Puerto Rico Weather

NEW

cycloneye
Category 5

Posts: 2,507

Puerto Rico Weather May 24, 2016 4:17:18 GMT -6

Quote

Post by cycloneye on May 24, 2016 4:17:18 GMT -6

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service San Juan PR
536 AM AST TUE MAY 24 2016

.SYNOPSIS...High pressure at mid and upper levels will generate
only modest showers and possibly a few thunderstorms today and
tomorrow. Moisture increases over the weekend and low level flow
becomes more southerly.

At upper levels...A ridge extends north out of South
America and across the Anegada Passage...while a low forms north
of Cuba and a trough moves northeast toward Hispaniola today
through Thursday. The trough will continue to hover around the
windward passage through the weekend and areas of divergence will
move through as fragments of a jet around the trough pass over the
local area.

At mid levels...High pressure over the windward islands will
continue to build north and spread over and beyond the local area.
On thursday a low pressure will form over the Bahama Islands
affecting the local area weakly, but it will move northwest.

At lower levels...High pressure over the Central Atlantic will
slowly weaken during the week and over the weekend...and moderate
east southeast trade winds will weaken and shift to the southeast
late in the week at the surface. Above the surface flow turns
more southerly on Sunday and better moisture is seen to start the
coming week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...Spotty light showers developed over the Caribbean
overnight and a few moved onshore across southern Puerto Rico. In
the pre-dawn hours heavier showers developed between Vieques and
Culebra and passed over the eastern tip of Puerto Rico and the
inner waters to the north. Little activity was seen yesterday
during the day and conditions are not expected to change much
today. It is expected that southeasterly flow will persist just
long enough today to allow the temperatures on the north coast of
Puerto Rico to touch the lower 90s. Dew points overnight in San
Juan were in the mid 70s despite the light land breeze and
although they will be lower during the day today, they will still
contribute to spotty areas of heat indices between 100 and 102
degrees in some places along the north coast and possibly along
the immediate south coastal areas as well.

According to the GFS, moisture gradually increases during the
week, over the weekend and again early next week, reaching over
2.2 inches of precipitable water mid week next week. The best
conditions for convection, that is showers and thunderstorms do
not occur until moisture from South America reach the area on
Saturday night and Sunday. This is when mid levels finally become
much wetter, but stability also increases somewhat. Therefore
expect increasing rain amounts and a higher risk of urban and
small stream flooding in Puerto Rico and possibly even in the U.S.
Virgin Islands.

&&

.AVIATION...Mostly VFR conds expected during the rest of the
forecast period. VCSH psbl across TJSJ/TIST/TISX this morning.
Isolated SHRA can be expected over NW PR...psbly affecting TJMZ
and TJBQ btwn 25/17- 23z. Sfc winds mainly from the east southeast
at 5 to 10 kts increasing at 10 to 20 with higher gusts.

&&

.MARINE...Winds and seas will fluctuate in the normal daily
pattern generally between 10 and 18 knots and between 4 to 6 feet
today and tomorrow, but conditions are expected to improve after
Wednesday. Small craft advisory conditions are not expected.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 91 78 88 77 / 20 30 10 20
STT 89 80 88 76 / 20 20 10 20

cycloneye
Category 5

Posts: 2,507

Puerto Rico Weather May 25, 2016 3:52:14 GMT -6

Quote

Post by cycloneye on May 25, 2016 3:52:14 GMT -6

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service San Juan PR
547 AM AST WED MAY 25 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
A mid to upper level ridge will hold across the Northeastern
Caribbean, as a trough meander over the Western Caribbean. Ridge
aloft is expected to slowly erode during the Memorial Day
weekend. At lower levels, a strong high pressure across the
central Atlantic and an induced trough northwest of the local
islands will continue to promote an easterly winds through friday.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
The doppler radar detected an increase in shower activity across
the local waters...some of these showers moved across the
windward sections overnight. These showers were brief, but the
Doppler Radar estimated rainfall accumulations around half an inch
across some locations of East and Southeast P.R., as well as
traces across the U.S. Virgin Islands. The winds were mainly from
the east at less than 10 mph and the temperatures ranged from
around 80s along the coastal areas to the mid 60s across the
mountainous areas.

Satellite imagery indicate a dry air mass approaching the
islands...this will combined with a ridge aloft to limit shower
activity across the local islands during the morning hours.
Meanwhile, the ridge aloft will favor a generally fair weather
pattern, but under the prevailing northeasterly wind flow...a few
showers and possibly a thunderstorm or two are possible across the
interior and southwestern sections of Puerto Rico this afternoon.
Elsewhere, expect little to no shower activity.

Both the GFS and the ECMWF guidances are suggesting the erosion of
the upper level ridge by the upcoming weekend. As a result, the
potential for shower and thunderstorm activity should increase
across the local region. Also...the guidances indicate the
development of a Surface Low near the Bahamas...if this pattern
hold...it will enhance the transport of ITCZ moisture across the
Caribbean region...and possibly across the local area by the
upcoming weekend and into the early part of the upcoming week.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR conds expected thru the rest of the forecast period.
Areas of high clouds will continue to move across the flying area
thru 26/06Z. Light passing SHRA over local waters movg just south of
west. Sfc winds E-ESE 5 to 15 kt incrg til 25/18z with gusts near
coast of nrn PR to 25 kt. Winds switch to north btwn FL070-120 then
become W by FL170 and increase to 70 kt by FL430.

