Puerto Rico Weather

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cycloneye
Category 5

Posts: 2,507

Puerto Rico Weather Aug 7, 2016 5:44:23 GMT -6

Quote

Post by cycloneye on Aug 7, 2016 5:44:23 GMT -6

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service San Juan PR
532 AM AST SUN AUG 7 2016

.SYNOPSIS...Surface high pressure will dominate the local area
through mid week. Upper level trough will move across the region
tuesday. Next tropical wave will approach the local area Saturday.

&&

.DISCUSSION...Tropical wave which affected the local area
Saturday...moved away from the local area...leaving partly cloudy
skies with only some passing showers observed across the coastal
waters. High pressure at the surface will dominate the region next
several days. Only light passing showers embedded in the trade
winds are expected to affect the local region from time to time.
Low level moisture is expected to combine with daytime heating and
local effect to aid in the development of showers and
thunderstorms mainly over the interior sections of Puerto Rico
each afternoon. An upper level trough is expected to be located
west of the area by Tuesday and Wednesday which will enhance the
afternoon convection across the area. Next tropical wave it is
expected to affect the region by Saturday.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR conditions are expected to prevail across all taf
sites through 07/17z. Brief periods of MVFR conditions with
mountain obscurations can be expected over TJMZ and TJBQ in TSRA.
Low level winds will be mainly east to southeast at 10 to 15 kts
with higher gusts.

&&

.MARINE...Seas up to 6 feet and winds up to 20 knots are expected.
Small Craft should exercise caution across the Atlantic waters.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 92 82 90 80 / 30 30 30 20
STT 89 81 90 80 / 20 30 30 20

cycloneye
Category 5

Posts: 2,507

Puerto Rico Weather Aug 8, 2016 3:57:04 GMT -6

Quote

Post by cycloneye on Aug 8, 2016 3:57:04 GMT -6

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service San Juan PR
519 AM AST MON AUG 8 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
A surface high pressure to the north of the local islands will
remain in place until tomorrow. Then another surface high
pressure will move across the Western Atlantic and into the
Central Atlantic. At upper levels, a mid-upper high will continue
over the area until Tuesday. As this high moves westward, an
upper low is forecast to amplify over the islands between Tuesday
and Wednesday. Then, the upper level low is expected to move over
Hispanola by Thursday. At this time, another strong tropical wave
is forecast to approach the local area by the upcoming weekend.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Limited shower activity was detected with the Doppler radar
overnight. Most of the activity was observed across the local
Caribbean Waters. Satellite imagery suggested low moisture
concentration across the region, this will result in mostly sunny
to partly cloudy skies with little or no shower activity today.
However, the available moisture in combination with the diurnal
heating and local effects will induce some showers and maybe one
or two thunderstorms across the west and central sections of
Puerto Rico during the afternoon. In addition, hazy skies are
likely today and Tuesday, as model guidance and satellite products
suggest the arrival of Saharan Dust Particles during these days.
Also, warm and hot days are likely, with maximum coastal
temperatures ranging between the low and mid 90s.

An upper low is expected to move through the local area on
Wednesday into Thursday, which may cause an increase in shower and
thunderstorm activity, but the limiting factor will be the
available moisture, which is forecast to remain low. The next
tropical wave will reach the region by the upcoming weekend,
increasing the moisture content, to enhance shower and
thunderstorm activity.

&&

.AVIATION...
VFR conditions to prevail across all TAF sites...except
after around 08/17z in western PR where isolated MVFR conditions
with mountain obscurations can be expected. Low level winds will
be mainly SE at 10 to 15 kts with higher gusts.

&&

.MARINE...
Moderate risk of rip currents remains across many of the local
beaches. During the afternoon hours, small craft operators should
exercise caution across the Northern coastal waters of Puerto Rico
due to winds up to 20 knots. Elsewhere, mariners can expect seas
up to 5 feet and winds around 15 knots.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 91 81 90 79 / 30 30 30 30
STT 90 82 90 79 / 30 30 30 20

cycloneye
Category 5

Posts: 2,507

Puerto Rico Weather Aug 9, 2016 4:13:37 GMT -6

Quote

Post by cycloneye on Aug 9, 2016 4:13:37 GMT -6

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service San Juan PR
547 AM AST TUE AUG 9 2016

.SYNOPSIS...At upper levels, a TUTT low will move over the area
today, then will continue it path across the Hispaniola and over
the Bahamas between Thursday and Friday. At mid levels, a tropical
wave with plenty of moisture is forecast to move across the local
area by Saturday. At the surface, a high pressure to the north of
the local islands will remain in place until tonight. Then another
surface high pressure will move across the Western Atlantic and
into the Central Atlantic.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
A surge of moisture moved across the islands, as a result the
Doppler radar detected an increment in passing showers overnight.
Although moderate passing showers were detected from time to time
over land, the rainfall accumulations were not significant. For
this morning, expect some passing showers mainly over the waters
and the windward sections of PR and the USVI. Then during the
afternoon, the proximity of a TUTT Low, and the available moisture
will combine with diurnal effects to produce showers and
thunderstorms, mainly over the interior and southwestern sections
of PR. In addition, streamers could form off the USVI and La
Sierra de Luquillo to create periods of moderate to locally heavy
showers near those areas. Also, another day with temperatures
around the low 90s is possible today.

