Looks like Baton Rouge didn't get the moderate designation. I thought a lot of energy would be focused here.
I'm thinking the moderate risk is just to the east because that'll give storms a little time to mature. Louisiana will have tons of energy to work with. Gonna have to see what happens with the next update. Regardless, tomorrow's severe threat is looking real.
Also, Baton Rouge is in the hatched area for significant severe.
SKYSUMMIT President | Director of OperationsAdministratorOnline
Not too good at reading the charts and soundings....What's the timing looking like for the severe weather to pass? I have morning carpool, and have to be out tomorrow morning more than usual. What can we expect for morning commute?
SKYSUMMIT President | Director of OperationsAdministratorOnline
Not too good at reading the charts and soundings....What's the timing looking like for the severe weather to pass? I have morning carpool, and have to be out tomorrow morning more than usual. What can we expect for morning commute?
The morning should not be bad. Storms may begin firing as early as 10am however, with the main threat being between 1pm and sunset over LA and MS, and then into the night for AL and FL.
Post by Zack Fradella on Feb 22, 2016 13:04:38 GMT -6
I think the SPC has the right location for the greatest risk area and the best chances of seeing that intense severe weather.
It doesn't matter what the setup is over the Gulf Coast, the close proximity to the cool Gulf water always keeps things in check. That doesn't mean we won't see severe weather from I-10 southward, it just means you can't get carried away with the wording. Discrete cells are what usually generates the worst severe weather and you struggle to get those to develop right at the coastline.
This is why usually coastal LA/South Shore becomes a breeding ground for those tornadic storms once they get north of I-12.
Post by supernovasky on Feb 22, 2016 13:22:41 GMT -6
It frustrates me because Baton Rouge always seems JUST too south. Like, 10-15 miles north of us always gets the tornado warnings and severe storms but not us.
SKYSUMMIT President | Director of OperationsAdministratorOnline
THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTH CENTRAL ALABAMA...SOUTHWEST ALABAMA...NORTHWEST FLORIDA AND SOUTHEAST MISSISSIPPI.
.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT
THERE IS A HIGH RISK OF RIP CURRENTS ON AREA BEACHES TODAY AND TONIGHT.
.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY
SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE REGION TUESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING. TORNADOES...SOME POTENTIALLY STRONG AND LONG TRACKED...ARE THE MAIN THREAT. HOWEVER...DAMAGING WIND GUSTS OF 60 TO 80 MPH AND HAIL UP TO GOLFBALL SIZE ARE ALSO SIGNIFICANT THREATS.
TIMING WISE...THE WINDOW OF SEVERE WEATHER WILL ROUGHLY BE BETWEEN 2PM TO 9PM WEST OF I-65...FIRST STARTING IN SOUTHEAST MISSISSIPPI MID TO LATE AFTERNOON AND SPREADING CLOSER TO THE I-65 CORRIDOR BY EARLY EVENING. FOR AREAS EAST OF I-65 IN SOUTH CENTRAL ALABAMA AND THE NORTHWEST FLORIDA PANHANDLE...8PM TO 4AM WILL BE THE MAIN TIME FOR THE SEVERE THREAT.
KEEP IN MIND THAT THE GREATEST SEVERE POTENTIAL WILL OCCUR DURING THE NIGHTTIME HOURS. THIS COMBINED WITH THE FACT STORMS WILL BE MOVING VERY RAPIDLY TO THE NORTHEAST WILL CREATE A DANGEROUS SITUATION. ENSURE YOU HAVE MULTIPLE WAYS TO RECEIVE WARNINGS AND DO NOT HESITATE TO TAKE ACTION IF A WARNING IS ISSUED FOR YOUR AREA.
A HIGH SURF ADVISORY MAY BE REQUIRED TOMORROW AFTERNOON EAST OF PERDIDO PASS THROUGH MIDDAY WEDNESDAY FOR BREAKER HEIGHTS ALONG AREA BEACHES IN THE 5 TO 8 FEET RANGE. THERE IS ALSO A HIGH RISK FOR RIP CURRENTS ALONG AREA BEACHES.
.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... ACTIVATION OF SKYWARN SEVERE STORM SPOTTER NETWORKS WILL LIKELY BE NECESSARY TUESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING.
