Post by HarahanTim-Now in Gallatin, TN on Mar 28, 2016 4:41:20 GMT -6
Our next system to watch, will be arriving late Wednesday, into Thursday. The is a "Slight" risk of severe weather, for all of Louisiana and southern Mississippi, on the three day outlook.
DAY 3 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK CORR 1
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0251 AM CDT MON MAR 28 2016
VALID 301200Z - 311200Z
...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM A PORTION OF THE CNTRL AND
SRN PLAINS INTO THE LOWER-MID MS VALLEY...
...THERE IS A MRGL RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM A PORTION OF THE PLAINS
INTO THE MS VALLEY AREAS...
CORRECTED FOR DAY OF THE WEEK IN SUMMARY.
...SUMMARY...
STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE FROM PORTIONS OF THE
CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PLAINS INTO THE LOWER TO MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY REGION ON WEDNESDAY. THREAT MAY PERSIST INTO THE OVERNIGHT
OVER THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AREA. DAMAGING WIND...LARGE HAIL
AND TORNADOES WILL BE POSSIBLE.
...SYNOPSIS...
MODELS HAVE TRENDED TOWARD SIMILAR SOLUTIONS REGARDING AMPLITUDE AND
TIMING OF A SIGNIFICANT SHORTWAVE TROUGH THAT WILL ROTATE THROUGH
BASE OF WRN U.S. CUTOFF UPPER LOW TUESDAY BEFORE EMERGING OVER THE
CNTRL HIGH PLAINS BY LATE MORNING WEDNESDAY. THIS FEATURE WILL
CONTINUE ENEWD INTO THE MID-UPPER MS VALLEY REGION. LEE SFC LOW WILL
DEEPEN IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND MOVE NEWD
THROUGH NEB INTO IA BY WEDNESDAY NIGHT. TRAILING COLD FRONT WILL
MERGE WITH DRYLINE AND CONTINUE SEWD THROUGH THE CNTRL AND SRN
PLAINS AND MID MS VALLEY AREA. FARTHER SOUTH A FAST MOVING
SUBTROPICAL JET WILL MOVE THROUGH TX DURING THE DAY AND INTO THE
LOWER MS VALLEY WEDNESDAY EVENING AND OVERNIGHT.
...SRN AND CNTRL PLAINS THROUGH THE MID MS VALLEY AREA...
PARTIALLY MODIFIED GULF AIR WILL RETURN NWD ALONG A STRONG SLY LLJ
AND BENEATH AN EML CONTRIBUTING TO MODERATE INSTABILITY ALONG WITH A
CAPPING INVERSION. LOW CLOUDS AND PRESENCE OF THE CAP MAY LIMIT
SFC-BASED THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT...ESPECIALLY WITH SWD EXTENT
ALONG THE DRYLINE. MOREOVER...THE LLJ WILL GRADUALLY VEER AND SHIFT
EWD DURING THE DAY. LOW-CLOUDS SHOULD GRADUALLY MIX OUT FROM THE
WEST...AND FORCING ATTENDING THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND ACCOMPANYING
COLD FRONT WILL LIKELY CONTRIBUTE TO THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT FROM
ERN NEB SWD THROUGH CNTRL/ERN KS. DEVELOPMENT MIGHT OCCUR AS FAR
SOUTH AS CNTRL/ERN OK AND NCNTRL TX ALONG DRYLINE...BUT IS MORE
CONDITIONAL ON NWD EXTENT OF EARLY ELEVATED CONVECTION THAT COULD
AFFECT PARTS OF OK AND NRN TX. WHERE SFC-BASED STORMS
DEVELOP...STRONG DEEP SHEAR WILL SUPPORT ORGANIZED SEVERE STORMS
INCLUDING A FEW SUPERCELLS.
...ERN TX INTO THE LOWER MS VALLEY REGION...
RICH GULF MOISTURE WITH UPPER 60S TO NEAR 70 F DEWPOINTS WILL ADVECT
NWD THROUGH THE WARM SECTOR IN ADVANCE OF A PROGRESSIVE UPPER JET
MAXIMUM. CURRENT INDICATIONS ARE THAT AT LEAST SOME STORMS WILL
DEVELOP EARLY WITHIN THE WARM ADVECTION REGIME AHEAD OF THIS FEATURE
AND LOWERS CONFIDENCE WHERE THE BEST DESTABILIZATION WILL EVOLVE
COINCIDENT WITH STRENGTHENING DEEP LAYER WINDS. GIVEN THE RICH
LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE AND FAVORABLE LOW-LEVEL HODOGRAPHS...A THREAT
WILL EXIST FOR SOME STORMS TO INTENSIFY AND DEVELOP SUPERCELL
STRUCTURES FROM ERN TX AND SPREADING INTO THE LOWER MS VALLEY.
THREAT WILL EXIST FOR A FEW TORNADOES...DAMAGING WIND AND HAIL. THIS
AREA WILL CONTINUE TO BE MONITORED FOR POSSIBLE HIGHER PROBABILITIES
IN LATER OUTLOOKS...BUT UNCERTAINTY REGARDING EXTENT OF EARLY
CONVECTION LOWERS CONFIDENCE IN MORE THAN A SLIGHT RISK AREA AT THIS
TIME.
