Puerto Rico Weather

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
453 AM AST SUN FEB 7 2016

.SYNOPSIS...A MID TO UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD
ACROSS THE AREA FROM THE WEST...AS TUTT ACROSS THE TROPICAL
ATLANTIC MOVES FURTHER EAST WHILE WEAKENING. CONTINUE TO EXPECT
SOUTHEAST WINDS ACROSS THE LOCAL ISLANDS THE NEXT FEW DAYS.

&&

.DISCUSSION...AS WEAK SURFACE PERTURBATION AND ASSOCIATED
MOISTURE MOVES AWAY FROM THE AREA EARLY THIS MORNING...PASSING
SHOWERS WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE ACROSS THE USVI...E PR AND ATLC
WATERS. LINGERING MOISTURE WILL THEN COMBINE WITH LOCAL EFFECTS
TO PRODUCE SHOWERS ACROSS NW PR IN THE AFTERNOON.

AS THE RIDGE PATTERN ALOFT CONTINUES TO BUILD FROM THE WEST...LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE WILL THEN ERODE LATE TONIGHT WITH PRECIPITABLE
WATER NEAR NORMAL VALUES MUCH OF THE WORK WEEK. THEREFORE MONDAY
THROUGH AT LEAST FRIDAY...UNDER RIDGE PATTERN...ENOUGH MOISTURE
AND EAST SOUTHEAST WINDS...EXPECT PASSING SHOWERS ACROSS THE USVI
AND SOUTHEAST PUERTO RICO IN THE MORNING...FOLLOWED BY ISOLATED TO
LOCALLY SCATTERED AFTERNOON SHOWERS OVER NORTHWEST PUERTO RICO
WITH THE DRIEST DAY BEING FRIDAY. WARM TEMPERATURES ARE ALSO
EXPECTED ALONG THE NORTH COAST OF PUERTO RICO THOSE DAYS UNDER THE
SOUTHEAST WIND FLOW. MOISTURE IS EXPECTED TO POOL ACROSS THE LOCAL
ISLANDS NEXT WEEKEND AS A FRONTAL BOUNDARY APPROACHES FROM THE
NORTHWEST.

&&

.AVIATION...ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE
ACROSS PART OF THE LOCAL FLYING AREA THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS
AFFECTING MAINLY TNCM...TKPK...TIST...TISX AND TJSJ. HOWEVER
MOSTLY VICINITY SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED. LATEST TJSJ SOUNDING
INDICATED A SOUTHERLY WIND FLOW UP TO 20 KNOTS ALL THE WAY FROM
THE SURFACE TO AROUND 10K FEET BECOMING NORTH NORTHWESTERLY AND
STRONGER ABOVE 10K FEET.

&&

.MARINE...SEAS UP TO 6 FT AND WINDS AROUND 18 KT ACROSS THE
ATLANTIC... CARIBBEAN OFFSHORE WATERS AND LOCAL PASSAGES.
THEREFORE...SMALL CRAFT SHOULD EXERCISE CAUTION. LONG PERIOD
NORTHWEST SWELL... ASSOCIATED WITH A DEVELOPING AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE ACROSS THE WESTERN ATLANTIC...WILL REACH THE ATLANTIC
WATERS ON TUESDAY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 88 74 88 74 / 30 10 20 20
STT 85 75 85 75 / 40 20 20 30

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
405 AM AST TUE FEB 9 2016

.SYNOPSIS...A MID TO UPPER LEVEL RIDGE CONTINUES ALOFT. SURFACE
HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE EAST CENTRAL ATLANTIC WILL MAINTAIN
GENTLE TO MODERATE TRADE WINDS ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH AT LEAST
MID WEEK. A FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL REMAIN WELL NORTH OF THE AREA
FOR MOST OF THE WEEK. PATCHES OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL AFFECT
THE REGION FROM TIME TO TIME.

