Daily General Weather Discussion Thread #14

SKYSUMMIT
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Daily General Weather Discussion Thread #14 Mar 10, 2015 6:51:37 GMT -6

Post by SKYSUMMIT on Mar 10, 2015 6:51:37 GMT -6

FLOOD ADVISORY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
750 AM CDT TUE MAR 10 2015

LAC001-023-039-053-055-097-113-101545-
/O.NEW.KLCH.FA.Y.0001.150310T1250Z-150310T1545Z/
/00000.N.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
ST. LANDRY LA-LAFAYETTE LA-EVANGELINE LA-ACADIA LA-JEFFERSON DAVIS
LA-VERMILION LA-CAMERON LA-
750 AM CDT TUE MAR 10 2015

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN LAKE CHARLES HAS ISSUED AN

* URBAN AND SMALL STREAM FLOOD ADVISORY FOR MINOR FLOODING OF POOR
DRAINAGE AREAS IN...
SOUTHEASTERN EVANGELINE PARISH IN CENTRAL LOUISIANA...
ST. LANDRY PARISH IN CENTRAL LOUISIANA...
THIS INCLUDES THE CITIES OF...PALMETTO...OPELOUSAS...LEONVILLE...
NORTHWESTERN LAFAYETTE PARISH IN SOUTH CENTRAL LOUISIANA...
ACADIA PARISH IN SOUTHWEST LOUISIANA...
THIS INCLUDES THE CITIES OF...RAYNE...MERMENTAU...IOTA...CROWLEY...
CHURCH POINT...
EASTERN CAMERON PARISH IN SOUTHWEST LOUISIANA...
THIS INCLUDES THE CITIES OF...ROCKEFELLER WILDLIFE RANGE...
ROCKEFELLER WILDLIFE REFUGE...KLONDIKE...GRAND CHENIER...
SOUTHEASTERN JEFFERSON DAVIS PARISH IN SOUTHWEST LOUISIANA...
THIS INCLUDES THE CITIES OF...LAKE ARTHUR...JENNINGS...
NORTHWESTERN VERMILION PARISH IN SOUTHWEST LOUISIANA...
THIS INCLUDES THE CITIES OF...KAPLAN...GUEYDAN...

* UNTIL 1045 AM CDT

* AT 741 AM CDT...A BAND OF MODERATE TO HEAVY RAIN IS MOVING
NORTHEAST ACROSS THE AREA AND ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE DEVELOPING AND MOVING ACROSS THE AREA
THIS MORNING. RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF ONE TO TWO INCHES HAVE FALLEN
ACROSS THE AREA OVERNIGHT AND AN ADDITIONAL ONE TO TWO INCHES IS
STILL POSSIBLE IN THE ADVISORY AREA.

FLOODING OF STREETS AND LOW LYING AREAS IS POSSIBLE IN LOCATIONS
FROM WASHINGTON TO CROWLEY TO LAKE ARTHUR. IN ADDITION...MINOR
FLOODING WILL BE POSSIBLE ALONG AREA RIVERS AND BAYOUS AS WATER
LEVELS RISE.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

MOST FLOOD DEATHS OCCUR IN AUTOMOBILES. NEVER DRIVE YOUR VEHICLE INTO
AREAS WHERE THE WATER COVERS THE ROADWAY. FLOOD WATERS ARE USUALLY
DEEPER THAN THEY APPEAR. JUST ONE FOOT OF FLOWING WATER IS POWERFUL
ENOUGH TO SWEEP VEHICLES OFF THE ROAD. WHEN ENCOUNTERING FLOODED
ROADS MAKE THE SMART CHOICE...TURN AROUND...DONT DROWN.

&&

Buying or Selling Real Estate?--->scottguidry.com
United Real Estate Partners - New Orleans / North Shore
Scott Guidry, Realtor, ABR, AHWD, AWREP, C2EX
Click HERE To Download My FREE MLS Touch App!
NWS COOP ID: 16-7425-08
CoCoRaHs ID: LA-TG-23

SKYSUMMIT
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Location: Ponchatoula, LA

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Daily General Weather Discussion Thread #14 Mar 10, 2015 7:52:01 GMT -6 DYLAN FEDERICO likes this

Post by SKYSUMMIT on Mar 10, 2015 7:52:01 GMT -6

These storms down in the gulf are outside of radar range right now, but look like they're moving toward the southeast LA coast. Also, the KLIX radar went out of service a little while ago. Hopefully it restores soon.

