MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0050 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0135 PM CST SUN FEB 01 2015
AREAS AFFECTED...LOWER MI...NRN IND...NRN OH...NWRN PA
CONCERNING...HEAVY SNOW
VALID 011935Z - 020130Z
SUMMARY...SNOW RATES OF 1 INCH PER HOUR WILL SPREAD ACROSS SRN LOWER MI/NRN INDIANA TOWARD THE LAKE SHORE OF NWRN PA BY LATE AFTERNOON.
DISCUSSION...SFC LOW IS PROGRESSING EAST ACROSS CNTRL IL WITH POSITION JUST SOUTH OF BMI AT 19Z. A WELL-DEVELOPED EAST-WEST SNOW BAND...ROUGHLY 150 MI WIDE...EXTENDS NORTH OF THE LOW TOWARD THE WRN PART OF LAKE ERIE. SNOW RATES ALONG THIS CORRIDOR SHOULD EASILY APPROACH 1 INCH PER HOUR AS WARM ADVECTION/ASCENT BEGIN TO SPREAD TOWARD THE LOWER GREAT LAKES. ADDITIONALLY...COOLER PROFILES ACROSS LOWER MI COULD RESULT IN LOCALLY HIGHER SNOW RATES...PER SFC TEMPERATURES HOVERING IN THE LOWER 20S. LATEST SHORT-RANGE MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN GENERAL AGREEMENT SFC LOW SHOULD TRACK TO JUST NORTH OF IND BY 02/00Z...THEN INTO NERN OH NEAR CAK BY 02/06Z. HEAVIEST SNOW SHOULD REMAIN NORTH OF THIS PROJECTED TRACK WITH SUBSEQUENT HEAVIER RATES SPREADING INTO WRN NY LATER THIS EVENING.
..DARROW.. 02/01/2015
Hammond, LA NWS COOP ID: 16-7425-08 CoCoRaHs ID: LA-TG-23
I'm inside the blue circle, but I wish it were a few degrees colder--33-34 right now with moderately heavy snow, but we'd get better ratios and less melting if it was 28 rather than 33. The back side will be colder and windier.
Last Edit: Feb 1, 2015 13:55:19 GMT -6 by SKYSUMMIT: fixed quote
SKYSUMMIT President | Director of OperationsAdministrator
Hey guys. Traveling to New York on Thursday evening and wanted to get your opinions on traveling that day. Looks like there is snow/ice potential, but having trouble determining how serious it might be. Temps will be frigid while I'm there, but I'm more worried about flight issues. Thanks.
SKYSUMMIT President | Director of OperationsAdministrator
Hey guys. Traveling to New York on Thursday evening and wanted to get your opinions on traveling that day. Looks like there is snow/ice potential, but having trouble determining how serious it might be. Temps will be frigid while I'm there, but I'm more worried about flight issues. Thanks.
Thursday will have a few snow showers in the New York area, but Friday looks like the big day with another Nor'Easter event taking place.
Hammond, LA NWS COOP ID: 16-7425-08 CoCoRaHs ID: LA-TG-23
Tonight's 00z NAM has freezing temperature from Lafayette, east through the I-12 corridor, but not any farther south than that. The 00z GFS will be rolling soon to see if it stays cold, adds fun, brings a heat ridge over us, or has a tropical storm making landfall next week.
Hammond, LA NWS COOP ID: 16-7425-08 CoCoRaHs ID: LA-TG-23
Tonight's 00z NAM has freezing temperature from Lafayette, east through the I-12 corridor, but not any farther south than that. The 00z GFS will be rolling soon to see if it stays cold, adds fun, brings a heat ridge over us, or has a tropical storm making landfall next week.
LOL!!! Please let us know, thanks!
Blowin' harp!
SKYSUMMIT President | Director of OperationsAdministrator
Ok...short term, it's still on tap for freezing temps north of the I-10 corridor this Friday morning with the side swipe of the first shot of Arctic air so at least that's one place of consistency.
Last Edit: Feb 10, 2015 22:09:53 GMT -6 by SKYSUMMIT
Hammond, LA NWS COOP ID: 16-7425-08 CoCoRaHs ID: LA-TG-23