&&

.MARINE...Mariners can expect seas between 3 and 5 feet across
most of the local waters and winds below 18 knots. However, winds
up to 20 knots are possible across the coastal waters of northern
and southern PR. Therefore small craft operators should exercise
caution across these areas. Tranquil marine conditions are
expected to prevailed during the rest of the work week. For the
beach goers, there is a moderate risk of rip currents for most of
the local beaches, refer to the surf zone forecast for more
details.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 89 77 88 77 / 20 20 20 40
STT 89 78 87 77 / 20 20 20 40

cycloneye
Category 5

Posts: 2,507

Puerto Rico Weather May 26, 2016 4:17:34 GMT -6

Quote

Post by cycloneye on May 26, 2016 4:17:34 GMT -6

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service San Juan PR
555 AM AST THU MAY 26 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
At upper levels, a mid to upper level ridge will continue over the
Eastern Caribbean. While a trough, and it associated Low near
Bahamas, continues anchored over the Western Caribbean. At low
levels, a surface high pressure over the Central Atlantic will
weakens. An induced surface low, off to the north of Hispanola,
will move toward the Florida Peninsula.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Mostly cloudy skies prevailed over during the overnight hours...as
mid to upper level clouds moved over the region. The Doppler
radar detected showers moving across the local waters and some of
them moved inland but no significant amounts were measured.
Satellite imagery showed plenty of clouds across the region or
moving toward the local islands, as a result partly to mostly
cloudy skies are expected this morning. Although little to no
shower activity is expected...some brief passing showers still
possible across the eastern sections of Puerto Rico and the U.S.
Virgin Islands this morning. Then during the afternoon, locally
and diurnally induced convection is likely mainly across portions
of the west interior sections of Puerto Rico. Elsewhere, expect
little to no shower activity. A similar pattern is expected on
Friday.

Both the GFS and the ECMWF guidances are suggesting the erosion of
the upper level ridge...as a deep layer trough amplifies over Cuba
and Bahamas during the next few days. This pattern will promote
the transport of tropical moisture across the Caribbean region. If
this pattern hold, the potential for shower and thunderstorm
activity should increase across the local region during the
weekend and the upcoming week.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR conds expected to prevail at all TAF sites during
the forecast period, with thin but incrg high/mid clouds moving
across the from the SW. SHRA/TSRA development expected across W PR
aft 26/17z and will cause mtn obscurations and areas of MVFR conds
in and around TJMZ through 26/22z. Winds increasing to 10 to 15
knots from the east after 26/12Z. Winds alf bcmg SW arnd FL170 and
incrg to W 60 kt by FL460.

&&

.MARINE...Winds and seas will continue to slowly subside across
the region as the surface High pressure over the Central Atlantic
weakens. Therefore...expect moderate winds and seas of 3-5 ft over
the region. However...if the model guidance are correct...mariners
should expect an increase in shower and thunderstorm activity
across the local waters by the weekend and into the upcoming week.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 88 79 90 76 / 20 40 40 30
STT 89 79 87 78 / 20 40 40 40

cycloneye
Category 5

Posts: 2,507

Puerto Rico Weather May 27, 2016 4:37:12 GMT -6

Quote

Post by cycloneye on May 27, 2016 4:37:12 GMT -6

Area Forecast Discussion

National Weather Service San Juan PR

617 AM AST FRI MAY 27 2016

.SYNOPSIS...

At upper level, a ridge aloft will continue to slowly erode

during the next few days, as a deep mid-upper level trough, with a

close low over Bahamas-Cuba, sinks southeast into the forecast

area during the weekend. At the surface...a low pressure system

located over the Bahamas is favoring moisture transport across the

Central and Eastern Caribbean. A broad area of high pressure

across the Central Atlantic continues to weaken. A tropical wave

located near the Lesser Antilles will approach the local area

during the next few days.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

Mostly cloudy skies prevailed across the local area overnight.

The Doppler radar detected shower activity across the local

waters...some of them moved inland but less than 0.10 inches of

rain were estimated. Coastal winds were light and variable with

temperatures ranging between the upper 70s and low 80s. For the

morning hours, expect partly to mostly cloudy skies with

occasional passing showers across the local waters, the U.S.

Virgin Islands and the southern and eastern sections of Puerto

Rico. At this time, we cannot ruled out afternoon convection over

the interior and western sections of Puerto Rico.

Over the weekend and into early next week, the operational models

suggest a wetter pattern, as a mid-upper level ridge erodes and

the trough aloft amplified into the region. As a surface low

pressure system, near the Bahamas moves toward Eastern U.S., deep

tropical moisture will move into the local area. As a result, high

moisture content combined with favorable upper dynamics will

increase the potential for organized convection across the

forecast area, especially Sunday and Monday. This expected moist

weather pattern is all dependent on how the expected weather

pattern unfolds over the western Atlantic during the next few

days. Regardless, all models suggest a much wetter pattern during

the latter part of the Memorial day weekend.

&&

.AVIATION...Mostly VFR conditions thru the rest of the night and

early in the morning with only VCSH across the Leeward

Islands...USVI and TJSJ taf sites until 27/14Z. SHRA and pos VCTS

after 27/17Z across TJMZ and TJBQ. Sfc winds will remain from the E

at around 10-15 knots.

&&

.MARINE...

