INVEST 98L - Discussion Thread

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INVEST 98L - Discussion Thread Oct 6, 2013 17:57:44 GMT -6

Post by Deleted on Oct 6, 2013 17:57:44 GMT -6

Here we go with this invest in Eastern Atlantic.

TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE MESSAGE
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
2351 UTC SUN OCT 6 2013

DISCLAIMER...NUMERICAL MODELS ARE SUBJECT TO LARGE ERRORS.
PLEASE REFER TO NHC OFFICIAL FORECASTS FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
AND SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE INFORMATION.

ATLANTIC OBJECTIVE AIDS FOR

DISTURBANCE INVEST (AL982013) 20131007 0000 UTC

...00 HRS... ...12 HRS... ...24 HRS... ...36 HRS...
131007 0000 131007 1200 131008 0000 131008 1200

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 9.5N 27.2W 10.2N 29.3W 10.9N 31.2W 11.4N 33.2W
BAMD 9.5N 27.2W 10.4N 29.5W 11.7N 31.6W 13.2N 33.2W
BAMM 9.5N 27.2W 10.2N 29.5W 11.0N 31.5W 11.6N 33.3W
LBAR 9.5N 27.2W 10.5N 29.7W 11.7N 32.2W 13.2N 34.4W
SHIP 20KTS 26KTS 36KTS 45KTS
DSHP 20KTS 26KTS 36KTS 45KTS

...48 HRS... ...72 HRS... ...96 HRS... ..120 HRS...
131009 0000 131010 0000 131011 0000 131012 0000

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 12.0N 35.3W 13.5N 40.9W 15.5N 47.2W 17.1N 52.9W
BAMD 14.8N 34.7W 18.4N 37.0W 21.3N 36.3W 20.9N 33.6W
BAMM 12.3N 34.8W 13.6N 38.8W 15.3N 43.3W 17.3N 47.6W
LBAR 14.6N 36.4W 17.0N 39.4W 20.1N 41.7W 22.6N 42.0W
SHIP 52KTS 56KTS 51KTS 52KTS
DSHP 52KTS 56KTS 51KTS 52KTS

...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR = 9.5N LONCUR = 27.2W DIRCUR = 280DEG SPDCUR = 16KT
LATM12 = 8.9N LONM12 = 24.0W DIRM12 = 279DEG SPDM12 = 16KT
LATM24 = 8.5N LONM24 = 20.8W
WNDCUR = 20KT RMAXWD = 100NM WNDM12 = 20KT
CENPRS = 1008MB OUTPRS = 1011MB OUTRAD = 180NM SDEPTH = S
RD34NE = 0NM RD34SE = 0NM RD34SW = 0NM RD34NW = 0NM

Last Edit: Oct 6, 2013 17:58:16 GMT -6 by Deleted

SKYSUMMIT Administrator President \| Director of Operations Posts: 67,639 Location: Ponchatoula, LA Staff Member	INVEST 98L - Discussion Thread Oct 6, 2013 18:07:53 GMT -6 Select Post Deselect Post Link to Post Back to Top Post by SKYSUMMIT on Oct 6, 2013 18:07:53 GMT -6 18z GFS keeps it weak and across the Atlantic, but dissipates it prior to reaching the Caribbean. The 12z Canadian develops it, but turns it out to sea.
	Buying or Selling Real Estate?--->scottguidry.com United Real Estate Partners - New Orleans / North Shore Scott Guidry, Realtor, ABR, AHWD, AWREP, C2EX Click HERE To Download My FREE MLS Touch App! NWS COOP ID: 16-7425-08 CoCoRaHs ID: LA-TG-23

SKYSUMMIT Administrator President \| Director of Operations Posts: 67,639 Location: Ponchatoula, LA Staff Member	INVEST 98L - Discussion Thread Oct 6, 2013 19:35:36 GMT -6 Select Post Deselect Post Link to Post Back to Top Post by SKYSUMMIT on Oct 6, 2013 19:35:36 GMT -6 Could become Lorenzo.
	Buying or Selling Real Estate?--->scottguidry.com United Real Estate Partners - New Orleans / North Shore Scott Guidry, Realtor, ABR, AHWD, AWREP, C2EX Click HERE To Download My FREE MLS Touch App! NWS COOP ID: 16-7425-08 CoCoRaHs ID: LA-TG-23

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INVEST 98L - Discussion Thread Oct 7, 2013 5:47:47 GMT -6

Post by Deleted on Oct 7, 2013 5:47:47 GMT -6

Down to 30% in five days.