&&

.DISCUSSION....ISOLATED TO LOCALLY SCATTERED SHOWERS MOVED ACROSS
THE LOCAL FORECAST AREA. THESE SHOWERS AFFECTED THE ISLAND OF
CULEBRA THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. THESE SAME SHOWERS WILL
CONTINUE TO MOVE WEST AND AFFECT THE EASTERN PORTIONS PUERTO RICO
AT AROUND SUNRISE. THIS AFTERNOON...EXPECT ISOLATED TO LOCALLY
SCATTERED SHOWERS TO DEVELOP OVER THE WESTERN INTERIOR AND
NORTHWEST PORTIONS OF PUERTO RICO.


MOSTLY SUNNY AND RELATIVELY DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
TO PREVAIL ACROSS THE REGION...WITH MINIMAL SHOWER ACTIVITY
EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE AREA. AFTER MID WEEK...AN INCREASE
IN MOISTURE IS FORECAST AS A FRONTAL BOUNDARY APPROACHES THE LOCAL
AREA FROM THE NORTH INDUCING A SURFACE TROUGH WHILE INTERACTING
WITH A SURGE OF MOISTURE IN THE EASTERLY WIND FLOW.


&&

.AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL DURING THE NEXT
24 HOURS ACROSS ALL TERMINALS. SHOWERS POSSIBLE IN AND AROUND JBQ
AFT 09/17Z. SFC WNDS EAST TO SOUTHEAST AT 10 TO 15KT AFTER 09/13Z.

&&

.MARINE...A LARGE LONG PERIOD NORTHWEST SWELL...GENERATED FROM AN
AREA OF LOW PRESSURE ACROSS THE NORTHWESTERN ATLANTIC...WILL
ARRIVE ACROSS THE LOCAL ATLANTIC WATERS TODAY. THIS WILL RESULT
IN HAZARDOUS SEAS. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES WILL BE IN EFFECT FOR
THE ATLANTIC WATERS AND LOCAL PASSAGES AT LEAST UNTIL WEDNESDAY.
PLEASE REFER TO THE LATEST COASTAL WATERS FORECAST AND MARINE
WEATHER MESSAGE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WFO SAN
JUAN PR.

THE ARRIVAL OF LONG PERIOD NORTHWESTERLY SWELL WILL GENERATE BREAKING
WAVES BETWEEN 8 TO 13 FEET THIS AFTERNOON ALONG MOST OF THE
ATLANTIC BEACHES OF PUERTO RICO...CULEBRA AND THE NORTHERN U.S.
VIRGIN ISLANDS. THIS WILL RESULT IN A HIGH RISK OF RIP CURRENTS
BEGINNING EARLY THIS MORNING. PLEASE REFER TO THE LATEST COASTAL
HAZARD MESSAGE ISSUED BY WFO SAN JUAN PR FOR ADDITIONAL
INFORMATION.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 88 73 88 73 / 20 30 30 10
STT 86 74 86 74 / 20 30 30 20

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
541 AM AST THU FEB 11 2016

.SYNOPSIS...MID TO UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO DOMINATE
THE LOCAL WEATHER PATTERN THROUGH FRIDAY. A DEEP POLAR LOW/TROUGH
WILL MOVE INTO THE NORTHWEST ATLANTIC ERODING THE RIDGE DURING THE
WEEKEND. AT THE SAME TIME...EASTERLY PERTURBATIONS ARE FORECAST TO
MOVE ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA BETWEEN SATURDAY AND MONDAY...RESULTING
IN GENERALLY UNSTABLE CONDITIONS ACROSS THE LOCAL ISLANDS.

&&

.DISCUSSION...WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOW A DRY AND STABLE AIR MASS
AT MID-UPPER LEVELS COVERING THE LESSER ANTILLES AND PUERTO RICO.
STRONG CAP INVERSION AND A SUBSIDENCE AIR MASS WILL KEEP THE LOCAL
AREA WITH LIMITED SHOWER ACTIVITY TODAY. THE DRIEST DAY OF THE
NEXT 7 DAYS APPEARS TO BE TODAY. GFS FORECAST SOUNDINGS SUGGEST
THAT THE PRECIPITABLE WATER WILL DROP BELOW ONE INCH AROUND 18Z...
THIS IS A 20%-25% PERCENT BELOW NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF THE YEAR.

