SEVERE WEATHER OUTBREAK: 4/2/14 - 4/4/14

JACKSON:





AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
511 AM CDT WED APR 2 2014

...STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE IN THE DELTA THIS AFTERNOON
AND EVENING. SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE FOR MUCH OF THE REGION
THURSDAY NIGHT...

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT...STRONG SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE RIDGING CURRENTLY PREVAILS ACROSS THE ARKLAMISS AND THIS
WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON HOURS. THE
GFS/ECMWF INDICATE THAT A SHORT WAVE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE NORTHERN
PORTIONS OF THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...ALTHOUGH THEY
DIVERGE ON THE AMOUNT AND LOCATION OF CONVECTION THAT DEVELOPS WITH
IT. THE GFS AND ALSO SOME OF THE HI-RES MODELS DEVELOP THUNDERSTORMS
MAINLY NORTH OF THE I-20 CORRIDOR LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING...BUT THE ECMWF KEEPS THE BULK OF THE CONVECTION MAINLY TO
THE NORTH OF OUR AREA...BUT DOES ALSO DEVELOP SOME CONVECTION IN THE
DELTA. ANY CONVECTION THAT DOES DEVELOP OVER THESE AREAS WILL HAVE
THE POTENTIAL TO BECOME STRONG TO SEVERE. THE THUNDERSTORMS WILL HAVE
ML CAPES OF NEAR 1000-1200 J/KG ALONG WITH LAPSE RATES OF NEAR 7.5
C/KM TO WORK WITH THIS AFTN/EVE. STRONGER CAPPING MAY INHIBIT THE
DEVELOPMENT OF THE CONVECTION FURTHER SOUTH ALONG THE I-20 CORRIDOR.
WILL UPDATE THE HWO TO INCLUDE AT LEAST A LIMITED RISK FOR SEVERE
THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

EXPECT THE THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY TO DIMINISH OVERNIGHT AS THE SHORT
WAVE MOVES TO THE EAST. A WARM NIGHT WILL BE ON TAP WITH OVERNIGHT
LOWS BOTTOMING OUT IN THE MID 60S. THE MODELS DEVELOP A STRONG CAP
OVER THE BULK OF THE AREA ON THURSDAY OUT AHEAD OF DEEP UPPER TROUGH
AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT OVER THE PLAINS. EXPECT MOST OF THURSDAY
TO BE RAIN FREE OVER THE BULK OF THE AREA...BUT SHOWERS AND STORMS
MAY MOVE INTO THE DELTA DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON HOURS.

THE COLD FRONT WILL EXTEND ACROSS ARKANSAS INTO NORTHWEST LOUISIANA
BY THE MID EVENING HOURS ON THURSDAY WITH THE THUNDERSTORM MOVING
INTO THE WESTERN PORTIONS OF OUR AREA DURING THIS TIME FRAME. THE
MODELS HAVE CHANGED VERY LITTLE AND IT CONTINUES TO LOOK LIKE SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS ARE LIKELY THURSDAY EVENING INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS
AS THE COLD FRONT SWEEPS ACROSS THE AREA. ML CAPES WILL RANGE FROM
1000-1500 J/KG ALONG AND WEST OF THE MISSISSIPPI THURSDAY EVENING
ALONG WITH STEEP LAPSE RATES OF 7.0-7.5 C/KM AND PLENTY OF SHEAR
WITH 0-3 HELICITY VALUES OF 350-400 M^2/S^2. THE MODELS DUE INDICATE
THAT THE INSTABILITY AND SHEAR WILL WAIN THE FURTHER EAST IT GETS
ACROSS OUR AREA OVERNIGHT...BUT IT CONTINUES TO LOOK LIKE A HIGH
SEVERE POTENTIAL GENERALLY ALONG AND NORTHWEST OF THE NATCHEZ TRACE
CORRIDOR WITH A COUPLE OF STRONG TORNADOES POSSIBLE OVER THESE
AREAS THURSDAY EVENING INTO THE EARLY OVERNIGHT HOURS. /15/