A LOW PRESSURE AREA COULD FORM EARLY THIS WEEK ALONG A TROPICAL WAVE
THAT IS PRODUCING DISORGANIZED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE
EASTERN TROPICAL ATLANTIC SEVERAL HUNDRED MILES SOUTHWEST OF THE
CAPE VERDE ISLANDS. UPPER-LEVEL WINDS ARE FORECAST TO GRADUALLY
BECOME LESS FAVORABLE FOR DEVELOPMENT OF THIS DISTURBANCE DURING
THE NEXT FEW DAYS...AND THIS SYSTEM HAS A LOW CHANCE...20
PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.
STRONG UPPER-LEVEL WINDS LATER THIS WEEK ARE EXPECTED TO MAKE
DEVELOPMENT LESS LIKELY...AND THIS SYSTEM HAS A MEDIUM CHANCE...30
PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS
WHILE IT MOVES WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT ABOUT 10 MPH.

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INVEST 98L - Discussion Thread Oct 7, 2013 11:39:11 GMT -6

Post by Deleted on Oct 7, 2013 11:39:11 GMT -6

Up to 30%/40% at 2 PM TWO:

A LARGE AREA OF DISTURBED WEATHER IS LOCATED WELL TO THE SOUTH AND
SOUTHWEST OF THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED TO BE FAVORABLE FOR GRADUAL DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM
DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS...AND THIS SYSTEM HAS A MEDIUM
CHANCE...30 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS. UPPER-LEVEL WINDS ARE FORECAST TO BECOME LESS
CONDUCIVE FOR DEVELOPMENT LATER THIS WEEK...AND THIS SYSTEM HAS A
MEDIUM CHANCE...40 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING
THE NEXT 5 DAYS WHILE IT MOVES WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT ABOUT 5 TO 10
MPH.

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INVEST 98L - Discussion Thread Oct 7, 2013 17:35:37 GMT -6

Post by Deleted on Oct 7, 2013 17:35:37 GMT -6

8 PM TWO up to 40%/50%.

A BROAD LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IS PRODUCING A LARGE AREA OF DISTURBED
WEATHER WELL TO THE SOUTH AND SOUTHWEST OF THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS.
ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO BE FAVORABLE FOR GRADUAL
DEVELOPMENT OF THIS DISTURBANCE DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS...
AND IT HAS A MEDIUM CHANCE...40 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL
CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS. UPPER-LEVEL WINDS ARE FORECAST TO
BECOME LESS CONDUCIVE FOR DEVELOPMENT LATE IN THE WEEK...AND THIS
SYSTEM HAS A MEDIUM CHANCE...50 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL
CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS WHILE IT MOVES WEST-NORTHWESTWARD
AT ABOUT 10 MPH.

SKYSUMMIT Administrator President \| Director of Operations Posts: 67,639 Location: Ponchatoula, LA Staff Member	INVEST 98L - Discussion Thread Oct 7, 2013 19:43:14 GMT -6 Select Post Deselect Post Link to Post Back to Top Post by SKYSUMMIT on Oct 7, 2013 19:43:14 GMT -6 Maybe we'll be able to scratch another name of the list.
	Buying or Selling Real Estate?--->scottguidry.com United Real Estate Partners - New Orleans / North Shore Scott Guidry, Realtor, ABR, AHWD, AWREP, C2EX Click HERE To Download My FREE MLS Touch App! NWS COOP ID: 16-7425-08 CoCoRaHs ID: LA-TG-23

southernlady1 GCWX Supporter Posts: 574	INVEST 98L - Discussion Thread Oct 7, 2013 21:52:03 GMT -6 Select Post Deselect Post Link to Post Back to Top Post by southernlady1 on Oct 7, 2013 21:52:03 GMT -6 Oct 7, 2013 19:43:14 GMT -6 SKYSUMMIT said: Maybe we'll be able to scratch another name of the list. Hope it turns out to be a dud like Karen!!!

gulfbreeze Category 3 Posts: 619	INVEST 98L - Discussion Thread Oct 7, 2013 23:46:25 GMT -6 Select Post Deselect Post Link to Post Back to Top Post by gulfbreeze on Oct 7, 2013 23:46:25 GMT -6 Possible future Lorenzo
	Last Edit: Oct 7, 2013 23:46:56 GMT -6 by gulfbreeze Not a professional forecast by any means and should not be viewed as such - just my opinion. Audrey'57, Carla'61 Hilda'64, Betsy'65, Edith'71, Carmen'74, Danny'85, Juan'85, Andrew'92, Iniki'92 (while on vacation in Kauai), Lili'02, Rita'05, Gustav'08, Ike'08, No-Name'16, Harvey'17, Barry'19, Laura'20, Delta'20, Ida'21.

