Daily General Weather Discussion Thread #14

SKYSUMMIT
Administrator

President | Director of Operations

Posts: 67,639

Location: Ponchatoula, LA

Staff Member

Daily General Weather Discussion Thread #14 Mar 9, 2015 14:02:03 GMT -6

Post by SKYSUMMIT on Mar 9, 2015 14:02:03 GMT -6

New Flood Watch issued:

FLOOD WATCH
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
300 PM CDT MON MAR 9 2015

...FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT THROUGH EARLY TUESDAY AFTERNOON...

.A LARGE AND SLOW MOVING UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE OVER TEXAS AND
SURFACE LOW OFF THE TEXAS COAST WILL CONTINUE TO GENERATE A LARGE
AREA OF SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY. THESE
SYSTEMS WILL BRING THE POTENTIAL FOR VERY HEAVY RAINFALL THROUGH
SUNDAY AFTERNOON.

LAZ027-028-030-031-TXZ180-201-259>262-100600-
/O.NEW.KLCH.FF.A.0001.150310T0000Z-150310T1800Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
VERNON-RAPIDES-BEAUREGARD-ALLEN-TYLER-HARDIN-NORTHERN JASPER-
NORTHERN NEWTON-SOUTHERN JASPER-SOUTHERN NEWTON-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...LEESVILLE...NEW LLANO...ALEXANDRIA...
PINEVILLE...DE RIDDER...OAKDALE...KINDER...WOODVILLE...
COLMESNEIL...LUMBERTON...SILSBEE...JASPER...KIRBYVILLE...NEWTON...
BUNA...DEWEYVILLE
300 PM CDT MON MAR 9 2015

...FLASH FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT FROM 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING THROUGH
TUESDAY AFTERNOON...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN LAKE CHARLES HAS ISSUED A

* FLASH FLOOD WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF LOUISIANA AND SOUTHEAST
TEXAS...INCLUDING THE FOLLOWING AREAS...IN LOUISIANA...ALLEN...
BEAUREGARD...RAPIDES AND VERNON. IN SOUTHEAST TEXAS...
HARDIN... NORTHERN JASPER...NORTHERN NEWTON...SOUTHERN
JASPER...SOUTHERN NEWTON AND TYLER.

* FROM 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY AFTERNOON

* RAIN COVERAGE AND INTENSITY WILL INCREASE ACROSS SOUTHEAST
TEXAS...WESTERN AND CENTRAL LOUISIANA THIS EVENING...BECOMING
WIDESPREAD OVERNIGHT INTO TUESDAY. A LONG DURATION OF MODERATE
TO SOMETIMES HEAVY RAIN WILL OCCUR ACROSS THESE AREAS. ONE TO
TWO INCHES OF RAINFALL HAS ALREADY FALLEN ACROSS THIS AREA. AN
ADDITIONAL AREAL AVERAGE OF 2 TO 3 INCHES OF RAINFALL IS
EXPECTED IN THE WATCH AREA...WITH ISOLATED HIGHER AMOUNTS. THESE
RAINFALL TOTALS WILL CREATE THE POTENTIAL FOR ISSUES WITH
EXCESSIVE RUNOFF.

* POTENTIAL IMPACTS OF FLOODING...WATER COVERING LOW LYING AND
POOR DRAINAGE ROADWAYS AND UNDERPASSES. RAPID INCREASES IN SMALL
STREAMS...CREEKS AND BAYOUS.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A FLASH FLOOD WATCH MEANS THAT CONDITIONS MAY DEVELOP THAT LEAD
TO FLASH FLOODING. FLASH FLOODING IS A VERY DANGEROUS SITUATION.

YOU SHOULD MONITOR LATER FORECASTS AND BE PREPARED TO TAKE ACTION
SHOULD FLASH FLOOD WARNINGS BE ISSUED.

Buying or Selling Real Estate?--->scottguidry.com
United Real Estate Partners - New Orleans / North Shore
Scott Guidry, Realtor, ABR, AHWD, AWREP, C2EX
Click HERE To Download My FREE MLS Touch App!
NWS COOP ID: 16-7425-08
CoCoRaHs ID: LA-TG-23

SKYSUMMIT
Administrator

President | Director of Operations

Posts: 67,639

Location: Ponchatoula, LA

Staff Member

Daily General Weather Discussion Thread #14 Mar 9, 2015 14:45:20 GMT -6

Post by SKYSUMMIT on Mar 9, 2015 14:45:20 GMT -6

MARGINAL RISK INTRODUCED FOR TODAY AND TOMORROW:

...THERE IS A MRGL RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS SOUTHEAST LA AND FAR SRN
MS FOR LATE TONIGHT/EARLY TUESDAY MORNING...