Buying or Selling Real Estate?--->scottguidry.com
United Real Estate Partners - New Orleans / North Shore
Scott Guidry, Realtor, ABR, AHWD, AWREP, C2EX
Click HERE To Download My FREE MLS Touch App!
NWS COOP ID: 16-7425-08
CoCoRaHs ID: LA-TG-23

DYLAN FEDERICO Meteorologist GCWX Supporter Posts: 17,515	Daily General Weather Discussion Thread #14 Mar 10, 2015 10:39:34 GMT -6 Select Post Deselect Post Link to Post Back to Top Post by DYLAN FEDERICO on Mar 10, 2015 10:39:34 GMT -6 Radar is really lighting up now! Areas all across SE LA should be concerned about training based on the orientation that these storms are moving.
	Twitter: @dylanfedericowx Facebook: Meteorologist Dylan Federico WINK Meteorologist

Bayou Medic Moderator Board Member Posts: 1,345 Staff Member	Daily General Weather Discussion Thread #14 Mar 10, 2015 10:59:13 GMT -6 via mobile Select Post Deselect Post Link to Post Back to Top Post by Bayou Medic on Mar 10, 2015 10:59:13 GMT -6 Thunder! I hear thunder. ..yay! Lol
	GCWX Board Member Spotter Network Trained Emergency Medical Technician 911 Emergency Operator

teemickey GCWX Supporter Posts: 160	Daily General Weather Discussion Thread #14 Mar 10, 2015 11:30:52 GMT -6 Select Post Deselect Post Link to Post Back to Top Post by teemickey on Mar 10, 2015 11:30:52 GMT -6 It's raining like cats and dogs in New Orleans East! It is really coming down HARD!!!
	I'm a wife, mom of 2 and Grammie of 6!

SKYSUMMIT
Administrator

President | Director of Operations

Posts: 67,639

Location: Ponchatoula, LA

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Daily General Weather Discussion Thread #14 Mar 10, 2015 12:11:58 GMT -6

Post by SKYSUMMIT on Mar 10, 2015 12:11:58 GMT -6

FLOOD ADVISORY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
ISSUED BY NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
1247 PM CDT TUE MAR 10 2015

LAC051-071-087-089-102045-
/O.NEW.KLIX.FA.Y.0006.150310T1747Z-150310T2045Z/
/00000.N.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
ST. CHARLES LA-ST. BERNARD LA-JEFFERSON LA-ORLEANS LA-
1247 PM CDT TUE MAR 10 2015

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN MOBILE HAS ISSUED A

* FLOOD ADVISORY FOR...
NORTHEASTERN ST. CHARLES PARISH IN SOUTHEASTERN LOUISIANA...
NORTHWESTERN ST. BERNARD PARISH IN SOUTHEASTERN LOUISIANA...
NORTHWESTERN JEFFERSON PARISH IN SOUTHEASTERN LOUISIANA...
ORLEANS PARISH IN SOUTHEASTERN LOUISIANA...

* UNTIL 345 PM CDT

* AT 1246 PM CDT...DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED HEAVY RAIN DUE TO
THUNDERSTORMS. THIS WILL CAUSE MINOR FLOODING IN THE ADVISORY AREA.

* SOME LOCATIONS THAT WILL EXPERIENCE FLOODING INCLUDE...
NEW ORLEANS...KENNER...CHALMETTE...MARRERO...AVONDALE...EAST NEW
ORLEANS...METAIRIE...HARVEY...JEFFERSON...GRETNA...HARAHAN...
WESTWEGO...ELMWOOD...RIVER RIDGE...WAGGAMAN...ARABI...BRIDGE
CITY...AMA...TERRYTOWN AND ST. ROSE.

Buying or Selling Real Estate?--->scottguidry.com
United Real Estate Partners - New Orleans / North Shore
Scott Guidry, Realtor, ABR, AHWD, AWREP, C2EX
Click HERE To Download My FREE MLS Touch App!
NWS COOP ID: 16-7425-08
CoCoRaHs ID: LA-TG-23

SKYSUMMIT
Administrator

President | Director of Operations

Posts: 67,639

Location: Ponchatoula, LA

Staff Member

Daily General Weather Discussion Thread #14 Mar 10, 2015 12:33:31 GMT -6

Post by SKYSUMMIT on Mar 10, 2015 12:33:31 GMT -6

WPC Met Watch

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion: #0012
(Issued at 225 PM EDT TUE MAR 10 2015 )