.LONG TERM...FRIDAY THROUGH NEXT WEDNESDAY...MODELS ARE IN GOOD
AGREEMENT THIS MORNING THAT A COLD FRONT WILL BE NEAR THE NATCHEZ
TRACE CORRIDOR AROUND SUNRISE FRIDAY MORNING. STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO
BE ONGOING ALONG AND JUST AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT AND THERE WILL
STILL BE ENVIRONMENTAL PARAMETERS IN PLACE THAT WILL SUPPORT THE
DEVELOPMENT OF A FEW SEVERE STORMS EARLY FRIDAY MORNING. WL CONTINUE
THIS MENTION IN THE HWO SOUTHEAST OF THE NATCHEZ TRACE. THE COLD
FRONT IS EXPECTED TO PUSH SOUTHEAST OF OUR CWA BY NOON ENDING THE
SEVERE STORM POTENTIAL OVER OUR CWA. MUCH DRIER AIR IS EXPECTED TO
MOVE INTO OUR CWA FRIDAY AFTERNOON IN THE WAKE OF THE COLD FRONT. A
1020MB SURFACE HIGH WILL MOVE FROM THE SOUTHERN PLAINS FRIDAY TO
OVER OUR CWA FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY BUT OUR FLOW ALOFT WILL
QUICKLY BACK AGAIN TO THE SOUTHWEST AHEAD OF ANOTHER SHORTWAVE THAT
WILL MOVE OVER THE DESERT SOUTHWEST BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON. MODELS
AGREE THAT THIS WILL HELP THE COLD FRONT STALL CLOSE TO THE GULF
COAST AND HELP BRING RAIN BACK INTO OUR SOUTHERN ZONES BY LATE
SATURDAY AFTERNOON. AS THE SHORTWAVE PROGRESSES EAST ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY...A SURFACE LOW IS
EXPECTED TO DEVELOP NEAR THE TEXAS COAST AND BEGIN TRACKING TO THE
NORTHEAST. THERE REMAIN DIFFERENCES WITH THE TRACK OF THE SURFACE
LOW WITH THE ECMWF BEING FARTHER NORTH OVER NORTHERN MISSISSIPPI
SUNDAY NIGHT WHILE THE GFS...GFS ENSEMBLES AND CANADIAN HAVE A MORE
SOUTHERN TRACK. HAVE LEANED TOWARD THE GFS WITH THE SURFACE LOW OVER
THE SOUTHWEST LOUISIANA COAST BY NOON SUNDAY AND THEN OVER SOUTHEAST
MISSISSIPPI BY MIDNIGHT SUNDAY NIGHT. MODELS SHOW HEAVY RAINFALL
POTENTIAL ACROSS OUR SOUTHERN ZONES SUNDAY. A MORE NORTHERN TRACK OF
THE SURFACE LOW WOULD ALSO RAISE CONCERNS OF SEVERE STORM POTENTIAL.
HAVE GONE ABOVE GFSMOS POPS ALONG THE HIGHWAY 84 CORRIDOR SATURDAY
NIGHT AND SUNDAY. THE SURFACE LOW AND SHORTWAVE WILL SHIFT NORTHEAST
OF OUR CWA MONDAY WITH DECREASING RAIN CHANCES BUT A SECOND
SHORTWAVE WILL BE DROPPING OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS MONDAY
MAINTAINING A BROAD TROUGH OVER THE REGION. THIS BROAD TROUGH WILL
LINGER OVER OUR REGION THROUGH MID WEEK WHILE AN AMPLIFIED RIDGE
BUILDS OVER THE WESTERN CONUS. THIS WILL RESULT IN A PERIOD OF
COOLER THAN NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR OUR CWA AND DISTURBED WEATHER A
SUBTLE SHORTWAVES IN THE NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT MAINTAIN LOW RAIN
CHANCES EVEN AFTER THE MAIN SECOND SHORTWAVE MOVES EAST OF OUR CWA
MONDAY NIGHT. /22/

Starts around 1pm


4pm:

6pm:

7pm:

7pm SIGTOR:

Where you driving from exactly? Monroe should be starting around noon, but amping up after 5

I'd say if you can get there relatively early.. preferably before noon.. at the latest 2-4 pm.. you may be okay if you can stand a little rain and thunder.

Thank you CajunWX, I am going to leave Destrehan much earlier than I had planned. I do not mind the rain but not the rough stuff.

Off topic... but i love the color scale use on WX Scout