...SUMMARY...
A FEW STRONG TO POSSIBLY SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS MAY AFFECT PORTIONS OF
SOUTHEAST LOUISIANA AND FAR SOUTHERN MISSISSIPPI TONIGHT. OTHER
THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE OVER THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES INTO FAR
WESTERN TEXAS...AND ACROSS PARTS OF SOUTH AND EAST TEXAS.

...SRN/ERN TX TO THE LOWER MS VALLEY...
TSTMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP INTO TONIGHT ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE TX
GULF COAST INTO THE LOWER MS VALLEY. ALTHOUGH INSTABILITY IS
EXPECTED TO REMAIN MARGINAL THROUGH 12Z...ESPECIALLY GIVEN POOR
LAPSE RATES...18Z RAP AND RECENT HRRR SUGGEST THE POTENTIAL FOR
TSTMS TO BECOME SURFACE-BASED FROM SERN LA INTO FAR SRN MS TOWARD
12Z. A SLY LLJ IS EXPECTED TO STRENGTHEN TONIGHT FROM EAST TX INTO
THE ADJACENT LOWER MS VALLEY RESULTING IN ENHANCED LOW-LEVEL
HODOGRAPH CURVATURE. THIS WOULD SUPPORT A MARGINAL SEVERE RISK FOR
LOCALLY STRONG WIND GUSTS AND A BRIEF TORNADO COULD NOT BE RULED
OUT.

Buying or Selling Real Estate?--->scottguidry.com
United Real Estate Partners - New Orleans / North Shore
Scott Guidry, Realtor, ABR, AHWD, AWREP, C2EX
Click HERE To Download My FREE MLS Touch App!
NWS COOP ID: 16-7425-08
CoCoRaHs ID: LA-TG-23

SKYSUMMIT
Administrator

President | Director of Operations

Posts: 67,639

Location: Ponchatoula, LA

Staff Member

Daily General Weather Discussion Thread #14 Mar 9, 2015 14:55:54 GMT -6

Post by SKYSUMMIT on Mar 9, 2015 14:55:54 GMT -6

Slidell's Afternoon Hazardous Weather Outlook:

352 PM CDT MON MAR 9 2015

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST
LOUISIANA...SOUTH MISSISSIPPI AND THE ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT

PERIODS OF LIGHT TO MODERATE RAINFALL WITH OCCASIONALLY HEAVY
RAINFALL CAN BE EXPECTED TODAY AND TONIGHT...BUT FLASH FLOODING
IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

A FEW THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE TONIGHT. ONE OR TWO OF THE
STORMS COULD BECOME SEVERE WITH THE PRIMARY THREAT BEING DAMAGING
WIND GUSTS.

MODERATE ONSHORE FLOW WILL RESULT IN HAZARDOUS CONDITIONS FOR
SMALL CRAFT OVER THE COASTAL WATERS THAT ARE GENERALLY EAST OF
PORT FOURCHON...EXCLUDING LAKE PONTCHARTRAIN AND LAKE BORGNE...
THROUGH TONIGHT.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY

SEVERAL PERIODS OF RAIN ARE EXPECTED DURING THE WORK WEEK.
WIDESPREAD RAIN AMOUNTS OF THREE TO FIVE INCHES...WITH ISOLATED
AMOUNTS IN EXCESS OF SIX INCHES ARE POSSIBLE THROUGH THURSDAY
NIGHT. WATER LEVELS ARE LIKELY TO RISE ON AREA RIVERS AND A FLOOD
WATCH MAY BE REQUIRED AT SOME POINT DURING THE WEEK.

ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS MAY OCCUR AT TIMES DURING THE RAINY
PERIOD. ONE OR TWO STORMS COULD BECOME SEVERE ON TUESDAY WITH THE
PRIMARY THREAT BEING DAMAGING WIND GUSTS.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT ANTICIPATED.