Fairly tranquil seas will continue today with seas up to 5 feet

and winds generally around 10 to 15 knots...by Saturday winds are

expected to increase at 15 to 20 knots. Shower and thunderstorm

activity is expected to increase across the local waters during

the weekend and into the upcoming week.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...

SJU 87 77 87 77 / 40 30 50 40

STT 86 79 86 78 / 40 40 40 40

&&

cycloneye
Category 5

Posts: 2,507

Puerto Rico Weather May 28, 2016 3:58:48 GMT -6

Quote

Post by cycloneye on May 28, 2016 3:58:48 GMT -6

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service San Juan PR
451 AM AST SAT MAY 28 2016

.SYNOPSIS...Upper level low located over the Bahamas...will remain
near stationary through at least midweek next week. The proximity
of this feature will maintain a moist and unstable environment
across the Central and Eastern Caribbean over the next several
days. Surface high pressure northeast of the area will keep a long
fetch southeasterly flow through the end of next week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...Water Vapor Satellite loops showed an anticyclonic
circulation over the Bahamas associated with the aforementioned upper
level low. This feature aloft is sending a dense mid-upper level
clouds over Puerto Rico and the U.S. Virgin Islands. As a result...
expect mostly cloudy skies prevailing across the local region today.
Scattered showers will continue to affect portions of the local waters
and the windward areas during the morning hours. Then...deeper convection
still possible this afternoon across portions of the west interior
and northwest Puerto Rico this afternoon. The dense cloudiness will
inhibit somewhat the diurnal heating...resulting in near-normal max
temps as well as less shower and thunderstorm converage.

Deeper moisture is forecast to pool across the islands through midweek
next week...increasing the potential for showers and thunderstorms
across the islands...especially Sunday and Monday. Upper level dynamics
will remain favorable to support the development of thunderstorms
through at least early next week as upper trough dominates the local
region. Shower activity will likely cluster over the north and
northwest sections of Puerto Rico each afternoon as southeasterly
flow will prevail most of next week.

Then...mid to upper level ridge will establish over the region
bringing more stable conditions across the islands the second part
of next week. Although...moisture will remain slightly above normal
after midweek next week...stable conditions will likely limit the
coverage of the showers.

&&

.AVIATION...Mostly VFR conditions expected thru the forecast
period across the local flying area with vicinity SHRA across
TIST...TISX...TJSJ and TJPS. SHRA and ISOLD TSRA pos after 28/18Z
across NW PR...which could affect TJBQ and TJMZ. Sfc winds from the
E to SE at around 5 to 15 knots...with higher gusts near SHRA.

&&

.MARINE...Typical marine conditions will continue across the
local waters with seas generally 3 to 5 feet and winds around
10-15 knots. No significant changes are expected over the next
5-7 days.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 89 77 89 77 / 40 40 50 40
STT 88 79 86 79 / 40 40 40 40

cycloneye
Category 5

Posts: 2,507

Puerto Rico Weather May 29, 2016 13:14:08 GMT -6

Quote

Post by cycloneye on May 29, 2016 13:14:08 GMT -6

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service San Juan PR
152 PM AST SUN MAY 29 2016

.SYNOPSIS...Upper level low located over the Bahamas and digging
into Cuba...will remain over that general area through at least
the middle of the week. There is also an area of deeper moisture
from the south that will move over the local area...the
combination of these 2 features will keep a moist and unstable
environment across the Central and Eastern Caribbean for the next
few days. Surface high pressure northeast of the local area will
keep an east southeasterly flow through the end of next week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...Scattered to locally numerous showers affected the
local islands in the morning and early afternoon hours...mostly
over north and eastern PR in the morning and into the
afternoon...then across the northwestern quadrant of PR in the
afternoon. Some of the thunderstorms produced heavy rainfall and
frequent lightning...which caused urban and small stream flooding.
Rapid river rises were observed on those river stemming from El
Yunque Rainforest. Latest guidance and current observations
indicate that showers and thunderstorms are still expected for the
rest of this afternoon across the northwestern quadrant of
PR...while brief showers are expected elsewhere.

The upper trough is still expected to move slightly to the west
tonight...which may cause slightly less instability in the upper
levels over the local area. However...there is still plenty of
available moisture and instability to cause showers and
thunderstorms on Monday...in fact...the latest high resolution
guidance suggests that Monday afternoon will be similar to today.

For the rest of the week...the upper trough is still expected to
be over Cuba and perhaps a bit northwest of the Bahamas...this
will give way to an upper ridge slowly establishing over the
local islands. This means that we expect to have plenty of
moisture with a southeasterly wind flow but a ridge in the mid and
upper levels which should somewhat limit thunderstorm development
to only isolated thunderstorms once the moisture combines with the
local effects. Showers and thunderstorms are once again expected
on Tuesday afternoon but with slightly less coverage and intensity
according to guidance.

&&

.AVIATION...MVFR/IFR conds possible at TJBQ due to TSRA over the
area until about 29/20Z. SHRA/TSRA may also affect TJMZ and the
vicinity of the rest of the terminals this afternoon. Sct brief
SHRA expected overnight causing brief VCSH across the local
terminals except TJMZ and TJBQ. Winds from the ESE up to 15 kt
with gusts near SHRA/TSRA...decreasing to 10kt or less overnight.