MPD Selection

Graphic for MPD #0012

MESOSCALE PRECIPITATION DISCUSSION 0012
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
225 PM EDT TUE MAR 10 2015

AREAS AFFECTED...ERN LOUISIANA INTO SRN MISSISSIPPI/ALABAMA

CONCERNING...HEAVY RAINFALL...FLASH FLOODING POSSIBLE

VALID 101822Z - 110015Z

SUMMARY...A FAVORABLE SETUP FOR TRAINING CONVECTION WITH HOURLY
RATES OF 1-2 IN/HR WILL INCREASE THE THREAT FOR FLASH FLOODING
FROM ERN LOUISIANA INTO SRN MISSISSIPPI AND SWRN ALABAMA THROUGH
00Z. RELATIVELY HIGH FLASH FLOOD GUIDANCE SHOULD LIMIT THE EXTENT
OF FLASH FLOODING BUT LOCALIZED TOTALS OF 4 TO 5 INCHES APPEAR
POSSIBLE.

DISCUSSION...SSWLY FLOW IN THE MID-LEVELS IS EVIDENT ON WATER
VAPOR IMAGERY WITH AN APPROACHING WEAK SHORTWAVE CURRENTLY
CROSSING SOUTH TEXAS. MOISTURE REMAINS ABOVE AVERAGE ACROSS THE
REGION WITH A RELATIVELY NARROW STRETCH OF PRECIPITABLE WATER
VALUES NEAR 1.5 INCHES STRETCHING AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT FROM THE
W-CNTRL GULF COAST TOWARD CNTRL TENNESSEE PER LATEST GPS DATA.
SSWLY FLOW AT 850 MB OF ROUGHLY 30-40 KTS IS IN PLACE VIA VAD WIND
PLOTS AT KLIX TO KDGX...PARALLEL TO THE MEAN STORM MOTIONS. BREAKS
IN CLOUD COVER OVER PARTS OF SRN MISSISSIPPI HAVE HELPED PUSH
SURFACE TEMPS INTO THE MID 70S WHICH IS AIDING IN INSTABILITY OF
NEARLY 500 J/KG. ELEMENTS OF TRAINING HAVE ALREADY BEEN OBSERVED
ON REGIONAL RADAR ACROSS THE THREAT REGION WITH INCREASING
COVERAGE OF CONVECTION JUST SOUTH OF THE LOUISIANA COAST ON IR
IMAGERY.

THE AFOREMENTIONED SHORTWAVE MOVING INTO THE WRN GULF OF MEXICO
SHOULD KEEP FLOW ALOFT NEARLY THE SAME WITH LITTLE ADVANCEMENT OF
THE COLD FRONT THROUGH 00Z NEAR THE GULF COAST. THIS WILL KEEP
UNIDIRECTIONAL SSWLY FLOW IN PLACE WITH PERHAPS A SLIGHT WEAKENING
IN THE 850 MB LAYER WIND SPEEDS PER RECENT RAP/GFS GUIDANCE.
NONETHELESS...A CONSENSUS OF 12Z HI-RES MODEL GUIDANCE SHOWS
SSW-NNE LINES OF HEAVY RAIN FROM NEAR LAKE PONTCHARTRAIN TO THE
CNTRL MS/AL BORDER...LED BY THE 12Z NMM/ARW AND RECENT RUNS OF THE
HRRR WHICH INDICATE 3 HRLY RATES EXCEEDING 3 INCHES THROUGH 00Z.
GIVEN THE MOISTURE AND AVAILABLE INSTABILITY ALREADY IN
PLACE...THESE AMOOUNTS APPEAR LIKELY ON A LOCALIZED BASIS WHICH
COULD CAUSE FLASH FLOODING.

OTTO

Last Edit: Mar 10, 2015 12:34:42 GMT -6 by SKYSUMMIT

Buying or Selling Real Estate?--->scottguidry.com
United Real Estate Partners - New Orleans / North Shore
Scott Guidry, Realtor, ABR, AHWD, AWREP, C2EX
Click HERE To Download My FREE MLS Touch App!
NWS COOP ID: 16-7425-08
CoCoRaHs ID: LA-TG-23

SKYSUMMIT
Administrator

President | Director of Operations

Posts: 67,639

Location: Ponchatoula, LA

Staff Member

Daily General Weather Discussion Thread #14 Mar 10, 2015 17:41:30 GMT -6

Post by SKYSUMMIT on Mar 10, 2015 17:41:30 GMT -6

The heaviest rains have still remained over the MS gulf coast today with 5 to 6 inches radar estimates between Gulfport and Biloxi. Kenner has gotten an estimated 2 to 3.5 inches, as well as just south of Baton Rouge...2 to 3.5 inches.