DAY 3 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK CORR 1
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0251 AM CDT MON MAR 28 2016
VALID 301200Z - 311200Z
...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM A PORTION OF THE CNTRL AND
SRN PLAINS INTO THE LOWER-MID MS VALLEY...
...THERE IS A MRGL RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM A PORTION OF THE PLAINS
INTO THE MS VALLEY AREAS...
CORRECTED FOR DAY OF THE WEEK IN SUMMARY.
...SUMMARY...
STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE FROM PORTIONS OF THE
CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PLAINS INTO THE LOWER TO MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY REGION ON WEDNESDAY. THREAT MAY PERSIST INTO THE OVERNIGHT
OVER THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AREA. DAMAGING WIND...LARGE HAIL
AND TORNADOES WILL BE POSSIBLE.
...SYNOPSIS...
MODELS HAVE TRENDED TOWARD SIMILAR SOLUTIONS REGARDING AMPLITUDE AND
TIMING OF A SIGNIFICANT SHORTWAVE TROUGH THAT WILL ROTATE THROUGH
BASE OF WRN U.S. CUTOFF UPPER LOW TUESDAY BEFORE EMERGING OVER THE
CNTRL HIGH PLAINS BY LATE MORNING WEDNESDAY. THIS FEATURE WILL
CONTINUE ENEWD INTO THE MID-UPPER MS VALLEY REGION. LEE SFC LOW WILL
DEEPEN IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND MOVE NEWD
THROUGH NEB INTO IA BY WEDNESDAY NIGHT. TRAILING COLD FRONT WILL
MERGE WITH DRYLINE AND CONTINUE SEWD THROUGH THE CNTRL AND SRN
PLAINS AND MID MS VALLEY AREA. FARTHER SOUTH A FAST MOVING
SUBTROPICAL JET WILL MOVE THROUGH TX DURING THE DAY AND INTO THE
LOWER MS VALLEY WEDNESDAY EVENING AND OVERNIGHT.
...SRN AND CNTRL PLAINS THROUGH THE MID MS VALLEY AREA...
PARTIALLY MODIFIED GULF AIR WILL RETURN NWD ALONG A STRONG SLY LLJ
AND BENEATH AN EML CONTRIBUTING TO MODERATE INSTABILITY ALONG WITH A
CAPPING INVERSION. LOW CLOUDS AND PRESENCE OF THE CAP MAY LIMIT
SFC-BASED THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT...ESPECIALLY WITH SWD EXTENT
ALONG THE DRYLINE. MOREOVER...THE LLJ WILL GRADUALLY VEER AND SHIFT
EWD DURING THE DAY. LOW-CLOUDS SHOULD GRADUALLY MIX OUT FROM THE
WEST...AND FORCING ATTENDING THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND ACCOMPANYING
COLD FRONT WILL LIKELY CONTRIBUTE TO THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT FROM
ERN NEB SWD THROUGH CNTRL/ERN KS. DEVELOPMENT MIGHT OCCUR AS FAR
SOUTH AS CNTRL/ERN OK AND NCNTRL TX ALONG DRYLINE...BUT IS MORE
CONDITIONAL ON NWD EXTENT OF EARLY ELEVATED CONVECTION THAT COULD
AFFECT PARTS OF OK AND NRN TX. WHERE SFC-BASED STORMS
DEVELOP...STRONG DEEP SHEAR WILL SUPPORT ORGANIZED SEVERE STORMS
INCLUDING A FEW SUPERCELLS.
...ERN TX INTO THE LOWER MS VALLEY REGION...
RICH GULF MOISTURE WITH UPPER 60S TO NEAR 70 F DEWPOINTS WILL ADVECT
NWD THROUGH THE WARM SECTOR IN ADVANCE OF A PROGRESSIVE UPPER JET
MAXIMUM. CURRENT INDICATIONS ARE THAT AT LEAST SOME STORMS WILL
DEVELOP EARLY WITHIN THE WARM ADVECTION REGIME AHEAD OF THIS FEATURE
AND LOWERS CONFIDENCE WHERE THE BEST DESTABILIZATION WILL EVOLVE
COINCIDENT WITH STRENGTHENING DEEP LAYER WINDS. GIVEN THE RICH
LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE AND FAVORABLE LOW-LEVEL HODOGRAPHS...A THREAT
WILL EXIST FOR SOME STORMS TO INTENSIFY AND DEVELOP SUPERCELL
STRUCTURES FROM ERN TX AND SPREADING INTO THE LOWER MS VALLEY.
THREAT WILL EXIST FOR A FEW TORNADOES...DAMAGING WIND AND HAIL. THIS
AREA WILL CONTINUE TO BE MONITORED FOR POSSIBLE HIGHER PROBABILITIES
IN LATER OUTLOOKS...BUT UNCERTAINTY REGARDING EXTENT OF EARLY
CONVECTION LOWERS CONFIDENCE IN MORE THAN A SLIGHT RISK AREA AT THIS
TIME.