A WETTER AND MORE UNSTABLE PATTERN IS FORECAST FOR THE UPCOMING
WEEKEND AS THE UPPER RIDGE COLLAPSES AND A SERIES OF SURFACE
TROUGHS MOVE ACROSS THE LOCAL ISLANDS. GOOD UPPER DYNAMICS
ASSOCIATED WITH THE PROXIMITY OF THE SUBTROPICAL JET WILL INCREASE
THE RISK OF THUNDERSTORMS FROM SATURDAY THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK.
LOOKS LIKE THE BEST MOISTURE CONVERGE WILL OCCUR ON MONDAY WHEN AN
EASTERLY PERTURBATION/SURFACE TROUGH WILL CROSS THE ISLANDS.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL DURING THE NEXT
24 HOURS AT ALL TERMINALS. HOWEVER...SHOWERS POSSIBLE IN AND AROUND
JBQ/JMZ AFT 11/17Z. LOW LEVEL WINDS FM THE EAST TO SOUTHEAST AT 10
TO 15 KNOTS...WITH SEA BREEZE VARIATIONS AFTER 14Z.

&&

.MARINE...OFFSHORE BUOY 41043 REGISTERED ANOTHER PULSE OF LONG
PERIOD NORTHERLY SWELL OF 7-8 FT DURING OVERNIGHT HOURS. SOME OF
THIS SWELL ENERGY WILL FILTER ACROSS THE LOCAL ATLANTIC WATERS AND
CARIBBEAN PASSAGE LATER TODAY. THIS WILL MAINTAIN HAZARDOUS MARINE
CONDITIONS ACROSS THE OUTER ATLANTIC WATERS AS WELL AS A HIGH RISK
OF RIP CURRENTS ALONG THE NORTH FACING BEACHES OF PUERTO RICO...CULEBRA
AND NORTHERN USVI THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING. THE REST OF THE
WEEK...SEAS WILL REMAIN AROUND 4-6 FEET ACROSS MOST OF THE LOCAL
WATERS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 88 74 85 74 / 10 20 20 30
STT 85 74 84 74 / 20 20 20 40

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
557 AM AST SAT FEB 13 2016

.SYNOPSIS...RIDGE ALOFT WILL CONTINUE TO ERODE AS TROUGH AMPLIFIES
FROM THE WESTERN ATLANTIC INTO THE CARIBBEAN BASIN THRU THE REST
OF THE WEEKEND. A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL REMAIN NW OF THE
FORECAST AREA. HOWEVER...AN INDUCED LOW LEVEL TROUGH WILL MOVE
OVER THE ISLANDS SUN-MON INCREASING THE CHANCES OF SHOWERS.
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE OVER THE EASTERN ATLANTIC
THROUGH THE EARLY PART OF NEXT WEEK AS ITS REPLACED BY A STRONGER
ONE. TRADE WINDS WILL INCREASE IN RESPONSE TO THIS HIGH BETWEEN
15-20 KNOTS AT THE SFC ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA.

&&

.DISCUSSION...MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES PREVAILED OVER LAND AREAS DURING
THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. HOWEVER...A SURGE OF LOW LEVEL CLOUDINESS AND
LIGHT SHOWERS MOVED OVER THE ANEGADA PASSAGE AND THE ATLANTIC
WATERS. A FEW OF THESE SHOWERS COULD REACH PARTS OF THE
USVI/WINDWARD AREAS OF PR DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS. FOR THIS
AFTERNOON...THE LIMITED AVAILABLE MOISTURE IN COMBINATION WITH
LOCAL EFFECTS WILL ALLOW THE DEVELOPMENT OF SHOWERS OVER THE
WESTERN INTERIOR/WEST SECTIONS OF PR AND STREAMERS DEVELOPING
OVER THE USVI.

