Winter Weather Threat 01/16-01/18

I hope it is right. Of course I never stock faith on any models til about a day out. Everything was showing dry for the Grand Isle snow event until a day out. I am still so in awe over the last event Dec 8th. Would love to see snow again this winter. Would be even better if it wasn't at night when everyone is settling for bed. But if we did get snow I would be the crazy one running around outside in my pjs.

Most of this is likely virga, but I have seen some sleet and mix reports pop in and out in south Arkansas. I don't recall many models forecasting this moisture.

Me neither.  Interesting 

Funny, both the Euro and GFS did on the 12th for a run or two, but it disappeared since then.

Levi just added it to TT on the 10th.

Special Weather Statement
Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Mobile AL
354 PM CST Sun Jan 14 2018

ALZ051>060-261>266-FLZ201>206-MSZ067-075-076-078-079-151200-
Choctaw-Washington-Clarke-Wilcox-Monroe-Conecuh-Butler-Crenshaw-
Escambia-Covington-Mobile Inland-Baldwin Inland-Mobile Central-
Baldwin Central-Mobile Coastal-Baldwin Coastal-Escambia Inland-
Escambia Coastal-Santa Rosa Inland-Santa Rosa Coastal-
Okaloosa Inland-Okaloosa Coastal-Wayne-Perry-Greene-Stone-George-
Including the cities of Butler, Lisman, Silas, Chatom, Millry,
Grove Hill, Jackson, Thomasville, Camden, Pine Hill, Homewood,
Monroeville, Evergreen, Greenville, Brantley, Luverne, Atmore,
Brewton, Flomaton, Andalusia, Opp, Citronelle, Saraland,
Stockton, Mobile, Prichard, Theodore, Bay Minette, Daphne,
Fairhope, Foley, Spanish Fort, Bayou La Batre, Dauphin Island,
Grand Bay, Fort Morgan, Gulf Shores, Orange Beach, Century,
Molino, Walnut Hill, Beulah, Ensley, Fort Pickens, Pensacola,
Pensacola Beach, Perdido Bay, Jay, Milton, Bagdad, Gulf Breeze,
Navarre, Crestview, Destin, Eglin AFB, Fort Walton Beach,
Niceville, Seminole, Valparaiso, Wright, Waynesboro, Beaumont,
New Augusta, Richton, Leakesville, McLain, Wiggins, and Lucedale
354 PM CST Sun Jan 14 2018

...MUCH COLDER TEMPERATURES RETURNING LATE TUESDAY THROUGH
THURSDAY WITH A LIGHT WINTRY MIX OF PRECIPITATION ALSO POSSIBLE
LATE TUESDAY AFTERNOON INTO TUESDAY NIGHT...

The next surge of very cold air is expected to move across
southeast Mississippi, southwest and south central Alabama and the
northwest Florida Panhandle Tuesday afternoon into Tuesday
evening. A zone of increased moisture and lift associated with an
approaching upper level system will also move from northwest to
southeast across our region, bringing a low chance of precipitation
to our local area Tuesday afternoon into Tuesday night. The
timing of this system and the arrival of the cold air will support
a low chance of a wintry mix of light rain and snow, and possibly
a few sleet pellets late Tuesday afternoon into Tuesday evening,
before precipitation potentially changes to light snow before
ending late Tuesday night into very early Wednesday morning.
Moisture with this system looks to be limited, so no significant
accumulations of wintry precipitation are currently expected.
However, a very light dusting of snow cannot be ruled out across
portions of the region before precipitation ends early Wednesday
morning.

The very cold airmass will otherwise settle over the area
Tuesday night through Thursday. A hard freeze with lows in the
upper teens to around 20 degrees looks to potentially impact
interior portions of southeast Mississippi and southwest Alabama
late Tuesday night into early Wednesday morning, with readings
averaging through the 20s across the remainder of the region.
Elevated northerly winds may also produce dangerous wind chills in
the single digits across interior locations Tuesday night into
early Wednesday morning. Highs on Wednesday are not expected to
get out of the 30s across most interior locations. By Wednesday
night, a hard freeze with low temperatures in the mid teens to
around 20 degrees may impact many locations along and north of
Interstate 10. Highs are expected to moderate back into the 40s
Thursday. Hard Freeze Watches and Wind Chill Advisories may become
necessary by Monday.

Residents across the region should make preparations for cold
temperatures late Tuesday into Thursday and also continue to
monitor the latest forecasts regarding the potential for light
wintry precipitation late Tuesday afternoon into Tuesday night.
Stay tuned for additional updates from the National Weather
Service in Mobile and your favorite local media sources regarding
this developing weather situation.