Tuesday, 2/23/16 - Severe Weather Possible (School Closures)

mobileweatherwatcher
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Tuesday, 2/23/16 - Severe Weather Possible (School Closures) Feb 22, 2016 17:04:05 GMT -6 via mobile

Post by mobileweatherwatcher on Feb 22, 2016 17:04:05 GMT -6

Feb 22, 2016 13:04:38 GMT -6 Zack Fradella said:

I think the SPC has the right location for the greatest risk area and the best chances of seeing that intense severe weather.

It doesn't matter what the setup is over the Gulf Coast, the close proximity to the cool Gulf water always keeps things in check. That doesn't mean we won't see severe weather from I-10 southward, it just means you can't get carried away with the wording. Discrete cells are what usually generates the worst severe weather and you struggle to get those to develop right at the coastline.

This is why usually coastal LA/South Shore becomes a breeding ground for those tornadic storms once they get north of I-12.

Would that be the case here in Alabama as well? I live just south of the interstate about 15 or 20 miles north of the Mississippi Sound. Either way, I'm paying attention to this obviously.

Last Edit: Feb 22, 2016 17:05:33 GMT -6 by mobileweatherwatcher: Spelling is our friend

nolastratus
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Tuesday, 2/23/16 - Severe Weather Possible (School Closures) Feb 22, 2016 17:19:33 GMT -6 via Tapatalk SKYSUMMIT likes this

Post by nolastratus on Feb 22, 2016 17:19:33 GMT -6

Feb 22, 2016 15:15:20 GMT -6 SKYSUMMIT said:

I heard talk of some area schools possibly having an early dismissal so everyone keep that in mind tomorrow in case they decide to do so.

From Wunderground:

Starting Monday night, the chance for severe storms will increase in the South, mainly in central and south Texas with large hail being the primary concern. A powerful low pressure system will bring a potential outbreak of severe storms and tornadoes to the South for the start of this week. The same area of low pressure will deliver a swath of snow and strong winds to the Midwest and Great Lakes.

A more widespread and significant bout of severe storms will spread through the Gulf Coast states Tuesday and Tuesday night, from southeast Texas into parts of Louisiana, Mississippi, Alabama and the western Florida panhandle. Tornadoes, damaging wind gusts and large hail are all possible threats from those storms.

School delays and closings:

www.wafb.com/story/31285294/school-delays-and-closures-due-to-weather?clienttype=generic

Last Edit: Feb 22, 2016 17:21:13 GMT -6 by SKYSUMMIT: fixed quote

All of my post, unless stated otherwise are opinionated and are in no way an official forecast.

nolastratus
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Tuesday, 2/23/16 - Severe Weather Possible (School Closures) Feb 22, 2016 17:23:57 GMT -6 via Tapatalk

Post by nolastratus on Feb 22, 2016 17:23:57 GMT -6

Feb 22, 2016 16:43:16 GMT -6 SKYSUMMIT said:

High Surf Advisories, Coastal Flood Advisories, Wind Advisories...we sure we don't have a hurricane coming?

Darn Gulf Stream! I think that may be contributing to the instability LIX and SPC are talking about. Looks like the Surface level low will work its way into Louisiana and destabilize the air mass as it moves tomorrow. Looks like timing is everything on how severe the risk is

All of my post, unless stated otherwise are opinionated and are in no way an official forecast.

nolastratus Category 1 Posts: 101	Tuesday, 2/23/16 - Severe Weather Possible (School Closures) Feb 22, 2016 17:38:19 GMT -6 via Tapatalk adiabaticcooling likes this Select Post Deselect Post Link to Post Back to Top Post by nolastratus on Feb 22, 2016 17:38:19 GMT -6 Skysummit have you seen the Cape instability data for tomorrow. It looks amazing. It shows the gulf stream potential energy crossing over Louisiana and Amplifying
	All of my post, unless stated otherwise are opinionated and are in no way an official forecast.

SKYSUMMIT
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Tuesday, 2/23/16 - Severe Weather Possible (School Closures) Feb 22, 2016 17:40:45 GMT -6 nolastratus likes this

Post by SKYSUMMIT on Feb 22, 2016 17:40:45 GMT -6

Feb 22, 2016 17:38:19 GMT -6 nolastratus said:

Skysummit have you seen the Cape instability data for tomorrow. It looks amazing. It shows the gulf stream potential energy crossing over Louisiana and Amplifying

Yes, MUCAPE could easily be pushing 1500j/kg...lots of energy to feed off.