AS SHORT WAVE TROF ALOFT AND INDUCED SFC TROF MOVES ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA ON SUNDAY/MONDAY...MOISTURE CONVERGENCE WILL
INCREASE OVER THE ISLANDS. THIS WILL ENHANCE THE DIURNAL INDUCED
AFTERNOON CONVECTION OVER THE ISLANDS AND NIGHT TIME TRADE WIND
SHOWERS OVER EASTERN PR AND THE USVI. THIS WETTER PATTERN IS
EXPECTED TO LINGER THRU AT LEAST TUESDAY. MID TO UPPER RIDGE WILL
BUILD ONCE AGAIN QUICKLY. THIS WILL RETURN NORMAL PWAT VALUES AND
LIMITING THE LOCAL WEATHER TO TRADE WIND SHOWERS AND LIMITED
AFTERNOON CONVECTION OVER WESTERN PR THRU THE END OF THE NEXT
WORK WEEK WHEN ANOTHER UPPER TROF AND ASSOCIATED FRONT IS FORECAST
TO MOVE NEAR THE FORECAST AREA.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS ALL TAF SITES THROUGH
THE FORECAST PERIOD. SOME CLOUDINESS AND SHRA ARE EXPECTED OVER
WESTERN INTERIOR AND WEST SECTIONS OF PUERTO RICO THIS AFTERNOON.
THIS MAY RESULT IN VCSH AND BRIEF MVFR CIGS AT TJMZ BETWEEN 17-
21Z. LOW LEVEL WINDS WILL CONTINUE MAINLY EAST AT 10-15 KTS.


&&

.MARINE...NORTHERLY SWELL WILL FADE TODAY ACROSS THE OFFSHORE
ATLANTIC WATERS. HOWEVER...SMALL CRAFTS SHOULD EXERCISE CAUTION
DUE TO SEAS UP TO 6 FEET. ELSEWHERE...SEAS UP TO 5 FEET ARE
EXPECTED AND EAST WINDS BETWEEN 5-15 KNOTS. WINDS AND SEAS WILL
INCREASE EARLY NEXT WEEK AS A STRONG HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OVER THE
WESTERN ATLANTIC INTO THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 87 73 86 73 / 30 30 30 50
STT 84 73 85 73 / 40 50 50 50

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR

602 AM AST MON FEB 15 2016



.SYNOPSIS...SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDING ACROSS THE NORTHEASTERN

CARIBBEAN INTO THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC...AND HIGH PRESSURE MOVING

ACROSS THE WESTERN ATLANTIC...WILL MAINTAIN MODERATE TO STRONG

EASTERLY WINDS ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. THE ATLANTIC HIGH IS

EXPECTED TO BE REINFORCED AND BUILD NORTH OF THE REGION OVER THE

NEXT FEW DAYS. IN THE MEANTIME... A FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS TO REMAIN

NORTH OF THE AREA...AS THE INDUCED SURFACE TROUGH WILL MOVE ACROSS

THE REGION THROUGH EARLY TUESDAY. THIS TROUGH IS TO THEN GRADUALLY

WEAKEN AS THE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS NORTH OF THE AREA. A MID TO UPPER

LEVEL SHORT WAVE TROUGH WILL MOVE ACROSS THE WESTERN ATLANTIC TODAY

THROUGH EARLY TUESDAY. THIS WILL BE FOLLOWED BY A HIGH AMPLITUDE

LONG WAVE TROUGH WHICH IS TO ENTER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC BY WEDNESDAY

AND MOVE ACROSS THE REGION THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY. THIS PATTERN WILL

AID IN MAINTAINING UPPER LEVEL INSTABILITY THROUGH MOST OF THE

WORK WEEK.



&&



.DISCUSSION...INDUCED SURFACE TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED MOISTURE CONVERGENCE...

ALONG WITH MID TO UPPER LEVEL INSTABILITY WILL SUPPORT MAINLY LIGHT

TO MODERATE CONVECTION ACROSS MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA DURING THE

REST OF THE MORNING. THE DOPPLER WEATHER RADAR HOWEVER SHOWED ISOLATED

AREAS OF LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL MOVING ACROSS PORTIONS OF

SOUTHEAST PUERTO RICO AS WELL AS VIEQUES...CULEBRA AND THE U.S.

