Post by Briella - Houma on Aug 30, 2017 5:55:35 GMT -6
NHC_Atlantic
Advisories will likely be initiated at 11 AM EDT on the low pressure area west of the Cabo Verde Islands. #93L
Tropical Weather Outlook NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 800 AM EDT Wed Aug 30 2017
For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:
The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Tropical Storm Harvey, located over southwestern Louisiana.
1. Satellite images indicate that the low pressure area a couple hundred miles west of the Cabo Verde Islands has become better organized overnight, and advisories will likely be initiated at 11 AM EDT on a tropical cyclone. The system is forecast to gradually intensify and move west-northwestward to westward at about 15 mph over the tropical Atlantic during the next several days. * Formation chance through 48 hours...high...near 100 percent. * Formation chance through 5 days...high...near 100 percent.
Post by Tropic Novice on Aug 30, 2017 7:27:59 GMT -6
is this true.. just read this on NOLA.Com Tropical Storm Irma formed Wednesday morning (Aug. 30) in the Atlantic Ocean near the Cabo Verde Islands, the National Hurricane Center said at 8 a.m.
Post by HarahanTim - Now in Covington! on Aug 30, 2017 7:33:43 GMT -6
1. Satellite images indicate that the low pressure area a couple hundred miles west of the Cabo Verde Islands has become better organized overnight, and advisories will likely be initiated at 11 AM EDT on a tropical cyclone. The system is forecast to gradually intensify and move west-northwestward to westward at about 15 mph over the tropical Atlantic during the next several days. * Formation chance through 48 hours...high...near 100 percent. * Formation chance through 5 days...high...near 100 percent.
Since it formed so early. Better chance it is a fish.
Is that true? I thought based on models so far it seemed like we had a long tracker one here.
GFS took it to out to sea last run. Still watching of course. But the vast majority of waves that develop that far out dont make it all the way across the pond.
Last Edit: Aug 30, 2017 7:42:19 GMT -6 by cajungal
Is that true? I thought based on models so far it seemed like we had a long tracker one here.
GFS took it to out to sea last run. Still watching of course. But the vast majority of waves that develop that far out dont make it all the way across the pond.
Still too early to tell, for now models agree that the ridge to the north of Irma over the Atlantic Ocean will be too strong for it to recurve this early, east of 60th longitude. The question comes in the 8-14 day range if the ridge will continue retrograding westward with it or will it give in the trough setting itself across the eastern US recurving out out to sea between the eastern US and Bermuda or much closer threatening the US. At this time the gulf coast has nothing to worry about, but if the ridging over the Atlantic proves to be stronger than what the models show then this could be a threat to the Greater Antilles, FL and or gulf coast. IMO.
Shoutbox
frankp: Hey neighbor can u please send me the local Alabama weather forum that you follow, much appreciated… frank
Jan 21, 2023 13:57:45 GMT -6
frankp: Hey neighbor, can u send the the link of the Alabama weather forum you visit, much appreciated
Jan 21, 2023 13:55:49 GMT -6
SKYSUMMIT: I'm hoping we're shoveling snow for Christmas
Nov 16, 2022 14:58:12 GMT -6
stormydds: Thanks for your reply... as usual
Nov 5, 2022 11:37:29 GMT -6
Zack Fradella: Yea, Lezak had a paper peer reviewed and published a year or so ago.
Nov 5, 2022 9:03:24 GMT -6
stormydds: Thanks for your response. I felt that is the case. that's too bad. Has there been any peer reviewed papers on the LRC hypothesis?
Nov 4, 2022 14:01:51 GMT -6
Zack Fradella: Not sure, the LRC is something that takes a lot of work to follow and keep up with. It's not as easy as looking at the parameters and making a forecast. This deters many from even giving it a chance. Also, there is some doubt from the weather world.
Nov 4, 2022 3:38:49 GMT -6
stormydds: Zack, a friend had a meeting in Lafayette which Rob Perillo spoke.He asked him why the LRC is not used to forecast hurricanes by NOAA.His answer was that Lezak won't share the info.I saw the podcast you and David made with Gary.He seemed open.What gives?
Nov 3, 2022 14:39:19 GMT -6
SKYSUMMIT: Man I really hope that rain moves quickly on Saturday. I'm so pumped for 6 hours of awesome college football!
Nov 3, 2022 7:15:01 GMT -6
PinkFreud - Nola FQ: Been unblocked. Dylan says that the station took major damage, so no idea when they'll even be able to stream again, or be on the air. Hopefully, they will at least let their employees deal with their own property issues!
Oct 2, 2022 18:17:35 GMT -6
gullywasher: Seriously, must we deal with Bruce Katz at noon, 4, 5 AND 9. ?
Sept 30, 2022 20:03:25 GMT -6
PinkFreud - Nola FQ: According to another met on twitter, the kitten was rescued by a producer who's adopting it. Of course that hasn't stopped the angry mob, with torches and pitchforks, who are insisting that it's a lie.
Sept 29, 2022 17:48:05 GMT -6
nolachic: Pink - he's probably blocking people he doesn't personally know to keep his cell charged and to get his head straight, and I'm sure he is beyond exhausted.
Sept 29, 2022 9:23:35 GMT -6
SKYSUMMIT: I sent him a message yesterday as well, but he hasn't seen it.
Sept 29, 2022 5:46:06 GMT -6
PinkFreud - Nola FQ: Oh hell, I meant for that to be a message!
Sept 28, 2022 19:38:19 GMT -6
PinkFreud - Nola FQ: Dylan is taking a beating on Twitter. I just tried to send him a message of support, since we've been following each other for years, and HE BLOCKED ME!!!!!! Somebody who can get to him needs to do so, pronto!!! I'm very worried about him.
Sept 28, 2022 19:37:27 GMT -6
HarahanTim - Now in Covington!: Hmmm, I will say. that somewhere back there, we have stored the "Tums" icon, for those that give a prediction based on their "gut"!
Sept 24, 2022 11:38:12 GMT -6
T-man: Gully, no one here cares about your tender friggin' heart, ya big snoflake!!! :horns: :horns: :horns: :tongue:
Sept 24, 2022 10:24:18 GMT -6