Well we really don't get much severe weather here in Thibodaux either. Everything always ends up to our north or east. But trust me you don't really want a tornado. About the scariest I had in recent times was this past April when the skies looked like the middle of the night. And it was only 9 a.m. My baby was only 8 months old and was scared to death. I grabbed him as fast as I could and ran into the hallway til the worse was over. A tornado did hit my cousin's neighborhood only 5 min north of me. And to think I had plans to go grocery shop that morning with my baby. I would of likely been on the road at that time and who knows what would of happened? Glad I changed my plans.
Post by mobileweatherwatcher on Feb 22, 2016 13:53:28 GMT -6
Got a chance to get a real good look at the SPC outlook. Taking it literally, I'm just a tad bit south of the moderate risk (just southwest of Mobile city limits). Obviously, close enough to it that I'll be watching things.
I heard talk of some area schools possibly having an early dismissal so everyone keep that in mind tomorrow in case they decide to do so.
From Wunderground:
Starting Monday night, the chance for severe storms will increase in the South, mainly in central and south Texas with large hail being the primary concern. A powerful low pressure system will bring a potential outbreak of severe storms and tornadoes to the South for the start of this week. The same area of low pressure will deliver a swath of snow and strong winds to the Midwest and Great Lakes.
A more widespread and significant bout of severe storms will spread through the Gulf Coast states Tuesday and Tuesday night, from southeast Texas into parts of Louisiana, Mississippi, Alabama and the western Florida panhandle. Tornadoes, damaging wind gusts and large hail are all possible threats from those storms.]/quote]
THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST LOUISIANA...SOUTH MISSISSIPPI AND THE ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS.
.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT
AREAS OF LIGHT TO MODERATE FOG POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT.
.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY
A VERY POTENT SYSTEM WILL PUSH THROUGH THE REGION LATE TUESDAY. THE ENTIRE REGION IS WITHIN AN ENHANCED AREA FOR SEVERE STORMS. THERE IS A MODERATE OR SLIGHTLY HIGHER RISK FOR SEVERE WEATHER EAST OF INTERSTATE 55 AND NORTH OF INTERSTATE 12. THE INGREDIENTS WILL BE IN PLACE FOR ALL MODES OF SEVERE WEATHER INCLUDING TORNADOES AND A FEW MAYBE BE STRONG. DAMAGING WIND GUSTS OF UP TO 80 MPH ARE POSSIBLE AS WELL. THE MAIN TIMING FOR SEVERE STORMS APPEARS TO BE DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS.
A WIND ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT FOR THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA FROM MID MORNING TUESDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY AND GALE WARNING PRODUCTS HAVE BEEN ISSUED FOR THE TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT PERIODS. PLEASE SEE THOSE PRODUCTS FOR MORE INFORMATION.
.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT IN SUPPORT OF SEVERE WEATHER OPERATIONS.
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL 446 PM CST MON FEB 22 2016
...A SIGNIFICANT THREAT OF SEVERE STORMS IS FORECAST OVER THE LOCAL AREA TUESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING...
...POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR STRONG AND LONG TRACK TORNADOES TUESDAY AFTERNOON INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING...
.NEAR TERM /NOW THROUGH TUESDAY/...A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY EXTENDING FROM SOUTHERN MISSISSIPPI UP TO THE NORTHEAST ACROSS CENTRAL ALABAMA THIS EVENING WILL REMAIN NEARLY STATIONARY OR LIFT NORTH ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT. AN AREA OF RAIN WITH A FEW THUNDERSTORMS CURRENTLY ORIENTED ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE FRONT WILL MOVE SLOWLY EAST ACROSS WESTERN HALF OF OUR FCST AREA THIS EVENING AND INTO THE EARLY PREDAWN MORNING HOURS TUESDAY. WE ARE EXPECTING COVERAGE TO DECREASE AFTER MIDNIGHT AS WEAK SUPPORTING UPPER DYNAMICS WEAKEN OVER THE AREA...BUT THERE WILL BE A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE NIGHT. LIGHT SOUTHERLY FLOW CONTINUES TONIGHT...BRINGING EVER INCREASING MOISTURE INTO THE REGION. OBSERVED SFC DEWPOINTS HAVE ALREADY BEEN RUNNING UP TO AROUND 5 DEGREES ABOVE GUIDANCE...AND WE EXPECT THIS TO CONTINUE OVERNIGHT. WITH THIS...AREAS OF FOG AGAIN POSSIBLE TONIGHT NEAR THE COAST AND OUT OVER THE ADJACENT MARINE AREAS. LOWS TONIGHT IN THE MID TO UPPER 50S OVER INTERIOR COUNTIES.