SKYSUMMIT Administrator President \| Director of Operations Posts: 67,639 Location: Ponchatoula, LA Staff Member	INVEST 98L - Discussion Thread Oct 8, 2013 12:18:21 GMT -6 Select Post Deselect Post Link to Post Back to Top Post by SKYSUMMIT on Oct 8, 2013 12:18:21 GMT -6 Circulation looks a bit more vigorous today. The GFS eventually turns him in to a hurricane after turning around in the open Atlantic within the next 2 weeks.
	Buying or Selling Real Estate?--->scottguidry.com United Real Estate Partners - New Orleans / North Shore Scott Guidry, Realtor, ABR, AHWD, AWREP, C2EX Click HERE To Download My FREE MLS Touch App! NWS COOP ID: 16-7425-08 CoCoRaHs ID: LA-TG-23

southernlady1
GCWX Supporter

Posts: 574

INVEST 98L - Discussion Thread Oct 9, 2013 10:34:37 GMT -6

Post by southernlady1 on Oct 9, 2013 10:34:37 GMT -6

Oct 8, 2013 12:18:21 GMT -6 SKYSUMMIT said:

Circulation looks a bit more vigorous today. The GFS eventually turns him in to a hurricane after turning around in the open Atlantic within the next 2 weeks.

Is this not something we're going to have to worry about? Is there shear and/or dry air that will affect this down the road? Would love for it to be a dud!!!

SKYSUMMIT
Administrator

President | Director of Operations

Posts: 67,639

Location: Ponchatoula, LA

Staff Member

INVEST 98L - Discussion Thread Oct 9, 2013 11:37:04 GMT -6

Post by SKYSUMMIT on Oct 9, 2013 11:37:04 GMT -6

Oct 9, 2013 10:34:37 GMT -6 southernlady1 said:

Oct 8, 2013 12:18:21 GMT -6 SKYSUMMIT said:

Circulation looks a bit more vigorous today. The GFS eventually turns him in to a hurricane after turning around in the open Atlantic within the next 2 weeks.

Is this not something we're going to have to worry about? Is there shear and/or dry air that will affect this down the road? Would love for it to be a dud!!!

It'll stay out to sea.

Buying or Selling Real Estate?--->scottguidry.com
United Real Estate Partners - New Orleans / North Shore
Scott Guidry, Realtor, ABR, AHWD, AWREP, C2EX
Click HERE To Download My FREE MLS Touch App!
NWS COOP ID: 16-7425-08
CoCoRaHs ID: LA-TG-23

SKYSUMMIT
Administrator

President | Director of Operations

Posts: 67,639

Location: Ponchatoula, LA

Staff Member

INVEST 98L - Discussion Thread Oct 10, 2013 7:14:52 GMT -6

Post by SKYSUMMIT on Oct 10, 2013 7:14:52 GMT -6

50/50

CLOUDINESS AND SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH A BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE
IN THE FAR EASTERN ATLANTIC...ABOUT SEVERAL HUNDRED MILES SOUTHWEST
OF THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS...HAVE BECOME A LITTLE BETTER ORGANIZED
THIS MORNING. THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR A TROPICAL DEPRESSION TO
FORM LATER TODAY OR TOMORROW BEFORE UNFAVORABLE UPPER-LEVEL LEVEL
WINDS BECOME ESTABLISHED NEAR THE DISTURBANCE. THIS SYSTEM HAS A
MEDIUM CHANCE...50 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING
THE NEXT 48 HOURS...AND A MEDIUM CHANCE...50 PERCENT...OF BECOMING
A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS WHILE IT MOVES WESTWARD
TO WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT AROUND 10 MPH.

