Attempting to modify hurricanes

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geo2 - Bush/Waldheim Metroplex
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Attempting to modify hurricanes Oct 7, 2017 15:27:01 GMT -6 via mobile

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Post by geo2 - Bush/Waldheim Metroplex on Oct 7, 2017 15:27:01 GMT -6

Many years ago I took a Risk Asssessment seminar with Dr Warner North, a well known expert in the field of Risk Assessment. During the class, he used the example of the US Navy seeding hurricanes in the 1960’s in an attempt to effect their intensity. He claimed that they had some success, but that that there was too great a risk of making matters worse. He was using the example to highlight the risk case of low probability but high impact in a Risk Assessment matrix. He said that they ceased the experiment because of the chance of unintended consequences.
Given 50 years of advancement in technology, meteorology, modelling, etc., it strikes me that it would be awfully tempting to try that experiment again. Does anyone know if there’s been any modern attempt to modify hurricanes?

SKYSUMMIT Administrator President \| Director of Operations Posts: 64,788 Location: Hammond, LA Staff Member	Attempting to modify hurricanes Oct 7, 2017 19:17:02 GMT -6 Jess23 likes this Quote Select Post Deselect Post Link to Post Back to Top Post by SKYSUMMIT on Oct 7, 2017 19:17:02 GMT -6 I heard or read something years ago about dropping some kind of powder in the storm, but I can't remember if they had results or even if they even tried it.
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geo2 - Bush/Waldheim Metroplex
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Attempting to modify hurricanes Oct 8, 2017 8:35:18 GMT -6 via mobile SKYSUMMIT likes this

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Post by geo2 - Bush/Waldheim Metroplex on Oct 8, 2017 8:35:18 GMT -6

Oct 7, 2017 19:17:02 GMT -6 SKYSUMMIT said:

I heard or read something years ago about dropping some kind of powder in the storm, but I can't remember if they had results or even if they even tried it.

According to Dr North, they had some success. I believe it was something like silver nitrate that they seeded the storms with. I’ll see if I can find some resources on the internet and post here.

geo2 - Bush/Waldheim Metroplex
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Attempting to modify hurricanes Oct 8, 2017 8:47:24 GMT -6 via mobile

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Post by geo2 - Bush/Waldheim Metroplex on Oct 8, 2017 8:47:24 GMT -6

Looks like they seeded with silver iodide and what was initially thought of as successful results were later determined to be natural processes. My original question still remains, though. Given the advancements in many fields, have modern attempts been made?

en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Project_Stormfury

coffeecups
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Attempting to modify hurricanes Oct 27, 2017 21:30:44 GMT -6

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Post by coffeecups on Oct 27, 2017 21:30:44 GMT -6

Oct 7, 2017 19:17:02 GMT -6 SKYSUMMIT said:

I heard or read something years ago about dropping some kind of powder in the storm, but I can't remember if they had results or even if they even tried it.

I also heard this in the late 60's or early 70;s, but don't know how successful it was.

coffeecups GCWX Supporter Posts: 812	Attempting to modify hurricanes Oct 27, 2017 21:32:26 GMT -6 Quote Select Post Deselect Post Link to Post Back to Top Post by coffeecups on Oct 27, 2017 21:32:26 GMT -6 I seem to remember the product being silver nitrate, but there may have been others.

hurricaner
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Attempting to modify hurricanes Jan 4, 2018 14:46:08 GMT -6 Jess23 likes this

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Post by hurricaner on Jan 4, 2018 14:46:08 GMT -6

The whole idea was to seed clouds in the outer bands with silver iodide which would cause the clouds to increase and cutoff the flow to the eyewall storms. This would cause the eye to increase and decrease the winds (much like eyewall replacement we see in strong hurricanes). They had some success, but after a day or so the winds would go back up. The biggest fear was that they did not know how this would effect the motion of the storm, possibly turning it in a different direction. There was also the expense and could only work with hurricanes with a certain type of structure.

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robertclair Tropical Low Posts: 4	Attempting to modify hurricanes Apr 13, 2019 0:54:05 GMT -6 Quote Select Post Deselect Post Link to Post Back to Top Post by robertclair on Apr 13, 2019 0:54:05 GMT -6 That sounds so amazing.

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Zack Fradella: Yea, Lezak had a paper peer reviewed and published a year or so ago. Nov 5, 2022 9:03:24 GMT -6

stormydds: Thanks for your response. I felt that is the case. that's too bad. Has there been any peer reviewed papers on the LRC hypothesis? Nov 4, 2022 14:01:51 GMT -6

Zack Fradella: Not sure, the LRC is something that takes a lot of work to follow and keep up with. It's not as easy as looking at the parameters and making a forecast. This deters many from even giving it a chance. Also, there is some doubt from the weather world. Nov 4, 2022 3:38:49 GMT -6

stormydds: Zack, a friend had a meeting in Lafayette which Rob Perillo spoke.He asked him why the LRC is not used to forecast hurricanes by NOAA.His answer was that Lezak won't share the info.I saw the podcast you and David made with Gary.He seemed open.What gives? Nov 3, 2022 14:39:19 GMT -6

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