TROPICAL DEPRESSION #2 Discussion Thread

ndg
GCWX Supporter

Posts: 9,974

TROPICAL DEPRESSION #2 Discussion Thread Jul 21, 2014 6:44:45 GMT -6

Post by ndg on Jul 21, 2014 6:44:45 GMT -6

Well, they went ahead declared the TW in the middle of the Atlantic an Invest.
No problems with windshear for the next 72 hrs or so. If it is able to stay close to the Monsoon trough it may survive in the dry surrounding environment that it is in.

*   ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST       *
                    * GOES AVAILABLE,       OHC AVAILABLE       *
                    *      INVEST  AL922014  07/21/14  12 UTC   *

TIME (HR)          0     6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72    84    96   108   120
V (KT) NO LAND    30    31    34    36    39    45    50    55    58    60    60    63    63
V (KT) LAND       30    31    34    36    39    45    50    55    58    60    60    61    62
V (KT) LGE mod    30    31    32    34    36    41    48    55    61    64    66    65    66
Storm Type      TROP  TROP  TROP  TROP  TROP  TROP  TROP  TROP  TROP  TROP  TROP  TROP  TROP

SHEAR (KT)        17    17    16    13    13     6    14    17    23    23    24    17    13
SHEAR ADJ (KT)     0    -1    -1     0     0     0    -1    -6    -4    -3     0     0     2
SHEAR DIR         55    49    44    30    19   335   318   296   299   269   281   271   287
SST (C)         26.3  26.2  26.2  26.3  26.5  26.9  27.1  27.3  27.6  28.2  28.5  28.5  28.4
POT. INT. (KT)   119   117   117   118   120   125   127   130   133   141   145   145   143
ADJ. POT. INT.   120   116   116   117   119   124   128   130   132   140   142   138   135
200 MB T (C)   -53.7 -53.8 -54.1 -54.4 -54.6 -54.4 -54.4 -54.3 -54.4 -54.1 -54.5 -54.4 -54.6
TH_E DEV (C)       5     6     7     7     7     8     9    10    11    13    13    14    13
700-500 MB RH     55    52    49    45    44    42    40    37    36    38    41    46    52
GFS VTEX (KT)      9     8     7     6     6     6     5     5     4     3  LOST  LOST  LOST
850 MB ENV VOR    15    10     7    -2    -5    -3   -12    -7   -34   -48   -67   -65  -100
200 MB DIV       -18    -7     0    12     6    -9    -2    -1     8     8    -2     2    -6
700-850 TADV      -5    -5    -1    -2    -1     1     1     3     8    12    16    16    25
LAND (KM)       1336  1259  1196  1131  1066   970   906   663   539   416    77    83    80
LAT (DEG N)     11.4  11.8  12.2  12.5  12.8  13.4  13.8  14.5  15.4  16.6  17.9  19.2  20.4
LONG(DEG W)     41.6  42.9  44.2  45.6  46.9  49.8  53.0  56.2  59.4  62.2  65.1  67.5  69.7

Last Edit: Jul 21, 2014 14:33:34 GMT -6 by SKYSUMMIT

SKYSUMMIT Administrator President \| Director of Operations Posts: 67,639 Location: Ponchatoula, LA Staff Member	TROPICAL DEPRESSION #2 Discussion Thread Jul 21, 2014 6:56:29 GMT -6 Select Post Deselect Post Link to Post Back to Top Post by SKYSUMMIT on Jul 21, 2014 6:56:29 GMT -6
	Buying or Selling Real Estate?--->scottguidry.com United Real Estate Partners - New Orleans / North Shore Scott Guidry, Realtor, ABR, AHWD, AWREP, C2EX Click HERE To Download My FREE MLS Touch App! NWS COOP ID: 16-7425-08 CoCoRaHs ID: LA-TG-23

ndg GCWX Supporter Posts: 9,974	TROPICAL DEPRESSION #2 Discussion Thread Jul 21, 2014 7:08:15 GMT -6 Select Post Deselect Post Link to Post Back to Top Post by ndg on Jul 21, 2014 7:08:15 GMT -6 Wow, I am surprised at the intensity models, fairly aggressive with 92L.

