Post by Briella - Houma on Mar 31, 2016 23:47:38 GMT -6
DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1225 AM CDT FRI APR 01 2016
VALID 011200Z - 021200Z
...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM THE CNTRL GULF COAST NEWD
TO THE MID ATLANTIC...
...THERE IS A MRGL RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM SERN TX EWD TO THE MID
ATLANTIC AND NWD INTO SWRN NEW ENGLAND...
...SUMMARY...
SCATTERED STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE DURING THE DAY
ON THURSDAY ACROSS THE MID ATLANTIC STATES...WITH A SEVERE THREAT
ALSO DEVELOPING LATE FRIDAY NIGHT ACROSS THE CENTRAL GULF COAST AND
SOUTHEAST. DAMAGING WIND GUSTS AND A FEW TORNADOES ARE THE MAIN
THREATS.
...SYNOPSIS...
A STRONG SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL MOVE FROM THE OH VALLEY NEWD ACROSS
NEW ENGLAND WHILE A LOWER-AMPLITUDE SRN-STREAM TROUGH EJECTS NEWD
FROM TX TOWARD THE SERN STATES. AT THE SURFACE...A PRESSURE TROUGH
WILL EXTEND FROM NEW ENGLAND SWD ACROSS THE MID ATLANTIC DURING THE
DAY...BECOME DIFFUSE ACROSS THE DEEP SOUTH BUT A COLD FRONT WILL
ALREADY BE SURGING S ACROSS TX IN RESPONSE TO THE SRN STREAM SYSTEM.
AMPLE MOISTURE AND WIND SHEAR WILL EXIST FROM THE MID ATLANTIC SWWD
TOWARD THE CNTRL GULF COAST TO SUPPORT SCATTERED SEVERE STORMS
THROUGH THE PERIOD. THE TWO MAIN AREAS OF CONCERN INCLUDE THE MID
ATLANTIC DURING THE EARLY DAY...AND THE CNTRL GULF COAST INTO THE
SERN STATES OVERNIGHT AND INTO SATURDAY MORNING.
...MID ATLANTIC REGION DURING THE DAY...
NUMEROUS STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO BE ONGOING ACROSS THE WRN CAROLINAS
AND INTO WRN VA FRIDAY MORNING...ON THE NOSE OF A 50 KT SWLY
LOW-LEVEL JET IN ASSOCIATION WITH INTENSIFYING OH VALLEY SHORTWAVE
TROUGH AND 100 KT MIDLEVEL SPEED MAX. SUFFICIENT INSTABILITY WILL BE
PRESENT ACROSS THE WARM SECTOR VIA PERSISTENT SWLY SFC WINDS WITH
MID 60S F DEWPOINTS TO THE DELMARVA SUPPORTING STRONG TO SEVERE
STORMS. IMPRESSIVE SWLY FLOW IN THE LOWEST 3 KM AS WELL AS VEERING
IN THE LOW LEVELS WITH 200-300 M2/S2 SRH OVER ERN VA/NC POINT
TOWARDS SEVERE WIND AND PERHAPS A FEW TORNADOES WITH BOWS AND/OR
EMBEDDED SUPERCELLS. THIS ACTIVITY WILL QUICKLY MOVE ACROSS THE
REGION AND WILL BE NEAR THE COAST AROUND 18Z. THE WEAK INSTABILITY
AND COMPLEX STORM MODE WILL PRECLUDE GREATER SEVERE
PROBABILITIES...BUT A SMALL CORRIDOR OF ENHANCED RISK COULD
EVENTUALLY MATERIALIZE ACROSS VA AND NC.
LATER IN THE DAY...ADDITIONAL ISOLATED STORMS MAY ALSO FORM ON THE
COLD FRONT FROM WRN NC INTO NRN GA WITH A HAIL THREAT...WITH MAINLY
LONG STRAIGHT-LINE HODOGRAPHS.
...SRN AL/GA/FL PANHANDLE DURING THE DAY...
AREAS OF STORMS WILL ALSO BE ONGOING EARLY IN THE DAY FROM GA SWWD
TOWARD THE CNTRL GULF COAST WITH A VERY MOIST AIR MASS.
HOWEVER...INSTABILITY WILL BE SOMEWHAT LIMITED DUE TO WARM
TEMPERATURES ALOFT AND AIR MASS AT THAT TIME...AND ONLY FOCUSED BY
OUTFLOW AND A WEAK SFC TROUGH. ANY SEVERE THREAT WITH THIS ACTIVITY
SHOULD BE ISOLATED AND MARGINAL.
...CENTRAL GULF COAST INTO SRN GA OVERNIGHT...
AS A SRN STREAM SPEED MAX EJECTS NEWD OUT OF TX AND ACROSS THE GULF
COAST STATES...SHEAR PROFILES AND LIFT WITH BOTH INCREASE WITH 70S F
DEWPOINTS LURKING OFFSHORE. A 40-50 KT SWLY LOW-LEVEL JET IS
FORECAST TO DEVELOP FROM THE NRN GULF OF MEXICO INTO SRN AL/GA AND
THE FL PANHANDLE...WHICH WILL BRING INSTABILITY ONSHORE ALONG WITH
VEERING WIND PROFILES WITH HEIGHT. THE RESULT MAY BE A REJUVENATED
SEVERE THREAT...WITH LOCALIZED WIND DAMAGE AND A TORNADO OR TWO.
SBCAPE IS FORECAST TO SPREAD WELL ONSHORE WITH A SEVERE THREAT
EXTENDING AS FAR NEWD AS SRN GA SAT MORNING.
...SERN TX/LA DURING THE DAY...
ALTHOUGH THE COLD FRONT WILL BE S OF THE AREA WITH A STABLE SFC AIR
MASS...SUBSTANTIAL ELEVATED INSTABILITY IS FORECAST TO DEVELOP WITH
STRONG 850 MB THETA-E ADVECTION BY EARLY AFTERNOON. FORECAST
SOUNDINGS INDICATE OVER 1500 J/KG MUCAPE...AND STRONG SHEAR IN THE
CLOUD-BEARING LAYER SUPPORTIVE OF ELEVATED HAILSTORMS WITH ANY CELLS
THAT DEVELOP.
