CPC Febuary 2/11/16 update has El Nino fading by the Spring or early Summer.
EL NIÑO/SOUTHERN OSCILLATION (ENSO)
DIAGNOSTIC DISCUSSION
issued by
CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER/NCEP/NWS
and the International Research Institute for Climate and Society
11 February 2016
ENSO Alert System Status: El Niño Advisory
Synopsis: A transition to ENSO-neutral is likely during late Northern Hemisphere spring or early summer 2016, with a possible transition to La Niña conditions during the fall.
Indicative of a strong El Niño, sea surface temperature (SSTs) anomalies were in excess of 2°C across the east-central equatorial Pacific Ocean during January (Fig. 1). The Niño indices in the eastern Pacific declined, while Niño-3.4 and Niño-4 were nearly unchanged (Fig. 2). The subsurface temperatures in the central and eastern Pacific increased due to a downwelling Kelvin wave (Fig. 3), but toward the end of the month weakened again in assocation with the eastward shift of below-average temperatures at depth in the central Pacific (Fig. 4). Also, low-level westerly wind anomalies and upper-level easterly wind anomalies continued over much of the tropical Pacific. The traditional and equatorial Southern Oscillation Index (SOI) values remained negative but weakened relative to last month. Convection remained much enhanced over the central and east-central tropical Pacific and suppressed over Indonesia (Fig. 5). Collectively, these anomalies reflect the continuation of a strong El Niño.
Most models indicate that El Niño will weaken, with a transition to ENSO-neutral during the late spring or early summer 2016 (Fig. 6). Thereafter, the chance of La Niña conditions increases into the fall. While there is both model and physical support for La Niña following strong El Niño, considerable uncertainty remains. A transition to ENSO-neutral is likely during late Northern Hemisphere spring or early summer 2016, with a possible transition to La Niña conditions during the fall (click CPC/IRI consensus forecast for the chance of each outcome for each 3-month period).
Last Edit: Feb 11, 2016 8:58:15 GMT -6 by cycloneye
The Mid Febuary plume of models continue to have El Nino going away by May,June and July period and Neutral takes over.The yellow consensus line doesn't go to barely La Nina until after October,November and December.
The March CPC update says El Nino will fade by late Spring or early Summer and La Nina may arrive by the fall.There is a 50% chance of La Nina by ASO.
EL NIÑO/SOUTHERN OSCILLATION (ENSO)
DIAGNOSTIC DISCUSSION
issued by
CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER/NCEP/NWS
and the International Research Institute for Climate and Society
10 March 2016
ENSO Alert System Status: El Niño Advisory
Synopsis: A transition to ENSO-neutral is likely during late Northern Hemisphere spring or early summer 2016, with close to a 50 percen chance for La Niña conditions to develop by the fall.
Sea surface temperature (SST) anomalies decreased across most of the central and eastern equatorial Pacific Ocean during February (Fig. 1). The latest Niño-3.4 and Niño-3 weekly values were near 2°C, while the Niño-4 and Niño-1+2 indices were 1°C and 1.4°C respectively (Fig. 2). The subsurface temperature anomalies in the central and eastern Pacific decreased substantially (Fig. 3) in association with the eastward shift of below-average temperatures at depth (Fig. 4). Low-level westerly wind anomalies and upper-level easterly wind anomalies continued, but were weaker relative to January. The traditional and equatorial Southern Oscillation Index (SOI) remained strongly negative. In addition, convection was much enhanced over the central and east-central tropical Pacific and suppressed over parts of Indonesia and northern Australia (Fig. 5). Collectively, these anomalies reflect the continuation of a strong El Niño.
All models indicate that El Niño will weaken, with a transition to ENSO-neutral likely during the late spring or early summer 2016 (Fig. 6). Thereafter, the chance of La Niña conditions increases into the fall. While there is both model and physical support for La Niña following a strong El Niño, considerable uncertainty remains. A transition to ENSO-neutral is likely during late Northern Hemisphere spring or early summer 2016, with close to a 50 percen chance for La Niña conditions to develop by the fall (click CPC/IRI consensus forecast for the chance of each outcome for each 3-month period).
The Mid March update of all the ENSO models now have between 43% (La Nina) and 44% (Neutral) probabilities by ASO.This is somewhat below what they had earlier this month when it was at 50% of having La Nina by ASO.The Mid-March plume shows a more spread graphic that is mainly caused to the Spring Barrier that is the period when is more difficult to predict.
CPC ups to 65% in the April update for La Nina in the second half of 2016
Synopsis: A transition to ENSO-neutral is likely during late Northern Hemisphere spring or early summer 2016, with an increasing chance of La Niña during the second half of the year.
Sea surface temperature (SST) anomalies were between 1.0° and 1.5°C across most of the central and eastern equatorial Pacific Ocean during early April (Fig. 1), having weakened appreciably over the last month. The latest weekly values for all of the Niño indices dropped to below 1.5°C (Fig. 2). The subsurface temperature anomaly in the central and eastern Pacific decreased to negative values (Fig. 3) in association with a significant expansion of below-average temperatures at depth (Fig. 4). Low-level westerly wind anomalies and upper-level easterly wind anomalies weakened compared to February. The equatorial Southern Oscillation Index (SOI) remained negative but weakened, while the traditional SOI was near zero. Enhanced convection continued over the central tropical Pacific but weakened east of the Date Line, and was suppressed over northern Indonesia and the Philippines (Fig. 5). Collectively, these anomalies reflect a weakening El Niño.
Nearly all models predict further weakening of El Niño, with a transition to ENSO-neutral likely during late spring or early summer 2016 (Fig. 6). Then, the chance of La Niña increases during the late summer or early fall. The official forecast is consistent with the model forecasts, also supported by a historical tendency for La Niña to follow strong El Niño events. A transition to ENSO-neutral is likely during late Northern Hemisphere spring or early summer 2016, with an increasing chance of La Niña during the second half of the year (click CPC/IRI consensus forecast for the chance of each outcome for each 3-month period).
The Mid May update of the ENSO plume and probabilities of having La Nina has it at 58% by ASO. The ENSO Mid May plume after going down it stalls for months between weak to Moderate La Nina going into 2017.
The final El Nino advisory was written by CPC in the 6/9/16 monthly update.Now Neutral conditions are present and La Nina is expected sometime in the Summer.