Severe Weather Potential Monday Afternoon-Tuesday Morning

New Day 2 outlooks:



DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK

NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK

1230 PM CDT SUN OCT 12 2014



VALID 131200Z - 141200Z



...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM THE OZARKS/ARKLATEX TO THE

LOWER/MIDDLE MS VALLEY AND TN VALLEY...



...SUMMARY...

NUMEROUS STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED MONDAY AND

MONDAY NIGHT FROM EAST TEXAS THROUGH THE LOWER AND MIDDLE

MISSISSIPPI VALLEY INTO A PORTION OF THE TENNESSEE AND OHIO VALLEYS

AND GULF COAST STATES. WIDESPREAD DAMAGING WINDS AND SOME TORNADOES

WILL BE POSSIBLE.



...SYNOPSIS...

AN AMPLIFYING LARGE-SCALE PATTERN IS EXPECTED OVER THE CONUS ON

MONDAY...HIGHLIGHTED BY AN INCREASINGLY NEUTRAL-TILT UPPER TROUGH

MOVING EASTWARD OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS/ARKLATEX TO LOWER-MIDDLE MS

RIVER VALLEY.



...MID-SOUTH/LOWER-MIDDLE MS VALLEY/TN VALLEY/OH VALLEY...

THE POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR A REGIONAL SEVERE WEATHER EVENT ON MONDAY

INCLUDING CORRIDORS OF DAMAGING WINDS AND SOME TORNADOES...INCLUDING

A FEW POTENTIALLY STRONG...PARTICULARLY ACROSS THE MID-SOUTH AND

LOWER/MIDDLE MS RIVER VALLEY TO TN VALLEY. WHILE A HIGHER-END SLIGHT

RISK /ENHANCED SLIGHT EQUIVALENT/ WILL CURRENTLY BE

MAINTAINED...PORTIONS OF THE REGION MAY WARRANT A MODERATE RISK

UPGRADE IN DAY 1 OUTLOOKS.



A SQUALL LINE WITH AT LEAST SOME EMBEDDED SEVERE POTENTIAL /DAMAGING

WINDS AND TORNADO/ IS LIKELY TO BE ONGOING MONDAY MORNING ACROSS

EASTERN OK/ARKLATEX VICINITY. CONTRIBUTIONS TO STRONG LOW-LEVEL

SHEAR ASIDE...A PERSISTENTLY STRONG 45-60 KT SOUTH-SOUTHWESTERLY

LOW-LEVEL JET WILL ENHANCE A STEADY NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD TRANSPORT OF

LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE AHEAD OF THE SQUALL LINE AND AN

EAST-SOUTHEASTWARD ADVANCING COLD FRONT. THIS SHOULD ULTIMATELY

RESULT IN UPPER 60S/NEAR 70F SURFACE DEWPOINTS ACROSS PARTS OF THE

LOWER MS VALLEY/GULF COAST VICINITY...WITH INCREASINGLY PREVALENT

LOWER/SOME MIDDLE 60S F DEWPOINTS AS FAR NORTH AS THE OH RIVER

VALLEY BY MIDDAY.



INITIALLY...MUCH OF THE DEEPER CONVECTION WILL LIKELY BE FOCUSED

NEAR THE EARLY-DAY SQUALL LINE...WITH WARM SECTOR DEVELOPMENT

INITIALLY TENDING TO BE LIMITED BY 1/ CAPPING ACROSS THE WARM SECTOR

AND 2/ ASCENT TENDING TO BE MAXIMIZED NEAR/BEHIND THE EFFECTIVE

FRONT. HOWEVER...THIS SHOULD CHANGE INTO THE AFTERNOON/EVENING WITH

INCREASING POTENTIAL FOR AT LEAST SOME DEVELOPING/DEEPENING

SEMI-DISCRETE WARM SECTOR CONVECTION AHEAD OF THE SQUALL LINE. SUCH

A SCENARIO /SQUALL LINE-PRECEDING DEVELOPMENT/ COULD INITIALLY OCCUR

ACROSS NORTHEAST LA/FAR EASTERN AR INTO MUCH OF MS/WESTERN TN AND

EVENTUALLY AL BY EVENING COINCIDENT WITH AN INCREASINGLY MOIST AIR

MASS ACROSS THE REGION.