VIRGIN ISLANDS. THESE SHOWERS SO FAR WERE OF SHORT DURATION.

EXPECT THE TROUGH AND ACCOMPANYING SURGE OF MOISTURE TO SPREAD

WESTWARDS ACROSS THE REST OF REGION DURING THE DAY. THIS ALONG

WITH A 70-80 KNOT UPPER LEVEL JET SEGMENT MOVING NORTH OF THE

REGION WILL PROVIDE SUFFICIENT VENTILATION AND INSTABILITY FOR

SOME ENHANCE CONVECTION ACROSS THE REGION. THE FREQUENCY OF THE

SHOWERS SHOULD DECREASE ACROSS THE U.S VIRGIN ISLANDS AND EASTERN

PUERTO RICO BY LATE MORNING. HOWEVER DURING THE REST OF THE

DAY...SOME OF THIS ACTIVITY WILL SPREAD ACROSS THE WEST AND

CENTRAL SECTIONS OF PUERTO RICO WHERE ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL

BE POSSIBLE.



LOW LEVEL MOISTURE ADVECTION AND INSTABILITY IS SO FAR EXPECTED

TO GRADUALLY DIMINISH ON TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. HOWEVER BY THE

LATTER PART OF THE WORK WEEK....RECENT MODEL GUIDANCE CONTINUED

TO SUGGEST THE APPROACH OF ANOTHER FRONTAL BOUNDARY AND INDUCED

SURFACE TROUGH ACROSS THE REGION. THIS ALONG WITH THE PREVIOUSLY

MENTIONED HIGH AMPLITUDE LONG WAVE TROUGH... SHOULD AGAIN BRING A

SIGNIFICANT INCREASE IN LOW LEVEL MOISTURE CONVERGENCE AND UPPER

LEVEL INSTABILITY ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA ONCE AGAIN TO MAINTAIN

A FAIRLY MOIST WEATHER PATTERN.



&&



.AVIATION...AN INCREASE IN CLOUDINESS AND BRIEF PERIODS OF SHRA WILL

CONTINUE TO MOVE ACROSS THE LOCAL FLYING AREA THIS MORNING PRODUCING

BRIEF PERIODS OF MVFR ACROSS TNCM...TKPK...TIST...TISX AND TJSJ UNTIL

15/16Z. VCSH LIKELY ACROSS THE REST OF THE LOCAL TAF SITES. SHRA/TSRA

POSSIBLE OVER THE INTERIOR AND WEST SECTIONS OF PUERTO RICO AFFECTING

TJMZ AND TJBQ BETWEEN 15/17Z-15/22Z. SOME OF THESE ACTIVITY COULD

ALSO PRODUCE BRIEF MVFR CONDITIONS. SFC WINDS WILL CONTINUE FROM

THE EAST AT AROUND 10 KTS EARLY THIS MORNING... INCREASING TO AROUND

15KT AND GUSTY AFTER 15/13Z.



&&



.MARINE...WINDS AND SEAS WILL INCREASE DURING THE FIRST HALF OF THE WEEK

AS A STRONG SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OVER THE WESTERN AND CENTRAL

ATLANTIC. THIS WILL TIGHTEN THE LOCAL PRESSURE GRADIENT LEADING TO

AN INCREASE EASTERLY TRADE WINDS. AS A RESULT CHOPPY TO ROUGH AND

HAZARDOUS SEAS CAN BE EXPECTED ACROSS MOST OF THE REGIONAL WATERS.

SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WILL BE IN AFFECT FROM THIS MORNING TROUGH AT

LEAST WEDNESDAY FOR THE OFFSHORE ATLANTIC AND ANEGADA PASSAGE.

SMALL CRAFT OPERATORS SHOULD EXERCISE CAUTION ELSEWHERE DUE TO THE

INCREASING TRADE WINDS. PLEASE REFER TO THE LATEST COASTAL WATERS

FORECAST AND MARINE WEATHER MESSAGE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER

SERVICE WFO SAN JUAN PR FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION.