Deleted Posts: 0	TROPICAL DEPRESSION #2 Discussion Thread Jul 21, 2014 7:11:11 GMT -6 Select Post Deselect Post Link to Post Back to Top Post by Deleted on Jul 21, 2014 7:11:11 GMT -6 It's racing westward...that's usually not good for organization. The easterlies have been roaring this year.

ndg GCWX Supporter Posts: 9,974	TROPICAL DEPRESSION #2 Discussion Thread Jul 21, 2014 8:16:33 GMT -6 via mobile SCOT PILIE' likes this Select Post Deselect Post Link to Post Back to Top Post by ndg on Jul 21, 2014 8:16:33 GMT -6 Is already looking to me like a TD this morning.

SKYSUMMIT Administrator President \| Director of Operations Posts: 67,639 Location: Ponchatoula, LA Staff Member	TROPICAL DEPRESSION #2 Discussion Thread Jul 21, 2014 8:23:50 GMT -6 harpman - old likes this Select Post Deselect Post Link to Post Back to Top Post by SKYSUMMIT on Jul 21, 2014 8:23:50 GMT -6 Yea, visible is pretty impressive with a tight, vigorous surface circulation. Heck, she even has a nice dry slot in the center.
	Buying or Selling Real Estate?--->scottguidry.com United Real Estate Partners - New Orleans / North Shore Scott Guidry, Realtor, ABR, AHWD, AWREP, C2EX Click HERE To Download My FREE MLS Touch App! NWS COOP ID: 16-7425-08 CoCoRaHs ID: LA-TG-23

Deleted

Posts: 0

TROPICAL DEPRESSION #2 Discussion Thread Jul 21, 2014 8:28:58 GMT -6

Post by Deleted on Jul 21, 2014 8:28:58 GMT -6

Jul 21, 2014 8:23:50 GMT -6 SKYSUMMIT said:

Yea, visible is pretty impressive with a tight, vigorous surface circulation. Heck, she even has a nice dry slot in the center.

You can see how subsidence north of the storm is having an effect on the northern half.

SKYSUMMIT Administrator President \| Director of Operations Posts: 67,639 Location: Ponchatoula, LA Staff Member	TROPICAL DEPRESSION #2 Discussion Thread Jul 21, 2014 8:38:02 GMT -6 Select Post Deselect Post Link to Post Back to Top Post by SKYSUMMIT on Jul 21, 2014 8:38:02 GMT -6 She's a little baby, but stands out quite well out there.
	Buying or Selling Real Estate?--->scottguidry.com United Real Estate Partners - New Orleans / North Shore Scott Guidry, Realtor, ABR, AHWD, AWREP, C2EX Click HERE To Download My FREE MLS Touch App! NWS COOP ID: 16-7425-08 CoCoRaHs ID: LA-TG-23

SCOT PILIE' Meteorologist Meteorologist, Coastal Specialist Posts: 499	TROPICAL DEPRESSION #2 Discussion Thread Jul 21, 2014 8:40:46 GMT -6 Select Post Deselect Post Link to Post Back to Top Post by SCOT PILIE' on Jul 21, 2014 8:40:46 GMT -6 Outlow channel fairly established on the Southern and partially Western side. Interesting, some spiral banding even looks evident. However, Lots of dry/stable air ahead of it, especially to its North.
	Last Edit: Jul 21, 2014 8:45:27 GMT -6 by SCOT PILIE' Twitter: @scotpilie_Wx Facebook: Meteorologist Scot Pilie' Instagram: @scotpilie_Wx

weatherboyy Category 5 Posts: 2,413	TROPICAL DEPRESSION #2 Discussion Thread Jul 21, 2014 8:51:24 GMT -6 Select Post Deselect Post Link to Post Back to Top Post by weatherboyy on Jul 21, 2014 8:51:24 GMT -6 no cv storm this year ya okay looking at 92l
	weather geeks i don't really talk much I post image

SKYSUMMIT
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President | Director of Operations

Posts: 67,639

Location: Ponchatoula, LA

Staff Member

TROPICAL DEPRESSION #2 Discussion Thread Jul 21, 2014 9:29:57 GMT -6

Post by SKYSUMMIT on Jul 21, 2014 9:29:57 GMT -6

SPECIAL TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1110 AM EDT MON JUL 21 2014

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

Special outlook issued to update discussion of system in the
central tropical Atlantic.

1. Updated: Shower activity associated with a small area of low
pressure located about midway between the Cape Verde Islands and the
Lesser Antilles has increased a little during the past few hours.
Although this activity remains limited, it continues to show signs
of organization. Satellite data also indicate that a closed
circulation could be forming and that the system is producing a
small area of winds near tropical storm force. A tropical depression
could develop during the next couple of days while the system moves
westward to west-northwestward at 15 to 20 mph. After that time
however, environmental conditions are expected to become less
conducive for development. Interests in the Lesser Antilles should
monitor the progress of this system.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...50 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...50 percent.

