Post by SKYSUMMIT on Mar 30, 2016 10:20:39 GMT -6
NEW ORLEANS:
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
1119 AM CDT WED MAR 30 2016
.UPDATE...
UPDATED FORECAST TO REFLECT CURRENT TRENDS WHICH IS NO RAIN ON
RADAR/NO WEATHER...TRANSITIONING TO A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS
EARLY THIS AFTERNOON THEN HIGHER CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS BY MID TO LATE AFTERNOON. THE EXCEPTION WILL BE FOR
THE SOUTHEAST/EAST COASTAL AREAS THAT WILL LIKELY NOT SEE MUCH IF
ANY CONVECTION TODAY. AS MENTIONED IN THE SOUNDING
DISCUSSION...AND UPPER LEVEL INVERSION NEAR 340 MB IS LIMITING
CAPE TODAY...DRAMATICALLY SO COMPARED TO YESTERDAY WHEN BOTH LARGE
CAPE AND STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES SUPPORTED THE SEVERE CRITERIA
HAIL THAT OCCURRED YESTERDAY AFTERNOON. GFS MODEL SOUNDINGS
INDICATE THE UPPER LEVEL INVERSION WILL LOWER FURTHER TODAY
LOWERING THE POTENTIAL CAPE. CURRENT RADAR DEPICTION WITH A
GROWING RING OF LOW 5 TO 15 DBZ RETURNS IS LIKELY VERIFICATION
THAT THE INVERSION IS IN FACT LOWERING. EVEN WITH THESE
NEGATIVES...THERE IS STILL ENOUGH DYNAMICS...INSTABILITY AND LIFT
WITH DAYTIME HEATING FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS LATER
THIS AFTERNOON...HOWEVER SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL WILL LIKELY
REMAIN NEGLIGIBLE UNTIL LATER THIS EVENING OR OVERNIGHT WHEN BOTH
KINEMATIC AND THERMODYNAMIC PROFILES WILL BECOME MORE FAVORABLE
NORTH OF I-12 AND WEST OF I-59. 22/TD
LAKE CHARLES:
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
1105 AM CDT WED MAR 30 2016
.DISCUSSION...
REGIONAL 88DS SHOW SPOTTY SHOWERS DEVELOPING MAINLY OVER THE WRN
1/2 OF THE FORECAST AREA ATTM. LOCAL 12Z SOUNDING CAME IN A
LITTLE MOISTER THAN 24 HOURS AGO FROM A PWAT PERSPECTIVE...
ALTHOUGH BEST MOISTURE REMAINS AOB H8. ALSO SHOWING SOME CAPPING
AROUND 900MB WHICH ALONG WITH LIMITED INSOLATION/INSTABILITY HAS
KEPT THUNDERSTORMS AT BAY SO FAR. HOWEVER MODIFIED SEVERE
PARAMETERS SHOWED GOOD INSTABILITY...DECENT CAPE/LAPSE
RATES/HELICITY. VISIBLE IMAGERY SHOWS OCCASIONAL BREAKS IN THE
OVERCAST WHICH WILL LIKELY CONTINUE INTO THE AFTERNOON...THUS
ALLOWING ADDITIONAL HEATING AND DESTABILIZATION TO OCCUR. THROW
IN ADDITIONAL LIFT FROM WEAK DISTURBANCE ALOFT NOTED UPSTREAM AND
EXPECT CONVECTION TO BECOME MORE WIDESPREAD THIS AFTERNOON. HAVING
SAID ALL THAT INHERITED GRIDS/ZONES LOOK IN GOOD SHAPE...MORNING
POPS MAY BE SLIGHTLY OVERDONE BUT WILL LET RIDE FOR REMAINDER OF
THE FIRST PERIOD.
SHREVEPORT:
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
1121 AM CDT WED MAR 30 2016
.DISCUSSION...
HAVE MADE CHANGES TO THE ONGOING FORECAST BY INCLUDING A LAKE
WIND ADVISORY FOR THE FOUR STATE REGION AND WILL CARRY IT UNTIL 10
PM THIS EVENING. SOME LOCATIONS MAY NOT SEE THE STRONG AND GUSTY
WINDS BUT WOULD BE DIFFICULT TO PIN POINT THOSE SITES FROM THE
LARGE PRESSURE GRADIENT THAT WILL BE IN PLACE. THE GRADIENT
BETWEEN THE LARGE SURFACE LOW OVER THE PLAINS AND HIGH PRESSURE
OVER THE EASTERN STATES WILL RESULT IN STRONG AND GUSTY WINDS OF
15 TO 25 MPH WITH HIGHER GUSTS TO NEAR 30 MPH. MOST ALL THE FOUR
STATE REGION WILL BE IN AN ENHANCED RISK FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS
THROUGH 7 AM CDT THURSDAY AND HAVE INCLUDED THE MENTION OF SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS IN THE FORECAST PRODUCTS AND INCREASED THE WIND
SPEEDS.