&&



.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...

SJU 85 73 87 74 / 70 40 40 20

STT 83 74 85 75 / 70 50 50 40

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
426 AM AST WED FEB 17 2016

.SYNOPSIS...A MID TO UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL REMAIN AS THE MAIN
WEATHER FEATURE ACROSS THE LOCAL ISLANDS THROUGH THURSDAY.
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL AMPLIFY ACROSS THE NORTHEAST CARIBBEAN
BY FRIDAY. AT THE SAME TIME AN ASSOCIATED FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL
APPROACH FROM THE WEST AND A SURFACE TROUGH WILL MOVE ACROSS THE
REGION FROM THE EAST. THESE FEATURE ARE EXPECTED TO INDUCE A
RELATIVELY WET PATTERN BY THE UPCOMING WEEKEND. A HIGH PRESSURE
WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE EASTWARD INTO THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC...
RESULTING IN A MODERATE TO FRESH EASTERLY WIND FLOW.

&&

.DISCUSSION...LATEST SATELLITES AND RADAR OBSERVATIONS THIS
MORNING DEPICTED ONLY SMALL AREAS OF CLOUDINESS AND SHOWERS MOSTLY
ACROSS THE SURROUNDING COASTAL WATERS. NOT SIGNIFICANT
PRECIPITATION WAS OBSERVED OVER LAND AREAS OVERNIGHT AND EARLY
THIS MORNING. A MID TO UPPER LEVEL RIDGE ACROSS THE REGION WILL
CONTINUE TO INHIBIT THE DEVELOPMENT OF SIGNIFICANT SHOWERS ACROSS
THE LOCAL ISLANDS FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. HOWEVER...THE
MODERATE TO FRESH EAST TO EAST SOUTHEAST LOW LEVEL WIND FLOW WILL
CONTINUE TO TRANSPORT SMALL AREAS OF CLOUDINESS WITH BRIEF PERIODS
OF SHOWERS ACROSS THE EASTERN SECTIONS OF PUERTO RICO OVERNIGHTS
AND EARLY IN THE MORNINGS...WITH SOME LIMITED CONVECTION EXPECTED
TO DEVELOP OVER WESTERN AND INTERIOR PUERTO RICO EACH AFTERNOON.

AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO AMPLIFY ACROSS THE NORTHEAST
CARIBBEAN THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY ERODING THE MID TO UPPER RIDGE.
AT THE SAME TIME AN ASSOCIATED FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL APPROACH TO
THE LOCAL ISLANDS FROM THE NORTHWEST. A SURFACE TROUGH WILL MOVE
ACROSS THE REGION FROM THE EAST DURING THE UPCOMING WEEKEND. THE
COMBINATION OF THESE FEATURES WILL PRODUCE AN INCREASE IN
MOISTURE TRANSPORT ACROSS THE LOCAL ISLAND INDUCING AN INCREASE
IN SHOWERS ACROSS THE REGION. HOWEVER...AT THIS TIME NOT
SIGNIFICANT OR WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED.

&&

.AVIATION...BRIEF PERIODS OF MVFR CONDITIONS DUE TO SHRA ARE
EXPECTED IN THE LEEWARD ISLANDS TIL 17/15Z AND IN NW PR AFTER 17/17Z
TIL AROUND 17/22Z...OTHERWISE MOSTLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED WITH
ONLY VICINITY SHOWERS THROUGH THE PERIOD. MOUNTAIN OBSCURATIONS IN
HIGHEST TERRAIN EXPECTED MAINLY AFTER 17/17Z. EAST SOUTHEAST WINDS
WILL BECOME 10 TO 15 KT AFTER 17/14Z WITH MINIMAL SEA BREEZE
INFLUENCE. ESE WINDS TURN TO WNW AROUND FL180 AND STRENGTHEN TO
ALMOST 80 KNOTS AROUND FL460.

