000 NOUS42 KNHC 131615 REPRPD WEATHER RECONNAISSANCE FLIGHTS CARCAH, NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER, MIAMI, FL. 1215 PM EDT SUN 13 SEPTEMBER 2015 SUBJECT: TROPICAL CYCLONE PLAN OF THE DAY (TCPOD) VALID 14/1100Z TO 15/1100Z SEPTEMBER 2015 TCPOD NUMBER.....15-110
I. ATLANTIC REQUIREMENTS 1. SUSPECT AREA (WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO) FLIGHT ONE -- TEAL 71 FLIGHT TWO -- TEAL 72 A. 14/1800Z A. 15/1130Z B. AFXXX 01EEA INVEST B. AFXXX 02EEA CYCLONE C. 14/1500Z C. 15/0845Z D. 22.0N 96.5W D. 22.5N 97.0W E. 14/1730Z TO 14/2130Z E. 15/1115Z TO 15/1430Z F. SFC TO 15,000FT F. SFC TO 15,000FT
2. OUTLOOK FOR SUCCEEDING DAY: CONTINUE 12-HRLY FIXES IF SYSTEM DEVELOPS.
Last Edit: Sept 13, 2015 10:51:51 GMT -6 by trethe
I don't think it was ever a question that a disturbance could form on the tail end of the frontal boundary, the question towards the Euro was that it was developing the system into a Cat 3 hurricane in its long range forecast which little by little started dropping. The GFS at times did developed a weak area of low pressure instead of the Euro's crazy solution.
SHIPS analyzed shear to be at 31 knots over 94L at 18z, and it forecasts shear not to drop below 20 knots over the next 72 hrs. If it can stay offshore over the next 24-72 hrs it may become a TD or maybe even a weak TS but with ridging building over TX the next few days I would expect it to move inland into MX and even if it stays offshore northerly shear is forecasted to move over the western GOM.