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hurricaner
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Irma Discussion Thread Aug 26, 2017 12:33:02 GMT -6 SKYSUMMIT, deauxb, and 1 more like this

Post by hurricaner on Aug 26, 2017 12:33:02 GMT -6

We have a new yellow that will emerge off the African coat on Sunday 0/20%.

A tropical wave over western Africa is forecast to emerge over the

far eastern Atlantic Ocean on Sunday. Environmental conditions are

forecast to be conducive for slow development by the middle of next

week while the wave moves westward about 20 mph.

* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...0 percent.

* Formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percent.

Last Edit: Aug 30, 2017 8:06:14 GMT -6 by SKYSUMMIT

GCWX Board Member

SKYSUMMIT President \| Director of Operations Administrator Posts - 63,212 Likes - 13,248 Social: - Facebook, Twitter	Irma Discussion Thread Aug 26, 2017 22:12:24 GMT -6 Select Post Deselect Post Link to Post Back to Top Post by SKYSUMMIT on Aug 26, 2017 22:12:24 GMT -6 The next contestant to play:
	Freezing Days for Winter 21/22: TBD Freezing Days for Winter 20/21: 24 Wunderground ID: KLAPONCH50 - Downtown Ponchatoula NWS COOP ID: 16-7425-08 CoCoRaHs ID: LA-TG-22

SKYSUMMIT President \| Director of Operations Administrator Posts - 63,212 Likes - 13,248 Social: - Facebook, Twitter	Irma Discussion Thread Aug 26, 2017 22:25:57 GMT -6 Select Post Deselect Post Link to Post Back to Top Post by SKYSUMMIT on Aug 26, 2017 22:25:57 GMT -6
	Freezing Days for Winter 21/22: TBD Freezing Days for Winter 20/21: 24 Wunderground ID: KLAPONCH50 - Downtown Ponchatoula NWS COOP ID: 16-7425-08 CoCoRaHs ID: LA-TG-22

SKYSUMMIT President \| Director of Operations Administrator Posts - 63,212 Likes - 13,248 Social: - Facebook, Twitter	Irma Discussion Thread Aug 26, 2017 22:45:01 GMT -6 mini likes this Select Post Deselect Post Link to Post Back to Top Post by SKYSUMMIT on Aug 26, 2017 22:45:01 GMT -6 Looks like this will be our next major hurricane, but also looks like it should stay out to sea.
	Last Edit: Aug 26, 2017 22:52:20 GMT -6 by SKYSUMMIT Freezing Days for Winter 21/22: TBD Freezing Days for Winter 20/21: 24 Wunderground ID: KLAPONCH50 - Downtown Ponchatoula NWS COOP ID: 16-7425-08 CoCoRaHs ID: LA-TG-22

hurricaner
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Irma Discussion Thread Aug 27, 2017 17:58:27 GMT -6

Post by hurricaner on Aug 27, 2017 17:58:27 GMT -6

The disturbance coming off Africa is now 0/40%.

A tropical wave located near the coast of western Africa is

producing a large area of disorganized showers and thunderstorms.

Environmental conditions appear conducive for gradual development

of this system while it moves westward at 15 to 20 mph over the

tropical Atlantic during the next several days.

* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.

* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...40 percent.

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hurricaner
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Irma Discussion Thread Aug 28, 2017 0:05:34 GMT -6

Post by hurricaner on Aug 28, 2017 0:05:34 GMT -6

The disturbance is now 10/50%.

A tropical wave located near the coast of western Africa is

producing a large area of showers and thunderstorms. Environmental

conditions are forecast to be conducive for gradual development of

this system while it moves westward at 15 to 20 mph over the

tropical Atlantic during the next several days.

* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.

* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...50 percent.

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nolasim
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Irma Discussion Thread Aug 28, 2017 6:36:51 GMT -6

Post by nolasim on Aug 28, 2017 6:36:51 GMT -6

A tropical wave and associated low pressure area located just

offshore of the coast of western Africa is producing a large area of

showers and thunderstorms. This system has become better organized

since yesterday, and a tropical depression could form in a few days

over the eastern Atlantic. The low is forecast to move westward at

15 to 20 mph over the tropical Atlantic during the next several

days. Regardless of development, heavy rain is possible in

portions of the Cabo Verde Islands through Wednesday.

* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...30 percent.

* Formation chance through 5 days...high...70 percent.

"Let's work the problem, people; don't make things worse by guessing!"