&&

.MARINE...SEAS ARE STILL EXPECTED TO BE UP TO 8 FEET ACROSS THE
OFFSHORE ATLANTIC WATERS WITH SOME OF THE NEARSHORE WATERS
REACHING 7 FEET AND OCCASIONALLY HIGHER. THERE IS STILL A SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY FOR MOST OF THE LOCAL WATERS. LATEST GUIDANCE
SUGGESTED THAT THE WINDS AND SEAS WILL DIMINISH SLIGHTLY THIS AFTERNOON.
SO THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR NEARSHORE WATERS ARE SET TO EXPIRE
AT 2 PM AST THIS AFTERNOON...WITH THE THE ANEGADA PASSAGE AND THE
OFFSHORE ATLANTIC WATERS REMAINING UNDER ADVISORY UNTIL THURSDAY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 88 74 88 75 / 20 20 20 40
STT 85 75 85 74 / 20 30 30 50

&&

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR

540 AM AST FRI FEB 19 2016



.SYNOPSIS...AT UPPER LEVELS...AN 80-100 KNOT JET WILL MOVE SOUTH

OF PUERTO RICO AND THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS AS IT PASSES OVERHEAD

EARLY THIS MORNING. A FEW HOURS LATER THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL

ALSO PASS AND FLOW WILL TURN TO THE NORTHWEST. TONIGHT FLOW WILL

SLOWLY TURN BACK TO WEST UNTIL A SECOND WEAKER TROUGH PASSES

THROUGH ON SUNDAY NIGHT. A RIDGE WILL BUILD OVER THE AREA EARLY

NEXT WEEK...BUT WILL NOT PASS TO THE EAST UNTIL LATE WEDNESDAY

NIGHT.



AT MID LEVELS...AFTER THE PERIPHERY OF A WEAK MID-LATITUDE TROUGH

PASSES THROUGH TODAY A RIDGE WILL BUILD SLOWLY IN FROM THE WEST

OVER THE LOCAL AREA. BY MONDAY NIGHT A HIGH WILL FORM OVER THE

MONA PASSAGE AND MOVE OVER PUERTO RICO MID WEEK NEXT WEEK. IT WILL

RETREAT BACK TO THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN BY LATE NEXT WEEK LEAVING A

RIDGE OVER THE AREA. MODEST MOISTURE DISAPPEARS MONDAY NIGHT AND

REAPPEARS LATE FRIDAY AS A SECOND FRONT APPROACHES THE AREA.



AT LOWER LEVELS...A SHEARLINE IS CROSSING THROUGH PUERTO RICO WITH

DIFFICULTY AND WILL BE IN THE LEEWARD ISLANDS BY LATE TONIGHT.

THIS WILL BRING A WIND SHIFT TO THE NORTHEAST OVER THE FORECAST

AREA AND WINDS WILL INCREASE CONSIDERABLY. A SECOND COLD FRONT

WILL APPROACH LATE NEXT WEEK.



&&



.DISCUSSION...THE LAST SHOWERS OVER PUERTO RICO DISSIPATED JUST

BEFORE 2 AM AST. SHOWERS INCREASED OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN QUADRANT

OF OUR LOCAL WATERS AND ALSO OVER THE EXTREME NORTHWESTERN CORNER

OF THE FORECAST AREA WHERE SHOWERS MARK OUT THE AIR BEHIND THE

SHEARLINE. ALTHOUGH SHOWERS CAME CLOSE TO SAINT CROIX...NONE OF

THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS HAVE REPORTED ANY RAIN OVERNIGHT. BUOYS

ALREADY IN THE POST FRONTAL AIR MASS TO OUR NORTHWEST ARE SHOWING

NORTH WINDS AROUND 20 KNOTS. MODELS UNIVERSALLY SHOWED NORTH WINDS

TO THE NORTHWEST IN AGREEMENT WITH THE BUOYS AND FORECAST THEM TO

MOVE INTO THE NORTHERN PART OF THE LOCAL WATERS DURING THE DAY

TODAY AND INCREASE UP TO 20 KNOTS. THE GFS SUGGESTS THAT THESE

WINDS WILL TURN NORTHEAST TODAY AND THEN BEGIN TO FADE SUNDAY

MORNING. CURRENTLY MODELS HAVE SUFFICIENT MOISTURE IN LOWER LEVELS

TO BRING SHOWERS ONSHORE TONIGHT AND TOMORROW AND INTO SUNDAY.