Model guidance continues to forecast the arrival of a tropical
wave with plenty of moisture by the Saturday. If it is correct,
moisture convergence and atmospheric instability could enhance the
potential for showers and thunderstorms across the islands,
increasing the potential for flooding across the region.

&&

.AVIATION...
Mainly VFR conditions expected to prevail across the local flying
area. Light passing showers in trade winds could briefly affect
the USVI/Eastern PR terminals this morning. After 9/17Z, SHRA/TSRA
expected to develop over the interior/west sections of PR,
impacting mainly TJBQ and TJMZ. Surface winds will be from the
east at 10-15 knots after 09/12z with sea breeze variations after
09/14z.

&&

.MARINE...
The local buoy network continues to indicate a small northeasterly
swell across the Atlantic Ocean and Caribbean passages. It is
forecast to stay across these sections at least until Wednesday.
However, mariners can expect seas below 5 feet and winds below 18
knots. On the other hand, beach goers can expect a moderate risk
of rip currents across many of the local beaches. A tropical wave
is forecast to deteriorate the weather conditions by Saturday.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 90 79 90 80 / 20 30 30 20
STT 91 79 89 79 / 30 30 30 20

cycloneye
Category 5

Posts: 2,507

Puerto Rico Weather Aug 10, 2016 3:56:08 GMT -6

Quote

Post by cycloneye on Aug 10, 2016 3:56:08 GMT -6

Area Forecast Discussion...CORRECTED
National Weather Service San Juan PR
530 AM AST WED AUG 10 2016

.SYNOPSIS...An upper level trough across the eastern Caribbean
will continue to shift west during the next few days. As this
feature moves west, a short wave ridge will build in from the
east. Ridge aloft will hold over the forecast area Friday through
at least the upcoming weekend. A low level disturbance will
continue to move across the local islands today. The next tropical
wave is forecast to move across the eastern Caribbean Saturday.

&&

.DISCUSSION...Partly cloudy skies prevailed across the local
islands overnight and early this morning. Passing showers were
noted across the coastal waters...with some of them affecting the
U.S. Virgin Islands as well as the eastern half of Puerto Rico.
Minimum temperatures were in the upper 70s to low 80s and the
winds were generally from the east at 10 mph or less.

Passing showers and isolated thunderstorms possible will continue
to prevail across the U.S. Virgin Islands as well as eastern
Puerto Rico throughout the day as an induced low level disturbance
combined with an upper level trough moves across the area. This
will also result in shower and thunder development over and north
of the Cordillera Central late this morning and afternoon,
including portions of the San Juan Metro Area. A decreasing trend
in available moisture is expected across the forecast area as soon
as tonight and continue through Friday. Although limited available
moisture will prevail Thu-Fri, locally induced afternoon showers
and thunderstorms are still expected each day. The chance for
shower and thunder activity will improve during the weekend as a
tropical wave enters the forecast area.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR conditions expected to prevail thru 10/16Z with
brief SHRA over the local islands causing VCSH. SHRA/TSRA...mainly
across W-PR after 10/16Z likely affecting TJMZ and TJBQ.
Therefore...MVFR conds are possible possible and possibly VCTS at
TJSJ between 18Z-22Z. Sfc winds will be from the East at 10-15 kt
shifting to the ESE around 10/18Z with sea breeze variations.

&&

.MARINE...Seas up to 5 feet and winds up to 20 knots are expected
today across the regional waters. Small craft are urged to exercise
caution across the Atlc coastal waters. A small northeasterly swell
will continue to affect the local waters today. The next tropical
wave is forecast to move across the local waters Saturday.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 90 79 90 80 / 40 30 30 20
STT 91 80 91 81 / 40 20 20 20

&&

cycloneye
Category 5

Posts: 2,507

Puerto Rico Weather Aug 11, 2016 4:18:22 GMT -6

Quote

Post by cycloneye on Aug 11, 2016 4:18:22 GMT -6

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service San Juan PR
515 AM AST THU AUG 11 2016

.SYNOPSIS...Weak upper level ridge will build across the forecast
area from the east as a trough aloft continues to shift west.
Ridge aloft will then hold over the forecast area Friday through
at least the upcoming weekend. As this feature moves away, another
upper level trough will establish across the area early next week.
Next tropical wave is forecast to move across the eastern
Caribbean Saturday.