&&

.MARINE...Seas generally 3 to 5 feet and winds up to 15 knots
overnight and into Monday.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 79 87 77 89 / 40 40 30 30
STT 81 86 79 85 / 40 40 40 40

cycloneye
Category 5

Posts: 2,507

Puerto Rico Weather May 30, 2016 3:57:14 GMT -6

Quote

Post by cycloneye on May 30, 2016 3:57:14 GMT -6

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service San Juan PR
535 AM AST MON MAY 30 2016

.SYNOPSIS...Upper trough across the western atlantic will
continue to promote unstable atmospheric conditions across the
region next few days. deep low level moisture will continue to
move across the region.

&&

.DISCUSSION...Round of showers and thunderstorms were seen across
the local area overnight. periods of moderate to heavy showers
were observed mainly across the eastern half of puerto rico.
Rainfall accumulation were between half to one inch in localized
areas. An upper level trough across Bahamas...Cuba and Hispaniola
will remain over that area for the next few days. This feature
will continue to maintain a relatively unstable weather pattern
across the northeast Caribbean for the next several days. A
surface high pressure across the central Atlantic will maintain a
southeast low level wind flow across the region until at least the
middle of the week. Abundant tropical low level moisture embedded
in this southeast wind flow in combination with daytime heating
and local effects are expected to produce a new round of scattered
to numerous showers and isolated thunderstorms across
interior...western and northern Puerto Monday Afternoon. No
significant changes to the present weather pattern is expected
until the middle of the week and probably through the end of the
work week...as deep low level moisture maintains good chances for
showers and thunderstorms across the region.

&&

.AVIATION...Mostly VFR conditions expected thru the rest of the
forecast period with SHRA in and around the Leeward and USVI
terminals as well as TJSJ during the morning. SHRA and ISOLD TSRA
are expected north and northwest of PR...pos affecting TJBQ/TJMZ and
possible TJSJ mainly after 30/16Z. Winds from the E to SE at around
5 to 10 knots...increasing to 10-15 knots after 30/14Z.

&&

.MARINE...Relatively tranquil marine conditions will prevail with
seas generally of 3 to 5 feet and winds up to 15 knots.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 87 77 87 78 / 50 30 40 40
STT 88 81 87 81 / 50 40 40 50

cycloneye
Category 5

Posts: 2,507

Puerto Rico Weather May 31, 2016 4:10:58 GMT -6

Quote

Post by cycloneye on May 31, 2016 4:10:58 GMT -6

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service San Juan PR
516 AM AST TUE MAY 31 2016

.SYNOPSIS...High pressure ridge north of the region and broad surface
trough spread across the central and eastern caribbean...will
maintain a moist southeasterly wind flow across the forecast area
through most of the work week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...Scattered to numerous showers with thunderstorms
were observed across Puerto rico overnight. periods of very heavy
rainfall was observerd mainly over the southeast section of Puerto
rico. Rainfall accumulation between one to two inches were
recorded in some localized areas.

The combination of the upper trough just west of the region along
with a significant moist environment...local and diurnal effects
will continue to support rapid development of showers and
thunderstorm activity across portions of the islands and coastal
waters today and at least until Wednesday. Some of the showers and
thunderstorms will continue to produce periods of locally heavy
rainfall and gusty winds which will eventually lead to minor
flooding of urban areas... rivers and small streams especially
along portions of the northern half of Puerto Rico including parts
of the San Juan metro area. it is important to mentioned that
soils are saturated over the southeast...eastern interior and east
sections of puerto rico with recent periods of heavy rainfall.
therefore...any additional rainfall...will result in rapid rises
in the rivers and creeks across these areas.

&&

.AVIATION...Mostly cloudy with VCSH across the eastern region during
the morning with brief periods of MVFR cond pos in and around USVI
terminals...TJSJ and TJPS. After 31/16Z...SHRA and ISOLD TSRA
expected over and north of the Cordillera...pos affecting TJBQ/TJMZ
and TJSJ. Winds from the ESE at around 10 to 15 knots.

&&

.MARINE...Winds are expected to increase across the coastal
waters...mainly in the Atlantic waters. As a result...small craft
should exercise caution as seas up to 6 feet and winds up to 15
knots are expected.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 89 77 87 76 / 50 40 40 40
STT 86 78 85 78 / 40 50 50 40

cycloneye
Category 5

Posts: 2,507

Puerto Rico Weather Jun 1, 2016 3:46:28 GMT -6

Quote

Post by cycloneye on Jun 1, 2016 3:46:28 GMT -6

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service San Juan PR
458 AM AST WED JUN 1 2016

.SYNOPSIS...A mid to upper level trough will continue to prevail
across the central Caribbean, while a short wave ridge extends
across the eastern Caribbean. East southeast winds are expected
to prevail across the local islands through Friday as a surface
high pressure holds across the central Atlantic. The trough to
our west and the moist east southeast wind flow will continue
to promote a wet pattern across the forecast area through early
Friday.

&&

.DISCUSSION...Mostly cloudy skies were observed across the local
islands overnight and early this morning. Areas of showers and
thunderstorms...with heavy rainfall...gusty winds...and frequent
lightning...moved across the south coastal areas of Puerto Rico
through the overnight hours. Thunderstorms were also observed
across the Caribbean waters and the Mona Passage.

