Post by PinkFreud - Nola FQ on Feb 22, 2016 0:00:50 GMT -6
Cajun, Could you or Scott please post a link to a layman's guide to interpreting soundings? Looking at the graphs that are posted on this site, as well as others, it looks logarithmic to me. I know there are sites that get really in depth, but I don't have the time to get into a lot of study. I just want to find "The Idiot's Guide To Soundings" TIA
Cajun, Could you or Scott please post a link to a layman's guide to interpreting soundings? Looking at the graphs that are posted on this site, as well as others, it looks logarithmic to me. I know there are sites that get really in depth, but I don't have the time to get into a lot of study. I just want to find "The Idiot's Guide To Soundings" TIA
Post by mobileweatherwatcher on Feb 22, 2016 0:56:25 GMT -6
Watching the news here in Mobile Sunday night, I saw two weather reports. Matt Barrentine of WALA went into a bit more detail, mentioning isolated tornadoes and the risk, but didn't really hype it. Melissa Constanzer of WKRG mentioned concern for Tuesday and Tuesday night, but didn't go into as much detail and hype either. The ones really hyping this up are the message board community. One I only read had one talking about how this may be an outbreak for the Gulf Coast and Carolinas that will be remembered for a long time. One talked about recorded EF4/5 tornadoes recorded in the New Orleans/Baton Rouge forecast area. I admit, seeing that has nerves a bit rattled. Hopefully this doesn't live up to their hype.
Local tv mets usually don't hype storms so early, unless there's a near certainty it'll happen. They have to watch out cause the public will burn them if they are wrong. This is a good thing though. We can talk about the possibilities freely here, cause that's what we do, we talk about the possibilities. You will have under-hyping in TV and over hyping on the Internet. The truth is somewhere in between.
DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0106 AM CST MON FEB 22 2016
VALID 231200Z - 241200Z
...THERE IS AN ENH RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN LA/MS/AL AND THE WESTERN FL PANHANDLE...
...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS THE UPPER TX COAST TO WESTERN GA AND THE CENTRAL FL PANHANDLE...
...THERE IS A MRGL RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM EASTERN TX TO PARTS OF EASTERN GA AND NORTHERN FL...
...SUMMARY... SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH ALL HAZARDS WILL BE POSSIBLE BEGINNING EARLY TUESDAY IN SOUTHEAST TEXAS AND THEN SPREADING EASTWARD ACROSS LOUISIANA...MISSISSIPPI...ALABAMA AND THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE THROUGH EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING.
...GULF COAST STATES...
AN INTENSE MIDLEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL TRACK EASTWARD FROM TX ACROSS THE GULF COAST REGION ON TUESDAY. A 100+ KT MIDLEVEL JET STREAK WILL OVERSPREAD THE NORTHERN GULF COAST AND PIVOT NORTHEAST INTO CENTRAL AL/WESTERN GA BY WEDNESDAY MORNING. AT THE SURFACE...LOW PRESSURE OVER EAST TX/WESTERN LA WILL LIFT NORTHEAST ACROSS THE LOWER MS VALLEY WHILE RAPIDLY INTENSIFYING. A TRAILING COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS EAST TX INTO WESTERN LA BY LATE AFTERNOON AND ACROSS MS/AL OVERNIGHT. LOW TO MID 60S DEWPOINTS ARE ALREADY IN PLACE ALONG THE UPPER TX AND NORTHERN GULF COASTS. THIS MOISTURE WILL CREEP NORTHWARD INTO CENTRAL MS/AL/GA BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON...WITH DEWPOINTS FURTHER NORTH ACROSS NORTHERN MS/AL/GA FROM THE MID TO UPPER 50S. SOME DAYTIME CLOUDINESS AND SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE WARM SECTOR IN MS/AL/GA WILL LIMIT DESTABILIZATION...BUT STEEPENING MIDLEVEL LAPSE RATES SHOULD ALLOW FOR MUCAPE VALUES APPROACHING 500-1000 J/KG. IMPRESSIVE VERTICALLY VEERING DEEP LAYER WIND PROFILES AND A STRONG SOUTHWESTERLY LOW LEVEL JET OF 60+ KT WILL FAVOR SUPERCELLS WITH SOME BOWING LINE SEGMENTS. DAMAGING WINDS AND TORNADOES...PERHAPS ONE OR TWO STRONG TORNADOES...WILL BE POSSIBLE. EXPECT THE GREATEST THREAT FROM PARTS OF SOUTHERN LA INTO SOUTHERN MS DURING THE AFTERNOON AND CONTINUING ACROSS SOUTHERN AL AND THE WESTERN FL PANHANDLE THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. ADDITIONALLY...SEVERE HAIL APPEARS POSSIBLE WITH COOLING MIDLEVEL TEMPERATURES RESULTING IN 700-500 MB LAPSE RATES NEAR 7 DEG C/KM. SOME UNCERTAINTY WITH REGARDS TO THE EASTERN EXTENT OF THE SLIGHT AND ENHANCED RISK AREAS CONTINUES...AND THESE AREAS MAY NEED TO BE RE-EVALUATED IN COMING OUTLOOKS.
DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0106 AM CST MON FEB 22 2016
VALID 231200Z - 241200Z
...THERE IS AN ENH RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN LA/MS/AL AND THE WESTERN FL PANHANDLE...
...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS THE UPPER TX COAST TO WESTERN GA AND THE CENTRAL FL PANHANDLE...
...THERE IS A MRGL RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM EASTERN TX TO PARTS OF EASTERN GA AND NORTHERN FL...
...SUMMARY... SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH ALL HAZARDS WILL BE POSSIBLE BEGINNING EARLY TUESDAY IN SOUTHEAST TEXAS AND THEN SPREADING EASTWARD ACROSS LOUISIANA...MISSISSIPPI...ALABAMA AND THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE THROUGH EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING.
...GULF COAST STATES...
AN INTENSE MIDLEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL TRACK EASTWARD FROM TX ACROSS THE GULF COAST REGION ON TUESDAY. A 100+ KT MIDLEVEL JET STREAK WILL OVERSPREAD THE NORTHERN GULF COAST AND PIVOT NORTHEAST INTO CENTRAL AL/WESTERN GA BY WEDNESDAY MORNING. AT THE SURFACE...LOW PRESSURE OVER EAST TX/WESTERN LA WILL LIFT NORTHEAST ACROSS THE LOWER MS VALLEY WHILE RAPIDLY INTENSIFYING. A TRAILING COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS EAST TX INTO WESTERN LA BY LATE AFTERNOON AND ACROSS MS/AL OVERNIGHT. LOW TO MID 60S DEWPOINTS ARE ALREADY IN PLACE ALONG THE UPPER TX AND NORTHERN GULF COASTS. THIS MOISTURE WILL CREEP NORTHWARD INTO CENTRAL MS/AL/GA BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON...WITH DEWPOINTS FURTHER NORTH ACROSS NORTHERN MS/AL/GA FROM THE MID TO UPPER 50S. SOME DAYTIME CLOUDINESS AND SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE WARM SECTOR IN MS/AL/GA WILL LIMIT DESTABILIZATION...BUT STEEPENING MIDLEVEL LAPSE RATES SHOULD ALLOW FOR MUCAPE VALUES APPROACHING 500-1000 J/KG. IMPRESSIVE VERTICALLY VEERING DEEP LAYER WIND PROFILES AND A STRONG SOUTHWESTERLY LOW LEVEL JET OF 60+ KT WILL FAVOR SUPERCELLS WITH SOME BOWING LINE SEGMENTS. DAMAGING WINDS AND TORNADOES...PERHAPS ONE OR TWO STRONG TORNADOES...WILL BE POSSIBLE. EXPECT THE GREATEST THREAT FROM PARTS OF SOUTHERN LA INTO SOUTHERN MS DURING THE AFTERNOON AND CONTINUING ACROSS SOUTHERN AL AND THE WESTERN FL PANHANDLE THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. ADDITIONALLY...SEVERE HAIL APPEARS POSSIBLE WITH COOLING MIDLEVEL TEMPERATURES RESULTING IN 700-500 MB LAPSE RATES NEAR 7 DEG C/KM. SOME UNCERTAINTY WITH REGARDS TO THE EASTERN EXTENT OF THE SLIGHT AND ENHANCED RISK AREAS CONTINUES...AND THESE AREAS MAY NEED TO BE RE-EVALUATED IN COMING OUTLOOKS.
It has been quite a while since an enhanced outlook has shown up
All of my post, unless stated otherwise are opinionated and are in no way an official forecast.
I wanted to note that I was the one that posted the tornado history because someone brought it up AND weather history for our area is somewhat of a passion of mine. I want you to take two things from the post. 1) Knowing your area's local weather history is important 2) Violent tornadoes in south Louisiana are VERY rare. That does not correlate to this event necessarily. Just an observation. Here is the quote
As a note about South Louisiana from the LIX writeup on the violent LaPlace LA tornado ...
The violent tornado touched down at 1:05 AM CST on Dec 6, 1983 ... Violent tornadoes are rare in the central Gulf Coast region. Since 1950, only three violent tornadoes, (F4/F5) have been recorded in the Parish/County Warning Area served by New Orleans-Baton Rouge Weather Forecast Office. Besides the LaPlace tornado, the other F4 tornadoes that have documented in the area since 1950 were : Oct 3, 1964 – A violent tornado associated with Hurricane Hilda struck Larose, Lafourche Parish, killing 22 people and injuring 354 people. Jan 10, 1975 814AM - a violent tornado moved across portions of Amite and Pike Counties in southwest MS . 9 people were killed, and 210 injured.
If you count the Amite-Purvis tornado in 1908, that makes 4.
Post by supernovasky on Feb 22, 2016 8:14:01 GMT -6
Question. I've see. Forecasts in the path be supposedly suggestive of tornados in the Baton Rouge vicinity but they never materialize. What does it look like this time around and what makes this event so different?
Also we have a lot of rain coming today. Will cloud cover limit potential in Baton Rouge?
TIA