&&

.DISCUSSION...Although trough aloft will continue to move away
from the local islands today, the proximity of this feature
combined with available low level moisture will result in passing
showers across the U.S. Virgin Islands as well as eastern Puerto
Rico in the morning, followed by shower and thunderstorm
development over and north of the Cordillera Central late this
morning and afternoon. Somewhat drier weather conditions are
expected across the area on Friday under the upper level ridge
and associated cap. However, the available moisture across the
area will combine with local effect and diurnal heating to result
in showers and a few thunderstorms in the afternoon hours mainly
across W PR.

Latest guidance suggests precipitable water across the local islands
near the normal values with the best moisture advection remaining
across the Caribbean waters. At this time, the highest chance for
shower and thunderstorm activity is still expected Saturday afternoon
through Sunday morning as a tropical wave and its associated
moisture reaches the local islands. This will bring precipitable
water to above normal values. As this wave moves away Sunday night,
a drier air mass will encompass the local islands with a fair
weather pattern expected Mon-Wed.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR conditions expected to prevail through 11/16Z with
brief SHRA over the local islands causing VCSH. SHRA/TSRA...mainly
across W-PR after 11/16Z likely to affect TJMZ causing MVFR conds.
VCTS expected at TJBQ and possible at TJPS and TJSJ. Sfc winds will
be from the East at 10-15 kt and gusty, shifting to the ENE after
11/18Z with sea breeze variations.

&&

.MARINE...Seas up to 5 feet and winds up to 15 knots are expected
today across the regional waters. A surface high pressure north of
the region will continue to promote moderate easterly winds during
the next few days. Winds will become east southeast the upcoming
weekend as the high pressure shifts into the northeastern atlantic
and a tropical wave moves across the local waters. As this wave
moves across the area, shower and thunder activity will increase
mainly across the Caribbean waters.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 89 80 90 79 / 30 20 20 20
STT 91 80 91 79 / 20 20 20 30

cycloneye
Category 5

Posts: 2,507

Puerto Rico Weather Aug 12, 2016 4:12:06 GMT -6

Quote

Post by cycloneye on Aug 12, 2016 4:12:06 GMT -6

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service San Juan PR
500 AM AST FRI AUG 12 2016

.SYNOPSIS...Ridge aloft will continue to build across the
forecast area today and hold through at least early Sunday. As
this feature moves away early next week, another upper level
trough will establish across the area. Next tropical wave is
forecast to move across the eastern Caribbean Saturday.

&&

.DISCUSSION...Partly to variably cloudy skies with a few passing
showers were observed during the overnight and early morning hours
across the local area. Most of the showers were over the waters
but some of them affected land areas leaving minimal accumulations.
The overnight minimum temperatures were in the mid to upper 70s
across the lower elevations and in the mid to upper 60s across the
higher elevations.

An upper level trough north of Hispaniola will continue to pull
moisture across the eastern Caribbean with the best moisture
advection remaining across the Caribbean waters and south of the
local islands. Over the islands, precipitable water is expected
to be near normal values through at least Saturday afternoon.
Although the building ridge will prevail today, there is enough
moisture to combine with local effects and diurnal heating to
result in shower and thunderstorm development across the southwest
quadrant of Puerto Rico late this morning and afternoon.

Environmental conditions are expected to become favorable for
convection as a tropical wave moves across the area Saturday. The
highest chance for shower and isolated thunder activity at this
time is expected mainly across the Caribbean waters...USVI and E
PR in the late morning hours, spreading across W and NW PR in the
afternoon. Moisture associated with this wave will prevail through
at least Sunday morning. As this wave moves away, a drier air mass
will encompass the local islands Sunday afternoon with a fair
weather pattern expected Sunday afternoon thru Wednesday. Some
hazy skies are possible late Sunday thru Monday as SAL reaches the
forecast area.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR conditions expected to prevail through 12/16Z with
brief SHRA over the local islands causing VCSH. SHRA/TSRA...mainly
across W-PR after 11/16Z likely to affect TJMZ causing MVFR conds.
VCTS expected at TJBQ and possible at TJPS and TJSJ. Sfc winds will
be from the East at 10-15 kt and gusty, shifting to the ENE after
12/18Z with sea breeze variations.

