INVEST 96L Discussion Thread - East Atlantic

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Deleted

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INVEST 96L Discussion Thread - East Atlantic Aug 29, 2013 19:28:46 GMT -6

Post by Deleted on Aug 29, 2013 19:28:46 GMT -6

This one appears not be a CONUS threat as all signs are for a recurve. Only land threat will be to the CV islands.

TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE MESSAGE
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
0118 UTC FRI AUG 30 2013

DISCLAIMER...NUMERICAL MODELS ARE SUBJECT TO LARGE ERRORS.
PLEASE REFER TO NHC OFFICIAL FORECASTS FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
AND SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE INFORMATION.

ATLANTIC OBJECTIVE AIDS FOR

DISTURBANCE INVEST (AL962013) 20130830 0000 UTC

...00 HRS... ...12 HRS... ...24 HRS... ...36 HRS...
130830 0000 130830 1200 130831 0000 130831 1200

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 14.5N 15.5W 14.9N 16.9W 15.7N 18.7W 16.7N 21.2W
BAMD 14.5N 15.5W 14.9N 18.2W 15.2N 20.8W 15.6N 23.6W
BAMM 14.5N 15.5W 14.9N 17.9W 15.3N 20.3W 15.8N 23.1W
LBAR 14.5N 15.5W 15.2N 18.2W 16.0N 21.3W 16.9N 24.6W
SHIP 20KTS 26KTS 31KTS 39KTS
DSHP 20KTS 28KTS 33KTS 42KTS

...48 HRS... ...72 HRS... ...96 HRS... ..120 HRS...
130901 0000 130902 0000 130903 0000 130904 0000

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 17.9N 24.0W 20.8N 30.1W 24.5N 36.1W 28.0N 41.5W
BAMD 15.9N 26.4W 16.6N 31.6W 19.1N 35.8W 24.5N 39.5W
BAMM 16.2N 26.0W 17.2N 31.4W 19.8N 36.4W 24.2N 41.4W
LBAR 18.3N 28.1W 22.0N 33.0W 28.7N 36.0W 31.9N 34.1W
SHIP 46KTS 60KTS 62KTS 58KTS
DSHP 48KTS 62KTS 64KTS 60KTS

...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR = 14.5N LONCUR = 15.5W DIRCUR = 280DEG SPDCUR = 13KT
LATM12 = 14.0N LONM12 = 12.9W DIRM12 = 284DEG SPDM12 = 13KT
LATM24 = 13.2N LONM24 = 9.0W
WNDCUR = 20KT RMAXWD = 120NM WNDM12 = 20KT
CENPRS = 1009MB OUTPRS = 1011MB OUTRAD = 150NM SDEPTH = S
RD34NE = 0NM RD34SE = 0NM RD34SW = 0NM RD34NW = 0NM

Last Edit: Aug 29, 2013 20:16:36 GMT -6 by SKYSUMMIT

Deleted Posts: 0	INVEST 96L Discussion Thread - East Atlantic Aug 29, 2013 20:00:53 GMT -6 Select Post Deselect Post Link to Post Back to Top Post by Deleted on Aug 29, 2013 20:00:53 GMT -6

Deleted Posts: 0	INVEST 96L Discussion Thread - East Atlantic Aug 29, 2013 21:39:54 GMT -6 Select Post Deselect Post Link to Post Back to Top Post by Deleted on Aug 29, 2013 21:39:54 GMT -6 SSD floater is up. www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/floaters/96L/96L_floater.html
	Last Edit: Aug 30, 2013 4:17:40 GMT -6 by Deleted

thibodauxwx
GCWX Supporter

Posts: 3,537

INVEST 96L Discussion Thread - East Atlantic Aug 30, 2013 7:12:13 GMT -6

Post by thibodauxwx on Aug 30, 2013 7:12:13 GMT -6

ZCZC MIATWOAT ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM CCA

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK...CORRECTED
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 AM EDT FRI AUG 30 2013

CORRECTED TO ADD...HIGH CHANCE...IN FIRST PARAGRAPH

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

1. THE BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE ASSOCIATED WITH A TROPICAL WAVE HAS
SLOWED DOWN AND IT IS STILL LOCATED OVER EXTREME WESTERN AFRICA.
ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS APPEAR CONDUCIVE FOR DEVELOPMENT...AND THIS
SYSTEM HAS THE POTENTIAL TO BECOME A TROPICAL DEPRESSION DURING THE
NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS WHEN THE LOW MOVES BETWEEN THE WEST COAST OF
AFRICA AND THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS. AFTER THAT TIME...CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED TO BECOME A LESS CONDUCIVE FOR DEVELOPMENT AS THE
DISTURBANCE MOVES TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OVER THE EASTERN
ATLANTIC. THE SYSTEM HAS A MEDIUM CHANCE...40 PERCENT...OF BECOMING
A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS...AND A HIGH CHANCE...60
PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS.
WHETHER THIS SYSTEM BECOMES A TROPICAL CYCLONE OR NOT...IT WILL
LIKELY BRING CLOUDINESS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO PORTIONS OF THE CAPE
VERDE ISLANDS IN THE NEXT 2 OR 3 DAYS.