Buying or Selling Real Estate?--->scottguidry.com
United Real Estate Partners - New Orleans / North Shore
Scott Guidry, Realtor, ABR, AHWD, AWREP, C2EX
Click HERE To Download My FREE MLS Touch App!
NWS COOP ID: 16-7425-08
CoCoRaHs ID: LA-TG-23

SKYSUMMIT Administrator President \| Director of Operations Posts: 67,639 Location: Ponchatoula, LA Staff Member	Daily General Weather Discussion Thread #14 Mar 10, 2015 19:42:24 GMT -6 Select Post Deselect Post Link to Post Back to Top Post by SKYSUMMIT on Mar 10, 2015 19:42:24 GMT -6 This batch of rain is beginning to dwindle down for the gulf coast. All activity will continue to move northeast. There looks to be a lull before the next batch of rain moves in later tomorrow.
	Buying or Selling Real Estate?--->scottguidry.com United Real Estate Partners - New Orleans / North Shore Scott Guidry, Realtor, ABR, AHWD, AWREP, C2EX Click HERE To Download My FREE MLS Touch App! NWS COOP ID: 16-7425-08 CoCoRaHs ID: LA-TG-23

imjab GCWX Supporter Posts: 127	Daily General Weather Discussion Thread #14 Mar 10, 2015 20:19:18 GMT -6 via mobile Select Post Deselect Post Link to Post Back to Top Post by imjab on Mar 10, 2015 20:19:18 GMT -6 Good. About to start building the ark...

SKYSUMMIT Administrator President \| Director of Operations Posts: 67,639 Location: Ponchatoula, LA Staff Member	Daily General Weather Discussion Thread #14 Mar 10, 2015 20:45:17 GMT -6 Select Post Deselect Post Link to Post Back to Top Post by SKYSUMMIT on Mar 10, 2015 20:45:17 GMT -6 Here's where we stand so far. A few heavier swaths near Baton Rouge, Kenner and northern Plaquemines Parish, but by far, the Mississippi Gulf Coast has gotten drenched on so far.
	Buying or Selling Real Estate?--->scottguidry.com United Real Estate Partners - New Orleans / North Shore Scott Guidry, Realtor, ABR, AHWD, AWREP, C2EX Click HERE To Download My FREE MLS Touch App! NWS COOP ID: 16-7425-08 CoCoRaHs ID: LA-TG-23

SKYSUMMIT
Administrator

President | Director of Operations

Posts: 67,639

Location: Ponchatoula, LA

Staff Member

Daily General Weather Discussion Thread #14 Mar 10, 2015 21:53:33 GMT -6

Post by SKYSUMMIT on Mar 10, 2015 21:53:33 GMT -6

MOBILE/PENSACOLA AREAS:

URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
1052 PM CDT TUE MAR 10 2015

...DENSE FOG ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 10 AM CDT WEDNESDAY FOR EXTREME
SOUTHWEST ALABAMA AND THE NORTHWEST FLORIDA PANHANDLE...

.AREAS OF DENSE FOG WILL DEVELOP ACROSS EXTREME SOUTHWEST ALABAMA AND
THE NORTHWEST FLORIDA PANHANDLE OVERNIGHT...THEN DISSIPATE BY MID
MORNING ON WEDNESDAY.

ALZ061>064-FLZ001>006-111200-
/O.NEW.KMOB.FG.Y.0011.150311T0352Z-150311T1500Z/
UPPER MOBILE-UPPER BALDWIN-LOWER MOBILE-LOWER BALDWIN-
INLAND ESCAMBIA-COASTAL ESCAMBIA-INLAND SANTA ROSA-
COASTAL SANTA ROSA-INLAND OKALOOSA-COASTAL OKALOOSA-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...MOBILE...PRICHARD...SARALAND...
BAY MINETTE...TILLMANS CORNER...THEODORE...DAPHNE...FAIRHOPE...
FOLEY...SPANISH FORT...CENTURY...FLOMATON...MOLINO...FERRY PASS...
BRENT...WEST PENSACOLA...BELLVIEW...ENSLEY...MYRTLE GROVE...JAY...
PACE...MILTON...CRESTVIEW...WRIGHT...NICEVILLE...SEMINOLE...
EGLIN AFB
1052 PM CDT TUE MAR 10 2015

...DENSE FOG ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 10 AM CDT WEDNESDAY...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN MOBILE HAS ISSUED A DENSE FOG
ADVISORY...WHICH IS IN EFFECT UNTIL 10 AM CDT WEDNESDAY.