&&

.MARINE...Seas continued at 4 feet or less and winds from the
east at 15 knots. Tropical wave still expected to move across the
Regional waters over the upcoming weekend and this will bring a
slight increase in local winds and seas.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 89 79 88 80 / 20 20 60 40
STT 90 79 89 80 / 20 30 50 40

&&

cycloneye
Category 5

Posts: 2,507

Puerto Rico Weather Aug 13, 2016 4:07:28 GMT -6

Quote

Post by cycloneye on Aug 13, 2016 4:07:28 GMT -6

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service San Juan PR
427 AM AST SAT AUG 13 2016

.SYNOPSIS...Tropical wave expected to affect the local islands
today, bringing an increase in overall moisture as well as an
increase in shower and thunderstorm activity starting from the
early morning hours. Surface high pressure across the eastern
Atlantic will promote easterly winds through the weekend before a
surface high pressure develops across the western Atlantic early
in the upcoming workweek but continuing to promote easterly winds.
Upper low over the Bahamas will continue to move west wile another
upper low to the northeast of the leeward islands moves west and
passes just north of the local islands early next week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...Showers and isolated thunderstorms associated with
the approaching tropical wave are already being detected by the
doppler radar at this hour. Mostly over the Caribbean waters and
around Saint Croix so far but this activity is expected to
continue moving west to west northwest and affect the rest of the
local waters and islands as the day progresses. Showers will start
affecting the USVI as well as Vieques and Culebra very early in
the morning then gradually affect eastern PR. These morning
showers are expected to be passing showers but the number of
showers that are present will keep some areas with locally
numerous showers. As the day heats up the cloudiness and shower
activity is expected to start migrating west northwest over PR,
eventually causing numerous showers and scattered thunderstorms
across the interior, north, and west sections of PR. Some of
these showers and thunderstorms could cause urban and small stream
flooding.

Drier air is expected to move in on Sunday, which means that
mainly locally induced showers and thunderstorms are expected on
Sunday afternoon across the northwestern quadrant of PR. Saharan
Dust will move in on Monday into Tuesday, which could limit the
shower activity and thunderstorm development over the local
islands. However, it is still possible to have thunderstorms in
the afternoon across western PR.

Other than locally induced showers and thunderstorms, none of the
long range models have anything moving in that would cause
exceptional amounts of rain through this upcoming week with the
exception of a small area of moisture that is expected to move in
on Thursday.

&&

.AVIATION...Periods of MVFR or even IFR will remain possible at the
USVI as well as PR terminals through the day as a tropical
wave/easterly disturbance moves across the eastern Caribbean.
SHRA/TSRA in and around IST/ISX and JSJ in the morning, spreading
across W PR in the afternoon. Low level winds will be from the E to
SE at 15-20 kt but higher in TSRA. Prevailing VFR at the leeward
terminals.

&&

.MARINE...Seas of 2 to 4 feet expected today and tonight with
winds generally 17 knots or less. There is a moderate risk of rip
currents across NW-PR, NE-Culebra and E-St. Croix. Showers and
thunderstorms across the local waters could be hazardous as it
could have occasional lightning, gusty winds, and heavy rain.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 89 78 90 79 / 60 30 30 10
STT 89 79 89 79 / 60 50 50 20

cycloneye
Category 5

Posts: 2,507

Puerto Rico Weather Aug 14, 2016 4:13:25 GMT -6

Quote

Post by cycloneye on Aug 14, 2016 4:13:25 GMT -6

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service San Juan PR
453 AM AST SUN AUG 14 2016

.SYNOPSIS...Lingering moisture will cause isolated to scattered
showers to continue across the local area through the morning
hours, then showers and thunderstorms expected to develop across
the western sections of PR. Surface high pressure across the
eastern Atlantic will promote easterly winds through the weekend
before a surface high pressure develops across the western
Atlantic early in the upcoming workweek but continuing to promote
easterly winds. Upper low to the northeast of the leeward islands
will move west and pass just north of the local islands on Monday.

&&

.DISCUSSION...Lingering moisture is causing showers across the
local area. These morning showers are expected to be brief but in
some areas, especially eastern PR, showers could be locally
scattered and that area has already had some good accumulations
with over a quarter of an inch of rain in some areas during the
overnight hours. As the day heats up, the cloudiness and shower
activity is expected to start increasing this afternoon,
eventually causing numerous showers and scattered thunderstorms
across the interior, north, and west sections of PR. Some of these
showers and thunderstorms could cause urban and small stream
flooding.

Drier air is expected to move in on Monday through Wednesday,
which means that mainly locally induced showers and thunderstorms
are expected. Saharan Dust will move in on Monday into Tuesday,
which could limit the shower activity and thunderstorm development
over the local islands. However, it is still possible to have
thunderstorms in the afternoon across western PR.

Latest guidance suggests that a tropical wave will be approaching
the local islands by Thursday. This tropical wave should bring
good moisture and the activity of showers and thunderstorms may
increase once again. Drier air returning to the area on Friday.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR conds expected to prevail at all TAF sites through
14/16z with -SHRA in and around JSJ/IST and ISX. Aft 14/16...
SHRA/TSRA development expected ovr NW PR and this may result in
periods of MVFR conds at JBQ/JMZ till 14/22z. Low level winds will
be from the E to SE at around 10-15kts.