The mid to upper level trough to our west and the short wave ridge
over and east of the local islands will continue to promote a
divergent pattern across the forecast area. The aforementioned
pattern combined with a moist east southeast wind flow will
continue to result in wet/unstable conditions across the local
islands through early Friday. As a result, continue to expect
showers and thunderstorms moving inland, affecting the USVI as
well as the east and south coastal areas of Puerto Rico this
morning, and spreading over and north of the Cordillera Central
during the late morning and afternoon hours. Although activity
over and north of the Cordillera will depend on how fast current
cloud cover decreases. Due to already saturated soils...urban
and small stream flooding expected with the heaviest showers with
mudslides and flash flooding possible along the main rivers and
tributaries of eastern Puerto Rico.

Intensity and areal coverage of showers and thunderstorms will
decrease on Thursday as the upper level ridge intensifies. However
still expect showers and thunderstorms across windward areas in
the morning and evening hours, with the strongest showers and
thunderstorms developing once again over and north of the
Cordillera in the afternoon.

As the ridge continues to intensify late Friday and Saturday, a
drier air mass will also move in from the east to result in fair
and stable weather conditions during the upcoming weekend and
early next week.

&&

.AVIATION...SCT-BKN cld lyrs FL025...FL050. SHRA and Isold TSRA
over regional area til 01/14Z...causing at least VCSH across most
of the local terminals and MVFR conds possible across TJPS and the
leeward islands. Mtn obscurations due to cloudiness. SFC Winds
from the E with variations near SHRA at around 5-10 kts til
01/14Z...incr to 10- 15 kts aft 01/14z with higher gusts in
passing showers.

&&

.MARINE...Fresh winds across the regional waters will keep the
seas around 4-6 feet through Thursday. Then...Marine conditions
improve somewhat as surface high pressure over the Central
Atlantic weakens.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 87 78 88 78 / 40 40 40 40
STT 88 77 87 76 / 30 40 40 40

cycloneye
Category 5

Posts: 2,507

Puerto Rico Weather Jun 2, 2016 3:49:59 GMT -6

Quote

Post by cycloneye on Jun 2, 2016 3:49:59 GMT -6

AFDSJU

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service SAN JUAN PR
Issued by National Weather Service MIAMI FL
442 AM AST THU JUN 2 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
Ridge aloft will intensify, as a mid to upper level trough
across the western Atlantic and central Caribbean continues to weaken.
East southeast winds are expected to prevail across the local islands
through Friday as a surface high pressure holds across the central Atlantic.
Another round of showers and thunderstorms are expected this afternoon
with a somewhat drier weather pattern and hazy skies expected to prevail
Friday and the upcoming weekend.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Partly cloudy skies prevailed across the local islands overnight
and early this morning with a few passing showers observed across
the USVI and the east coastal areas of Puerto Rico. Coastal
temperatures were in the mid to upper 70s and winds were east
southeast at 10 mph or less. As the upper level ridge intensifies
across the forecast area, the intensity and areal coverage of
afternoon showers and thunderstorms will decrease. However shower
and thunderstorm development still expected over and north of the
Cordillera Central this afternoon due to enough moisture, diurnal
heating and local effects. Due to already saturated soils...urban
and small stream flooding is also possible. As the ridge holds
across the eastern Caribbean Friday and into the upcoming weekend,
low level moisture will erode across the forecast area. This will
result in a generally fair and mainly stable weather pattern with
a few locally induced showers and thunderstorms across the western
interior of Puerto Rico each afternoon. Hazy skies are also
expected as SAL reaches the eastern Caribbean. Low level moisture
will increase across the local area early next week as a mid to
upper level trough develops across the tropical Atlantic and into
the eastern Caribbean.

&&

.AVIATION...
VFR conds expected through 02/15Z across the local terminals.
SHRA/TSRA development expected thereafter, likely causing VCSH/VCTS
at TJSJ, TJBQ, and TJMZ with possible MVFR conds at TJBQ between
02/17Z and 02/20Z in possible TSRA. Increasing clouds through the
day will also cause MTN obscurations. SFC winds from the ESE to SE
at around 5-10kt until 02/12Z, increasing to 10-15kt and gusty near
SHRA/TSRA after 02/12Z.

&&

.MARINE...
Fresh winds across the regional waters will keep the seas
around 4-7 feet over the next few days. As a result...a Small Craft
Advisory is in effect for the Offshore Atlantic Waters through
Friday.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 88 78 89 79 / 40 40 40 20
STT 87 76 89 79 / 40 40 40 30

cycloneye
Category 5

Posts: 2,507

Puerto Rico Weather Jun 3, 2016 4:20:26 GMT -6

Quote

Post by cycloneye on Jun 3, 2016 4:20:26 GMT -6

Area Forecast Discussion...CORRECTED
National Weather Service San Juan PR
519 AM AST FRI JUN 3 2016

.SYNOPSIS...An upper level ridge will hold across the eastern
Caribbean during the next few days. At lower levels, high pressure
ridge across the central Atlantic will continue to promote east
southeast winds through early next week. SAL will continue to
move in across the eastern Caribbean today. Under the
aforementioned pattern, expect mainly fair and stable weather
conditions with locally induced afternoon showers and hazy skies.

&&

.DISCUSSION...Partly cloudy skies prevailed across the local
islands overnight and early this morning with a few passing
showers observed across the USVI and the east coastal areas of
Puerto Rico. Coastal temperatures were in the mid to upper 70s
and winds were light and variable.

As the ridge aloft holds across the eastern Caribbean, low level
moisture will continue to erode with SAL intrusion from the east
southeast. This will result in a generally fair and mainly
stable weather pattern with hazy skies and a few locally induced
showers and thunderstorms across west Puerto Rico each afternoon.
Showers embedded in the east southeast wind flow cant be ruled
out each day across the windward areas. The aforementioned east
southeast wind flow will also promote warm to hot temperatures
along the northern slopes of Puerto Rico. These conditions should
prevail through at least the upcoming weekend.

