Post by HarahanTim - Now in Covington! on Jan 7, 2018 5:20:15 GMT -6
Flood Watch National Weather Service New Orleans LA 437 AM CST Sun Jan 7 2018
...Flash Flooding Possible...
...FLASH FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT FROM THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY MORNING...
The National Weather Service in New Orleans has issued a
* Flash Flood Watch FOR portions of southeast Louisiana and Mississippi, including the following areas, in southeast Louisiana, Ascension, Assumption, East Baton Rouge, East Feliciana, Iberville, Livingston, Lower Jefferson, Lower Lafourche, Lower Plaquemines, Lower St. Bernard, Lower Terrebonne, Northern Tangipahoa, Orleans, Pointe Coupee, Southern Tangipahoa, St. Charles, St. Helena, St. James, St. John The Baptist, St. Tammany, Upper Jefferson, Upper Lafourche, Upper Plaquemines, Upper St. Bernard, Upper Terrebonne, Washington, West Baton Rouge, and West Feliciana. In Mississippi, Amite, Hancock, Harrison, Jackson, Pearl River, Pike, Walthall, and Wilkinson.
* from this evening through Monday morning
* Rain rates of 1 to 2 inches per hour. Accumulations of 2 to 4 inches with isolated higher possible.
* Flash flooding of low lying areas and along area streams and bayous.
.Moisture will begin surging into the area today. A strengthening upper level system moving into the region tonight and Monday will temporarily slow as it tracks through. The combination of those 2 will likely result in a period of heavy rainfall. Flash flooding of poorly drained areas and along the area streams and bayous will be possible.
A Flash Flood Watch means that conditions may develop that lead to flash flooding. Flash flooding is a very dangerous situation.
You should monitor later forecasts and be prepared to take action should Flash Flood Warnings be issued.
So the Saints victory over the Panthers should end around 6:45-7:00, meaning I’m walking from the Dome to my truck and then driving home from then until about 8.
Potential for storms likely at that time?
The current HRRR, indicates you should be fine. The first wave of "heavy stuff", appears to approach south Louisiana and southern Mississippi, in the wee hours of the morning. Here is a shot, as of now, for about 8:00PM
This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of Southeast Louisiana...South Mississippi and the adjacent coastal waters.
A Flash Flood Watch is in effect for tonight. Rain and a few thunderstorms will develop late this evening and continue through the overnight hours. The rain may be heavy at times late tonight and early Monday.
Strong thunderstorms will be possible late tonight into Monday morning. An isolated severe thunderstorm will also be possible during this same time frame.
Small craft advisories have been posted for all of the coastal waters tonight.
.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Monday through Saturday
A flash flood watch will remain in effect through noon Monday. Heavy rain will be possible at times Monday morning. An isolated strong or severe thunderstorm will also be possible Monday morning.
Small craft advisories will remain in effect for all coastal waters through Monday.
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service New Orleans LA 743 PM CST Sun Jan 7 2018
...SOUNDING DISCUSSION... Humidity/dewpoint observations failed at just 800 mb with the first release. Given the forecast tonight opted for a second release, which has come in complete. Onshore flow today has brought PW up to 1 inch, which is just above average and will continue to come up overnight. The southeast wind this evening reached 35 kts at just 900 feet and had a max of 40 kts in the core of the low level jet at 2000 feet (950mb). Winds then veer to southwest in an inversion through the 850 to 750 mb layer with the cloud deck in there at about 7000 feet. There is another elevated inversion at 430 mb. Surface to 6 km shear is about 50 kts, but sfc to 3 km SRH is 600 m2/s2. There is little to no CAPE in the profile at the moment, though the saturated Gulf air at low levels will be able to create some instability later tonight. Indeed the LCH sounding has a few hundred J/KG of CAPE. Severe threat is overall very low, but some embedded strong to minimally severe storms are possible early tomorrow as more of the narrow warm sector moves ashore. This includes a chance for waterspouts over marine areas. Locally heavy rain could also be a concern from stronger storms.
Severe Thunderstorm Warning National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX 947 PM CST SUN JAN 7 2018
The National Weather Service in League City has issued a
* Severe Thunderstorm Warning for... Northeastern Austin County in southeastern Texas... Central Waller County in southeastern Texas... Northwestern Harris County in southeastern Texas...
* Until 1030 PM CST.
* At 947 PM CST, a severe thunderstorm was located 8 miles east of Bellville, moving east at 25 mph.
HAZARD...60 mph wind gusts and quarter size hail.
IMPACT...Hail damage to vehicles is expected. Expect wind damage to roofs, siding, and trees.
* Locations impacted include... Hockley, Waller, Pine Island and Monaville.
For your protection move to an interior room on the lowest floor of a building.
Large hail and damaging winds and continuous cloud to ground lightning is occurring with this storm. Move indoors immediately. Lightning is one of nature's leading killers. Remember, if you can hear thunder, you are close enough to be struck by lightning.
Special Weather Statement National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX 1014 PM CST SUN JAN 7 2018
TXZ199-213-080500- Harris TX-Montgomery TX- 1014 PM CST SUN JAN 7 2018
...STRONG THUNDERSTORMS OVER NORTHERN HARRIS AND SOUTHERN MONTGOMERY COUNTY...
At 1013 PM CST, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm near Hooks Airport, or near The Woodlands, moving northeast at 25 mph.
Half inch hail and winds in excess of 30 mph will be possible with this storm.
Locations impacted include... Tomball, The Woodlands, Spring, Oak Ridge North, Shenandoah, Splendora, Patton Village, Roman Forest, Woodbranch, Stagecoach, Woodloch, The Woodlands Pavillion, Hooks Airport, Chateau Woods, Splashtown, Willowbrook, Porter Heights, New Caney and Porter.
Frequent cloud to ground lightning is occurring with this storm. Lightning can strike 10 miles away from a thunderstorm. Seek a safe shelter inside a building or vehicle.