&&

.MARINE...Seas of 2 to 4 feet expected today and tonight with
winds generally 17 knots or less. There is a moderate risk of rip
currents across North Central-PR and E-St. Croix.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 89 78 90 79 / 20 10 10 10
STT 89 80 90 79 / 30 20 20 20

cycloneye
Category 5

Posts: 2,507

Puerto Rico Weather Aug 15, 2016 4:16:47 GMT -6

Quote

Post by cycloneye on Aug 15, 2016 4:16:47 GMT -6

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service San Juan PR
452 AM AST MON AUG 15 2016

.SYNOPSIS...Mid to upper level trough will retrogress across the
Western Atlantic over the next few days. This will keep the atmosphere
somewhat unstable...however moisture will be below normal. As a
result...the shower coverage will be mainly isolated to scattered
through midweek. At low levels...high pressure just northeast of
the region will maintain a moderate easterly flow across the forecast
area. Deeper moisture is expected on Thursday with the next tropical
wave.

&&

.DISCUSSION...Fair weather conditions will prevail across most of
the islands today. A generally dry air mass with Saharan dust
particles will help to inhibit the shower development across most
of the area. However...trough aloft will allow some thunderstorms
to develop across the Western Interior and West portions of Puerto
Rico each afternoon. A few isolated showers expected elsewhere...
including the U.S. Virgin Islands. No significant changes in the
weather pattern is forecast through midweek.

Then...the next tropical wave will cross the local area on Thursday.
Moisture and instability is forecast to increase late Wednesday
night into Thursday as the wave approaches from the east. Shower
and thunderstorm activity will likely increase...especially on
Thursday. Moisture will peak across the area on Thursday morning
when precipitable water values approaches to 2 inches. Drier and
more stable air mass with some Saharan Dust will follow the wave.
As a result...fair weather pattern will likely return to the local
islands on Friday. Limited shower activity will prevail between
Friday and Saturday as drier than normal air mass dominates the
region.

&&

.AVIATION...Mainly VFR conditions expected to prevail at all TAF
sites through the forecast period. However, between 16z-22z
SHRA/TSRA development is expected across the western interior of PR,
impacting mainly TJMZ/TJBQ with MVFR conditions and mtn top obscd.
Low level winds will be from the E-ESE at 10-18 kts with sea breeze
variations after 14z.

&&

.MARINE...Seas of 4-6 feet will continue across the Caribbean
Waters and Mona Passage through Tuesday. Elsewhere...mainly seas
of 3-5 feet will prevail most of the week. Moderate easterly winds
will persist through through the end of the work week. No major
changes to the marine conditions are expected over the next 5-7
days. Small Craft Advisories are not anticipated.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 90 80 90 81 / 10 10 20 20
STT 90 79 90 79 / 20 20 20 30

cycloneye
Category 5

Posts: 2,507

Puerto Rico Weather Aug 16, 2016 4:14:13 GMT -6

Quote

Post by cycloneye on Aug 16, 2016 4:14:13 GMT -6

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service San Juan PR
500 AM AST TUE AUG 16 2016

.SYNOPSIS...Upper level ridge will build over the region as the
mid to upper level trough/TUTT will continue to retrogress across
the Western Atlantic. This will lead to stable conditions across
the area through Wednesday. Tropical wave near 50 West this
morning will increase the shower and thunderstorm activity across
the local islands on Thursday. Drier and more stable air mass will
dominate the region Friday and Saturday.

&&

.DISCUSSION...Satellite precipitable water analysis indicated drier
than normal air mass upstream of the forecast area. As a result...
a fair weather pattern is expected to prevail across most of the
islands over the next few days. Brief morning showers will be possible
across local waters and the windward areas at times. Showers and
isolated thunderstorms will develop over Western Puerto Rico during
the afternoon hours. Elsewhere...mostly sunny to partly cloudy
skies with limited shower activity are anticipated for the rest
of the forecast area.

The next tropical wave will cross the local area on Thursday.
Moisture and instability is forecast to increase late Wednesday
night into Thursday as the wave approaches from the east. Moisture
will peak across the area on Thursday morning when precipitable
water values approaches to 2 inches. Therefore...a few rounds of
showers and thunderstorms will affect Puerto Rico and the U.S.
Virgin Islands during the day on Thursday. Drier and more stable
air mass with some Saharan Dust is likely after the wave passage.
As a result...a fair weather pattern will return to the local
islands on Friday and Saturday. A slightly increase in the shower
activity is forecast on Sunday and Monday as a few bands of
moisture embedded in the trade winds will move across the local
region.

&&

.AVIATION...Mainly VFR conditions expected to prevail at all TAF
sites through the forecast period. Low level winds from the east at
10-18 kts except for sea breeze variations AFT 14z. SHRA/ISOLD TSRA
16/18-22Z ovr western PR, impacting mainly JMZ with MVFR conds.