WITHIN THE WARM SECTOR...MLCAPE MAY APPROACH 1500 J/KG OVER A

PORTION OF THE MID-SOUTH/LOWER MS VALLEY...WITH 500-1000 J/KG MLCAPE

FARTHER NORTH INTO PARTS OF MO/IL/INDIANA MONDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING.

THE TENDENCY WILL BE FOR MID/UPPER WINDS TO BACK WITH TIME AS THE

UPPER TROUGH AMPLIFIES AND PROGRESSES EASTWARD. ACTIVITY WILL REMAIN

EMBEDDED WITHIN STRONG DEEP-LAYER WINDS WITH 40-50 KT EFFECTIVE

SHEAR AND SIZABLE 0-2 KM HODOGRAPHS SUPPORTIVE OF AN OVERALL

MIXED-MOVED OF ORGANIZED STORMS INCLUDING BOW ECHO AND SUPERCELL

STRUCTURES. DAMAGING WIND AND SOME TORNADOES WILL BE THE MAIN

THREATS...A COUPLE OF WHICH COULD BE STRONG AMID A STRONG LOW-LEVEL

SRH ENVIRONMENT. PORTIONS OF THE REGION MAY WARRANT A MODERATE RISK

UPGRADE IN DAY 1 OUTLOOKS PENDING SUBSEQUENT EARLY-DAY SQUALL LINE

DETAILS...ALONG WITH A GREATER CONFIDENCE IN APPRECIABLE WARM SECTOR

DEVELOPMENT PRECEDING THE SQUALL LINE/ASSOCIATED OUTFLOW.



THE SEVERE THREAT SHOULD CONTINUE INTO THE OVERNIGHT FROM THE GULF

COASTAL STATES INTO THE TN AND OH VALLEYS...BUT THE OVERALL RISK

SHOULD BECOME MORE ISOLATED WITH NORTHWARD/EASTWARD EXTENT MONDAY

NIGHT.



..GUYER.. 10/12/2014

Graphics coming shortly:

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK

NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK

0100 AM CDT MON OCT 13 2014



VALID 131200Z - 141200Z



..THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PARTS OF NRN LA...AR

SE

MO...NW MS...WRN TN...WRN KY AND FAR SRN IL...



...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE SRN

PLAINS...OZARKS...LOWER MS VALLEY...MID MS VALLEY...CNTRL GULF COAST

STATES...TN VALLEY AND OH VALLEY...



..SUMMARY



NUMEROUS STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TODAY AND

TONIGHT FROM EAST TEXAS THROUGH THE LOWER AND MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI

VALLEY INTO PARTS OF THE TENNESSEE VALLEY...OHIO VALLEY AND GULF

COAST STATES. WIDESPREAD DAMAGING WINDS...SOME TORNADOES AND HAIL

WILL LIKELY OCCUR.



..LOWER TO MID MS VALLEY



AN IMPRESSIVE UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH WILL MOVE EWD ACROSS THE SRN PLAINS

TODAY AS A 65 TO 80 KT MID-LEVEL JET ROUNDS THE BASE OF THE

UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH AND MOVES ACROSS THE ARKLATEX AND OZARKS. AT THE

SFC...A LOW WILL MOVE NEWD ACROSS MO AS A COLD FRONT ADVANCES

QUICKLY EWD ACROSS ERN OK AND EAST TX. A SQUALL-LINE WILL BE ONGOING

AHEAD OF THE FRONT AT THE START OF THE PERIOD FROM SW MO SWD ACROSS

WRN AR AND EXTENDING SWWD INTO NE TX. THIS SQUALL-LINE WILL MOVE

QUICKLY EWD INTO THE LOWER TO MID MS VALLEY TODAY RESULTING IN

WIDESPREAD SEVERE WEATHER.