Low level moisture will increase across the local area early next
week as an upper level trough develops across the tropical
Atlantic and into the eastern Caribbean. However, this feature
will quickly move west into the central Caribbean with a broad
mid to upper level ridge pattern building across the local area.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR conds expected through 03/16Z across all of the
local terminals. VCSH is expected through the morning hours across
all of the terminals except TJMZ. Thereafter, SHRA development is
possible over Puerto Rico, in areas in and around TJSJ, TJBQ, and
TJMZ. ISOLD TSRA possible near TJBQ and TJMZ. Saharan dust is
making its way into the local area so some haze is expected. Low
level winds will continue ESE around 10-15 knots with sea breeze
variations.

&&

.MARINE...Winds have generated seas from the east southeast that
exceed 7 feet in the outer Atlantic waters. Therefore a small
craft advisory continues through tonight. Elsewhere seas up to 6
feet and winds around 15 knots. There is a moderate to high risk
of rip currents across the exposed beaches of N Puerto Rico,
Culebra and St Croix.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 88 78 89 78 / 20 10 10 20
STT 90 80 86 80 / 20 20 20 20

&&

cycloneye
Category 5

Posts: 2,507

Puerto Rico Weather Jun 4, 2016 3:55:19 GMT -6

Quote

Post by cycloneye on Jun 4, 2016 3:55:19 GMT -6

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service San Juan PR
538 AM AST SAT JUN 4 2016

.SYNOPSIS...Saharan dust is present over the local area, causing
hazy skies, expected to improve by Monday. There is also a mid to
upper ridge over the area, which will cause a relatively stable
atmosphere. However, isolated to scattered showers still expected
due to the above average total moisture. Surface high pressure
will continue to promote easterly to ESE winds through the
weekend.

&&

.DISCUSSION...Scattered brief showers were observed across the
local area during the overnight hours. Even though there is
Saharan dust over the area and a ridge in the mid and upper
levels, there is plenty of moisture to promote passing showers
embedded in the trades through the early morning hours. Even
though the mid levels are a bit drier, there is enough moisture to
cause some shower development across the western portions of PR.
Having said that, there is only a slight chance of thunderstorm
development.

Latest guidance suggests that the upper ridge may be moving
slightly to the west on Sunday, giving way to some troughiness
near the local area. This means that Sunday may not be as dry as
we thought because there is also some guidance suggesting that the
Saharan dust will decrease significantly for Sunday afternoon. The
combination of the ridge moving west, the reduction of the Saharan
dust, and the available moisture still being above average, could
allow for some showers and a few thunderstorms to develop on
Sunday afternoon across the northwestern quadrant of PR, with
isolated brief showers elsewhere.

Moisture decreases a bit on Monday and guidance suggests a lesser
chance of showers and thunderstorms. Increasing moisture again on
Tuesday into Wednesday morning, which will increase the shower
activity once again. However, from Thursday on through the end of
the week, the available moisture is expected to decrease
significantly, with an upper ridge over the local area, promoting
stable conditions and only locally induces showers with a few
brief showers at night and early morning.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR conds expected at all TAF sites through 04/16z,
with brief SHRA possible at the Leeward and USVI terminals as well
as JSJ early this morning. SHRA development is expected over
Puerto Rico aft 04/16z in and around JSJ, JBQ, and JMZ. ISOLD TSRA
possible near JBQ and JMZ. Low level winds will continue ESE
around 10-15 knots with sea breeze variations. Saharan dust
continues to affect the flying area, reducing somewhat the
visibilities at times.

&&

.MARINE...Mariners can expect winds at 10 to 20 knots and seas up
to 6 feet today across the offshore Atlantic waters. As a result,
small craft operators should exercise caution. Winds up to
15 knots and seas up to 5 feet elsewhere. Beachgoers should be
cautious across the local beaches due to a moderate risk of rip
currents.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 88 79 89 78 / 20 20 20 20
STT 88 79 88 80 / 20 20 20 20

cycloneye
Category 5

Posts: 2,507

Puerto Rico Weather Jun 5, 2016 4:04:02 GMT -6

Quote

Post by cycloneye on Jun 5, 2016 4:04:02 GMT -6

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service San Juan PR
434 AM AST SUN JUN 5 2016

.SYNOPSIS...Saharan dust is still present over the local area but
expected to slowly diminish today, still causing hazy skies, and
expected to significantly improve by Monday. There is also a mid
and upper level trough developing just to the west of the local area,
but it will mostly affect the Leewards. However, isolated to
scattered showers still expected due to the above average total
moisture, Isolated thunderstorms across the NW quadrant of PR in
the afternoon. Surface high pressure will continue to promote
easterly to ESE winds for the next few days.

&&

.DISCUSSION...Isolated brief showers were observed across the
local area during the overnight hours. Even though there is
Saharan dust over the area and a ridge in the mid and upper
levels, there is plenty of moisture to promote passing showers
embedded in the trades through the early morning hours. Having
said that, there is an upper trough developing to the west of the
local islands and there is enough moisture to cause some shower
and thunderstorm development across the western and northwestern
portions of PR. The forecast only called for isolated
thunderstorms this afternoon because even though there is an upper
trough expected, most of the instability will be to the east of
the local islands.

