SEVERE WEATHER OUTBREAK: 4/2/14 - 4/4/14

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
1247 PM CDT Thu Apr 3 2014

.SHORT TERM...(Today and Tonight)
Issued at 247 AM CDT THU APR 3 2014

Ingredients are coming together for what will likely be a widespread
severe weather event from the Interstate 70 corridor in Missouri and
Illinois...southward into the Lower Mississippi Valley. The main
threat area includes all of the Missouri Ozarks and extreme
southeastern Kansas.

As of 3 AM...a warm front was located from just north of Nevada to
around Rolla. North of this front, elevated convection has been
ongoing for much of the night from the Interstate 70 corridor,
south towards Clinton and Sedalia. A few of these storms have
produce large hail. South of the front, we have seen isolated to
widely scattered elevated convection try and get going as a broad
low level jet has developed across the Ozarks.

As we get into the predawn and after dawn hours, that warm front
will continue to lift north as strong height falls begin to
overspread the Plains. Mesoscale models continue to indicate some
potential for scattered elevated convection across the Ozarks as
smaller scale enhancement to the broad low level jet work over the
region. Otherwise, the main play for convection will continue to
be up across northern and central Missouri. A low end severe hail
threat will continue with any storms that do develop as lapse
rates remain steep above an elevated mixed layer (EML).

As we get into later this morning and this afternoon, upper level
energy will pivot and emerge across the central High Plains. As this
happens, surface low pressure will track from south-central Kansas
up into northwestern Missouri by 00 UTC. South of this low, a cold
front will overtake a dry line across eastern Kansas with a dry line
then trailing into eastern Oklahoma. That EML will initially keep
the atmosphere capped along these features into early this
afternoon. By mid to late afternoon, those height falls and what
should be at least some partial sunshine should be enough to
effectively lift/erode the cap.

Supercell thunderstorm development is still the preferred convective
mode as wind fields will carry these cells off the front/dry line.
Hail to the size of tennis balls, damaging winds, and tornadoes will
all be threats. There are a few tidbits worth mentioning regarding
the tornado threat. First off, the last several runs of the RAP and
to some point the NAM indicate some sort of dry line bulge coming
out of northeast Oklahoma. If this were to happen, we may see a
localized increase in low level shear which would enhance tornado
potential. Additionally, the threat for tornadoes will tend to
increase very late this afternoon and this evening as a veered low
level jet develops over the region. There will be the potential for
a few longer track tornadoes...especially if the GFS is correct in
bringing stronger mid-level jet energy out into the warm sector.

As we get into this evening, that front will begin to accelerate to
the east as that short wave trough takes on a neutral and then
negative tilt. Models have slowed the forward speed of the front
ever so slightly (which has been a trend since Wednesday). This may
allow discrete supercells to last a bit longer as convection
approaches the Highway 65 corridor. We do believe that these storms
will eventually transition into a quasi-linear convective system
somewhere around or just east of the Highway 65 corridor. Once the
transition takes place, the straight-line wind threat will ramp up
with widespread damaging winds quite possible. There will also
continue to be a tornado threat with any localized surges/bows
within the line. This activity is expected to exit the eastern
Missouri Ozarks somewhere in the 11 PM to 2 AM window.

new T Watch

I saw a report of that on facebook.

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
203 PM CDT THU APR 3 2014

.UPDATE...
JUST SENT A NEW UPDATE TO THE ZONE PACKAGE TO ACCOUNT FOR TORNADO
WATCH #52 IN EFFECT FOR MOST OF NORTHEAST TEXAS...SOUTHEAST
OKLAHOMA AND MOST OF SOUTHWEST ARKANSAS UNTIL 02Z THIS EVENING.

ISOLATED STORM THAT HAS DEVELOPED WITHIN THE HOUR ON THE DRYLINE
JUST WEST OF DENTON HAS BECOME SEVERE AND VISIBLE SATELLITE SHOWS
TOWERING CUMULUS FORMING ALL ALONG THE DRYLINE. CLOSER TO HOME...
OUR 18Z SOUNDING SHOWED THAT WE STILL HAVE NEARLY A 3 DEGREE CAP
TO OVERCOME BUT AS WE GET INTO THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING
HOURS...WE SHOULD START TO SEE THE DRYLINE CONVECTION MOVE INTO
OUR EXTREME WESTERN AND NORTHWEST ZONES.

NO OTHER CHANGES ATTM. UPDATED ZONE PACKAGE ALREADY SENT ALONG
WITH WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION FOR TORNADO WATCH #52.

It's more than just the SPC Lots of NWS web pages are having problems.

Jackson, MS NWS Severe briefing