BIG CHANGES ON THE WAY TUESDAY...WITH THE AFTERNOON HOURS (AND CONTINUING INTO THE EVENING HOURS...SEE SHORT TERM DISCUSSION BELOW) EXPECT TO HAVE A SIGNIFICANT CHANCE OF SEVERE WEATHER. THE DAY BEGINS WITH A RAPIDLY AMPLIFYING UPPER SYSTEM (BECOMING NEGATIVELY TILTED DURING THE COURSE OF THE DAY) SWINGING EAST OUT OF TEXAS TO NEAR NORTHEAST LOUISIANA BY THE END OF THE DAY. JUST TO THE EAST OF THE UPPER LOW...VERY INTENSE AND DEEPENING SFC LOW PRESSURE WILL LIFT NORTHEAST OUT OF SOUTHEAST COASTAL TEXAS TO NORTHEAST LOUISIANA (WHERE SOME MODEL OUTPUTS INDICATES A PRESSURE AS LOW AS 988 MB). ALL INGREDIENTS COMING TOGETHER FOR ONSET OF A SIGNIFICANT SEVERE WEATHER EVENT BY MID AFTERNOON (AND CONTINUING INTO THE EVENING). THREAT FOR SEVERE WEATHER WILL RAPIDLY INCREASE AFTER ABOUT 2 PM...ESPECIALLY OVER INTERIOR SOUTHEAST MISSISSIPPI AND MOVING INTO PORTIONS OF EXTREME SOUTHWEST ALABAMA THROUGH 6 PM. MODELS HAVE ALREADY BEEN NOTED TO BE UNDERESTIMATING THE INSTABILITY...ESPECIALLY THE GFS...WITH THE NAM AND ECMWF SEEMING TO ADJUST A LITTLE CLOSER WITH CURRENT TRENDS. FOR THIS REASON WE LEANED TOWARD A COMBINATION OF THESE TWO SOLUTIONS. WITH THE HIGHER MOISTURE LEVELS EXPECTED THAN MODELS SUGGEST...BELIEVE THE 1500 MUCAPES ADVERTISED TO BE DEVELOPING OVER OUR WESTERN FCST AREA BY LATE AFTERNOON BY THE NAM ARE NOT UNREASONABLE. IN ADDITION TO THESE CAPE VALUES...0-1KM SR-HEL VALUES APPROACHING 400 M2/S2 AND 0-3KM SR-HEL VALUES APPROACHING 500-600 M2/S2 OVER OUR SOUTHEAST MISSISSIPPI COUNTIES BY THE END OF THE DAY AS LOW LEVEL 850 JET INCREASES TO AT LEAST 55 KNOTS. AS SUCH...SPC HAS OUTLOOKED ALL OF OUR AREA UNDER A MODERATE RISK OF SEVERE WEATHER ON TUESDAY...AND STRONG AND LONG TRACKED TORNADOES WILL BE POSSIBLE. A WIND ADVISORY IS ALSO NOW IN EFFECT FOR THE ENTIRE AREA ON TUESDAY...AND BOTH A HIGH SURF ADVISORY AND HIGH RIP CURRENT RISKS ALONG THE COAST. HIGH TEMPS TUESDAY EXPECTED TO BE IN THE LOW TO MID 70S. 12/DS
.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN EXCELLENT AGREEMENT ALOFT AND AT THE SURFACE WITH THE POTENT STORM SYSTEM LIFTING UP ACROSS THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY AND MID-SOUTH TUESDAY EVENING. A STRONGLY REFLECTED NEGATIVE TILT CONFIGURATION TO THE MID LEVEL GEO-POTENTIAL HEIGHT FIELDS WILL INCREASE LARGE SCALE ASCENT WITHIN A WELL DEFINED WARM SECTOR TUESDAY EVENING OVER THE CENTRAL GULF COAST THAT IS FORECAST TO CONTAIN MODEST INSTABILITY. SUBSTANTIAL H50 HEIGHT FALLS TO BETWEEN 15 AND 20 DECAMETERS ROLLING ACROSS THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI RIVER DELTA RESULTS IN THE RAPID INTENSIFICATION