Buying or Selling Real Estate?--->scottguidry.com
United Real Estate Partners - New Orleans / North Shore
Scott Guidry, Realtor, ABR, AHWD, AWREP, C2EX
Click HERE To Download My FREE MLS Touch App!
NWS COOP ID: 16-7425-08
CoCoRaHs ID: LA-TG-23

thibodauxwx
GCWX Supporter

Posts: 3,537

Daily General Weather Discussion Thread #14 Mar 9, 2015 15:14:42 GMT -6 gulfbreeze likes this

Post by thibodauxwx on Mar 9, 2015 15:14:42 GMT -6

Mar 8, 2015 8:17:38 GMT -6 ndg said:

Euro is now fairly consistent on the hybrid low pressure to form Tuesday in the Southern GOM and move north towards the LA coast late Wednesday night/early Thursday morning, it will be very interesting, if it was to move over the warmer loop current....

Zack had mentioned this last week while we were watching for the freezing rain, he said in 10 days, the euro was sending us a hurricane, it may not be a hurricane, but looks like he and the model was right, as to a storm of sorts, wow, good going Zack,

Last Edit: Mar 9, 2015 15:23:53 GMT -6 by thibodauxwx

thibodauxwx GCWX Supporter Posts: 3,537	Daily General Weather Discussion Thread #14 Mar 9, 2015 15:22:02 GMT -6 Select Post Deselect Post Link to Post Back to Top Post by thibodauxwx on Mar 9, 2015 15:22:02 GMT -6 I went back and found what Zack had posted, Mar 2, 2015 at 1:35pm Zack Fradella said: In other news, the EURO has a hurricane striking Louisiana in 10 days.

teemickey GCWX Supporter Posts: 160	Daily General Weather Discussion Thread #14 Mar 9, 2015 15:41:49 GMT -6 Select Post Deselect Post Link to Post Back to Top Post by teemickey on Mar 9, 2015 15:41:49 GMT -6 Hi Guys, I know this is a hybrid system trying to form. Is it possible that we could get training rains in NOLA just like when it is a tropical storm? Just curious! Thanks
	I'm a wife, mom of 2 and Grammie of 6!

ndg
GCWX Supporter

Posts: 9,974

Daily General Weather Discussion Thread #14 Mar 9, 2015 15:58:21 GMT -6 roz likes this

Post by ndg on Mar 9, 2015 15:58:21 GMT -6

^^^^^Over the last few days both the Euro and GFS have really backed away on the strength of the low pressure forming in the GOM on Wednesday and move northward towards the LA coast late that night into Thursday morning. It seems to remain weak, but nonetheless there could be some training effects because the pattern as a whole is not moving out the way too fast but I this time is hard to pinpoint exactly where that will happen.

coreyl Category 2 Posts: 519	Daily General Weather Discussion Thread #14 Mar 9, 2015 17:33:09 GMT -6 Select Post Deselect Post Link to Post Back to Top Post by coreyl on Mar 9, 2015 17:33:09 GMT -6 Attachment Deleted and this is only day 1, in Bay Saint Louis.
	Last Edit: Mar 9, 2015 17:33:38 GMT -6 by coreyl

SKYSUMMIT Administrator President \| Director of Operations Posts: 67,639 Location: Ponchatoula, LA Staff Member	Daily General Weather Discussion Thread #14 Mar 9, 2015 18:36:58 GMT -6 Select Post Deselect Post Link to Post Back to Top Post by SKYSUMMIT on Mar 9, 2015 18:36:58 GMT -6
	Buying or Selling Real Estate?--->scottguidry.com United Real Estate Partners - New Orleans / North Shore Scott Guidry, Realtor, ABR, AHWD, AWREP, C2EX Click HERE To Download My FREE MLS Touch App! NWS COOP ID: 16-7425-08 CoCoRaHs ID: LA-TG-23

SKYSUMMIT
Administrator

President | Director of Operations

Posts: 67,639

Location: Ponchatoula, LA

Staff Member

Daily General Weather Discussion Thread #14 Mar 9, 2015 18:51:56 GMT -6

Post by SKYSUMMIT on Mar 9, 2015 18:51:56 GMT -6

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0126
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0748 PM CDT MON MAR 09 2015

AREAS AFFECTED...A SMALL PART OF SERN MS...SERN LA...FAR SWRN AL

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY

VALID 100048Z - 100315Z

PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...5 PERCENT

SUMMARY...THE RISK FOR AN ISOLATED STRONG THUNDERSTORM WITH A DMGG
WIND GUST OR PERHAPS A WEAK/BRIEF TORNADO CANNOT BE ENTIRELY RULED
OUT INTO THE EVENING HOURS. THE RISK WILL REMAIN TOO LOW FOR WW
ISSUANCE.

