIONAL
INFORMATION.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 84 75 84 72 / 10 30 30 20
STT 85 75 86 74 / 20 30 30 20

Deleted

Posts: 0

Puerto Rico Weather Dec 12, 2014 4:24:38 GMT -6

Quote

Post by Deleted on Dec 12, 2014 4:24:38 GMT -6

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
522 AM AST FRI DEC 12 2014

.SYNOPSIS...RIDGE ALOFT WILL WEAKEN DURING THE UPCOMING WEEKEND...
AS DEEP TROUGH MOVES ACROSS THE WESTERN ATLANTIC WITH ASSOCIATED
FRONT REACHING THE AREA EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...MOSTLY CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES PREVAILED
ACROSS THE LOCAL ISLANDS OVERNIGHT...WITH BRIEF SHOWERS OBSERVED
OVER THE REGIONAL WATERS. WINDS WERE LIGHT AND VARIABLE WITH
COASTAL TEMPERATURES IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S.

MOSTLY FAIR WEATHER WILL CONTINUE TO PREVAIL ACROSS THE LOCAL
ISLANDS FRIDAY AND SATURDAY WITH TRADE WIND SHOWERS ACROSS
WINDWARD AREAS FROM TIME TO TIME...FOLLOWED BY SHALLOW AFTERNOON
CONVECTION ACROSS WESTERN PUERTO RICO UNDER WEAKENING RIDGE
ALOFT...MODERATE EASTERLY WINDS AND NEAR NORMAL PRECIPITABLE
WATER VALUES.

AS DEEP TROUGH MOVES ACROSS THE WESTERN ATLANTIC EARLY NEXT WEEK...
PREFRONTAL TROUGH WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA SUNDAY FOLLOWED BY
THE FRONTAL PASSAGE ON MONDAY. THEREFORE...A BETTER CHANCE OF
SHOWER ACTIVITY IS THEN EXPECTED WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE SUNDAY AND MONDAY. THE HEAVIEST
SHOWERS WILL BE FOCUSED OVER AND NORTH OF THE CORDILLERA BOTH
DAYS. LINGERING MOISTURE STILL EXPECTED EARLY TUESDAY...HOWEVER
A SHARP DECREASE IS ANTICIPATED LATE TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.
THEREFORE BY MID WEEK EXPECT MOSTLY FAIR WEATHER CONDITIONS WITH
FEW PASSING SHOWERS AND PLEASANT TEMPERATURES UNDER NORTHERLY
WINDS AND A MUCH DRIER AIR MASS.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS
ACROSS THE LOCAL TERMINALS. PASSING SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS
TNCM/TKPK/TIST/TJSJ/TISX EARLY IN THE MORNING. CLOUDS AND SHRA
DEVELOPING OVER MAINLAND PR AFTER 12/17Z...CREATING MOUNTAIN
OBSCURATIONS AND BRIEF MVFR CONDS MAINLY OVER TJMZ. LIGHT TO CALM
AND VARIABLE WINDS UNTIL 12/13Z...AFT 12/13Z WINDS WILL STRENGTHEN
TO 5-15 KNOTS WITH HIGHER GUSTS IN/AROUND SHRA.

&&

.MARINE...LARGE NORTHERLY SWELLS WILL CONTINUE TO AFFECT THE LOCAL
WATERS THROUGH TONIGHT...THEN SLOWLY SUBSIDING ON SATURDAY. EXPECT
SWELLS OF 6 TO 8 FEET WITH BREAKING WAVES OF 12 TO 14 FEET TODAY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 85 74 85 74 / 20 20 20 10
STT 86 74 86 74 / 20 20 20 20

Deleted

Posts: 0

Puerto Rico Weather Dec 12, 2014 13:36:03 GMT -6

Quote

Post by Deleted on Dec 12, 2014 13:36:03 GMT -6

FLOOD ADVISORY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
252 PM AST FRI DEC 12 2014

PRC003-011-081-083-097-099-117-131-122145-
/O.NEW.TJSJ.FA.Y.0284.141212T1852Z-141212T2145Z/
/00000.N.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
ANASCO PR-MAYAGUEZ PR-LARES PR-MOCA PR-SAN SEBASTIAN PR-LAS MARIAS
PR-RINCON PR-AGUADA PR-
252 PM AST FRI DEC 12 2014

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN SAN JUAN HAS ISSUED AN

* URBAN AND SMALL STREAM FLOOD ADVISORY FOR MINOR FLOODING OF POOR
DRAINAGE AREAS IN
FOR THE FOLLOWING MUNICIPALITIES...

IN PUERTO RICO
ANASCO...MAYAGUEZ...LARES...MOCA...SAN SEBASTIAN...LAS MARIAS...
RINCON AND AGUADA

* UNTIL 545 PM AST

* AT 251 PM AST...DOPPLER RADAR ESTIMATED VERY HEAVY RAIN IN THE
ADVISORY AREA. RUNOFF FROM HEAVY RAINFALL WILL CAUSE ELEVATED LEVELS
ON SMALL CREEKS AND STREAMS...AND PONDING OF WATER IN URBAN
AREAS...HIGHWAYS...STREETS AND UNDERPASSES AS WELL AS OTHER POOR
DRAINAGE AREAS AND LOW LYING SPOTS.