AHEAD OF THE SQUALL-LINE...A WELL-DEVELOPED 50 TO 65 KT LOW-LEVEL

JET WILL HELP REINFORCE A CORRIDOR OF LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE EXTENDING

NWD ACROSS THE ERN HALF OF AR INTO SERN MO THIS MORNING. SFC

DEWPOINTS ALONG THIS CORRIDOR WILL INCREASE INTO THE MID TO UPPER

60S F ALLOWING MODERATE INSTABILITY TO DEVELOP ACROSS PARTS OF SRN

AND ERN AR THIS MORNING. WARMING SFC TEMPS DURING THE DAY AND

INCREASING LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE SHOULD ENABLE THE SQUALL-LINE TO

GRADUALLY INTENSIFY PRODUCING A WIDESPREAD WIND DAMAGE THREAT. A

POTENTIAL FOR WIND GUSTS OF GREATER THAN 65 KNOTS WILL EXIST THIS

MORNING INTO THIS AFTERNOON AS THE LINE MOVES ACROSS THE MODERATE

RISK AREA. TORNADOES MAY ALSO OCCUR WITH ROTATING CELLS EMBEDDED IN

THE LINE. THE GREATEST TORNADO THREAT SHOULD DEVELOP ACROSS ERN

AR...NW MS AND FAR WRN TN LATE THIS MORNING INTO EARLY AFTERNOON AS

SFC TEMPS WARM AND THE LOW- AND MID-LEVEL JETS BECOME COUPLED AHEAD

OF THE APPROACHING UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH. ALTHOUGH THE MODERATE RISK

AREA IS DRIVEN BY WIND...A STRONG TORNADO OR TWO CAN NOT BE RULED

OUT WITH SUPERCELLS THAT CAN FORM IN OR AHEAD OF THE LINE.



..LOWER OH VALLEY/SRN GREAT LAKES



SOUTHWEST MID-LEVEL FLOW WILL BE IN PLACE TODAY ACROSS THE LOWER OH

VALLEY AND SRN GREAT LAKES REGION AS A SHORTWAVE RIDGE MOVES NEWD

AWAY FROM THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON. AT THE SFC...WINDS WILL BE

SSELY...HELPING TO REINFORCE A CORRIDOR OF LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE

LOCATED FROM THE MID MS VALLEY NNEWD INTO THE SRN GREAT LAKES REGION

WHERE INSTABILITY WILL INCREASE AROUND MIDDAY. NAM FORECASTS SUGGEST

THAT SBCAPE COULD REACH THE 1000 TO 1500 J/KG RANGE AS FAR NORTH AS

CNTRL INDIANA. ALTHOUGH A SQUALL-LINE WILL MOVE INTO WRN PARTS OF

THE REGION THIS MORNING...SOME THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY MAY DEVELOP

WELL AHEAD OF THE LINE AS INSTABILITY INCREASES.



FORECAST SOUNDINGS AT SPRINGFIELD IL AND INDIANAPOLIS AT 18Z SHOW 40

KT OF DEEP LAYER SHEAR WITH LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATES APPROACHING 7.0

C/KM. THIS MAY BE ENOUGH FOR A WIND DAMAGE THREAT WITH THE STRONGER

MULTICELLS THIS MORNING. AS A SFC LOW MOVES INTO THE MID MS VALLEY

THIS AFTERNOON...THE NRN END OF A SQUALL-LINE IS EXPECTED TO MOVE

INTO THE LOWER OH VALLEY. THIS WILL LIKELY RESULT IN A WIND DAMAGE

THREAT THIS AFTERNOON WITH A FEW WIND GUSTS GREATER THAN 65 KT

POSSIBLE.