DISCUSSION...LOW-LEVEL CLOUD MOTIONS OVER THE N-CNTRL GULF OF MEXICO
PER PRE-DUSK VIS IMAGERY IMPLY A N/S-ORIENTED CONFLUENCE AXIS
EXTENDING FROM THE MIDDLE GULF TO THE CHANDELEUR ISLANDS VICINITY.
ASCENT INVOF THIS AXIS CONTINUES TO FOSTER ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
CONVECTION AROUND 60 NM OFFSHORE EXTENDING INLAND INTO SERN MS --
WITH LIGHTNING CONFINED TO AREAS NEAR/S OF A MARINE BOUNDARY
OFFSHORE. WITH LITTLE OVERALL CHANGE IN LOW-LEVEL MASS FIELDS DURING
THE NEXT FEW HOURS...CONVECTION SHOULD CONTINUE TO TRAIN NNEWD/NEWD
WITHIN THIS ZONE OF ASCENT. THE PRIMARY MARINE BOUNDARY LIES
OFFSHORE...AND SHOULD ONLY SLOWLY ADVANCE TOWARD THE COAST DURING
THE NEXT FEW HOURS. THE BOUNDARY SEPARATES DEWPOINTS IN THE LOWER
60S OVER INLAND AREAS WHERE MLCAPE IS NEARLY NEGLIGIBLE...FROM
MIDDLE/UPPER 60S DEWPOINTS OFFSHORE WHERE MORE SUBSTANTIAL SFC-BASED
BUOYANCY EXISTS. CONVECTION SHOULD STRUGGLE TO BECOME ROOTED IN THE
NEAR-SFC LAYER AS IT MOVES ONSHORE AND ENCOUNTERS A NOCTURNALLY
COOLING/STABILIZING PBL.

HOWEVER...THE MOB VWP SAMPLES SUBSTANTIAL VEERING OF THE LOW-LEVEL
WIND PROFILE SUPPORTING AMPLE LOW-LEVEL SHEAR /AROUND 25 KT OF BULK
WIND DIFFERENCE IN THE 0-1-KM LAYER/ AND MARKED LOW-LEVEL HODOGRAPH
CURVATURE. STORM-SCALE CIRCULATIONS ATTENDANT TO HYDRODYNAMIC
PRESSURE PERTURBATIONS ESTABLISHED OFFSHORE -- WHERE SFC-BASED
EFFECTIVE INFLOW LAYERS EXIST -- MAY ENCOURAGE A LOW POTENTIAL FOR
AN ISOLATED DMGG WIND GUST AND/OR BRIEF/WEAK TORNADO THROUGHOUT THE
EVENING HOURS. HOWEVER...THE LACK OF GREATER SFC-BASED BUOYANCY
INLAND WITH GROWING STATIC STABILITY WILL BE DETRIMENTAL FOR A MORE
ROBUST SVR-TSTM RISK.

..COHEN/HART.. 03/10/2015

ATTN...WFO...MOB...JAN...LIX...

Buying or Selling Real Estate?--->scottguidry.com
United Real Estate Partners - New Orleans / North Shore
Scott Guidry, Realtor, ABR, AHWD, AWREP, C2EX
Click HERE To Download My FREE MLS Touch App!
NWS COOP ID: 16-7425-08
CoCoRaHs ID: LA-TG-23

SKYSUMMIT Administrator President \| Director of Operations Posts: 67,639 Location: Ponchatoula, LA Staff Member	Daily General Weather Discussion Thread #14 Mar 9, 2015 20:37:04 GMT -6 Select Post Deselect Post Link to Post Back to Top Post by SKYSUMMIT on Mar 9, 2015 20:37:04 GMT -6
	Buying or Selling Real Estate?--->scottguidry.com United Real Estate Partners - New Orleans / North Shore Scott Guidry, Realtor, ABR, AHWD, AWREP, C2EX Click HERE To Download My FREE MLS Touch App! NWS COOP ID: 16-7425-08 CoCoRaHs ID: LA-TG-23

