Post by SKYSUMMIT on Apr 17, 2015 12:45:02 GMT -6
SATURDAY:
...SRN AND ERN TX EWD ACROSS THE GULF COASTAL STATES...
SHOWERS AND STORMS ARE PROGGED TO BE ONGOING ACROSS THE SABINE/LOWER
MS VALLEY VICINITY AT THE START OF THE PERISUNDAYOD...AS ASCENT ASSOCIATED
WITH A SRN-STREAM SPEED MAX CROSSING NRN MEXICO TRAVERSES THE
REGION. WITH TIME...AS THE SPEED MAX SHIFTS INTO/ACROSS THE WRN
GULF AND AN ASSOCIATED VORT MAX CROSSES E TX AND EVENTUALLY LOWER MS
VALLEY REGION...A DIURNAL INCREASE IN CONVECTION CAN BE EXPECTED.
WHILE CAPE DEVELOPMENT SHOULD REMAIN LIMITED DUE TO EXTENSIVE
PRECIPITATION/CLOUD COVER...SHEAR SUPPORTIVE OF ORGANIZED STORMS
SUGGESTS THAT LOCALLY DAMAGING WINDS AND POSSIBLY ISOLATED/MARGINAL
HAIL WILL BE POSSIBLE AS STORMS SPREAD EWD/NEWD ACROSS THE GULF
COASTAL STATES THROUGH THE DAY AND INTO THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD.
AFTERNOON CONVECTIVE REDEVELOPMENT IS ALSO POSSIBLE FARTHER W INTO
CENTRAL/S TX AND THE ADJACENT HIGHER TERRAIN OF NERN MEXICO...AS
DESTABILIZATION OCCURS IN THE WAKE OF EARLIER STORMS AND MID-LEVEL
HEIGHT FALLS INCREASE AHEAD OF THE MAIN/EVOLVING UPPER TROUGH.
PRESUMING SUFFICIENT CAPE DEVELOPMENT...AMPLE SHEAR FORECAST TO
EXIST WOULD SUPPORT UPDRAFT ORGANIZATION AND ASSOCIATED RISK FOR
HAIL AND LOCALLY DAMAGING WIND GUSTS INTO THE EVENING HOURS.
SUNDAY:
FURTHER SOUTH ACROSS THE CNTRL GULF COAST AND LOWER MS
VALLEY...THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE SUNDAY
AFTERNOON. HOWEVER...LARGE-SCALE ASCENT SHOULD BE LIMITED KEEPING
ANY CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT ISOLATED IN NATURE AND CONCENTRATED ALONG
OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES OR ZONES OF LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE.
STILL...DEEP-LAYER SHEAR MAY BE STRONG ENOUGH WHICH COMBINED WITH
MODERATE INSTABILITY COULD SUPPORT MARGINALLY SEVERE WIND GUSTS
ACROSS THE REGION.
...SRN AND ERN TX EWD ACROSS THE GULF COASTAL STATES...
SHOWERS AND STORMS ARE PROGGED TO BE ONGOING ACROSS THE SABINE/LOWER
MS VALLEY VICINITY AT THE START OF THE PERISUNDAYOD...AS ASCENT ASSOCIATED
WITH A SRN-STREAM SPEED MAX CROSSING NRN MEXICO TRAVERSES THE
REGION. WITH TIME...AS THE SPEED MAX SHIFTS INTO/ACROSS THE WRN
GULF AND AN ASSOCIATED VORT MAX CROSSES E TX AND EVENTUALLY LOWER MS
VALLEY REGION...A DIURNAL INCREASE IN CONVECTION CAN BE EXPECTED.
WHILE CAPE DEVELOPMENT SHOULD REMAIN LIMITED DUE TO EXTENSIVE
PRECIPITATION/CLOUD COVER...SHEAR SUPPORTIVE OF ORGANIZED STORMS
SUGGESTS THAT LOCALLY DAMAGING WINDS AND POSSIBLY ISOLATED/MARGINAL
HAIL WILL BE POSSIBLE AS STORMS SPREAD EWD/NEWD ACROSS THE GULF
COASTAL STATES THROUGH THE DAY AND INTO THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD.
AFTERNOON CONVECTIVE REDEVELOPMENT IS ALSO POSSIBLE FARTHER W INTO
CENTRAL/S TX AND THE ADJACENT HIGHER TERRAIN OF NERN MEXICO...AS
DESTABILIZATION OCCURS IN THE WAKE OF EARLIER STORMS AND MID-LEVEL
HEIGHT FALLS INCREASE AHEAD OF THE MAIN/EVOLVING UPPER TROUGH.
PRESUMING SUFFICIENT CAPE DEVELOPMENT...AMPLE SHEAR FORECAST TO
EXIST WOULD SUPPORT UPDRAFT ORGANIZATION AND ASSOCIATED RISK FOR
HAIL AND LOCALLY DAMAGING WIND GUSTS INTO THE EVENING HOURS.
SUNDAY:
FURTHER SOUTH ACROSS THE CNTRL GULF COAST AND LOWER MS
VALLEY...THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE SUNDAY
AFTERNOON. HOWEVER...LARGE-SCALE ASCENT SHOULD BE LIMITED KEEPING
ANY CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT ISOLATED IN NATURE AND CONCENTRATED ALONG
OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES OR ZONES OF LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE.
STILL...DEEP-LAYER SHEAR MAY BE STRONG ENOUGH WHICH COMBINED WITH
MODERATE INSTABILITY COULD SUPPORT MARGINALLY SEVERE WIND GUSTS
ACROSS THE REGION.