Gene Krantz, Flight Director, Apollo 13

SKYSUMMIT President \| Director of Operations Administrator Posts - 63,212 Likes - 13,248 Social: - Facebook, Twitter	Irma Discussion Thread Aug 28, 2017 7:39:01 GMT -6 Select Post Deselect Post Link to Post Back to Top Post by SKYSUMMIT on Aug 28, 2017 7:39:01 GMT -6 This is 93L now
	Freezing Days for Winter 21/22: TBD Freezing Days for Winter 20/21: 24 Wunderground ID: KLAPONCH50 - Downtown Ponchatoula NWS COOP ID: 16-7425-08 CoCoRaHs ID: LA-TG-22

DYLAN FEDERICO GCWX Supporter Meteorologist Posts - 17,510 Likes - 3,546 Social: - Facebook, Twitter	Irma Discussion Thread Aug 28, 2017 9:15:55 GMT -6 SKYSUMMIT, weatherman518, and 2 more like this Select Post Deselect Post Link to Post Back to Top Post by DYLAN FEDERICO on Aug 28, 2017 9:15:55 GMT -6 This is looking like the real deal, and does anyone really think its going to gain as much latitude as the models show? Go look at the beginning of the Harvey thread. lol
	Twitter: @dylanfedericowx Facebook: Meteorologist Dylan Federico WINK Meteorologist

Siker Category 3 Posts - 760 Likes - 331 Social: - Twitter	Irma Discussion Thread Aug 28, 2017 9:43:15 GMT -6 via mobile Select Post Deselect Post Link to Post Back to Top Post by Siker on Aug 28, 2017 9:43:15 GMT -6 Aug 28, 2017 9:15:55 GMT -6 DYLAN FEDERICO said: This is looking like the real deal, and does anyone really think its going to gain as much latitude as the models show? Go look at the beginning of the Harvey thread. lol

DYLAN FEDERICO
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Irma Discussion Thread Aug 28, 2017 10:18:26 GMT -6 via mobile Siker likes this

Post by DYLAN FEDERICO on Aug 28, 2017 10:18:26 GMT -6

^^^ See. Years of looking at the weather every day is starting to pay off. lol I've been saying it for months now but the stronger than normal subtropical ridge in the Atlantic would lead to more threats this year. Got to watch this one.

Twitter: @dylanfedericowx
Facebook: Meteorologist Dylan Federico
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SKYSUMMIT
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Irma Discussion Thread Aug 28, 2017 10:41:58 GMT -6

Post by SKYSUMMIT on Aug 28, 2017 10:41:58 GMT -6

 * ATLANTIC     SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST          *
                    * IR SAT DATA PROXY USED,      OHC AVAILABLE     *
                    *  INVEST      AL932017  08/28/17  12 UTC        *

TIME (HR)          0     6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72    84    96   108   120
V (KT) NO LAND    25    26    27    28    31    39    48    58    65    71    78    81    85
V (KT) LAND       25    26    27    28    31    39    48    58    65    71    78    81    85
V (KT) LGEM       25    25    25    26    26    28    32    38    46    54    60    64    68
Storm Type      TROP  TROP  TROP  TROP  TROP  TROP  TROP  TROP  TROP  TROP  TROP  TROP  TROP

SHEAR (KT)        27    30    31    26    20    13    12     4     4     3     4     7    11
SHEAR ADJ (KT)    -4    -8    -7    -6    -4    -2    -1     0     0     0     1    -1    -1
SHEAR DIR         64    66    69    71    64    46    56   248   307   201   321   306   306
SST (C)         28.5  28.7  28.8  28.8  28.7  28.5  28.1  27.4  26.8  26.9  26.9  26.6  26.5
POT. INT. (KT)   145   147   148   148   146   143   138   130   123   123   122   118   118
ADJ. POT. INT.   147   146   147   146   142   139   134   126   117   115   112   108   109
200 MB T (C)   -53.8 -53.5 -53.7 -53.6 -53.6 -53.9 -54.1 -54.0 -54.2 -53.7 -53.8 -53.3 -53.4
200 MB VXT (C)   0.0   0.0   0.1   0.1   0.0   0.1   0.1   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.3   0.3   0.4
TH_E DEV (C)       7     7     6     6     6     6     6     6     6     6     6     6     6
700-500 MB RH     78    78    78    78    79    78    75    70    64    60    57    58    54
MODEL VTX (KT)    12    12    12    11    13    13    13    15    16    18    19    18    20
850 MB ENV VOR    63    54    47    46    54    44    32    58    61    62    52    56    56
200 MB DIV        21    34    23    12    19    48    34    44    34    19    19    25    10
700-850 TADV      -3    -8   -11    -6     0     0     2     5     0     0     9     2     3
LAND (KM)        409   512   597   654   720   841  1010  1258  1557  1792  1984  2118  2173
LAT (DEG N)     11.5  11.8  12.3  12.8  13.3  14.2  15.4  16.7  17.6  17.9  18.1  18.6  19.2
LONG(DEG W)     20.5  21.5  22.4  23.2  24.0  25.3  26.9  29.1  31.8  34.0  35.8  37.1  38.7
STM SPEED (KT)    12    10    10     9     8     9    11    13    13    10     7     7     9
HEAT CONTENT       6     7     9    12    20    30    25    10     5     6     1     7     7

  FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM      INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):270/ 15      CX,CY: -14/  0
  T-12 MAX WIND:  25            PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB):  421  (MEAN=618)
  GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV.  50-200 KM RAD:  20.1 (MEAN=14.5)
  % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C    50-200 KM RAD:  43.0 (MEAN=65.0)
  PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 55 KT IN 48 HR):            0.5

                        INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE
                         6   12   18   24   36   48   60   72   84   96  108  120
                        ----------------------------------------------------------
  SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE     1.   2.   3.   4.   6.   8.   9.  10.  11.  12.  13.  13.
  SST POTENTIAL          0.   0.   1.   2.   6.  12.  18.  22.  25.  28.  30.  31.
  VERTICAL SHEAR MAG    -0.  -1.  -1.  -2.  -2.  -2.  -1.   0.   1.   3.   4.   3.
  VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ     1.   1.   2.   2.   4.   4.   5.   5.   4.   4.   3.   3.
  VERTICAL SHEAR DIR     0.   1.   2.   3.   5.   8.   9.   9.   8.   8.   8.   8.
  PERSISTENCE           -0.  -1.  -1.  -1.  -1.  -1.  -1.  -1.  -0.   0.   0.   1.
  200/250 MB TEMP.      -0.  -0.  -1.  -1.  -1.  -1.  -1.  -1.  -1.  -0.   0.   0.
  THETA_E EXCESS        -0.  -0.  -0.  -0.  -1.  -1.  -1.  -1.  -2.  -2.  -2.  -2.
  700-500 MB RH         -0.  -1.  -1.  -1.  -3.  -4.  -6.  -7.  -7.  -7.  -6.  -5.
  MODEL VTX TENDENCY    -0.  -0.  -1.   0.  -0.   0.   2.   3.   4.   5.   3.   4.
  850 MB ENV VORTICITY   0.   0.   0.   0.   1.   1.   1.   1.   1.   2.   2.   2.
  200 MB DIVERGENCE     -0.  -0.  -0.  -0.  -0.  -0.  -0.  -0.  -0.  -0.  -0.   0.
  850-700 T ADVEC        0.  -0.  -0.  -0.  -0.  -1.  -1.  -1.  -1.  -1.  -0.  -0.
  ZONAL STORM MOTION    -0.   0.   0.   1.   2.   2.   2.   2.   3.   3.   4.   4.
  STEERING LEVEL PRES    0.   0.   1.   1.   2.   2.   1.   2.   2.   2.   2.   2.
  DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK  -0.  -0.  -0.  -0.  -0.  -0.  -0.  -0.  -0.  -0.  -0.  -0.
  GOES PREDICTORS       -0.  -1.  -1.  -1.  -2.  -2.  -3.  -3.  -3.  -3.  -2.  -2.
  OCEAN HEAT CONTENT    -0.  -0.  -0.  -0.  -0.  -1.  -1.  -1.  -1.  -1.  -1.  -0.
                        ----------------------------------------------------------
  TOTAL CHANGE           1.   2.   3.   7.  14.  23.  33.  40.  46.  53.  56.  60.

                CURRENT MAX WIND (KT):   25. LAT, LON:   11.5    20.5

      ** 2017 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL932017 INVEST     08/28/17  12 UTC **
 (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h)
 
     Predictor             Value   RI Predictor Range  Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution
 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT):     0.0     -49.5  to   33.0       0.60         999.0
 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) :    26.7      30.1  to    2.9       0.12         999.0
 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/cm2) :    10.8       0.0  to  156.2       0.07         999.0
 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP  :  9999.0       2.4  to   -3.0     999.00         999.0
 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP :   999.0      36.6  to    2.8     999.00         999.0
 MAXIMUM WIND (kt)     :    25.0      22.5  to  121.0       0.07         999.0
 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT)   :   120.4      28.4  to  139.6       0.83         999.0
 D200 (10**7s-1)       :    21.8     -29.7  to  181.5       0.24         999.0
 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (w/m2):    35.4     961.4  to  -67.1       0.90         999.0
 % AREA WITH TPW <45 mm:     0.0     100.0  to    0.0       1.00         999.0
 
 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times sample mean ( 5.4%)
 SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times sample mean (11.5%)
 SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times sample mean ( 7.4%)
 SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times sample mean ( 4.3%)
 SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times sample mean ( 2.8%)
 SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times sample mean ( 5.1%)
 SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times sample mean ( 5.3%)
 SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times sample mean ( 6.0%)
    