BEST RAIN THIS AFTERNOON IS EXPECTED OVER THE CORDILLERA

CENTRAL...BUT RAIN COULD COME ONSHORE IN PUERTO RICO AND CROSS THE

U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS AS SOON AS THE WINDS HAVE CHANGED ENOUGH TO

BRING IN THE MOISTURE BEHIND THE SHEARLINE.



THE SHEARLINE ADVANCES UNTIL EARLY SUNDAY...THEN SLOWLY COMES

BACK WHILE DISSIPATING. A SECOND FRONT MOVES OVER THE BAHAMA

ISLANDS ON WEDNESDAY TO REACH ITS CLOSEST APPROACH THE SATURDAY

AFTER NEXT.



MEANWHILE PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES NEAR 1.6 INCHES FALL

UNSTEADILY UNTIL THEY FINALLY REACH JUST BELOW 1.2 INCHES ON

TUESDAY. SOME MOISTURE ACCOMPANIES THE NEXT TROUGH PASSAGE AROUND

TUESDAY...BUT THEN DRYING OCCURS AHEAD OF THE FOLLOWING WEEKEND.

THIS WILL YIELD SCATTERED SHOWERS...ESPECIALLY ON THE WINDWARD

SIDE OF PUERTO RICO THROUGH MUCH OF THE REST OF THIS WEEK AND THE

NEXT.



TEMPERATURES SHOULD COOL A LITTLE OVERALL THROUGH SATURDAY AND

THEN REBOUND THROUGH TUESDAY ALMOST TO LEVELS SEEN THURSDAY

BEFORE LEVELING OFF.



&&



.AVIATION...VCSH EXPECTED FOR TIST/TJSJ/TISX THROUGH THE MORNING

HOURS AS A FRONTAL BOUNDARY CONTINUES TO PRODUCE A NORTHERLY WIND

FLOW. ALSO...OCCASIONAL -SHRA EXPECTED ACROSS TNCM/TKPK DURING THE

FCST PRD. THEREAFTER...SHRA/TSRA EXPECTED OVER THE CORDILLERA

CENTRAL AND ACROSS THE SOUTH AND SOUTHWEST PR AFTER 19/16Z.

VCSH/VCTS LIKELY FOR TJPS/TJMZ WITH TEMPO MVFR CONDS POSSIBLE AT

TJPS BTWN 19/17-23Z. WINDS LIGHT TO CALM AND VARIABLE...BECOMING

FROM THE NE AT 10-15KT WITH HIGHER GUSTS IN/NEAR SHRA/TSRA.



&&



.MARINE...MARINE CONDITIONS HAVE BOTTOMED OUT WITH REGARDS TO

WINDS AND SEAS. NORTH TO NORTHEAST WINDS WILL COMMENCE DURING THE

DAY TODAY ALONG WITH SEAS AND BY TONIGHT SEAS WILL BE 7 TO 8 FEET

IN THE NORTHERNMOST OUTER WATERS. MODELS SHOW NORTHEAST SWELL

INCREASING THROUGH LATE SATURDAY TO ALMOST 10 FEET. AT THIS TIME

IT APPEARS THAT WINDS ARE BEING OVER-FORECAST BY THE MODELS AND WE

ARE HOLDING SEAS BACK TO 8 FEET FOR THE TIME BEING. THIS IS ALSO

WHAT IS BEING SEEN AT BUOYS TO THE NORTHWEST. SEAS ABATE ONLY A

LITTLE ON SUNDAY. THEN A NEW TRAIN OF NORTHERLY SWELL ARRIVES ON

MONDAY. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE IN THE

NORTHERN WATERS UNTIL TUESDAY.



&&



.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...

SJU 85 74 83 73 / 30 60 50 50

STT 84 76 84 77 / 40 70 40 50