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
1119 AM CDT WED MAR 30 2016
.UPDATE...
UPDATED FORECAST TO REFLECT CURRENT TRENDS WHICH IS NO RAIN ON
RADAR/NO WEATHER...TRANSITIONING TO A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS
EARLY THIS AFTERNOON THEN HIGHER CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS BY MID TO LATE AFTERNOON. THE EXCEPTION WILL BE FOR
THE SOUTHEAST/EAST COASTAL AREAS THAT WILL LIKELY NOT SEE MUCH IF
ANY CONVECTION TODAY. AS MENTIONED IN THE SOUNDING
DISCUSSION...AND UPPER LEVEL INVERSION NEAR 340 MB IS LIMITING
CAPE TODAY...DRAMATICALLY SO COMPARED TO YESTERDAY WHEN BOTH LARGE
CAPE AND STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES SUPPORTED THE SEVERE CRITERIA
HAIL THAT OCCURRED YESTERDAY AFTERNOON. GFS MODEL SOUNDINGS
INDICATE THE UPPER LEVEL INVERSION WILL LOWER FURTHER TODAY
LOWERING THE POTENTIAL CAPE. CURRENT RADAR DEPICTION WITH A
GROWING RING OF LOW 5 TO 15 DBZ RETURNS IS LIKELY VERIFICATION
THAT THE INVERSION IS IN FACT LOWERING. EVEN WITH THESE
NEGATIVES...THERE IS STILL ENOUGH DYNAMICS...INSTABILITY AND LIFT
WITH DAYTIME HEATING FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS LATER
THIS AFTERNOON...HOWEVER SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL WILL LIKELY
REMAIN NEGLIGIBLE UNTIL LATER THIS EVENING OR OVERNIGHT WHEN BOTH
KINEMATIC AND THERMODYNAMIC PROFILES WILL BECOME MORE FAVORABLE
NORTH OF I-12 AND WEST OF I-59. 22/TD
LAKE CHARLES:
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
1105 AM CDT WED MAR 30 2016
.DISCUSSION...
REGIONAL 88DS SHOW SPOTTY SHOWERS DEVELOPING MAINLY OVER THE WRN
1/2 OF THE FORECAST AREA ATTM. LOCAL 12Z SOUNDING CAME IN A
LITTLE MOISTER THAN 24 HOURS AGO FROM A PWAT PERSPECTIVE...
ALTHOUGH BEST MOISTURE REMAINS AOB H8. ALSO SHOWING SOME CAPPING
AROUND 900MB WHICH ALONG WITH LIMITED INSOLATION/INSTABILITY HAS
KEPT THUNDERSTORMS AT BAY SO FAR. HOWEVER MODIFIED SEVERE
PARAMETERS SHOWED GOOD INSTABILITY...DECENT CAPE/LAPSE
RATES/HELICITY. VISIBLE IMAGERY SHOWS OCCASIONAL BREAKS IN THE
OVERCAST WHICH WILL LIKELY CONTINUE INTO THE AFTERNOON...THUS
ALLOWING ADDITIONAL HEATING AND DESTABILIZATION TO OCCUR. THROW
IN ADDITIONAL LIFT FROM WEAK DISTURBANCE ALOFT NOTED UPSTREAM AND
EXPECT CONVECTION TO BECOME MORE WIDESPREAD THIS AFTERNOON. HAVING
SAID ALL THAT INHERITED GRIDS/ZONES LOOK IN GOOD SHAPE...MORNING
POPS MAY BE SLIGHTLY OVERDONE BUT WILL LET RIDE FOR REMAINDER OF
THE FIRST PERIOD.
SHREVEPORT:
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
1121 AM CDT WED MAR 30 2016
.DISCUSSION...
HAVE MADE CHANGES TO THE ONGOING FORECAST BY INCLUDING A LAKE
WIND ADVISORY FOR THE FOUR STATE REGION AND WILL CARRY IT UNTIL 10
PM THIS EVENING. SOME LOCATIONS MAY NOT SEE THE STRONG AND GUSTY
WINDS BUT WOULD BE DIFFICULT TO PIN POINT THOSE SITES FROM THE
LARGE PRESSURE GRADIENT THAT WILL BE IN PLACE. THE GRADIENT
BETWEEN THE LARGE SURFACE LOW OVER THE PLAINS AND HIGH PRESSURE
OVER THE EASTERN STATES WILL RESULT IN STRONG AND GUSTY WINDS OF
15 TO 25 MPH WITH HIGHER GUSTS TO NEAR 30 MPH. MOST ALL THE FOUR
STATE REGION WILL BE IN AN ENHANCED RISK FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS
THROUGH 7 AM CDT THURSDAY AND HAVE INCLUDED THE MENTION OF SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS IN THE FORECAST PRODUCTS AND INCREASED THE WIND
SPEEDS.