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Briella - Houma Category 5 Posts: 8,421	Tuesday, 2/23/16 - Severe Weather Possible (School Closures) Feb 22, 2016 17:46:06 GMT -6 nolastratus likes this Select Post Deselect Post Link to Post Back to Top Post by Briella - Houma on Feb 22, 2016 17:46:06 GMT -6
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HuRriCAnE miLeS
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Tuesday, 2/23/16 - Severe Weather Possible (School Closures) Feb 22, 2016 17:47:02 GMT -6 ceds77 and weather2a like this

Post by HuRriCAnE miLeS on Feb 22, 2016 17:47:02 GMT -6

Feb 22, 2016 15:15:20 GMT -6 SKYSUMMIT said:

I heard talk of some area schools possibly having an early dismissal so everyone keep that in mind tomorrow in case they decide to do so.

From Wunderground:

Starting Monday night, the chance for severe storms will increase in the South, mainly in central and south Texas with large hail being the primary concern. A powerful low pressure system will bring a potential outbreak of severe storms and tornadoes to the South for the start of this week. The same area of low pressure will deliver a swath of snow and strong winds to the Midwest and Great Lakes.

A more widespread and significant bout of severe storms will spread through the Gulf Coast states Tuesday and Tuesday night, from southeast Texas into parts of Louisiana, Mississippi, Alabama and the western Florida panhandle. Tornadoes, damaging wind gusts and large hail are all possible threats from those storms.]/quote]

Not to derail things and go all political in here but this is just contributing to the continual pussification of America. Cancelling and closing schools early because se la is in an enhanced risk of severe weather. *tired

Not going to go back in history and say how we walked to school in a blizzard but will say for a fact we never got out early or day off just for the threat of severe t storms, that's a joke.

nolastratus
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Tuesday, 2/23/16 - Severe Weather Possible (School Closures) Feb 22, 2016 17:59:41 GMT -6 via Tapatalk

Post by nolastratus on Feb 22, 2016 17:59:41 GMT -6

Feb 22, 2016 17:46:06 GMT -6 Briella - Houma said:

last time we had a moderate risk was christmas 2012 EF3 tornado McNeil and weaker on Marrero

This kind of reminds me of the set up for the 2014 Tupelo tornado

All of my post, unless stated otherwise are opinionated and are in no way an official forecast.

Briella - Houma Category 5 Posts: 8,421	Tuesday, 2/23/16 - Severe Weather Possible (School Closures) Feb 22, 2016 18:21:48 GMT -6 Select Post Deselect Post Link to Post Back to Top Post by Briella - Houma on Feb 22, 2016 18:21:48 GMT -6
	Briella Helicity - The Weather Superstore www.helicity.co

weunice
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Tuesday, 2/23/16 - Severe Weather Possible (School Closures) Feb 22, 2016 18:23:32 GMT -6 Briella - Houma, PinkFreud - Nola FQ, and 1 more like this

Post by weunice on Feb 22, 2016 18:23:32 GMT -6

On the school closings .. think of it this way. We have had ENH threats before and the schools have remained open. School systems are in touch with Emergency Management folks who are in touch with the NWS and SPC. Chances are, what is happening, is that they realize the potential high end here is beyond the ENH. I fully expect the MOD to be expanded almost on the strength of the fact that schools are closing and that in itself is somewhat unusual. I do not remember schools closing with the last ENH but I may be wrong ...

pcolasky
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Tuesday, 2/23/16 - Severe Weather Possible (School Closures) Feb 22, 2016 18:31:05 GMT -6

Post by pcolasky on Feb 22, 2016 18:31:05 GMT -6

Feb 22, 2016 18:23:32 GMT -6 weunice said:

On the school closings .. think of it this way. We have had ENH threats before and the schools have remained open. School systems are in touch with Emergency Management folks who are in touch with the NWS and SPC. Chances are, what is happening, is that they realize the potential high end here is beyond the ENH. I fully expect the MOD to be expanded almost on the strength of the fact that schools are closing and that in itself is somewhat unusual. I do not remember schools closing with the last ENH but I may be wrong ...

In Pensacola here. We had an EF3 last Monday in Century and straight line winds blew off the front of an entire shopping center less than a mile from our house. Things aren't supposed to get bad here until after dark, but I say make a plan just in case!