Matrix of RI probabilities
------------------------------------------------------------------------------
  RI (kt / h)  | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48  |65/72
------------------------------------------------------------------------------
   SHIPS-RII:   999.0%  999.0%  999.0%  999.0%  999.0%  999.0%  999.0%  999.0%
    Logistic:   999.0%  999.0%  999.0%  999.0%  999.0%  999.0%  999.0%  999.0%
    Bayesian:   999.0%  999.0%  999.0%  999.0%  999.0%  999.0%  999.0%  999.0%
   Consensus:   999.0%  999.0%  999.0%  999.0%  999.0%  999.0%  999.0%  999.0%

** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL932017 INVEST     08/28/2017  12 UTC **
TIME(HR)   0-12  12-24(0-24)  24-36(0-36)  36-48(0-48)
CLIMO(%)     0      0(  0)       0(  0)       0(  0)     <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY
PROB(%)      0      0(  0)       0(  0)       0(  0)     <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY)

** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE **
      TIME (HR)      0     6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72    84    96   108   120
>24HR AGO (DSHIPS)  25    26    27    28    31    39    48    58    65    71    78    81    85
 18HR AGO           25    24    25    26    29    37    46    56    63    69    76    79    83
 12HR AGO           25    22    21    22    25    33    42    52    59    65    72    75    79
  6HR AGO           25    19    16    15    18    26    35    45    52    58    65    68    72
      NOW                              CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT
  IN  6HR                              INTENSITY IN  6HR < 83 KT
  IN 12HR                              INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT

Freezing Days for Winter 21/22: TBD
Freezing Days for Winter 20/21: 24
Wunderground ID: KLAPONCH50 - Downtown Ponchatoula
NWS COOP ID: 16-7425-08
CoCoRaHs ID: LA-TG-22

SKYSUMMIT President \| Director of Operations Administrator Posts - 63,212 Likes - 13,248 Social: - Facebook, Twitter	Irma Discussion Thread Aug 28, 2017 14:27:48 GMT -6 weatherman518 likes this Select Post Deselect Post Link to Post Back to Top Post by SKYSUMMIT on Aug 28, 2017 14:27:48 GMT -6 This is what the EURO does with 93L...major hurricane bearing down on the Bahamas:
	Freezing Days for Winter 21/22: TBD Freezing Days for Winter 20/21: 24 Wunderground ID: KLAPONCH50 - Downtown Ponchatoula NWS COOP ID: 16-7425-08 CoCoRaHs ID: LA-TG-22

cajungal Category 5 Posts - 4,176 Likes - 2,184	Irma Discussion Thread Aug 28, 2017 14:28:48 GMT -6 via mobile Select Post Deselect Post Link to Post Back to Top Post by cajungal on Aug 28, 2017 14:28:48 GMT -6 Aug 28, 2017 14:27:48 GMT -6 SKYSUMMIT said: This is what the EURO does with 93L...major hurricane bearing down on the Bahamas: Just hope it stays out the gulf.
	60 miles southwest of New Orleans) Thibodaux, La

SKYSUMMIT President \| Director of Operations Administrator Posts - 63,212 Likes - 13,248 Social: - Facebook, Twitter	Irma Discussion Thread Aug 28, 2017 14:30:50 GMT -6 Select Post Deselect Post Link to Post Back to Top Post by SKYSUMMIT on Aug 28, 2017 14:30:50 GMT -6
	Freezing Days for Winter 21/22: TBD Freezing Days for Winter 20/21: 24 Wunderground ID: KLAPONCH50 - Downtown Ponchatoula NWS COOP ID: 16-7425-08 CoCoRaHs ID: LA-TG-22

Irma Discussion Thread

Post by hurricaner on Aug 26, 2017 12:33:02 GMT -6

Post by SKYSUMMIT on Aug 26, 2017 22:12:24 GMT -6

Post by SKYSUMMIT on Aug 26, 2017 22:25:57 GMT -6

Post by SKYSUMMIT on Aug 26, 2017 22:45:01 GMT -6

Post by hurricaner on Aug 27, 2017 17:58:27 GMT -6

Post by hurricaner on Aug 28, 2017 0:05:34 GMT -6

Post by nolasim on Aug 28, 2017 6:36:51 GMT -6

Post by SKYSUMMIT on Aug 28, 2017 7:39:01 GMT -6

Post by DYLAN FEDERICO on Aug 28, 2017 9:15:55 GMT -6

Post by Siker on Aug 28, 2017 9:43:15 GMT -6

Post by DYLAN FEDERICO on Aug 28, 2017 10:18:26 GMT -6

Post by SKYSUMMIT on Aug 28, 2017 10:41:58 GMT -6

Post by SKYSUMMIT on Aug 28, 2017 14:27:48 GMT -6

Post by cajungal on Aug 28, 2017 14:28:48 GMT -6

Post by SKYSUMMIT on Aug 28, 2017 14:30:50 GMT -6

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