Post by DYLAN FEDERICO on Aug 28, 2017 9:15:55 GMT -6
This is looking like the real deal, and does anyone really think its going to gain as much latitude as the models show? Go look at the beginning of the Harvey thread. lol
This is looking like the real deal, and does anyone really think its going to gain as much latitude as the models show? Go look at the beginning of the Harvey thread. lol
Post by DYLAN FEDERICO on Aug 28, 2017 10:18:26 GMT -6
^^^ See. Years of looking at the weather every day is starting to pay off. lol I've been saying it for months now but the stronger than normal subtropical ridge in the Atlantic would lead to more threats this year. Got to watch this one.
FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):270/ 15 CX,CY: -14/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 421 (MEAN=618) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 20.1 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 43.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 55 KT IN 48 HR): 0.5
** 2017 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL932017 INVEST 08/28/17 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h)
Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.60 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 26.7 30.1 to 2.9 0.12 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/cm2) : 10.8 0.0 to 156.2 0.07 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 9999.0 2.4 to -3.0 999.00 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 999.0 36.6 to 2.8 999.00 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (kt) : 25.0 22.5 to 121.0 0.07 999.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 120.4 28.4 to 139.6 0.83 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 21.8 -29.7 to 181.5 0.24 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (w/m2): 35.4 961.4 to -67.1 0.90 999.0 % AREA WITH TPW <45 mm: 0.0 100.0 to 0.0 1.00 999.0
SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times sample mean ( 5.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times sample mean (11.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times sample mean ( 7.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times sample mean ( 4.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times sample mean ( 2.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times sample mean ( 5.1%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times sample mean ( 5.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times sample mean ( 6.0%)