I think the SPC has the right location for the greatest risk area and the best chances of seeing that intense severe weather.
It doesn't matter what the setup is over the Gulf Coast, the close proximity to the cool Gulf water always keeps things in check. That doesn't mean we won't see severe weather from I-10 southward, it just means you can't get carried away with the wording. Discrete cells are what usually generates the worst severe weather and you struggle to get those to develop right at the coastline.
This is why usually coastal LA/South Shore becomes a breeding ground for those tornadic storms once they get north of I-12.
Would that be the case here in Alabama as well? I live just south of the interstate about 15 or 20 miles north of the Mississippi Sound. Either way, I'm paying attention to this obviously.
Last Edit: Feb 22, 2016 17:05:33 GMT -6 by mobileweatherwatcher: Spelling is our friend
I heard talk of some area schools possibly having an early dismissal so everyone keep that in mind tomorrow in case they decide to do so.
From Wunderground:
Starting Monday night, the chance for severe storms will increase in the South, mainly in central and south Texas with large hail being the primary concern. A powerful low pressure system will bring a potential outbreak of severe storms and tornadoes to the South for the start of this week. The same area of low pressure will deliver a swath of snow and strong winds to the Midwest and Great Lakes.
A more widespread and significant bout of severe storms will spread through the Gulf Coast states Tuesday and Tuesday night, from southeast Texas into parts of Louisiana, Mississippi, Alabama and the western Florida panhandle. Tornadoes, damaging wind gusts and large hail are all possible threats from those storms.
High Surf Advisories, Coastal Flood Advisories, Wind Advisories...we sure we don't have a hurricane coming?
Darn Gulf Stream! I think that may be contributing to the instability LIX and SPC are talking about. Looks like the Surface level low will work its way into Louisiana and destabilize the air mass as it moves tomorrow. Looks like timing is everything on how severe the risk is
All of my post, unless stated otherwise are opinionated and are in no way an official forecast.
Post by nolastratus on Feb 22, 2016 17:38:19 GMT -6
Skysummit have you seen the Cape instability data for tomorrow. It looks amazing. It shows the gulf stream potential energy crossing over Louisiana and Amplifying
All of my post, unless stated otherwise are opinionated and are in no way an official forecast.
SKYSUMMIT President | Director of OperationsAdministrator
Skysummit have you seen the Cape instability data for tomorrow. It looks amazing. It shows the gulf stream potential energy crossing over Louisiana and Amplifying
Yes, MUCAPE could easily be pushing 1500j/kg...lots of energy to feed off.
Hammond, LA NWS COOP ID: 16-7425-08 CoCoRaHs ID: LA-TG-23
I heard talk of some area schools possibly having an early dismissal so everyone keep that in mind tomorrow in case they decide to do so.
From Wunderground:
Starting Monday night, the chance for severe storms will increase in the South, mainly in central and south Texas with large hail being the primary concern. A powerful low pressure system will bring a potential outbreak of severe storms and tornadoes to the South for the start of this week. The same area of low pressure will deliver a swath of snow and strong winds to the Midwest and Great Lakes.
A more widespread and significant bout of severe storms will spread through the Gulf Coast states Tuesday and Tuesday night, from southeast Texas into parts of Louisiana, Mississippi, Alabama and the western Florida panhandle. Tornadoes, damaging wind gusts and large hail are all possible threats from those storms.]/quote]
Not to derail things and go all political in here but this is just contributing to the continual pussification of America. Cancelling and closing schools early because se la is in an enhanced risk of severe weather. *tired
Not going to go back in history and say how we walked to school in a blizzard but will say for a fact we never got out early or day off just for the threat of severe t storms, that's a joke.
On the school closings .. think of it this way. We have had ENH threats before and the schools have remained open. School systems are in touch with Emergency Management folks who are in touch with the NWS and SPC. Chances are, what is happening, is that they realize the potential high end here is beyond the ENH. I fully expect the MOD to be expanded almost on the strength of the fact that schools are closing and that in itself is somewhat unusual. I do not remember schools closing with the last ENH but I may be wrong ...
On the school closings .. think of it this way. We have had ENH threats before and the schools have remained open. School systems are in touch with Emergency Management folks who are in touch with the NWS and SPC. Chances are, what is happening, is that they realize the potential high end here is beyond the ENH. I fully expect the MOD to be expanded almost on the strength of the fact that schools are closing and that in itself is somewhat unusual. I do not remember schools closing with the last ENH but I may be wrong ...
In Pensacola here. We had an EF3 last Monday in Century and straight line winds blew off the front of an entire shopping center less than a mile from our house. Things aren't supposed to get bad here until after dark, but I say make a plan just in case!
SKYSUMMIT President | Director of OperationsAdministrator
SUMMARY...THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO INTENSIFY THIS EVENING OVER THE TRANSPECOS REGION...SPREADING ACROSS THE EDWARDS PLATEAU DURING THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS. THE RISK OF LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS WILL INCREASE...WITH A WW LIKELY NEEDED WITHIN THE NEXT 1-2 HOURS.
DISCUSSION...WATER VAPOR LOOPS SHOW A FAST-MOVING SHORTWAVE TROUGH DIGGING RAPIDLY SOUTHEASTWARD INTO WEST TX. STRONG LIFT IN ADVANCE OF THIS SYSTEM IS BEGINNING TO AFFECT THE WESTERN EDGE OF DEEPER LOW LEVEL MOISTURE...WITH THUNDERSTORMS INTENSIFYING ALONG A CORRIDOR FROM NEAR MAF-MRF. A CONSENSUS OF CAM SOLUTIONS SUGGEST THESE STORMS WILL LIKELY BECOME SEVERE AS THEY TRACK SOUTHEASTWARD INTO THE EDWARDS PLATEAU REGION. LARGE HAIL WILL BE THE INITIAL THREAT...BUT UPSCALE ORGANIZATION INTO BOWING LINE SEGMENTS WILL ENHANCE THE DAMAGING WIND RISK BEFORE MIDNIGHT. CURRENT INDICATIONS ARE THAT A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH WILL BE NEEDED WITHIN THE NEXT 1-2 HOURS FOR PORTIONS OF THIS REGION.
..HART/PETERS.. 02/23/2016
Hammond, LA NWS COOP ID: 16-7425-08 CoCoRaHs ID: LA-TG-23
SKYSUMMIT President | Director of OperationsAdministrator
On the school closings .. think of it this way. We have had ENH threats before and the schools have remained open. School systems are in touch with Emergency Management folks who are in touch with the NWS and SPC. Chances are, what is happening, is that they realize the potential high end here is beyond the ENH. I fully expect the MOD to be expanded almost on the strength of the fact that schools are closing and that in itself is somewhat unusual. I do not remember schools closing with the last ENH but I may be wrong ...
WWL will be doing full coverage all night due to spc.