Post by SKYSUMMIT on Dec 28, 2013 9:17:26 GMT -6
SATELLITE PRECIPITATION ESTIMATES..DATE/TIME 12/28/13 1500Z
SATELLITE ANALYSIS BRANCH/NESDIS---NPPU---TEL.301-683-1404
LATEST DATA USED: GOES-13 1445Z KUSSELSON
NOAA AMSU: 0807Z DMSP SSMIS:1248Z
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LOCATION...NW FLORIDA...GEORGIA...ALABAMA...S AND E MISSISSIPPI...
LOCATION...SE LOUISIANA...
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ATTN WFOS...FFC...TAE...BMX...MOB...JAN...LIX...LCH...
ATTN RFCS...SERFC...LMRFC...
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EVENT...MAX 6HR RAIN ESTIMATES IN WESTERN GULF AND COAST GENERALLY LESS
THAN 1" SO FAR...BUT SYSTEM ABOUT TO RAMP UP AND RAMP UP EVEN FURTHER
LATER TODAY AND TONIGHT...
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SATELLITE ANALYSIS AND TRENDS...SO FAR PACIFIC MOISTURE IN THE MID TO
HIGH LEVEL HAS BEEN THE DOMINANT SOURCE OF MOISTURE WITH ORIGINS FROM
THE PACIFIC SOUTHEAST OF BAJA CALIFORNIA AND 700 TO 500MB FLOW TAKING THE
MOISTURE OVER THE SOUTHERN MEXICAN MOUNTAINS AND THROUGH THE WESTERN GULF
INTO LA...MS...AL. MICROWAVE SENSORS DEPICTING PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES
AS HIGH AS 1.8" IN WESTERN GULF AND ADVECTION FROM PACIFIC SOURCE WHERE
PWATS CLOSE TO 2" INSURE A READY SUPPLY OF PACIFIC MOISTURE CONTINUING
FOR AWHILE. AND FOR AREAS LIKE ALABAMA AND GEORGIA...LURKING IN THE
EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO WAS A SMALLER SECONDARY MAX AREA OF MOISTURE
FROM YUCATAN TO NEAR THE WESTERN KEYS OF FLORIDA THAT HAD EVEN HIGHER
VALUES THAN THE WESTERN GULF AND IF THEY CAN GET INVOLVED LATER ON WOULD
FURTHER RAMP UP THE RAIN FOR ALABAMA AND GEORGIA. BUT FOR THE SHORT TERM,
A LOT OF WATCHING AND WAITING AS MOISTURE SUPPLY FROM PACIFIC CONTINUES
ON SWLY 700-500MB FLOW AND LOW LEVEL 750-900MB CONTINUES TO GET BETTER
AND BEGINS TO TAP INTO SE GULF/YUCATAN MOISTURE FOR GOOD ADDITIONAL LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE ADVECTION FOR LATER TODAY AND TONIGHT. ALSO A POINT TO
BE MADE WAS PAST 7 DAY RAINFALL WITH A MAX OF 300+ PERCENT OF NORMAL
SE MS INTO THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS INCLUDING CENTRAL ALABAMA AND C
TO N GEORGIA THAT WILL BE WATCHED MORE CLOSELY DUE TO ANTECEDENT SOIL
CONDITIONS BASED ON THE LAST WEEK OR SO HVY RAINS THAT CAME THROUGH
THAT AREA AND APPEARS TO BE LINING UP WELL FOR A PACIFIC-GULF MOISTURE
CONVERGENCE AND FURTHER DEEPENING OF MOISTURE OVER THE NEXT 24HRS.
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SHORT TERM OUTLOOK VALID 1500-2100Z...MEDIUM TO HIGH CONFIDENCE FACTOR
IN SHORT TERM OUTLOOK...WAITING AND WATCHING PERIOD AS WEAK IMPULSES IN
MID/HIGH LEVEL FURTHER MOISTEN THE ATMOSPHERE OUT AHEAD ACROSS LA-MS-AL-GA
AND LOW LEVELS FURTHER ORGANIZING IN THE SE GULF FOR ADDITIONAL MOISTURE
COMING IN MOSTLY AFTER THIS PERIOD. INCREASED MOISTURE CONVERGENCE FROM
BOTH THE PACIFIC AND GULF ADVECTION WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE CENTERED
ON COASTAL SE LA...S MS...SW ALABAMA AND EXPANDING NORTHEAST. WITH SUCH
HIGH PWATS JUST OFFSHORE...COULD START GETTING 1" PER 4-6HRS THROUGH
21Z MOSTLY CONFINED TO SE LA TO S MS INTO SW ALABAMA. STILL NOT SEEING
A LOW CIRCULATION IN GULF OF MEXICO...BUT CERTAINLY COULD BE A HEALTHY
INVERTED TROUGH CENTRAL GULF WHERE 1.8" PWAT RESIDED ALONG CONVECTION
JUST SOUTH OF SE LA AND S MS.
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