..GULF COAST



AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH WILL MOVE ACROSS THE SRN PLAINS TODAY AS A

COLD FRONT MOVES QUICKLY EWD INTO CNTRL AND ERN TX. A SQUALL-LINE

WILL LIKELY BE ONGOING AHEAD OF THE FRONT ACROSS ECNTRL TX AT THE

START OF THE PERIOD WITH THIS FEATURE MOVING EWD INTO LA THIS

AFTERNOON. FORECAST SOUNDINGS FOR BATON ROUGE AT 18Z SHOW SFC

DEWPOINTS NEAR 70 F...MLCAPE NEAR 1500 J/KG AND 45 KT OF 0-6 KM

SHEAR. THIS SHOULD SUPPORT A WIND DAMAGE THREAT WITH BOWING LINE

SEGMENTS EMBEDDED IN THE SQUALL-LINE. DUE TO THE INSTABILITY...HAIL

WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE WITH THE MORE INTENSE PARTS OF THE LINE.

LOW-LEVEL FLOW WILL BE STRONGER WITH NWD EXTENT MAKING THE GREATEST

WIND DAMAGE THREAT ACROSS NRN PARTS OF THE REGION FROM CNTRL AND NRN

LA EWD INTO CNTRL MS.



..BROYLES/LEITMAN.. 10/13/2014

James Spann:

SEL6

URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
TORNADO WATCH NUMBER 536
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1110 AM CDT MON OCT 13 2014

THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A

* TORNADO WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF
SOUTHWEST AND SOUTH CENTRAL LOUISIANA
SOUTHEAST TEXAS
COASTAL WATERS

* EFFECTIVE THIS MONDAY MORNING AND EVENING FROM 1110 AM UNTIL
700 PM CDT.

* PRIMARY THREATS INCLUDE...
A COUPLE TORNADOES POSSIBLE
SCATTERED DAMAGING WIND GUSTS TO 70 MPH POSSIBLE
ISOLATED LARGE HAIL EVENTS TO 1.5 INCHES IN DIAMETER POSSIBLE

THE TORNADO WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 90 STATUTE
MILES EAST AND WEST OF A LINE FROM 25 MILES NORTHEAST OF FORT
POLK LOUISIANA TO 40 MILES SOUTHEAST OF PORT ARTHUR TEXAS. FOR A
COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE THE ASSOCIATED WATCH OUTLINE
UPDATE (WOUS64 KWNS WOU6).

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

REMEMBER...A TORNADO WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE FAVORABLE FOR
TORNADOES AND SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH
AREA. PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR
THREATENING WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS
AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS.

&&

TORNADO WATCH OUTLINE UPDATE FOR WT 538
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
140 PM CDT MON OCT 13 2014

TORNADO WATCH 538 IS IN EFFECT UNTIL 1000 PM CDT FOR THE
FOLLOWING LOCATIONS

LAC005-007-033-037-047-051-057-063-071-075-077-087-089-091-093-
095-103-105-109-117-121-125-140300-
/O.NEW.KWNS.TO.A.0538.141013T1840Z-141014T0300Z/

LA
. LOUISIANA PARISHES INCLUDED ARE

ASCENSION ASSUMPTION EAST BATON ROUGE
EAST FELICIANA IBERVILLE JEFFERSON
LAFOURCHE LIVINGSTON ORLEANS
PLAQUEMINES POINTE COUPEE ST. BERNARD
ST. CHARLES ST. HELENA ST. JAMES
ST. JOHN THE BAPTIST ST. TAMMANY TANGIPAHOA
TERREBONNE WASHINGTON WEST BATON ROUGE
WEST FELICIANA

MS

. MISSISSIPPI COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE

AMITE GEORGE GREENE
HANCOCK HARRISON JACKSON
PEARL RIVER PERRY PIKE
STONE WALTHALL WAYNE

WILKINSON





GMZ530-532-534-536-538-140300-

/O.NEW.KWNS.TO.A.0538.141013T1840Z-141014T0300Z/



CW



. ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS INCLUDED ARE

LAKE PONTCHARTRAIN AND LAKE MAUREPAS

MISSISSIPPI SOUND

LAKE BORGNE

CHANDELEUR SOUND

BRETON SOUND



ATTN...WFO...LIX...MOB...




$$

Apparently a building on the campus of Louisiana Tech lost part of its roof (Harper for those who went there). The radar hole up there is dangerous and I am getting some indications of a potential for tornado damage (to backup the confirmed above). The surveys will be interesting up there.