DO NOT DRIVE YOUR VEHICLE INTO AREAS WHERE THE WATER COVERS THE
ROADWAY. THE WATER DEPTH MAY BE TOO GREAT TO ALLOW YOUR CAR TO CROSS
SAFELY. MOVE TO HIGHER GROUND.

&&

LAT...LON 1827 6691 1820 6691 1820 6694 1821 6698
1820 6700 1830 6723 1838 6725 1839 6723
1839 6722 1841 6719

$$

DS

SKYSUMMIT Administrator President \| Director of Operations Posts: 67,639 Location: Ponchatoula, LA Staff Member	Puerto Rico Weather Dec 12, 2014 14:13:07 GMT -6 Quote Select Post Deselect Post Link to Post Back to Top Post by SKYSUMMIT on Dec 12, 2014 14:13:07 GMT -6
	Buying or Selling Real Estate?--->scottguidry.com United Real Estate Partners - New Orleans / North Shore Scott Guidry, Realtor, ABR, AHWD, AWREP, C2EX Click HERE To Download My FREE MLS Touch App! NWS COOP ID: 16-7425-08 CoCoRaHs ID: LA-TG-23

Deleted

Posts: 0

Puerto Rico Weather Dec 13, 2014 4:10:28 GMT -6

Quote

Post by Deleted on Dec 13, 2014 4:10:28 GMT -6

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
412 AM AST SAT DEC 13 2014

.SYNOPSIS...RIDGE ALOFT WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY ERODE DURING THE
WEEKEND...AS DEEP TROUGH MOVES ACROSS THE WESTERN ATLANTIC WITH
ASSOCIATED FRONT REACHING THE AREA ON MONDAY.

&&

.DISCUSSION...MOSTLY CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES PREVAILED ACROSS
THE LOCAL ISLANDS OVERNIGHT...WITH BRIEF SHOWERS OBSERVED OVER
THE EASTERN THIRD OF PUERTO RICO...THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS AS
WELL AS THE REGIONAL WATERS. WINDS WERE LIGHT AND VARIABLE WITH
COASTAL TEMPERATURES IN THE LOW TO MID 70S.

MOSTLY FAIR WEATHER WILL CONTINUE TO PREVAIL ACROSS THE LOCAL
ISLANDS TODAY WITH PASSING SHOWERS ACROSS WINDWARD AREAS FROM
TIME TO TIME...FOLLOWED BY AFTERNOON CONVECTION ACROSS NW PUERTO
RICO UNDER ERODING RIDGE...MODERATE EASTERLY WINDS AND NEAR
NORMAL PRECIPITABLE WATER. AS DEEP TROUGH MOVES ACROSS THE
WESTERN ATLANTIC...PREFRONTAL TROUGH WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA
SUNDAY FOLLOWED BY THE FRONTAL PASSAGE ON MONDAY. THEREFORE SUNDAY
THROUGH AT LEAST TUESDAY...EXPECT THE CONTINUED TREND OF PASSING
SHOWERS ACROSS THE NORTH AND EAST COASTAL AREAS WITH SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORM POSSIBLE DEVELOPING OVER AND NORTH OF THE CORDILLERA
EACH DAY. LINGERING MOISTURE STILL EXPECTED LATE TUESDAY...WITH
A SHARP DECREASE ON WEDNESDAY. AS A RESULT...BY MID WEEK EXPECT
MOSTLY FAIR WEATHER CONDITIONS WITH FEW PASSING SHOWERS AND
PLEASANT TEMPERATURES UNDER BUILDING RIDGE...NORTHERLY WINDS AND
A MUCH DRIER AIR MASS.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE NEXT 24
HOURS ACROSS ALL TERMINALS. BRIEF PASSING SHRA EXPECTED ACROSS
TIST/TJSJ/TISX OVERNIGHT AND EARLY IN THE MORNING. FOLLOWED BY
LOW LEVEL CLOUDINESS AND SHRA/ISOLD TSRA OVER MAINLAND PR AFTER
13/18Z...CREATING MOUNTAIN OBSCURATIONS AND BRIEF MVFR CONDS
MAINLY OVER THE WESTERN PR TAF SITES. OVERNIGHT LAND BREEZE WILL
FAVOR LIGHT TO CALM AND VARIABLE WINDS...ONCE AGAIN...AFT 13/13Z
WILL INTENSIFY BETWEEN 5 TO 15 KNOTS WITH HIGHER GUSTS IN/AROUND
SHRA/TSRA.

&&

.MARINE...NORTHEASTERLY SWELLS WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY SUBSIDE
THIS MORNING...HOWEVER HAZARDOUS SEAS WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE
ACROSS THE OFFSHORE ATLANTIC WATERS. TRADE WINDS ARE EXPECTED
TO GRADUALLY WEAKEN THROUGH MONDAY. A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL REACH
THE LOCAL AREA ON MONDAY...BRINGING PERIODS OF SHOWERS AND
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE ACROSS THE LOCAL WATERS MONDAY
AND TUESDAY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 85 74 85 74 / 10 20 50 50
STT 86 74 86 74 / 0 30 30 50

Shoutbox

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Puerto Rico Weather

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