Last Edit: Oct 10, 2013 7:15:44 GMT -6 by SKYSUMMIT

Buying or Selling Real Estate?--->scottguidry.com
United Real Estate Partners - New Orleans / North Shore
Scott Guidry, Realtor, ABR, AHWD, AWREP, C2EX
Click HERE To Download My FREE MLS Touch App!
NWS COOP ID: 16-7425-08
CoCoRaHs ID: LA-TG-23

hurricaner
Moderator

Board Member

Posts: 5,167

Staff Member

INVEST 98L - Discussion Thread Oct 11, 2013 17:44:54 GMT -6

Post by hurricaner on Oct 11, 2013 17:44:54 GMT -6

98L is now cherry red 60%-60%,

THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY HAS BECOME MORE CONCENTRATED IN ASSOCIATION
WITH A LARGE LOW PRESSURE AREA LOCATED ABOUT 1100 MILES WEST-
SOUTHWEST OF THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS. THERE IS POTENTIAL FOR A
TROPICAL DEPRESSION TO FORM IN THIS AREA DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO
BEFORE UPPER-LEVEL WINDS BECOME LESS CONDUCIVE FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
FORMATION. THIS SYSTEM HAS A HIGH CHANCE...60 PERCENT OF BECOMING
A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS...AND A HIGH CHANCE...
60 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS
WHILE IT MOVES WESTWARD TO WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 10 TO 15 MPH.

GCWX Board Member

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INVEST 98L - Discussion Thread Oct 12, 2013 5:48:02 GMT -6

Post by Deleted on Oct 12, 2013 5:48:02 GMT -6

Down to Orange again at 50%.

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 AM EDT SAT OCT 12 2013

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

1. A LARGE AREA OF CLOUDINESS AND SHOWERS LOCATED ABOUT MIDWAY BETWEEN
THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS AND THE LESSER ANTILLES IS ASSOCIATED WITH
AN ELONGATED AREA OF LOW PRESSURE. ALTHOUGH THIS LOW IS PRODUCING
WINDS TO NEAR TROPICAL STORM FORCE...THE SYSTEM LACKS A
WELL-DEFINED CIRCULATION CENTER. FURTHERMORE...THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY HAS DECREASED AND UPPER-LEVEL WINDS ARE GRADUALLY BECOMING
LESS CONDUCIVE FOR DEVELOPMENT. THIS SYSTEM HAS A MEDIUM CHANCE...
50 PERCENT OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48
HOURS...AND A MEDIUM CHANCE...50 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL
CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS WHILE IT MOVES WESTWARD TO
WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 10 TO 15 MPH. ADDITIONAL INFORMATION ON THIS
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM CAN BE FOUND IN HIGH SEAS FORECASTS ISSUED BY
THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE.

HIGH SEAS FORECASTS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CAN BE
FOUND UNDER AWIPS HEADER NFDHSFAT1 AND WMO HEADER FZNT01 KWBC.

FIVE-DAY FORMATION PROBABILITIES ARE EXPERIMENTAL IN 2013. COMMENTS
ON THE EXPERIMENTAL FORECASTS CAN BE PROVIDED AT...

HTTP://WWW.NWS.NOAA.GOV/SURVEY/NWS-SURVEY.PHP?CODE=ETWO

FORECASTER STEWART

INVEST 98L - Discussion Thread

Post by Deleted on Oct 6, 2013 17:57:44 GMT -6

Post by SKYSUMMIT on Oct 6, 2013 18:07:53 GMT -6

Post by SKYSUMMIT on Oct 6, 2013 19:35:36 GMT -6

Post by Deleted on Oct 7, 2013 5:47:47 GMT -6

Post by Deleted on Oct 7, 2013 11:39:11 GMT -6

Post by Deleted on Oct 7, 2013 17:35:37 GMT -6

Post by SKYSUMMIT on Oct 7, 2013 19:43:14 GMT -6

Post by southernlady1 on Oct 7, 2013 21:52:03 GMT -6

Post by gulfbreeze on Oct 7, 2013 23:46:25 GMT -6

Post by SKYSUMMIT on Oct 8, 2013 12:18:21 GMT -6

Post by southernlady1 on Oct 9, 2013 10:34:37 GMT -6

Post by SKYSUMMIT on Oct 9, 2013 11:37:04 GMT -6

Post by SKYSUMMIT on Oct 10, 2013 7:14:52 GMT -6

Post by hurricaner on Oct 11, 2013 17:44:54 GMT -6

Post by Deleted on Oct 12, 2013 5:48:02 GMT -6

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