SKYSUMMIT
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Tuesday, 2/23/16 - Severe Weather Possible (School Closures) Feb 22, 2016 18:47:34 GMT -6

Post by SKYSUMMIT on Feb 22, 2016 18:47:34 GMT -6

Looking west...Watch is coming in the next couple hours:

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0119
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0624 PM CST MON FEB 22 2016

AREAS AFFECTED...SOUTH-CENTRAL TX

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH LIKELY

VALID 230024Z - 230230Z

PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...80 PERCENT

SUMMARY...THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO INTENSIFY THIS EVENING OVER
THE TRANSPECOS REGION...SPREADING ACROSS THE EDWARDS PLATEAU DURING
THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS. THE RISK OF LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS
WILL INCREASE...WITH A WW LIKELY NEEDED WITHIN THE NEXT 1-2 HOURS.

DISCUSSION...WATER VAPOR LOOPS SHOW A FAST-MOVING SHORTWAVE TROUGH
DIGGING RAPIDLY SOUTHEASTWARD INTO WEST TX. STRONG LIFT IN ADVANCE
OF THIS SYSTEM IS BEGINNING TO AFFECT THE WESTERN EDGE OF DEEPER LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE...WITH THUNDERSTORMS INTENSIFYING ALONG A CORRIDOR
FROM NEAR MAF-MRF. A CONSENSUS OF CAM SOLUTIONS SUGGEST THESE
STORMS WILL LIKELY BECOME SEVERE AS THEY TRACK SOUTHEASTWARD INTO
THE EDWARDS PLATEAU REGION. LARGE HAIL WILL BE THE INITIAL
THREAT...BUT UPSCALE ORGANIZATION INTO BOWING LINE SEGMENTS WILL
ENHANCE THE DAMAGING WIND RISK BEFORE MIDNIGHT. CURRENT INDICATIONS
ARE THAT A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH WILL BE NEEDED WITHIN THE NEXT
1-2 HOURS FOR PORTIONS OF THIS REGION.

..HART/PETERS.. 02/23/2016

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SKYSUMMIT
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Tuesday, 2/23/16 - Severe Weather Possible (School Closures) Feb 22, 2016 18:53:41 GMT -6

Post by SKYSUMMIT on Feb 22, 2016 18:53:41 GMT -6

May as well stick this here:

SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
652 PM CST MON FEB 22 2016

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN MOBILE HAS ISSUED A

* SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR...
EAST CENTRAL WASHINGTON COUNTY IN SOUTHWESTERN ALABAMA...
CENTRAL CLARKE COUNTY IN SOUTHWESTERN ALABAMA...

* UNTIL 730 PM CST

* AT 651 PM CST...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WAS LOCATED NEAR WAGARVILLE...
OR 8 MILES SOUTHWEST OF JACKSON...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 20 MPH.

HAZARD...60 MPH WIND GUSTS.

SOURCE...RADAR INDICATED.

IMPACT...EXPECT DAMAGE TO ROOFS...SIDING...AND TREES.

* LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
JACKSON.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

FOR YOUR PROTECTION MOVE TO AN INTERIOR ROOM ON THE LOWEST FLOOR OF A
BUILDING.

&&

REALTOR - Team Geaux Realty, LLC (Let me be your Realtor!)
Search homes on my website --> www.scottguidry.com/
NWS COOP ID: 16-7425-08
CoCoRaHs ID: LA-TG-23

SKYSUMMIT Administrator President \| Director of Operations Posts: 64,788 Location: Hammond, LA Staff Member	Tuesday, 2/23/16 - Severe Weather Possible (School Closures) Feb 22, 2016 18:55:33 GMT -6 Select Post Deselect Post Link to Post Back to Top Post by SKYSUMMIT on Feb 22, 2016 18:55:33 GMT -6 ^^^even has rotation with it:
	REALTOR - Team Geaux Realty, LLC (Let me be your Realtor!) Search homes on my website --> www.scottguidry.com/ NWS COOP ID: 16-7425-08 CoCoRaHs ID: LA-TG-23

nolastratus
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Tuesday, 2/23/16 - Severe Weather Possible (School Closures) Feb 22, 2016 18:58:24 GMT -6 via Tapatalk SKYSUMMIT and roz like this

Post by nolastratus on Feb 22, 2016 18:58:24 GMT -6

Feb 22, 2016 18:23:32 GMT -6 weunice said:

On the school closings .. think of it this way. We have had ENH threats before and the schools have remained open. School systems are in touch with Emergency Management folks who are in touch with the NWS and SPC. Chances are, what is happening, is that they realize the potential high end here is beyond the ENH. I fully expect the MOD to be expanded almost on the strength of the fact that schools are closing and that in itself is somewhat unusual. I do not remember schools closing with the last ENH but I may be wrong ...

WWL will be doing full coverage all night due to spc.

www.wwltv.com/media/cinematic/video/80779384/weather-forecast-video/

All of my post, unless stated otherwise are opinionated and are in no way an official forecast.