* VISIBILITY...DROPPING TO AROUND A QUARTER MILE OR LESS.

* IMPACTS...REDUCED VISIBILITY WILL RESULT IN HAZARDOUS TRAVEL
CONDITIONS.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A DENSE FOG ADVISORY MEANS VISIBILITIES WILL FREQUENTLY BE REDUCED
TO LESS THAN ONE QUARTER MILE. IF DRIVING...SLOW DOWN...USE YOUR
HEADLIGHTS...AND LEAVE PLENTY OF DISTANCE AHEAD OF YOU.

Buying or Selling Real Estate?--->scottguidry.com
United Real Estate Partners - New Orleans / North Shore
Scott Guidry, Realtor, ABR, AHWD, AWREP, C2EX
Click HERE To Download My FREE MLS Touch App!
NWS COOP ID: 16-7425-08
CoCoRaHs ID: LA-TG-23

SKYSUMMIT Administrator President \| Director of Operations Posts: 67,639 Location: Ponchatoula, LA Staff Member	Daily General Weather Discussion Thread #14 Mar 10, 2015 23:14:36 GMT -6 Select Post Deselect Post Link to Post Back to Top Post by SKYSUMMIT on Mar 10, 2015 23:14:36 GMT -6 Updated QPF for Thursday:
	Buying or Selling Real Estate?--->scottguidry.com United Real Estate Partners - New Orleans / North Shore Scott Guidry, Realtor, ABR, AHWD, AWREP, C2EX Click HERE To Download My FREE MLS Touch App! NWS COOP ID: 16-7425-08 CoCoRaHs ID: LA-TG-23

SKYSUMMIT Administrator President \| Director of Operations Posts: 67,639 Location: Ponchatoula, LA Staff Member	Daily General Weather Discussion Thread #14 Mar 11, 2015 6:32:33 GMT -6 Select Post Deselect Post Link to Post Back to Top Post by SKYSUMMIT on Mar 11, 2015 6:32:33 GMT -6 Heavy rain at the toll plaza this morning causing some traffic delays.
	Buying or Selling Real Estate?--->scottguidry.com United Real Estate Partners - New Orleans / North Shore Scott Guidry, Realtor, ABR, AHWD, AWREP, C2EX Click HERE To Download My FREE MLS Touch App! NWS COOP ID: 16-7425-08 CoCoRaHs ID: LA-TG-23

SKYSUMMIT Administrator President \| Director of Operations Posts: 67,639 Location: Ponchatoula, LA Staff Member	Daily General Weather Discussion Thread #14 Mar 11, 2015 6:53:17 GMT -6 Select Post Deselect Post Link to Post Back to Top Post by SKYSUMMIT on Mar 11, 2015 6:53:17 GMT -6 The next batch getting stirred up down in the Gulf...
	Buying or Selling Real Estate?--->scottguidry.com United Real Estate Partners - New Orleans / North Shore Scott Guidry, Realtor, ABR, AHWD, AWREP, C2EX Click HERE To Download My FREE MLS Touch App! NWS COOP ID: 16-7425-08 CoCoRaHs ID: LA-TG-23

Daily General Weather Discussion Thread #14

Post by SKYSUMMIT on Mar 10, 2015 6:51:37 GMT -6

Post by SKYSUMMIT on Mar 10, 2015 7:52:01 GMT -6

Post by DYLAN FEDERICO on Mar 10, 2015 10:39:34 GMT -6

Post by Bayou Medic on Mar 10, 2015 10:59:13 GMT -6

Post by teemickey on Mar 10, 2015 11:30:52 GMT -6

Post by SKYSUMMIT on Mar 10, 2015 12:11:58 GMT -6

Post by SKYSUMMIT on Mar 10, 2015 12:33:31 GMT -6

Post by SKYSUMMIT on Mar 10, 2015 17:41:30 GMT -6

Post by SKYSUMMIT on Mar 10, 2015 19:42:24 GMT -6

Post by imjab on Mar 10, 2015 20:19:18 GMT -6

Post by SKYSUMMIT on Mar 10, 2015 20:45:17 GMT -6

Post by SKYSUMMIT on Mar 10, 2015 21:53:33 GMT -6

Post by SKYSUMMIT on Mar 10, 2015 23:14:36 GMT -6

Post by SKYSUMMIT on Mar 11, 2015 6:32:33 GMT -6

Post by SKYSUMMIT on Mar 11, 2015 6:53:17 GMT -6

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