2. SHOWER ACTIVITY ASSOCIATED WITH A TROPICAL WAVE LOCATED ABOUT 700
MILES EAST OF THE LESSER ANTILLES REMAINS DISORGANIZED. THIS
DISTURBANCE IS EXPECTED TO MOVE WESTWARD TOWARD A REGION WHERE THE
UPPER-LEVEL WINDS ARE NOT FAVORABLE FOR DEVELOPMENT. THIS SYSTEM
HAS A LOW CHANCE...10 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE
DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS...AND A LOW CHANCE...20 PERCENT...OF
BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS.

FIVE-DAY FORMATION PROBABILITIES ARE EXPERIMENTAL IN 2013. COMMENTS
ON THE EXPERIMENTAL FORECASTS CAN BE PROVIDED AT...

HTTP://WWW.NWS.NOAA.GOV/SURVEY/NWS-SURVEY.PHP?CODE=ETWO

FORECASTER AVILA

Deleted Posts: 0	INVEST 96L Discussion Thread - East Atlantic Aug 30, 2013 10:57:38 GMT -6 Select Post Deselect Post Link to Post Back to Top Post by Deleted on Aug 30, 2013 10:57:38 GMT -6 12z GFS drops 96L.

Deleted

Posts: 0

INVEST 96L Discussion Thread - East Atlantic Aug 30, 2013 17:50:34 GMT -6

Post by Deleted on Aug 30, 2013 17:50:34 GMT -6

50%-60%.

THE BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE ASSOCIATED WITH A TROPICAL WAVE IS
NEAR THE WEST COAST OF AFRICA. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS APPEAR
CONDUCIVE FOR DEVELOPMENT WHEN THE LOW REACHES THE ATLANTIC
OCEAN...AND THIS SYSTEM HAS THE POTENTIAL TO BECOME A TROPICAL
DEPRESSION DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS AS IT MOVES TOWARD THE
CAPE VERDE ISLANDS. AFTER THAT TIME...CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO
BECOME LESS CONDUCIVE FOR DEVELOPMENT AS THE DISTURBANCE MOVES
TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OVER THE EASTERN ATLANTIC. THIS SYSTEM
HAS A MEDIUM CHANCE...50 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE
DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS...AND A HIGH CHANCE...60 PERCENT...OF
BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS. WHETHER THIS
DISTURBANCE BECOMES A TROPICAL CYCLONE OR NOT...IT WILL LIKELY
BRING CLOUDINESS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO PORTIONS OF THE CAPE VERDE
ISLANDS IN THE NEXT 2 OR 3 DAYS.

Deleted

Posts: 0

INVEST 96L Discussion Thread - East Atlantic Aug 31, 2013 17:48:36 GMT -6

Post by Deleted on Aug 31, 2013 17:48:36 GMT -6

Down it goes.

A BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE ASSOCIATED WITH A TROPICAL WAVE IS
OVER THE EASTERN ATLANTIC BETWEEN THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS AND THE
COAST OF AFRICA. WHILE THE ASSOCIATED CLOUDINESS AND SHOWERS SHOW
SOME SIGNS OF ORGANIZATION...ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS HAVE BECOME
LESS FAVORABLE FOR DEVELOPMENT...AND THE POTENTIAL FOR A TROPICAL
DEPRESSION TO FORM HAS DIMINISHED. THIS SYSTEM HAS A LOW CHANCE...
20 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT
48 HOURS...AND A LOW CHANCE...20 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL
CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS...AS IT MOVES GENERALLY
WEST-NORTHWESTWARD OVER THE EASTERN ATLANTIC.

ndg GCWX Supporter Posts: 9,974	INVEST 96L Discussion Thread - East Atlantic Aug 31, 2013 20:03:23 GMT -6 via mobile DYLAN FEDERICO likes this Select Post Deselect Post Link to Post Back to Top Post by ndg on Aug 31, 2013 20:03:23 GMT -6 I am telling you, the magic dust is still doing its magic in the eastern Atantic.

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northshoreelise: not on the 12z... Oct 10, 2024 12:15:21 GMT -6

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lencast: I am in Jacksonville, and trying to drive back to New Orleans. Does anyone here know if the I-10 is passable in Lake City and Tallahassee. Sept 27, 2024 5:19:03 GMT -6

tcane: This sure looks like it dies quickly. maybe falling apart before metro New Orleans? Just looking at the lat dozen posts and images here. Sept 10, 2024 11:26:27 GMT -6

rebekahb-Metairie: Looks like it but I wait for the better trained eyes on the forum to respond. Sept 9, 2024 18:52:32 GMT -6

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