Tropical Weather Outlook NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 200 AM EDT Mon Oct 23 2017
For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:
1. A broad area of low pressure is expected to form over the southwestern Caribbean Sea during the next few days. Slow development of this system is possible thereafter while it moves northwestward to northward. * Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent. * Formation chance through 5 days...medium...40 percent.
Last Edit: Oct 28, 2017 20:30:38 GMT -6 by SKYSUMMIT
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Tropical Weather Outlook NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 200 PM EDT Thu Oct 26 2017
For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:
1. Disorganized cloudiness and thunderstorms over the western Caribbean Sea are associated with a trough of low pressure. Environmental conditions are expected to be conducive for some development on Friday and Saturday as the system moves slowly northward over the northwestern Caribbean Sea. Strong upper-level winds associated with an approaching cold front will make conditions less favorable by Sunday. Regardless of development, this system is expected to produce locally heavy rainfall over the Cayman Islands, Jamaica, and portions of Cuba during the next day or two. These rains are forecast to spread northward across portions of South Florida and the Keys on Saturday, and over the northwestern Bahamas Saturday night and Sunday. * Formation chance through 48 hours...low...30 percent. * Formation chance through 5 days...medium...40 percent.
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Tropical Weather Outlook NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 800 AM EDT Fri Oct 27 2017
For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:
Shower and thunderstorm activity has increased and become more concentrated in association with a trough of low pressure over the northwestern Caribbean Sea. Environmental conditions are expected to be conducive for development today and Saturday, and a tropical depression could form as the system moves northward over the northwestern Caribbean Sea. Increasing upper-level winds will make conditions less favorable when the system moves north of Cuba and merges with a cold front on Sunday. Interests in the Cayman Islands and central and western Cuba should monitor the progress of this system. Regardless of development, this disturbance is expected to produce locally heavy rainfall over the Cayman Islands, Jamaica, and portions of Cuba during the next day or two. These rains are forecast to spread northward across portions of South Florida and the Keys on Saturday, and over the northwestern Bahamas Saturday night and Sunday. An Air Force Reserve reconnaissance aircraft is scheduled to investigate this system this afternoon, if necessary. * Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...60 percent. * Formation chance through 5 days...medium...60 percent.
Post by hurricaner on Oct 27, 2017 11:47:17 GMT -6
Now at 80% and the recon plane is heading out to the system.
Tropical Weather Outlook NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 200 PM EDT Fri Oct 27 2017
For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:
Showers and thunderstorms associated with a broad area of low pressure located over the northwestern Caribbean Sea are beginning to show signs of organization. Environmental conditions are expected to be conducive for additional development, and a tropical depression or tropical storm is likely to form later today or Saturday as the system moves northward over the northwestern Caribbean Sea before turning northeastward by late Saturday. Tropical storm watches and warnings may be needed for the Cayman Islands, central and western Cuba, and the central and northwestern Bahamas later today or tonight. Interests in the Florida Keys and South Florida should also monitor the progress of this disturbance. An Air Force Reserve reconnaissance aircraft is en route to investigate this system.
Regardless of development, this disturbance is expected to produce locally heavy rainfall over the Cayman Islands, Jamaica, and portions of Cuba during the next day or two. Rainfall is also forecast to spread northward across portions of South Florida and the Keys on Saturday, and over the northwestern and central Bahamas Saturday night and Sunday. * Formation chance through 48 hours...high...80 percent. * Formation chance through 5 days...high...80 percent.
Future Philipe is looking better this morning with a better circulation developing to the south of the Isle of Pines, heading towards Cuba, FL Straights and northern Bahamas.
Tropical Storm Philippe Intermediate Advisory Number 5A NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL182017 800 PM EDT Sat Oct 28 2017
...PHILIPPE MOVING OVER THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA... ...HEAVY RAINS OCCURRING OVER CENTRAL CUBA AND SPREADING NORTHWARD ACROSS THE FLORIDA KEYS AND SOUTH FLORIDA...
SUMMARY OF 800 PM EDT...0000 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...23.7N 82.5W ABOUT 50 MI...80 KM N OF HAVANA CUBA ABOUT 75 MI...120 KM SW OF KEY WEST FLORIDA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 5 DEGREES AT 28 MPH...45 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1002 MB...29.59 INCHES
Tropical Storm Philippe Advisory Number 6 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL182017 1100 PM EDT Sat Oct 28 2017
...CENTER OF POORLY ORGANIZED PHILIPPE APPROACHING THE FLORIDA KEYS... ...HEAVY RAINS OCCURRING OVER FROM CENTRAL CUBA ACROSS SOUTHERN FLORIDA TO THE NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS...
SUMMARY OF 1100 PM EDT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION ----------------------------------------------- LOCATION...24.8N 82.1W ABOUT 25 MI...40 KM NW OF KEY WEST FLORIDA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNE OR 15 DEGREES AT 24 MPH...39 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1003 MB...29.62 INCHES