&&

.MARINE...Winds of 10-20 knots and seas of 3-5 feet can be
expected across most of the local waters...except the Caribbean
Waters and Mona Passage where seas up to 6 feet are possible
through this evening. No major changes to the marine conditions
are expected over the next 5-7 days. Small Craft Advisories are
not anticipated through the forecast period.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 89 80 89 80 / 30 40 40 50
STT 90 80 90 80 / 40 40 40 50

cycloneye
Category 5

Posts: 2,507

Puerto Rico Weather Aug 17, 2016 4:13:23 GMT -6

Quote

Post by cycloneye on Aug 17, 2016 4:13:23 GMT -6

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service San Juan PR
534 AM AST WED AUG 17 2016

.SYNOPSIS...Tropical wave will move across the forecast area late
this evening through Thursday. Upper ridge will continue to move
west just over/north of the area through Friday. At the same time
an upper trough moves over the Caribbean waters. Fair weather
expected through the weekend. However, locally induced afternoon
showers are expected each day. Another tropical wave is forecast
to enter the local area by early next week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...Light trade wind showers were observed across the
forecast area during the overnight hours. A few reached the USVI
and coastal areas of eastern PR, leaving minor rainfall
accumulations. Mostly clear skies prevailed across the western
half of PR. For Today, drier air ahead of the tropical wave will
limit shower activity across the islands. However, diurnally
induced afternoon convection can`t be ruled out across western
PR. For tonight into Thursday, cloudiness and shower activity will
increase as the weak tropical wave moves across the islands.

PWAT drops once again after the passage of the wave and fair
weather conditions are expected across the islands through early
in the weekend. However, typical trade wind showers during the
night/early morning hours and diurnally induced afternoon convection
over the islands is expected each day. A surge in moisture is
expected by early/mid next week due to a tropical wave.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR conds expected at most of the TAF sites thru the
forecast period. Some SHRA and ISOLD TSRA possible near TJMZ and
TJBQ between 17/17Z-21Z. This may lead to brief MVFR conds at times
during the afternoon hours. Mountain Obscurations are also possible
over the western interior of PR. East to East-Southeast winds of 10-
20 kts will prevail below FL120.

&&

.MARINE...Seas should continue under 5 feet for the next several
days. Easterlies will continue at 10-15 knots, and up to 20 knots
at times across the near shore Atlantic/Caribbean waters and Mona
passage where small crafts should continue to exercise caution.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 89 81 91 81 / 20 50 50 10
STT 90 81 90 81 / 20 50 50 20

cycloneye
Category 5

Posts: 2,507

Puerto Rico Weather Aug 18, 2016 4:11:00 GMT -6

Quote

Post by cycloneye on Aug 18, 2016 4:11:00 GMT -6

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service San Juan PR
529 AM AST THU AUG 18 2016

.SYNOPSIS...Weak tropical wave and associated shower activity will
continue to move across the local area through this evening. SAL
follows the wave lingering through the weekend. Upper ridge will
continue to move west through the weekend as another ridge builds
from the east by early next week. Another tropical wave is
forecast to enter the local area by early next week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...Band of moisture associated to a tropical wave
reached the local area during the overnight hours. Scattered to
locally numerous light showers were observed mainly over both
Atlantic and Caribbean waters and sections of eastern PR. For this
afternoon, showers and thunderstorms are expected mainly over the
western sections of Puerto Rico and over San Juan and vicinity.
Partly cloudy skies and isolated showers are expected across the
U.S. Virgin Islands.

Moisture decreases quickly after the passage of the wave as a more
stable and drier air mas with Saharan dust filters through the
weekend. Fair weather conditions are expected across the islands
for the next few days. However, typical trade wind showers during
the night/early morning hours and diurnally induced afternoon
convection over the islands is expected each day. A small surge
in moisture from the northeast is expected on Sunday/Monday. Next
tropical wave is forecast to reach the local area by Wednesday.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR conditions still expected at most of the TAF sites
through 18/12Z. Approaching tropical wave will bring some SHRA to
the local area after 18/04Z or so causing VCSH at the
TNCM/TKPK/TIST/TISX/TJSJ terminals overnight. Easterly winds at 5-
10kt expected overnight. SHRA/TSRA developing affecting PR after
18/12Z with SHRA likely at TJSJ thereafter. SHRA/TSRA in and around
TJMZ and TJBQ after 18/17Z.

