Tuesday, 2/23/16 - Severe Weather Possible (School Closures)

Are we expecting New Orleans schools to follow?

Very latest forecast sounding from the 00z NAM tonight...this is centered over the Houma/Thibodaux area:

That sounding shows high significant tornado parameters, with a PDS (particularly Dangerous situation) tornado as a possible risk.

In short, that sounding suggests some very bad weather. It's a model sounding, so it just shows potential.

OMG, ^^^^That's just absolutely incredible, possibly historic.

I've found that the 4km resolution NAM has had a tendency to deepen things too much too fast over the winter, and I certainly hope that is the case here.  That said, the 990-ish versions on the 12km and 32km aren't really all that great, either.

HOUSTON:


AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
917 PM CST MON FEB 22 2016

.DISCUSSION...
THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY HAS POSSIBLY STARTED DRIFTING NORTHWARD AT
MID EVENING. AS THE LINE OF STORMS FORMING IN WEST TEXAS MOVES
TOWARD SE TEXAS LATER TONIGHT...AM EXPECTING ADDITIONAL ACTIVITY
TO FORM AHEAD OF THE MAIN LINE OF STORMS...ESPECIALLY OVER THE
FRONTAL BOUNDARY THAT WILL BE OVER THE FORECAST AREA. THE LOCATION
OF THIS BOUNDARY WILL HELP DICTATE THE TREK OF THE SURFACE LOW
LATER TONIGHT AND ON TUESDAY.

LOOKING AT THE HIGH RESOLUTION MODELS...THE ARW AND NAM12 ARE
CLOSE TO THE CURRENT TIMING OF THE MAIN LINE OF STORMS. THE HRRR
AND RAP13 ARE A BIT FASTER. STILL THINK THAT THE MAIN LINE OF
STORMS WILL BEGIN AFFECTING THE WESTERN COUNTIES BETWEEN 3 AND 6
AM AND THEN MOVE TO THE INTERSTATE 45 CORRIDOR BETWEEN 6 AND 9 AM.
THE MAIN CONCERN FOR LATE TONIGHT AND TUESDAY WILL BE SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS...WITH THE MAIN HAZARDS ISOLATED TORNADOES...
DAMAGING WINDS...AND LARGE HAIL. THERE IS ALSO THE POSSIBILITY OF
LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL... ESPECIALLY WHERE THE SURFACE AND UPPER
LEVEL LOW PRESSURE AREAS TRAVEL. STILL LOOKS LIKE THE HEAVIEST
RAINFALL WILL BE NORTH OF INTERSTATE 10...ALTHOUGH THE RAP13 WAS
FORECASTING A FURTHER SOUTHWARD TRACK FOR THE SURFACE LOW AND
ASSOCIATED RAINFALL.

Ok y'all are starting to scare me now. Praying this will be a bust.