^^^^I almost gave up on the idea that El Nino was going to be declared sooner than later, it only took 7 months, lol. Looks like Modoki, will it continue through the summer? Could be a big difference for the Atlantic Hurricane season if it stays Modoki looking or not.
Tropical cyclone activity may lead to further ocean warming
Issued on 17 March 2015 | Product Code IDCKGEWW00
The past fortnight has seen unusual conditions in the tropical Pacific, which may increase the chance of El Niño in 2015.
In the western Pacific, severe tropical cyclone Pam and tropical storm Bavi* straddled the equator, producing one of the strongest reversals in the trade winds in recent years. This change is expected to increase the already warm sub-surface temperatures currently observed in the tropical Pacific Ocean, which may in turn raise tropical Pacific Ocean surface temperatures in the coming months. However, it remains too early to say whether the reversal in the trade winds is a short term fluctuation or the beginning of a sustained trend.
International models surveyed by the Bureau have strengthened their outlooks for the likelihood of El Niño, with all eight models suggesting ocean temperatures will exceed El Niño thresholds by mid-year. However, model outlooks spanning the traditional ENSO transition period, February to May, generally have lower accuracy than outlooks made at other times of year.
The Bureau's ENSO Tracker remains at El Niño WATCH. This is due to a combination of warmer-than-average sub-surface temperatures in the tropical Pacific Ocean and models indicating that central and eastern tropical Pacific will warm to El Niño thresholds by mid-year. An El Niño WATCH indicates that there is about a 50% chance of El Niño forming in 2015—double the normal likelihood of an event.
El Niño is often associated with below-average winter–spring rainfall over eastern Australia and above-average daytime temperatures over the southern half of Australia.
SKYSUMMIT: I'm hoping we're shoveling snow for Christmas
Nov 16, 2022 14:58:12 GMT -6
stormydds: Thanks for your reply... as usual
Nov 5, 2022 11:37:29 GMT -6
Zack Fradella: Yea, Lezak had a paper peer reviewed and published a year or so ago.
Nov 5, 2022 9:03:24 GMT -6
stormydds: Thanks for your response. I felt that is the case. that's too bad. Has there been any peer reviewed papers on the LRC hypothesis?
Nov 4, 2022 14:01:51 GMT -6
Zack Fradella: Not sure, the LRC is something that takes a lot of work to follow and keep up with. It's not as easy as looking at the parameters and making a forecast. This deters many from even giving it a chance. Also, there is some doubt from the weather world.
Nov 4, 2022 3:38:49 GMT -6
stormydds: Zack, a friend had a meeting in Lafayette which Rob Perillo spoke.He asked him why the LRC is not used to forecast hurricanes by NOAA.His answer was that Lezak won't share the info.I saw the podcast you and David made with Gary.He seemed open.What gives?
Nov 3, 2022 14:39:19 GMT -6
SKYSUMMIT: Man I really hope that rain moves quickly on Saturday. I'm so pumped for 6 hours of awesome college football!
Nov 3, 2022 7:15:01 GMT -6
PinkFreud - Nola FQ: Been unblocked. Dylan says that the station took major damage, so no idea when they'll even be able to stream again, or be on the air. Hopefully, they will at least let their employees deal with their own property issues!
Oct 2, 2022 18:17:35 GMT -6
gullywasher: Seriously, must we deal with Bruce Katz at noon, 4, 5 AND 9. ?
Sept 30, 2022 20:03:25 GMT -6
PinkFreud - Nola FQ: According to another met on twitter, the kitten was rescued by a producer who's adopting it. Of course that hasn't stopped the angry mob, with torches and pitchforks, who are insisting that it's a lie.
Sept 29, 2022 17:48:05 GMT -6
nolachic: Pink - he's probably blocking people he doesn't personally know to keep his cell charged and to get his head straight, and I'm sure he is beyond exhausted.
Sept 29, 2022 9:23:35 GMT -6
SKYSUMMIT: I sent him a message yesterday as well, but he hasn't seen it.
Sept 29, 2022 5:46:06 GMT -6
PinkFreud - Nola FQ: Oh hell, I meant for that to be a message!
Sept 28, 2022 19:38:19 GMT -6
PinkFreud - Nola FQ: Dylan is taking a beating on Twitter. I just tried to send him a message of support, since we've been following each other for years, and HE BLOCKED ME!!!!!! Somebody who can get to him needs to do so, pronto!!! I'm very worried about him.
Sept 28, 2022 19:37:27 GMT -6
HarahanTim - Now in Covington!: Hmmm, I will say. that somewhere back there, we have stored the "Tums" icon, for those that give a prediction based on their "gut"!
Sept 24, 2022 11:38:12 GMT -6
T-man: Gully, no one here cares about your tender friggin' heart, ya big snoflake!!! :horns: :horns: :horns: :tongue:
Sept 24, 2022 10:24:18 GMT -6
ECMWF March forecast is for a strong El Nino for the Summer and Fall but EC has busted in the past so we will see.