Moisture decreases a bit on Monday and guidance suggests a lesser
chance of showers and thunderstorms. Increasing moisture again on
Tuesday into Wednesday morning as a tropical wave approaches,
which will increase the shower activity once again. There will be
also more instability for Wednesday associated with an upper low
expected to be to the west of the local islands. However, from
Thursday on through the end of the week, the available moisture is
expected to decrease significantly, with an upper ridge over the
local area, promoting stable conditions and only locally induces
showers with a few brief showers at night and early morning.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR conds expected at all TAF sites through 5/16z. SHRA
development over Puerto Rico aft 5/16z, and this may result in brief
MVFR conds at JBQ and JMZ. ISOLD TSRA possible near JBQ/JMZ. Low
level winds will continue ESE around 10-15 knots with sea breeze
variations.

&&

.MARINE...Mariners can expect winds at 10 to 20 knots and seas up
to 5 feet today across the local waters. Small craft operators
should exercise caution across the nearshore Atlantic waters due
to winds up to 20 knots. Winds up to 15 knots and seas up to 5
feet elsewhere. Beachgoers should be cautious across the local
beaches due to a moderate risk of rip currents.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 88 77 90 79 / 20 20 20 30
STT 85 80 88 80 / 20 20 20 20

cycloneye
Category 5

Posts: 2,507

Puerto Rico Weather Jun 6, 2016 3:53:33 GMT -6

Quote

Post by cycloneye on Jun 6, 2016 3:53:33 GMT -6

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service San Juan PR
514 AM AST MON JUN 6 2016

.SYNOPSIS...Upper level trough over the local region will fill/weaken
through midweek. Mid to Upper level ridge will dominate from late
Tuesday into Friday. Two tropical wave will move across the
Eastern Caribbean on Tuesday/Wednesday and Sunday. Overall fair
weather pattern will prevail across the islands most of the week...
except when tropical waves enhance the potential for showers and
thunderstorms.

&&

.DISCUSSION...Drier than normal air mass will move across the
local region today. This will help to limit the shower activity
across most of the area today. Some afternoon convection over
Northwest Puerto Rico still possible due to diurnal heating and
sea breeze convergence. Southeasterly flow will continue to favor
above normal temperatures in the leeward side of the islands...
especially the North and West Puerto Rico where max temperatures
will range between 90-93 degrees.

A tropical wave will move across the Eastern Caribbean between Tuesday
Afternoon and Wednesday. This will likely enhance the shower
activity across the islands and the surrounding waters. Although
the bulk of the convection associated with this wave will remain
south over the Caribbean Waters...some thunderstorms will develop
across the local waters and portions of the islands.

Fair weather conditions are forecast between early Thursday to
Saturday due to the influence of the mid level ridge.
Then...another tropical wave will cross the Eastern Caribbean
between Sunday and Monday next week. Once again...organized
convection associated with the wave is possible early next week.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR conds expected across the local flying area through
06/18Z. SHRA and possible TSRA developing across interior...western
and northwest PR...causing VCSH/VCTS and possible brief periods of
MVFR conds across TJBQ and TJMZ at some point between 06/18Z and
06/22Z. Low level winds will continue ESE around 5-10 knots through
06/12Z...increasing to 10-15 knots thereafter with sea breeze
variations.

&&

.MARINE...Winds will remain between 10-20 knots most of the week.
Seas will continue between 3-5 feet over the next 5-7 days. No
major changes are expected in the marine conditions over the next
several days. Thunderstorms are possible across the regional waters
Tuesday/Wednesday as a tropical wave moves across the Caribbean
Waters.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 90 79 90 78 / 20 30 30 40
STT 88 81 87 80 / 20 20 30 40

cycloneye
Category 5

Posts: 2,507

Puerto Rico Weather Jun 7, 2016 3:47:20 GMT -6

Quote

Post by cycloneye on Jun 7, 2016 3:47:20 GMT -6

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service San Juan PR
508 AM AST TUE JUN 7 2016

.SYNOPSIS...Upper level trough west of the region will move
westward into the Central Atlantic during the next few days.
A tropical wave will move across the islands through Wednesday...
producing showers and thunderstorms across the local area.
Then..a mid to upper level ridge will build close to the area
from Wednesday to Friday. Fair weather pattern will then prevail
across the islands from midweek to the early part of the weekend.
The next tropical wave will cross the local region between Sunday
and Monday.

&&

.DISCUSSION...Satellite imagery as well as surface analysis maps
indicated a tropical wave near 64 West this morning. High moisture
content associated with the wave will pool across the area later
today...increasing the potential for showers and thunderstorms.
Instability associated with the upper trough west of the area will
also help to enhance the convection across the islands today and
tonight. Moisture and instability will remain high through Wednesday...
therefore showers and thunderstorms will be likely across the
surrounding waters and portions of the islands.

Fair weather pattern is forecast to return to the islands late
Wednesday through at least Saturday as a mid level ridge will
build close to the Northeast Caribbean Region. In addition...low
to moderate concetrations of Saharan Dust will accompany this
drier air mass...leading to hazy skies and limited shower activity.

Then...another tropical wave will cross the Eastern Caribbean
between Sunday and Monday. This will likely result once again in
organized convection across the regional waters and portions of
the islands as the wave passes by.