Forecaster Brennan/Roberts

Buying or Selling Real Estate?--->scottguidry.com
United Real Estate Partners - New Orleans / North Shore
Scott Guidry, Realtor, ABR, AHWD, AWREP, C2EX
Click HERE To Download My FREE MLS Touch App!
NWS COOP ID: 16-7425-08
CoCoRaHs ID: LA-TG-23

SKYSUMMIT Administrator President \| Director of Operations Posts: 67,639 Location: Ponchatoula, LA Staff Member	TROPICAL DEPRESSION #2 Discussion Thread Jul 21, 2014 9:37:33 GMT -6 Select Post Deselect Post Link to Post Back to Top Post by SKYSUMMIT on Jul 21, 2014 9:37:33 GMT -6 Nothing but an open wave on the 12z GFS which is out to 30 hours.
	Buying or Selling Real Estate?--->scottguidry.com United Real Estate Partners - New Orleans / North Shore Scott Guidry, Realtor, ABR, AHWD, AWREP, C2EX Click HERE To Download My FREE MLS Touch App! NWS COOP ID: 16-7425-08 CoCoRaHs ID: LA-TG-23

Deleted Posts: 0	TROPICAL DEPRESSION #2 Discussion Thread Jul 21, 2014 9:39:24 GMT -6 weatherboyy likes this Select Post Deselect Post Link to Post Back to Top Post by Deleted on Jul 21, 2014 9:39:24 GMT -6 Jul 21, 2014 8:51:24 GMT -6 weatherboyy said: no cv storm this year ya okay looking at 92l It's not named yet...therefore, it's not a Cape Verde storm.

weatherboyy Category 5 Posts: 2,413	TROPICAL DEPRESSION #2 Discussion Thread Jul 21, 2014 9:41:54 GMT -6 Select Post Deselect Post Link to Post Back to Top Post by weatherboyy on Jul 21, 2014 9:41:54 GMT -6 Kory okay
	weather geeks i don't really talk much I post image

matt GCWX Supporter Posts: 317	TROPICAL DEPRESSION #2 Discussion Thread Jul 21, 2014 10:31:13 GMT -6 Select Post Deselect Post Link to Post Back to Top Post by matt on Jul 21, 2014 10:31:13 GMT -6 is there an ASCAT pass of it yet?

lencast: I am in Jacksonville, and trying to drive back to New Orleans. Does anyone here know if the I-10 is passable in Lake City and Tallahassee. Sept 27, 2024 5:19:03 GMT -6

tcane: This sure looks like it dies quickly. maybe falling apart before metro New Orleans? Just looking at the lat dozen posts and images here. Sept 10, 2024 11:26:27 GMT -6

jenniqtip: I donate every year. 😀ju sry as soon as the first area of interest pops up!! I rarely post though so the tag isn’t necessary. Just know I appreciate everything you do!! Jul 7, 2024 12:53:12 GMT -6

TROPICAL DEPRESSION #2 Discussion Thread

Post by ndg on Jul 21, 2014 6:44:45 GMT -6

Post by SKYSUMMIT on Jul 21, 2014 6:56:29 GMT -6

Post by ndg on Jul 21, 2014 7:08:15 GMT -6

Post by Deleted on Jul 21, 2014 7:11:11 GMT -6

Post by ndg on Jul 21, 2014 8:16:33 GMT -6

Post by SKYSUMMIT on Jul 21, 2014 8:23:50 GMT -6

Post by Deleted on Jul 21, 2014 8:28:58 GMT -6

Post by SKYSUMMIT on Jul 21, 2014 8:38:02 GMT -6

Post by SCOT PILIE' on Jul 21, 2014 8:40:46 GMT -6

Post by weatherboyy on Jul 21, 2014 8:51:24 GMT -6

Post by SKYSUMMIT on Jul 21, 2014 9:29:57 GMT -6

Post by SKYSUMMIT on Jul 21, 2014 9:37:33 GMT -6

Post by Deleted on Jul 21, 2014 9:39:24 GMT -6

Post by weatherboyy on Jul 21, 2014 9:41:54 GMT -6

Post by matt on Jul 21, 2014 10:31:13 GMT -6

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