Tuesday, 2/23/16 - Severe Weather Possible (School Closures)

Cajun,
Could you or Scott please post a link to a layman's guide to interpreting soundings? Looking at the graphs that are posted on this site, as well as others, it looks logarithmic to me. I know there are sites that get really in depth, but I don't have the time to get into a lot of study. I just want to find "The Idiot's Guide To Soundings" TIA

Watching the news here in Mobile Sunday night, I saw two weather reports. Matt Barrentine of WALA went into a bit more detail, mentioning isolated tornadoes and the risk, but didn't really hype it. Melissa Constanzer of WKRG mentioned concern for Tuesday and Tuesday night, but didn't go into as much detail and hype either. The ones really hyping this up are the message board community. One I only read had one talking about how this may be an outbreak for the Gulf Coast and Carolinas that will be remembered for a long time. One talked about recorded EF4/5 tornadoes recorded in the New Orleans/Baton Rouge forecast area. I admit, seeing that has nerves a bit rattled. Hopefully this doesn't live up to their hype.

DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0106 AM CST MON FEB 22 2016

VALID 231200Z - 241200Z

...THERE IS AN ENH RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN
LA/MS/AL AND THE WESTERN FL PANHANDLE...

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS THE UPPER TX COAST TO
WESTERN GA AND THE CENTRAL FL PANHANDLE...

...THERE IS A MRGL RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM EASTERN TX TO PARTS OF
EASTERN GA AND NORTHERN FL...

...SUMMARY...
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH ALL HAZARDS WILL BE POSSIBLE BEGINNING
EARLY TUESDAY IN SOUTHEAST TEXAS AND THEN SPREADING EASTWARD ACROSS
LOUISIANA...MISSISSIPPI...ALABAMA AND THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE THROUGH
EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING.

...GULF COAST STATES...

AN INTENSE MIDLEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL TRACK EASTWARD FROM TX
ACROSS THE GULF COAST REGION ON TUESDAY. A 100+ KT MIDLEVEL JET
STREAK WILL OVERSPREAD THE NORTHERN GULF COAST AND PIVOT NORTHEAST
INTO CENTRAL AL/WESTERN GA BY WEDNESDAY MORNING. AT THE
SURFACE...LOW PRESSURE OVER EAST TX/WESTERN LA WILL LIFT NORTHEAST
ACROSS THE LOWER MS VALLEY WHILE RAPIDLY INTENSIFYING. A TRAILING
COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS EAST TX INTO WESTERN LA BY LATE
AFTERNOON AND ACROSS MS/AL OVERNIGHT. LOW TO MID 60S DEWPOINTS ARE
ALREADY IN PLACE ALONG THE UPPER TX AND NORTHERN GULF COASTS. THIS
MOISTURE WILL CREEP NORTHWARD INTO CENTRAL MS/AL/GA BY TUESDAY
AFTERNOON...WITH DEWPOINTS FURTHER NORTH ACROSS NORTHERN MS/AL/GA
FROM THE MID TO UPPER 50S. SOME DAYTIME CLOUDINESS AND SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE WARM SECTOR IN MS/AL/GA WILL LIMIT
DESTABILIZATION...BUT STEEPENING MIDLEVEL LAPSE RATES SHOULD ALLOW
FOR MUCAPE VALUES APPROACHING 500-1000 J/KG.

IMPRESSIVE VERTICALLY VEERING DEEP LAYER WIND PROFILES AND A STRONG
SOUTHWESTERLY LOW LEVEL JET OF 60+ KT WILL FAVOR SUPERCELLS WITH
SOME BOWING LINE SEGMENTS. DAMAGING WINDS AND TORNADOES...PERHAPS
ONE OR TWO STRONG TORNADOES...WILL BE POSSIBLE. EXPECT THE GREATEST
THREAT FROM PARTS OF SOUTHERN LA INTO SOUTHERN MS DURING THE
AFTERNOON AND CONTINUING ACROSS SOUTHERN AL AND THE WESTERN FL
PANHANDLE THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. ADDITIONALLY...SEVERE HAIL
APPEARS POSSIBLE WITH COOLING MIDLEVEL TEMPERATURES RESULTING IN
700-500 MB LAPSE RATES NEAR 7 DEG C/KM. SOME UNCERTAINTY WITH
REGARDS TO THE EASTERN EXTENT OF THE SLIGHT AND ENHANCED RISK AREAS
CONTINUES...AND THESE AREAS MAY NEED TO BE RE-EVALUATED IN COMING
OUTLOOKS.

06z NAM:

NOLA:



HOUMA:



BR:

It has been quite a while since an enhanced outlook has shown up

I wanted to note that I was the one that posted the tornado history because someone brought it up AND weather history for our area is somewhat of a passion of mine. I want you to take two things from the post. 1) Knowing your area's local weather history is important 2) Violent tornadoes in south Louisiana are VERY rare. That does not correlate to this event necessarily. Just an observation. Here is the quote