Post by thibodauxwx on Jan 13, 2014 6:12:06 GMT -6
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
357 AM CST MON JAN 13 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE IS CENTERED OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC. A
COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM NORTH OF THE GREAT LAKES REGION SOUTHWARD
INTO CENTRAL OKLAHOMA AND WESTERN TEXAS. LOCALLY...TEMPERATURES
HAVE BEEN RISING MOST PLACES LAST COUPLE HOURS DUE TO WARM
ADVECTION FROM THE GULF OF MEXICO ON SOUTHEAST WINDS. DEWPOINTS
SIMILARLY RISING AND NOW SITTING IN UPPER 40S TO LOWER 50S MOST
PLACES.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
SERIES OF UPPER DISTURBANCES AND REINFORCING FRONTS WILL MOVE
ACROSS THE AREA THROUGHOUT THE WEEK. FIRST SHORT WAVE MOVES
THROUGH TODAY AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT...BRINGING WIDESPREAD SHOWERS
AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS TO THE AREA. THIS ACTIVITY IS ALREADY
IMPACTING AREAS WEST OF I-55...AND WILL CONTINUE TO SPREAD EASTWARD
THROUGH THE MORNING. CARRYING NEAR 100 PERCENT CHANCES OF RAIN
ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA TODAY. AS LOW LEVEL MOISTURE CONTINUES TO
INCREASE...SOME CONVECTION COULD BECOME STRONG OR MARGINALLY
SEVERE...WITH THE MAIN THREAT BEING DAMAGING WIND GUSTS. THE
LIMITING FACTOR HERE WILL BE WHETHER CONVECTION CAN BECOME SURFACE
BASED AND TRANSPORT STRONGER WINDS TO THE SURFACE. HIGHER
RESOLUTION MODELS INDICATE THAT RAIN SHOULD COME TO AN END FROM
WEST TO EAST THROUGH THE AFTERNOON...SO WILL CONTINUE TO SHOW POPS
TAPERING OFF IN A SIMILAR FASHION.
SURFACE COLD FRONT SHOULD SWEEP THROUGH THE AREA DURING THE LATE
AFTERNOON OR EARLY EVENING...CLEARING OUT SKIES AND BRINGING IN
ANOTHER ROUND OF COLDER AN DRIER AIR. EXPECT LOWS TO DROP INTO THE
LOW TO MID 40S TONIGHT. AFTERNOON TEMPS SHOULD REBOUND INTO THE
LOW TO MID 60S TUESDAY.
NEXT DISTURBANCE MOVES THROUGH THE AREA LATE TUESDAY AND TUESDAY
NIGHT...WITH A REINFORCING SHOT OF COLD AND DRY AIR. WILL KEEP ANY
MENTION OF RAIN OUT OF THE FORECAST AS THERE WILL BE VERY LIMITED
MOISTURE TO WORK WITH. THE AIR MASS BEHIND THIS REINFORCING FRONT
WILL BE COLDER THAN THE ONE BEHIND TODAY/S FRONT. HIGHS ON
WEDNESDAY WILL TOP OUT IN THE LOWER 50S...WITH LOWS WEDNESDAY
NIGHT DROPPING TO NEAR OR BELOW FREEZING ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA.
LOOKS LIKE WE WILL AVOID A HARD FREEZE...WITH LOWEST TEMPERATURES
FORECAST IN THE UPPER 20S FOR NORTH SHORE...SW MISSISSIPPI AND MS
GULF COAST.
ANOTHER FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA THURSDAY EVENING AND
THURSDAY NIGHT. ONCE AGAIN...THERE WILL BE NO REAL PERIOD OF
RETURN FLOW AND MOISTURE WILL BE SEVERELY LIMITED. THE EURO IS A
BIT MORE AGGRESSIVE WITH POPS ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM THAN THE
GFS...BUT THINK IT MIGHT BE A BIT OVERDONE. FOR THE TIME BEING...
WILL CARRY ONLY 14 PERCENT POPS TO KEEP MENTION OF RAIN OUT OF THE
FORECAST WORDING. WILL NEED TO CONTINUE REFINING THE DETAILS OF
THIS SYSTEM AS THE MOISTURE PICTURE BECOMES CLEARER. TEMPERATURES
BEHIND THIS THIRD FRONT WILL BE SIMILAR TO...OR MAYBE A COUPLE
DEGREES COLDER THAN THOSE BEHIND TUESDAY/S FRONT. EXPECT LOWS
FRIDAY NIGHT TO DROP INTO THE MID TO UPPER 20S ACROSS NORTHERN
SECTIONS AND INTO THE LOW TO MID 30S ACROSS SOUTHERN AREAS. WILL
DEFINITELY BE WATCHING MODEL TEMPERATURE TRENDS IN ORDER TO
REFINE THE POSSIBLE EXTENT OF A LIGHT FREEZE ACROSS THE SOUTH
SHORE FRIDAY NIGHT.
SLOW WARMING TREND BEGINS OVER THE WEEKEND...THOUGH ANOTHER FRONT
COULD PASS THROUGH THE AREA AS SOON AS TUESDAY MORNING IF THE EURO
IS CORRECT.
&&