&&

.MARINE...Seas between 3-5 feet are expected through the rest of
the work week, decreasing to 2-4 feet during the weekend.
Easterlies will continue a 10-15 knots and up to 20 across the
coastal Atlantic waters. Moderate risk of rip currents expected
mainly across the Atlantic coastline.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 91 80 91 80 / 60 0 10 10
STT 91 81 91 80 / 40 20 20 20

cycloneye
Category 5

Posts: 2,507

Puerto Rico Weather Aug 19, 2016 3:59:10 GMT -6

Quote

Post by cycloneye on Aug 19, 2016 3:59:10 GMT -6

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service San Juan PR
446 AM AST FRI AUG 19 2016

.SYNOPSIS...Surface high pressure ridge will hold across the West
and Central Atlantic today and into the weekend. The prevailing
easterly trade winds are to become slightly more northeasterly by
late Saturday, as Tropical Storm Fiona rides the southern periphery
of the ridge across the Atlantic and induces the northeasterly
flow across the region. Recent model guidance continue to suggest
a surge of moisture to arrive across the area from the northeast
by early Sunday into Monday. This will be fragments of moisture
from the distant Tropical Storm which is still forecast to track
Northwest then well north of the forecast area.

In the meantime mid to upper level ridge will remain in place to
maintain subsidence and a strong cap inversion across the region
through the upcoming weekend. A weakly induced easterly wave now
near 57 west this morning is expected to cross into the southeastern
Caribbean and continue westward through Saturday. However, this
feature will move well south of the area having no effect on the
region.

&&

.DISCUSSION...Mostly fair and stable weather conditions expected
to prevail across the region today, as strong ridging aloft and
subsidence along with fairly dry airmass will limit any convective
development today and into the weekend. No significant change is
expected in this weather pattern at least until Sunday into Monday
as the previously mentioned surge of moisture will move across the
Atlantic and arrive across the forecast area. This will bring a
brief increase in moisture which will aid in periods of early
morning showers followed by a slightly better chance for afternoon
convection over parts of the islands at least until late Monday.
Drier condition once again by Tuesday with increasing moisture
during the latter part of next week as a strong tropical wave is
forecast to approach the Lesser Antilles and a Tutt low and
associated trough shift will westward across the region
destabilizing the mid to upper levels and providing support for
the approaching wave. More on this feature to come as will see how
this unfolds with time and models become more consistent.

&&

.AVIATION....Mostly VFR conditions are expected across the local
flying area as drier air continues to move across the region. Winds
will continue from the East Northeast increasing to around 15 knots
after 19/14Z. Chance of rain in the vicinity of TJMZ/TJBQ after
19/18Z.

&&

.MARINE...Marine conditions continue to be just under small craft exercise
caution criteria, except for brief periods of winds up to 20 knots just
off the north and south coasts of Puerto Rico. Condtions are expected
to diminish over the weekend. Small craft advisories are not expected
through Wednesday.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 90 79 90 81 / 10 20 20 10
STT 91 80 91 79 / 10 20 20 20

cycloneye
Category 5

Posts: 2,507

Puerto Rico Weather Aug 20, 2016 4:24:16 GMT -6

Quote

Post by cycloneye on Aug 20, 2016 4:24:16 GMT -6

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service San Juan PR
447 AM AST SAT AUG 20 2016

.SYNOPSIS...A surface high pressure ridge will lift farther north
of the region through Sunday to maintain light to moderate easterly
trade winds across the region. Winds are to gradually increase once
again by the middle of next week as the local pressure gradient
tightens in advance of a tropical wave forecast to move across
the eastern Caribbean. A mid to upper level ridge will continue to
hold over the region during the rest of the weekend. Therefore a
relatively dry and stable air mass will continue across much of
the region through at least Sunday.

&&

.DISCUSSION... Generally fair and stable weather pattern will
prevail across the entire region during the rest of the weekend,
as the mid to upper level ridge with a dry air mass will dominate
the local weather conditions and limit convective activity.
However, expect a few early morning showers across the windward
sections of PR and the coastal waters surrounding the other
islands. This will be followed by locally induced afternoon
showers/ or an isolated thunderstorms mainly across West PR. Warm
and hot temperatures are likely for the rest of the weekend.

Recent model guidance continue to suggest the arrival of a surge
of moisture in the northeasterly trade winds by late Sunday or
early monday. As a result expect a slight increase in low level
moisture which will allow for a better chance for increased
cloudiness and afternoon convection by early next week.

A broad area of low pressure and associated tropical wave now
located some 700 miles southwest of Cabo Verde is being followed
by the National Hurricane Center Miami Fl. For additional information
please refer to the Tropical Weather Outlook and the tropical
products issued by the National Hurricane Center. In the meantime...
recent models guidance continued to suggest this feature as a tropical
wave which should enter the eastern caribbean during the latter part
of next week. Models guidance also suggest a significant increase
in moisture and instability with PWAT values to increase to near
2.5 inches with this approaching wave. Stay tuned for more on this.

&&

.AVIATION...Mostly VFR conditions expected across the local flying
area during the forecast period. Winds will become from the east
increasing to around 15KT after 20/14Z with sea breeze variations.
SHRA/TSRA in the vicinity of TJMZ and TJBQ after 20/18Z.

