Post by cycloneye on Mar 8, 2016 5:20:48 GMT -6
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
556 AM AST TUE MAR 8 2016
.SYNOPSIS...WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE SOUTH
ACROSS THE OFFSHORE CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE ANEGADA PASSAGE TODAY.
STRONG SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD AND HOLD ACROSS THE
WESTERN ATLANTIC FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. MID TO UPPER RIDGE
WILL BUILD FROM THE WEST ACROSS THE CARIBBEAN BASIN AND CONTINUE
THRU THE FCST PERIOD. BREEZY TRADE WINDS AND FAIR WEATHER
CONDITIONS EXPECTED FOR THE REST OF THE WEEK.
&&
.DISCUSSION...PASSING SHOWERS EMBEDDED ON NORTHERLY WIND FLOW
REACHED MAINLY THE COASTAL AREAS OF NORTHERN PR AND SOME SECTIONS
OF THE INTERIOR. RAIN GAGES REPORTED MAX AMOUNTS OF AROUND A
QUARTER OF AN INCH ACROSS AGUAS BUENAS AND CANOVANAS. FOR THE REST
OF THE DAY...SHOWERS SHOULD CONTINUE ACROSS THE SAME AREAS OF THE
NORTHERN HALF OF PR AND FROM TIME TO TIME ACROSS THE USVI. AS THE
DAY PROGRESSES...A DIRER MID TO UPPER LEVEL AIR MASS WILL FILTER
OVER THE FORECAST AREAS AS STRONG CAP INVERSION ESTABLISHES ABV
850MB. HOWEVER...SOME DIURNAL AFTERNOON INDUCED SHOWERS CAN STILL
DEVELOP OVER AND SOUTH OF THE CORDILLERA.
THE STRONG SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING ACROSS THE WESTERN
ATLANTIC WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY FURTHER SOUTH
ACROSS THE OFFSHORE CARIBBEAN WATERS AND ANEGADA PASSAGE THROUGH
LATE TONIGHT. FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS...BREEZY CONDITIONS FROM
THE NORTH AND TRADE WIND SHOWERS WILL LIKELY PREVAIL EACH DAY WITH
LIMITED...IF ANY...DIURNAL INDUCED AFTERNOON SHOWERS DEVELOPING
OVER THE INTERIOR AND SOUTH SECTIONS OF THE ISLANDS.
&&
.AVIATION...ALTHOUGH FRONTAL BOUNDARY CROSSED THE ISLANDS...
NORTHERLY FLOW WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH -SHRA OVER THE FLYING AREA
THROUGH AT LEAST 08/18Z. THIS WILL RESULT IN MVFR CEILING WITH
PASSING-SHRA AND MOUNTAIN OBSCURATIONS ALONG THE NORTHERN SLOPES.
CONDS WILL IMPROVE AFT 08/18Z...WHEN VFR CONDS WILL PREVAIL
EVERYWHERE. NNE WINDS OF 15-25 KT WITH GUSTS AROUND 30 KT LIKELY
THRU THE FORECAST PERIOD
&&
.MARINE...HAZARDOUS SEAS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS MUCH OF THE LOCAL
WATERS...AS NORTHERLY SWELL SLOWLY SUBSIDE AND WIND GENERATED
SEAS BETWEEN 6-10 FEET PREVAIL FOR MUCH OF THE WEEK. SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORIES ARE IN EFFECT FOR ALL LOCAL WATERS EXCEPT IN THE NEAR
SHORE CARIBBEAN WATERS. HOWEVER...NORTH TO NORTHEAST WINDS AROUND
20 KNOTS WITH HIGHER GUSTS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS ALL LOCAL WATERS
THROUGH AT LEAST THURSDAY. HIGH RISK OF RIP CURRENTS LIKELY TO
CONTINUE ACROSS THE NORTH AND EAST FACING BEACHES OF THE ISLANDS
THRU THE END OF THE WEEK.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 82 74 82 72 / 50 20 20 30
STT 85 73 85 73 / 50 20 20 10