SKYSUMMIT Administrator President \| Director of Operations Posts: 67,639 Location: Ponchatoula, LA Staff Member	Daily General Weather Discussion Thread #14 Mar 9, 2015 21:02:25 GMT -6 Briella - Houma and weather2a like this Select Post Deselect Post Link to Post Back to Top Post by SKYSUMMIT on Mar 9, 2015 21:02:25 GMT -6 We have a train setting up in southwest Louisiana:
	Buying or Selling Real Estate?--->scottguidry.com United Real Estate Partners - New Orleans / North Shore Scott Guidry, Realtor, ABR, AHWD, AWREP, C2EX Click HERE To Download My FREE MLS Touch App! NWS COOP ID: 16-7425-08 CoCoRaHs ID: LA-TG-23

gulfbreeze Category 3 Posts: 619	Daily General Weather Discussion Thread #14 Mar 10, 2015 0:55:41 GMT -6 Select Post Deselect Post Link to Post Back to Top Post by gulfbreeze on Mar 10, 2015 0:55:41 GMT -6 Mar 9, 2015 21:02:25 GMT -6 SKYSUMMIT said: We have a train setting up in southwest Louisiana: Choo Choo - all aboard, thundering and pouring at the moment.
	Not a professional forecast by any means and should not be viewed as such - just my opinion. Audrey'57, Carla'61 Hilda'64, Betsy'65, Edith'71, Carmen'74, Danny'85, Juan'85, Andrew'92, Iniki'92 (while on vacation in Kauai), Lili'02, Rita'05, Gustav'08, Ike'08, No-Name'16, Harvey'17, Barry'19, Laura'20, Delta'20, Ida'21.

SKYSUMMIT Administrator President \| Director of Operations Posts: 67,639 Location: Ponchatoula, LA Staff Member	Daily General Weather Discussion Thread #14 Mar 10, 2015 5:52:04 GMT -6 Select Post Deselect Post Link to Post Back to Top Post by SKYSUMMIT on Mar 10, 2015 5:52:04 GMT -6
	Buying or Selling Real Estate?--->scottguidry.com United Real Estate Partners - New Orleans / North Shore Scott Guidry, Realtor, ABR, AHWD, AWREP, C2EX Click HERE To Download My FREE MLS Touch App! NWS COOP ID: 16-7425-08 CoCoRaHs ID: LA-TG-23

SKYSUMMIT Administrator President \| Director of Operations Posts: 67,639 Location: Ponchatoula, LA Staff Member	Daily General Weather Discussion Thread #14 Mar 10, 2015 6:28:38 GMT -6 Select Post Deselect Post Link to Post Back to Top Post by SKYSUMMIT on Mar 10, 2015 6:28:38 GMT -6 It's not really "trailing" just yet, but it's taking its good old time moving east. Storms are moving NNE and almost going right over the same areas. You can get up to 1" per hour and a few lightning strikes are possible.
	Buying or Selling Real Estate?--->scottguidry.com United Real Estate Partners - New Orleans / North Shore Scott Guidry, Realtor, ABR, AHWD, AWREP, C2EX Click HERE To Download My FREE MLS Touch App! NWS COOP ID: 16-7425-08 CoCoRaHs ID: LA-TG-23

Daily General Weather Discussion Thread #14

Post by SKYSUMMIT on Mar 9, 2015 14:02:03 GMT -6

Post by SKYSUMMIT on Mar 9, 2015 14:45:20 GMT -6

Post by SKYSUMMIT on Mar 9, 2015 14:55:54 GMT -6

Post by thibodauxwx on Mar 9, 2015 15:14:42 GMT -6

Post by thibodauxwx on Mar 9, 2015 15:22:02 GMT -6

Post by teemickey on Mar 9, 2015 15:41:49 GMT -6

Post by ndg on Mar 9, 2015 15:58:21 GMT -6

Post by coreyl on Mar 9, 2015 17:33:09 GMT -6

Post by SKYSUMMIT on Mar 9, 2015 18:36:58 GMT -6

Post by SKYSUMMIT on Mar 9, 2015 18:51:56 GMT -6

Post by SKYSUMMIT on Mar 9, 2015 20:37:04 GMT -6

Post by SKYSUMMIT on Mar 9, 2015 21:02:25 GMT -6

Post by gulfbreeze on Mar 10, 2015 0:55:41 GMT -6

Post by SKYSUMMIT on Mar 10, 2015 5:52:04 GMT -6

Post by SKYSUMMIT on Mar 10, 2015 6:28:38 GMT -6

Shoutbox

Welcome All Members & Guests

Supporter Us & Donate for the 2024 Season

Hurricane Season 2024

Tropical Outlook

Regional Radars

Today's Convective Outlook

Today's Weather

Watches and Warnings