TO A FRONTAL SURFACE LOW WHICH PROPAGATES NORTHEAST TO THE MID-SOUTH BY MIDNIGHT EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING. BETWEEN THE MODEL SOLUTIONS...CENTRAL PRESSURES LOWER TO A RANGE OF 988 TO 993 MILLIBARS NEAR MONROE LOUISIANA BY EARLY TUESDAY EVENING. FROM THERE...THE INTENSE LOW TRACKS NORTHEAST TO BETWEEN GREENVILLE AND OXFORD MISSISSIPPI BY MIDNIGHT EARLY WEDNESDAY AM TO JACKSON TENNESSEE BY DAYBREAK WEDNESDAY. THE ENSEMBLES INDICATE THAT THE STRENGTH OF THIS LOW IS AN ANOMALY WITH SURFACE CENTRAL PRESSURES SOME 3 TO 4 STANDARD DEVIATIONS BELOW THE MEAN. CONSIDERING THIS AND THE REPRESENTATION OF THE PHYSICAL SOLUTIONS IN THE SPECTRAL MODELS...THE WIND PROFILES IN THE LOWER LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE ARE FORECAST TO BE INTENSE OVER THE LOCAL AREA DURING THE EVENING. CONSIDERING THIS...SOUTHWESTERLY 0-3 KM BULK SHEAR MAGNITUDES TRENDING BETWEEN 45 AND 55 KNOTS COUPLED WITH STRONGLY BACKED SURFACE WINDS...HODOGRAPHS ARE STRONGLY CURVED WITH 0-1 KM STORM RELATIVE HELICITY VALUES BECOMING EXTREMELY HIGH...EXCEEDING 500 M2/S2. THIS FAVORS WELL DEFINED ROTATION IN STRONGLY DEVELOPED SUPERCELLS...WITH CONCERNS THAT WE COULD BE DEALING WITH INSTANCES OF STRONG AND LONG TRACK TORNADOES. OTHER SEVERE WEATHER THREATS WILL BE DAMAGING WINDS IN EXCESS OF 70 MPH AND GOLFBALL SIZE HAIL OR LARGER. FORECASTERS STRONGLY ENCOURAGE EVERYONE TO PLAN AHEAD...BE WEATHER AWARE AND VIGILANT INTO TUESDAY NIGHT. WITH THE EXPECTED STORM MOTION FORECAST TO BE RAPID...IT IS IMPORTANT TO MOVE QUICKLY TO A PLACE OF SAFETY IN THE EVENT A WARNING IS ISSUED FOR YOUR AREA.
COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO SWEEP EAST OF THE LOCAL AREA ON WEDNESDAY...BRINGING MUCH COOLER CONDITIONS TO THE LOCAL AREA. FORECASTERS EXPECT IT TO CONTINUE TO BE BREEZY TO WINDY AS STRONG PRESSURE GRADIENT REMAINS IN PLACE TO THE SOUTHWEST OF THE LARGE SURFACE LOW LIFTING UP ACROSS THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY. WILL CONTINUE IN A COOL NORTHWEST FLOW ON THURSDAY. WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHTS COLDER WITH MID/UPPER 30S INTERIOR TO UPPER 30S/LOWER 40S COAST WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.
.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE MOVES EAST ACROSS THE GULF COAST DURING THE OUTLOOK. HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER 50S FRIDAY WILL MODERATE INTO THE MID/UPPER 60S SUNDAY AND MONDAY. COLDEST NIGHT FRIDAY NIGHT WITH A FEW AREAS POSSIBLY SINKING TO NEAR FREEZING OVER SOME AREAS OF THE INTERIOR. OVERNIGHT LOWS MODERATE INTO THE WEEKEND. /10