&&

.MARINE...Mariners can expect seas below 5 feet and winds below
17 knots with fairly tranquil seas for the rest of the weekend.
For now precautionary statements and small craft advisories are
not expected through at least Tuesday of next week.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 91 79 89 80 / 10 20 20 40
STT 91 79 89 78 / 10 30 30 40

cycloneye
Category 5

Posts: 2,507

Puerto Rico Weather Aug 21, 2016 4:20:32 GMT -6

Quote

Post by cycloneye on Aug 21, 2016 4:20:32 GMT -6

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service San Juan PR
531 AM AST SUN AUG 21 2016

.SYNOPSIS... Weak ridge aloft will hold across the forecast area
at least until Tuesday. Surface ridge across the West Atlantic
and an induced trough northeast of the area will maintain a light
east to northeast wind flow across the region through Monday.
Recent satellite imagery showed a surge of moisture accompanying
the surface trough moving west southwest with the prevailing
northeast wind flow.

Farther east of the islands...A broad area of low pressure and
associated tropical wave was located across the tropical atlantic
with axis near 40W. This feature will continue westward and is expected
to reach the Lesser Antilles by late Tuesday or Wednesday based on
the present movement and model guidance. Ahead and accompanying this
wave is a fairly large area of Saharan air and suspended dust particulates
with very disorganized convection at this time. Based on latest info
from the National Hurricane Center any development of this system during
the next couple of days should be slow to occur due to its large size
and proximity to the dry air.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Expect a few quick passing showers mainly across the coastal waters
during the early morning hours. The previously mentioned surge of
moisture accompanying the induced surface trough will move across
the region later today and into the evening hours. As a result expect
an increase in low level moisture across the islands. This moisture
advection should allow a better chance for increased afternoon cloudiness
and overnight convection across the regional waters and portions of
the islands. Afternoon showers and isolated thunderstorms should
be focused mainly over parts of the east and central interior and
west sections of Puerto Rico.

Improving conditions expected by late Monday and Tuesday, as drier
air and a more stable airmass will spread across the region in
advance of the tropical wave now forecast to enter the eastern
Caribbean late Tuesday or early Wednesday. The wave is then expected
to bring a significant increase in tropical moisture and instability
to the region as is moves across the forecast area. Model guidance
suggests increasing PWAT values to increase to near 2.5 inches by early
Thursday. Should this pattern continue to unfold, expect increased
instability and good moisture convergence across the forecast
area by mid week and during the latter part of the work week. The
increasing moisture advection and chance for enhanced showers and
thunderstorms across the islands will also increase potential for
good wetting rains and localized flooding situations. Stay tuned
as we will continue to closely monitor this feature.

&&

.AVIATION...Mostly VFR conditions expected across the local flying
area. However, vicinity SHRA are expected across the Leeward and
USVI taf sites thru at least 21/14Z. after 21/15, moisture will
increase over PR producing SHRA over interior and west portions.
SHRA/TSRA with mountain obscuration are expected after 21/17Z across
TJMZ/TJBQ. Winds will become mostly from the east increasing to
around 15 knots with sea breeze variations after 21/15Z.

&&

.MARINE...Seas generally expected to be between 2-4 feet today
and winds will be between 10-15 knots for the next few days. An
increase in Winds and Seas is expected during the latter part of
the workweek as a tropical wave is forecast to move across the
regional waters. By then precautionary statements or small craft
advisories may be required for some areas. Please refer to the
latest coastal waters forecast issued by WFO San Juan PR for any
additional information.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 89 80 91 78 / 20 40 40 30
STT 89 79 89 78 / 30 40 40 30

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Puerto Rico Weather

Post by cycloneye on Aug 7, 2016 5:44:23 GMT -6

Post by cycloneye on Aug 8, 2016 3:57:04 GMT -6

Post by cycloneye on Aug 9, 2016 4:13:37 GMT -6

Post by cycloneye on Aug 10, 2016 3:56:08 GMT -6

Post by cycloneye on Aug 11, 2016 4:18:22 GMT -6

Post by cycloneye on Aug 12, 2016 4:12:06 GMT -6

Post by cycloneye on Aug 13, 2016 4:07:28 GMT -6

Post by cycloneye on Aug 14, 2016 4:13:25 GMT -6

Post by cycloneye on Aug 15, 2016 4:16:47 GMT -6

Post by cycloneye on Aug 16, 2016 4:14:13 GMT -6

Post by cycloneye on Aug 17, 2016 4:13:23 GMT -6

Post by cycloneye on Aug 18, 2016 4:11:00 GMT -6

Post by cycloneye on Aug 19, 2016 3:59:10 GMT -6

Post by cycloneye on Aug 20, 2016 4:24:16 GMT -6

Post by cycloneye on Aug 21, 2016 4:20:32 GMT -6

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