ENSO Updates Thread

We heard this before right? ECMWF March forecast is for a strong El Nino for the Summer and Fall but EC has busted in the past so we will see.

The Aussies update of 3/17/15.

Tropical cyclone activity may lead to further ocean warming

Issued on 17 March 2015 | Product Code IDCKGEWW00

The past fortnight has seen unusual conditions in the tropical Pacific, which may increase the chance of El Niño in 2015.

In the western Pacific, severe tropical cyclone Pam and tropical storm Bavi* straddled the equator, producing one of the strongest reversals in the trade winds in recent years. This change is expected to increase the already warm sub-surface temperatures currently observed in the tropical Pacific Ocean, which may in turn raise tropical Pacific Ocean surface temperatures in the coming months. However, it remains too early to say whether the reversal in the trade winds is a short term fluctuation or the beginning of a sustained trend.

International models surveyed by the Bureau have strengthened their outlooks for the likelihood of El Niño, with all eight models suggesting ocean temperatures will exceed El Niño thresholds by mid-year. However, model outlooks spanning the traditional ENSO transition period, February to May, generally have lower accuracy than outlooks made at other times of year.

The Bureau's ENSO Tracker remains at El Niño WATCH. This is due to a combination of warmer-than-average sub-surface temperatures in the tropical Pacific Ocean and models indicating that central and eastern tropical Pacific will warm to El Niño thresholds by mid-year. An El Niño WATCH indicates that there is about a 50% chance of El Niño forming in 2015—double the normal likelihood of an event.

El Niño is often associated with below-average winter–spring rainfall over eastern Australia and above-average daytime temperatures over the southern half of Australia.

www.bom.gov.au/climate/enso/#tabs=Overview

CPC weekly update of 3/23/15 has El Nino at +0.6C.

www.cpc.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/lanina/enso_evolution-status-fcsts-web.pdf

CPC weekly update of 3/30/15 has El Nino at +0.6C and that is the same as last week's update.

www.cpc.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/lanina/enso_evolution-status-fcsts-web.pdf

CPC April update has El Nino Advisory. Uncertainty continues about how strong El Nino will be by Summer and Fall.

www.cpc.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/enso_advisory/ensodisc.html

The mid april update of the ENSO models have Moderate El Nino by ASO.