&&

.AVIATION...Mostly VFR cond expected overnight. After 07/12Z SHRA
to increase across the Leeward islands...USVI and TJSJ as a tropical
wave approaches the region. SHRA/TSRA expected across
interior...western and northwest PR...with possible MVFR cond at
TJBQ and TJMZ between 07/18Z and 07/22Z. Low level winds continue
ESE at 5-10 kts thru 07/12Z...increasing to 10-15 knots with higher
gusts and sea breeze variations thereafter. Winds alf bcm SSW 15 kt
at FL190 and increase to 45-50 kt by FL400 as jet moves around
eastern side of upper level low.

&&

.MARINE...Winds will remain between 10-20 knots most of the week.
Seas will continue between 3-5 feet over the next 5-7 days. No
major changes are expected in the marine conditions over the next
several days. Thunderstorms are possible across the regional waters
today and Wednesday as the tropical wave moves across the local waters.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 89 78 89 78 / 60 60 60 10
STT 88 80 88 81 / 50 70 70 20

Shoutbox

northshoreelise: not on the 12z... Oct 10, 2024 12:15:21 GMT -6

lencast: Really would appreciate it. Thank you, Lena Sept 27, 2024 5:20:46 GMT -6

lencast: I am in Jacksonville, and trying to drive back to New Orleans. Does anyone here know if the I-10 is passable in Lake City and Tallahassee. Sept 27, 2024 5:19:03 GMT -6

tcane: This sure looks like it dies quickly. maybe falling apart before metro New Orleans? Just looking at the lat dozen posts and images here. Sept 10, 2024 11:26:27 GMT -6

rebekahb-Metairie: Looks like it but I wait for the better trained eyes on the forum to respond. Sept 9, 2024 18:52:32 GMT -6

jdschlum-bedico/village of bo: Look further east than the 12z plots don’t it Sept 9, 2024 18:49:34 GMT -6

SKYSUMMIT: Oh sorry guys! I didn't eve see these new messages down here lol Jul 26, 2024 13:14:47 GMT -6

jenniqtip: Just as soon as* sry fat finger Jul 7, 2024 12:53:35 GMT -6

jenniqtip: I donate every year. 😀ju sry as soon as the first area of interest pops up!! I rarely post though so the tag isn’t necessary. Just know I appreciate everything you do!! Jul 7, 2024 12:53:12 GMT -6

larcat: SKYSUMMIT You can slap one on me

Jul 7, 2024 12:12:03 GMT -6

SKYSUMMIT: Thanks laismyhome ! Also, if there is anyone who has donated that has not been given the Supporter tag, please let us know. Jul 7, 2024 4:00:50 GMT -6

laismyhome: Here's a friendly reminder to go make a donation to support this forum that is so full of valuable reliable info. Link to donate is on homepage Jul 2, 2024 9:55:24 GMT -6

Deleted: Ernesto gonna mog hard.
I'm voting Alberto, Ernesto, Rafael and Deshawn Apr 1, 2024 19:15:21 GMT -6

SKYSUMMIT: ShanaBanana Yes...just click the link and then send a PM to either TIgergirl or myself. I can then shoot her a text letting her know and I'll add your supporter tag. THANK YOU!!!! Sept 23, 2023 16:08:37 GMT -6

ShanaBanana: At the risk of this being a dumb question. In order to donate, do I follow the instructions when I click “donate”, and then message tigergirl? I see people comment here that they donated, so I wasn’t sure if that had changed. Sept 20, 2023 10:54:40 GMT -6

SKYSUMMIT: Great to have you back! Sept 11, 2023 12:20:30 GMT -6

virginialee: Hi Skysummit: I was part of this back at the beginning. So happy to be back. Sept 8, 2023 5:08:12 GMT -6

SKYSUMMIT: Thanks to everyone who has recently donated! If I missed anyone and you still need a Supporter Tag, let me know. Sept 7, 2023 13:20:10 GMT -6

akeller11: Just donated Sept 6, 2023 11:11:36 GMT -6

SKYSUMMIT: Thanks guys and gals! You're very much appreciated! Aug 30, 2023 11:48:38 GMT -6

Puerto Rico Weather

Post by cycloneye on May 24, 2016 4:17:18 GMT -6

Post by cycloneye on May 25, 2016 3:52:14 GMT -6

Post by cycloneye on May 26, 2016 4:17:34 GMT -6

Post by cycloneye on May 27, 2016 4:37:12 GMT -6

Post by cycloneye on May 28, 2016 3:58:48 GMT -6

Post by cycloneye on May 29, 2016 13:14:08 GMT -6

Post by cycloneye on May 30, 2016 3:57:14 GMT -6

Post by cycloneye on May 31, 2016 4:10:58 GMT -6

Post by cycloneye on Jun 1, 2016 3:46:28 GMT -6

Post by cycloneye on Jun 2, 2016 3:49:59 GMT -6

Post by cycloneye on Jun 3, 2016 4:20:26 GMT -6

Post by cycloneye on Jun 4, 2016 3:55:19 GMT -6

Post by cycloneye on Jun 5, 2016 4:04:02 GMT -6

Post by cycloneye on Jun 6, 2016 3:53:33 GMT -6

Post by cycloneye on Jun 7, 2016 3:47:20 GMT -6

Shoutbox

Welcome All Members & Guests

Supporter Us & Donate for the 2024 Season

Hurricane Season 2024

Tropical Outlook

Regional Radars

Today's Convective Outlook

Today's Weather

Watches and Warnings